COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[parochial boy]

Important data points here:

Sweeping testing of the entire crew of the coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt may have revealed a clue about the pandemic: The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say.
...
The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.

Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt-idUSKCN21Y2GB

this is around the same % that we got in the italian town of Vo'

I'm not sure if the insane asymptomatic rate on this thing is a good or bad thing. On one hand it's good because it means the mortality rate is extremely inflated and it's probably actually more like the flu than SARS in regards to danger, on the other hand it makes the virus harder to control and record.

IDK whether halfish asymptomatic cases (showing up pretty consistently now between Italy, Iceland, the Diamond Princess and now the Theodore Roosevelt) is a good thing or a bad thing?  It would lower the fatality rate of course,  but only by about 1/2, which if true takes from perhaps 10X more dangerous than seasonal flu to perhaps 5X.  Still quite scary. The flip side is that it makes this thing extremely hard to contain.  If it was 10X more dangerous than flu but only people who already had a high fever were contagious, it could be a lot easier to contain with health screenings.

IMO you either want to hope there are 10 or 100 contagious asymptomatic cases per person who gets sick (to massively drive down the fatality rate and quickly achieve herd immunity) massively or none (so that you can control it with fever screenings).  Halfish doesn't seem to help.

Think it's worth pointing out that the big asymptomatic case numbers that were being reported from the Diamon Princess were at the time of testing. If you follow up from the perspective of several weeks later, then, the number of asymptomatic cases was... signficantly lower.

As much as anything, there have been 12 deaths from 712 reported cases so far. Seeing as it's pretty unlikely that there were a huge number of non-identified cases on the ship, I feel that should probably call into question some of the more optimistic assessments of what the fataility rate for Covid is.

That population skewed older than average which would almost certainly cause a higher mortality rate. Also it’s important to note that the patients on the cruise ship may have been exposed to higher initial viral load as compared to the general population (outside of hospitals)
Taking this into account, I still would believe the true mortality rate is around 1%.

Probably yes. I wouldn't like to guess myself, but from what I've seen, the mid point of the majority of estimates of the moratility rate is around 1% or slightly lower. It's just more a note of caution to the people who have been repeating the rate from that one study from Germany just because it seems to show what they want it to show.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

All this protest is going to do is ensure Whitmer extends the Stay At Home order which she is saying she is most likely going to do

[jimrtex]

All this protest is going to do is ensure Whitmer extends the Stay At Home order which she is saying she is most likely going to do

At least she would be relying on science to do so. Correct?

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/RonaldKlain/status/1250911264152354824

[Virginiá]

Gretchen Whitmer banned Michiganders from traveling to their upstate cottages, while permitting residents of other states to do so (if "permitted" to do so by their state). She banned use of motors on boats. She banned selling of lawn care equipment. She banned selling of house paint. Several sheriffs have said that they won't enforce her diktats.

I do agree that some of her restrictions are too strict, unnecessarily so even, such as not allowing a store that is already open anyway to sell certain things just because it's in another department.

That being said, it doesn't change the fact that the protest was just another partisan event organized and bankrolled by Republican donors/operatives. The topic of the protest could just as easily been anything else. So whatever message they were trying to send is cheapened. Why should Whitmer care when these are the same people who would stomp their boots outside the capitol for virtually any other action she takes?

In the end, the goal here is safety. Maybe some governors take it too far, and some don't go far enough, but the intention isn't the conversion to communist authoritarian state or whatever conspiracy theories the right is peddling now.

[wbrocks67]

The powerpoint is useless if we don't ramp up testing. And Trump clearly doesn't care about testing. So, that leaves us... nowhere

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Let's be real, Whitmer isn't being attacked because of her coronavirus policies (which are completely reasonable), she's being attacked because she's a rising star in the Democratic Party and she pisses off Trump.

Maybe the paleness of her skin is due to her never going outside. Stay at home is normal for her.

Dude, you know that you *can* make an argument without going after her appearance, right?

If you had seen the CNN interview you might have drawn the association between her banning of the selling of lawn care products and using boats with motors. You know how most people are not actually white, but sort of pink? She is white. It is not a healthy color.

I'm...not even sure how to respond to that. 

Check it out yourself. She does not look healthy.

Who cares?

[Joe Republic]

https://twitter.com/bry_mac/status/1250156179055149056?s=21

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Do Fauci and Birx actually expect people to go back to restaurants, bars, clubs, theaters and sporting events anytime soon? Wow they both drank the Trump Kool-Aid

[wbrocks67]

Do Fauci and Birx actually expect people to go back to restaurants, bars, clubs, theaters and sporting events anytime soon? Wow they both drank the Trump Kool-Aid

My favorite part is that in Phase *ONE* of this "guidance", it has Gyms and Movie Theaters expected to reopen with "social distancing measures", as if those would actually work at places like those. Yet, Bars remain closed. The entire thing doesn't make any sense.

[Brittain33]

Guys, remember when jimrtex was a respected and knowledgeable poster who mostly focused on the nuts and bolts of redistricting? Me too.

We have always gotten this kind of contribution from him along with the maps and deep knowledge. It just hasn't happened on this subforum before.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Do Fauci and Birx actually expect people to go back to restaurants, bars, clubs, theaters and sporting events anytime soon? Wow they both drank the Trump Kool-Aid

My favorite part is that in Phase *ONE* of this "guidance", it has Gyms and Movie Theaters expected to reopen with "social distancing measures", as if those would actually work at places like those. Yet, Bars remain closed. The entire thing doesn't make any sense.

The fact they helped design this shows both Birx and Fauci have become Trump's loyal minions and they drank the Kool-Aid

[ilikeverin]

Guys, remember when jimrtex was a respected and knowledgeable poster who mostly focused on the nuts and bolts of redistricting? Me too.

We have always gotten this kind of contribution from him along with the maps and deep knowledge. It just hasn't happened on this subforum before.

That must explain it. I was just as surprised as Nathan, but maybe I wasn't looking in the correct threads. Shame. I like his redistricting contributions very much.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Do Fauci and Birx actually expect people to go back to restaurants, bars, clubs, theaters and sporting events anytime soon? Wow they both drank the Trump Kool-Aid

My favorite part is that in Phase *ONE* of this "guidance", it has Gyms and Movie Theaters expected to reopen with "social distancing measures", as if those would actually work at places like those. Yet, Bars remain closed. The entire thing doesn't make any sense.

The fact they helped design this shows both Birx and Fauci have become Trump's loyal minions and they drank the Kool-Aid

I don't think that follows. I highly doubt they're the sources of the stupidest ideas in this plan.

[wbrocks67]

It's clear Birx and Fauci act as if things are rosier than they really are to make Trump happy.

Meanwhile, if one state is "open" and another is not, what is stopping me, say I'm infected, from going to a state/area that's "reopen" and infecting people? Say I'm asymptomatic.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1250919011262627840

[Skill and Chance]

It's clear Birx and Fauci act as if things are rosier than they really are to make Trump happy.

Meanwhile, if one state is "open" and another is not, what is stopping me, say I'm infected, from going to a state/area that's "reopen" and infecting people? Say I'm asymptomatic.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1250919011262627840

Well,  no one has blocked Hawaii, etc. from doing the mandatory 14 day quarantine for out-of-state visitors, so I guess they would just impose that rule. In fairness, I could see that being an unholy mess with small states and cross-border commuters if say part of New England is open before NYC and Boston are, but the places that are actually likely to try an early opening are also the most remote/least dense. 

[DINGO Joe]

When Louisiana and Alabama dumbasses collide:

Lawyer for Central pastor and church bucking stay-at-home order hospitalized with coronavirus

The lawyer, Jeff Wittenbrink, attended two events at Life Tabernacle Church —  an April 2 news conference and an April 5 church service, and has been at Baton Rouge General since Tuesday after progressively worsening conditions, including a high fever and persistent cough, he said....

"I went to Albertson's twice a day. I went to Sam's. I went to Walmart. I went to Lowe's. I used the gas pumps. I mean I just wasn't careful. God knows where I got it. The bad thing is I might have spread to somebody. I feel bad about that, " he said.

If you click on the link you can see a nice shot of Mr. Wittenbrink speaking at the church on Apr 2nd standing right next to.....Roy Moore.

But wait there's more...

Member of defiant Central church dies from coronavirus illness, but pastor says it's a lie

Yeah, it's just as bad as it sounds

[Joe Republic]

Guys, remember when jimrtex was a respected and knowledgeable poster who mostly focused on the nuts and bolts of redistricting? Me too.

He's always used 105% of his brain.

[Beet]

Some potential good news, if this study is right.

Study of 1,200 cases claims that an overwhelming amount (80%) involved indoor transmission between family members, public transportation was involved in the second largest share (34%), but very little outdoor transmission.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf+html

Suggests while airborne transmission is possible, it is not the main source of transmission. The only problem I have with this study is potential selection effects. Cases are more likely to be connected to each other as part of a single outbreak if transmitted among family.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some potential good news, if this study is right.

Study of 1,200 cases claims that an overwhelming amount (80%) involved indoor transmission between family members, public transportation was involved in the second largest share (34%), but very little outdoor transmission.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf+html

Suggests while airborne transmission is possible, it is not the main source of transmission. The only problem I have with this study is potential selection effects. Cases are more likely to be connected to each other as part of a single outbreak if transmitted among family.

If this study was correct, then what would in general be the most common mode of transmission? People touching things?

[Beet]

Some potential good news, if this study is right.

Study of 1,200 cases claims that an overwhelming amount (80%) involved indoor transmission between family members, public transportation was involved in the second largest share (34%), but very little outdoor transmission.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf+html

Suggests while airborne transmission is possible, it is not the main source of transmission. The only problem I have with this study is potential selection effects. Cases are more likely to be connected to each other as part of a single outbreak if transmitted among family.

If this study was correct, then what would in general be the most common mode of transmission? People touching things?

It would be people living together at home, in close quarters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some potential good news, if this study is right.

Study of 1,200 cases claims that an overwhelming amount (80%) involved indoor transmission between family members, public transportation was involved in the second largest share (34%), but very little outdoor transmission.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf+html

Suggests while airborne transmission is possible, it is not the main source of transmission. The only problem I have with this study is potential selection effects. Cases are more likely to be connected to each other as part of a single outbreak if transmitted among family.

If this study was correct, then what would in general be the most common mode of transmission? People touching things?

It would be people living together at home, in close quarters.

So basically large numbers of people touching the same substances then? (Which is probably hand transmission by proxy?)

[Beet]

Some potential good news, if this study is right.

Study of 1,200 cases claims that an overwhelming amount (80%) involved indoor transmission between family members, public transportation was involved in the second largest share (34%), but very little outdoor transmission.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf+html

Suggests while airborne transmission is possible, it is not the main source of transmission. The only problem I have with this study is potential selection effects. Cases are more likely to be connected to each other as part of a single outbreak if transmitted among family.

If this study was correct, then what would in general be the most common mode of transmission? People touching things?

It would be people living together at home, in close quarters.

So basically large numbers of people touching the same substances then? (Which is probably hand transmission by proxy?)

Yes, and droplet infection, like being nearby someone who is coughing and breathing in their large droplets (which is different from airborne, which is when the virus suspends in the air for a long period of time & can travel many meters).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some potential good news, if this study is right.

Study of 1,200 cases claims that an overwhelming amount (80%) involved indoor transmission between family members, public transportation was involved in the second largest share (34%), but very little outdoor transmission.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf+html

Suggests while airborne transmission is possible, it is not the main source of transmission. The only problem I have with this study is potential selection effects. Cases are more likely to be connected to each other as part of a single outbreak if transmitted among family.

If this study was correct, then what would in general be the most common mode of transmission? People touching things?

It would be people living together at home, in close quarters.

So basically large numbers of people touching the same substances then? (Which is probably hand transmission by proxy?)

Yes, and droplet infection, like being nearby someone who is coughing and breathing in their large droplets (which is different from airborne, which is when the virus suspends in the air for a long period of time & can travel many meters).

So the difference between droplet infection and airborne is if I am sitting next to someone and this person exhaled, whereas it'd be airborne if they sneezed a  few times in a room with little airflow out of it and then a few hours later I arrived in the room and inhaled the air in it?

[Skill and Chance]

Some potential good news, if this study is right.

Study of 1,200 cases claims that an overwhelming amount (80%) involved indoor transmission between family members, public transportation was involved in the second largest share (34%), but very little outdoor transmission.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf+html

Suggests while airborne transmission is possible, it is not the main source of transmission. The only problem I have with this study is potential selection effects. Cases are more likely to be connected to each other as part of a single outbreak if transmitted among family.

If this study was correct, then what would in general be the most common mode of transmission? People touching things?

It would be people living together at home, in close quarters.

So basically large numbers of people touching the same substances then? (Which is probably hand transmission by proxy?)

Yes, and droplet infection, like being nearby someone who is coughing and breathing in their large droplets (which is different from airborne, which is when the virus suspends in the air for a long period of time & can travel many meters).

So the difference between droplet infection and airborne is if I am sitting next to someone and this person exhaled, whereas it'd be airborne if they sneezed a  few times in a room with little airflow out of it and then a few hours later I arrived in the room and inhaled the air in it?

If this were verified it would mean the park/trail closures are highly counterproductive.