COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

Data as of Apr. 6 at 3:03 a.m.

Cases per day:

Deaths per day:


Per state, total:

Per state, per capita:




Caution that there's probably some under-reporting during the weekends.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Oh I know it was bureaucratic nonsense but the buck stops with Trump. It was his own people doing the bungling. He did finally put his foot down and got the testing flowing, like it is now. It was just a few weeks too late. We can only speculate if Hillary or someone else would have done better, but Trump's government screwed it up. That is what we know for sure.

As I said my understanding that it's what experts-epidemiologist (not bureaucratic) of CDC decision to proceed like this. If there is any evidence that experts of CDS were demanding more testing, but Trump/his bureaucrats screw it up, link to it.

I already linked to CNN article that explained about CDC routines, here is 538 about testing and diff vs South Korea
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-coronavirus-tests-actually-work/

Compare that to South Korea, where people can get their results in about a day. There, the government had been stockpiling the necessary chemicals for years after COVID-19’s cousin MERS briefly hit that country in 2015. That helped the country move quickly to approve and decentralize testing as soon as COVID-19 arrived.

See, a structural problem that US governments didn't stockpiled, not specifically Trump's or Obama's. Most European Countries are doing worse/same.

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1245449988186025985

Bug and feature of US system.

Even now states like mine just aren't testing enough and they aren't recommending tests unless you fall under a strict criteria.

Take a look at Europe. Even stricter criteria, even less testing for most countries. Explanation is not that their current governments were "bungling", but that their systems are structurally different from US and that most governments have been "bungling" in decades.

Germany is an obvious exception. Fast and massive testing from the beginning.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I've been seeing some confusion floating around (outside of TE) regarding Boris Johnson.

Some are taking reports that he is "on oxygen" as "the Prime Minister is on a ventilator".

These two items are not the same.  A ventilator is an invasive setup.  When someone is on a ventilator, a tube is threaded down the throat and into the windpipe ("intubation").  The ventilator basically assists the patient in breathing by simulating the mechanisms for respiration (and can sometimes be the sole driver behind respiration).  This allows the patient to rest without their body needing to regulate these mechanism.  

Someone who is "on oxygen" has O2 being delivered to his or her body via a non-invasive setup (a mask or cannula, for instance).  Different O2 concentrations can be delivered depending on the needs of the patient, but the patient is still responsible for actual respiration.  

[T'Chenka]

My local PetsMart has a new setup where you have to order and pay online, and then later when you arrive, you call and they come outside and put your items in your car. They required my address and email address on top of my credit card payment and phone number. I don't lile giving companies all this info and typically would take my business elsewhere, but I don't want to buy crickets online. Can't let my elderly leopard gecko starve.

Big picture, I'm thankful that these are the problems I'm dealing with during COVID-19 and not health issues or death of myself or loved ones. My life is blessed, inshallah.

[Koharu]

Researcher: We Can Reframe Social Distancing As An Act Of Kindness

Richard Davidson, a professor of psychology and psychiatry at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the founder and director of the Center for Healthy Minds, says that in this time of unusual challenges, we have also been cut off from many of our usual coping techniques.

"We’re clearly facing unprecedented times, and it’s really challenging for all of us, there’s absolutely no denying that," Davidson said. "At the same time, we’re being asked to engage in changes in our lifestyle that contribute to our anxiety and stress," he said.

[Lechasseur]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheAgeofShoddy/status/1247111328675717120

[parochial boy]

Oh I know it was bureaucratic nonsense but the buck stops with Trump. It was his own people doing the bungling. He did finally put his foot down and got the testing flowing, like it is now. It was just a few weeks too late. We can only speculate if Hillary or someone else would have done better, but Trump's government screwed it up. That is what we know for sure.

As I said my understanding that it's what experts-epidemiologist (not bureaucratic) of CDC decision to proceed like this. If there is any evidence that experts of CDS were demanding more testing, but Trump/his bureaucrats screw it up, link to it.

I already linked to CNN article that explained about CDC routines, here is 538 about testing and diff vs South Korea
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-coronavirus-tests-actually-work/

Compare that to South Korea, where people can get their results in about a day. There, the government had been stockpiling the necessary chemicals for years after COVID-19’s cousin MERS briefly hit that country in 2015. That helped the country move quickly to approve and decentralize testing as soon as COVID-19 arrived.

See, a structural problem that US governments didn't stockpiled, not specifically Trump's or Obama's. Most European Countries are doing worse/same.

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1245449988186025985

Bug and feature of US system.

Even now states like mine just aren't testing enough and they aren't recommending tests unless you fall under a strict criteria.

Take a look at Europe. Even stricter criteria, even less testing for most countries. Explanation is not that their current governments were "bungling", but that their systems are structurally different from US and that most governments have been "bungling" in decades.

Germany is an obvious exception. Fast and massive testing from the beginning.

Except I'm not really sure that the point holds that well.

If you look at the systems that have been doing really badly in terms of ramping up testing you get:

France/Italy/Spain - all have overwhelmed healthcare systems where testing has been dropped as a priority just to be able to keep up. In Italy and Spain's case you are coming off initially missing the boat on the emergency exacerbated by a decade of of political turmoil and austerity politics that have clearly damaged the healthcare systems. They're also, don't forget, much poorer countries than the USA. In France, well anybody who follows French politics will be perfectly aware that the French healthcare was already heading into a crisis before the pandemic, driven by funding cuts and a "privatisation" of the system.

The UK - funding cuts that have deeply damaged the system over the last decade, plus a political response that makes that was even more incompetent than Trump's - pretendig there was no problem for weeks after it already clearly was. (both the French and the Brits took far too long to cancel their soccer leagues, for example, which have turned out to have been a massive incubator for the disease).

The Netherlands - which recently liberalised/privatised it's system, and has one of the least "socialised" systems in Europe.

Doing the best, as in better than the USA, you have Germany/Austria/Denmark/Norway/Iceland which all have "socialised" healthcare with differing levels of centralisation. Followed by Switzerland, which has a less socialised system, but where testing and care has been overwhelmingly taken on by the cantonal authorities and the public hospitals - the private insurers were actually one of the principal reason Switzerland was kind of slow of the marks.

I mean, the fact that the US has driven straight past all of these countries in terms of per capita cases and (except for Switzerland - which was basically hit at point blank range by what happened in Italy) and per capita death,s even despite the being a long haul flight away from any of the outbreak zones while all the aforementioned countries being far more exposed to Italy and Spain kind of shows you immediately that the US response was not great.

So maybe to a degree the level of decentralisation matters, if it gives healthcare systems some degree of insulation from political decisions, but overall there isn't honestly a lot of overlap between "socialised" healthcare and an especially efficient or inefficient ability to ramp up levels of testing. I very much get the feeling that the political response, including in the run up to the crisis, combined with the economic context seem to be much bigger predicators of how well or badly a healthcare system has reacted than any actual structural aspects within the healthcare system.

[DINGO Joe]

My local PetsMart has a new setup where you have to order and pay online, and then later when you arrive, you call and they come outside and put your items in your car. They required my address and email address on top of my credit card payment and phone number. I don't lile giving companies all this info and typically would take my business elsewhere, but I don't want to buy crickets online. Can't let my elderly leopard gecko starve.

Big picture, I'm thankful that these are the problems I'm dealing with during COVID-19 and not health issues or death of myself or loved ones. My life is blessed, inshallah.

Except for a phone number, that's the same info you'd give if you had it shipped to you, so I don't see the issue.  My bookstore has the same set up.

[wbrocks67]

There are now new cases in China, so that should caution anyone that wants to run right back to normal just because there is like a week or two of little to no new cases

[forgotten manatee]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheAgeofShoddy/status/1247111328675717120

What the hell does that mean?

[DINGO Joe]

RE: toilet paper

Someone may have mentioned this earlier, but I haven't had time to keep up with the thread.  I was in the office on Saturday and the Facilities Manager was there and asked me if I needed any TP and offered one of the giant rolls that you see in commercial buildings, I declined as I'm still stocked.  He said that it's not just hoarding that caused the TP shortage, it's the fact that everyone is at home.  He said home consumption is up 40% because people aren't using commercial restrooms in offices/schools etc... They're obviously two quite different forms of TP and the supply chain can't just turn on a dime like that.  People aren't exactly storming the Superdome for it's sweet TP supply yet, but i guess it's an option.

You see it in other things too.  Fresh seafood, especially crawfish are plentiful and cheap around here because the industry is accustomed to supplying restaurants and even on an ordinary week, New Orleans feeds a ton of tourists.  I saw an article about vegeetable growers in South Florida that traditionally supply the cruise lines that are basically gave away a harvest to food banks but now are plowing under crops because they can't afford to harvest, and i guess no one is nimble enough to make it financially possible to repurpose that product.

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheAgeofShoddy/status/1247111328675717120

What the hell does that mean?

Just internet dumbassery

[Lechasseur]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheAgeofShoddy/status/1247111328675717120

What the hell does that mean?

We're not going to have any damn jobs and we'll be living in the streets at this rate

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mSaleemJaved/status/1246523470516817923

[GeorgiaModerate]

Really good thread on the difference between "best case" and "worst case" models:

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246957709682806785

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/upshot/coronavirus-four-benchmarks-reopening.html
How Will We Know When It’s Time to Reopen the Nation?
Experts offer four benchmarks that can serve as a guide for cities and states, eliminating some of the guesswork.

A recent report by Scott Gottlieb, Caitlin Rivers, Mark B. McClellan, Lauren Silvis and Crystal Watson staked out some goal posts

• Hospitals in the state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care.
• A state needs to be able to test at least everyone who has symptoms.
• The state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts.
• There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.

[roxas11]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheAgeofShoddy/status/1247111328675717120

While its true that many Americans may permanently lose their jobs because of the recession that this virus has caused I would not say that Their lives are effectively over because of that

If the greatest generation can survive the great depression and WW2
than I think this generation will overcome this in the end

[QAnonKelly]

https://twitter.com/mSaleemJaved/status/1246523470516817923

Chloroquine  is legit the worst medication I've ever been on. It made me the sickest I've ever been for about two months when I took it.

[Tender Branson]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheAgeofShoddy/status/1247111328675717120

Too pessimistic.

People will get other jobs again, or ... if their former companies did not go broke - they will get hired again.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Chloroquine  is legit the worst medication I've ever been on. It made me the sickest I've ever been for about two months when I took it.

Why were you on it to begin with?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Really good thread on the difference between "best case" and "worst case" models:

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246957709682806785

Not disputing what he says, but the "worst case" model he mentioned was published 3 week ago, so I assume the data it used is at least month old (from China?). A month is like eternity in a pandemic era. In past month we've got a LOT of new data from Europa and US and know more about the effect of different mitigation efforts, CFR, length of hospitalizations etc.

So my question is basically, do we have more recent models/projection we can look at?

[Meclazine for Israel]

There are now new cases in China, so that should caution anyone that wants to run right back to normal just because there is like a week or two of little to no new cases

New Daily Cases (yesterday)

30 - China
81 - South Korea
120 - Singapore
500 - Japan

China and South Korea numbers are negligible at this late stage.

With strict tracing and isolation protocols, i would rather be in this part of the world during a pandemic.

Japan and Singapore are approaching their highest level after a very slow start.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-06/coronavirus-update-queen-message-us-warning-boris-johnson/12123880

Let's see what they do in the next 2 weeks, because the virus is brewing.

[QAnonKelly]

Chloroquine  is legit the worst medication I've ever been on. It made me the sickest I've ever been for about two months when I took it.

Why were you on it to begin with?

Went to a malaria hotspot and got the generic daily drug. Every other time I went, I took the weekly brand name one.

[Lechasseur]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheAgeofShoddy/status/1247111328675717120

While its true that many Americans may permanently lose their jobs because of the recession that this virus has caused I would not say that Their lives are effectively over because of that

If the greatest generation can survive the great depression and WW2
than I think this generation will overcome this in the end

This will be worse than the Great Depression

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheAgeofShoddy/status/1247111328675717120

While its true that many Americans may permanently lose their jobs because of the recession that this virus has caused I would not say that Their lives are effectively over because of that

If the greatest generation can survive the great depression and WW2
than I think this generation will overcome this in the end

This will be worse than the Great Depression

In depth possibly, in duration almost certainly not.