COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The question for everybody here is why do y'all pay attention to what limo liberal or Russian Bear have to say

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The question for everybody here is why do y'all pay attention to what limo liberal or Russian Bear have to say

How are you feeling btw, TSA? You've definitely been in my thoughts.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexDiPrato/status/1246881635821371392

[The Dowager Mod]

The question for everybody here is why do y'all pay attention to what limo liberal or Russian Bear have to say

Some of us have no choice.

[parochial boy]

Wow, look at the tracker today. Nearly every state seeing decreases in new cases compared to yesterday. Looks like the tide has turned more quickly than anyone expected and Trump has saved the country from disaster, expect a big approval bump.

That tracker you're citing may not be entirely accurate:

Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count

As if we ever come close to to accurately counting deaths from the flu or other respiratory viruses that primarily kill older folks with serious preexisting conditions.  There’s an almost unanswerable argument here about how to code these deaths in people who are really sick - does blaming the coronavirus or the flu (or anything else) for the death of someone who would have died in a few days from a severe underlying illness make sense? 

The article does actually explain it... you can calculate a fairly accurate death toll by simply comparing the number of people dying over a time period versus the number of people you would normally expect to die over the same time period. So someone who was already terminally ill wouldn't get included in that sort of calculation if they already would have died within the time period during which the epidemic occured.

[Virginiá]

The question for everybody here is why do y'all pay attention to what limo liberal or Russian Bear have to say

Hard to believe it's been almost 2 years since he was banned from Congressional board and yet he's still pushing his low-effort troll act.

For gods sakes Limo, let it go. It's not funny.

[Del Tachi]

Wow, look at the tracker today. Nearly every state seeing decreases in new cases compared to yesterday. Looks like the tide has turned more quickly than anyone expected and Trump has saved the country from disaster, expect a big approval bump.

That tracker you're citing may not be entirely accurate:

Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count

As if we ever come close to to accurately counting deaths from the flu or other respiratory viruses that primarily kill older folks with serious preexisting conditions.  There’s an almost unanswerable argument here about how to code these deaths in people who are really sick - does blaming the coronavirus or the flu (or anything else) for the death of someone who would have died in a few days from a severe underlying illness make sense? 

With your “logic” I should be able to shoot up a ward of terminally ill cancer patients and not be classified as a murderer.

Differences in how deaths are coded could be a big reason why case fatality rates appear so different across countries - from less than 1% in Germany to over 8% in Italy.  Italy was apparently very generous in coding deaths from COVID-19 during the outbreak.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Trevor Bedford (the U Washington scientist who has done lots of great phylogenetic analysis of the outbreak) estimates based on genetic sequencing that the actual total number of cases in China was about 55,800 (range from 17,500 to 194,400).

Phylodynamic estimation of incidence and prevalence of novel coronavirus (nCoV) infections through time

Here, we use a phylodynamic approach incorporating 53 publicly available novel coronavirus (nCoV) genomes to the estimate underlying incidence and prevalence of the epidemic. This approach uses estimates of the rate of coalescence through time to infer underlying viral population size and then uses assumptions of serial interval and heterogeneity of transmission to provide estimates of incidence and prevalence. We estimate an exponential doubling time of 7.2 (95% CI 5.0-12.9) days. We arrive at a median estimate of the total cumulative number of worldwide infections as of Feb 8, 2020, of 55,800 with a 95\% uncertainty interval of 17,500 to 194,400. Importantly, this approach uses genome data from local and international cases and does not rely on case reporting within China.

The important thing about this analysis is entirely independent of the reported case #s from China, but it is nonetheless in the same general range.

So it suggests that the Chinese #s likely do not understate the actual # of cases that occurred in China, at least not by a huge amount. That is some more evidence, from an independent method, that there are not a larger # of asymptomatic/mild cases than scientists currently think.

[Del Tachi]

Wow, look at the tracker today. Nearly every state seeing decreases in new cases compared to yesterday. Looks like the tide has turned more quickly than anyone expected and Trump has saved the country from disaster, expect a big approval bump.

That tracker you're citing may not be entirely accurate:

Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count

As if we ever come close to to accurately counting deaths from the flu or other respiratory viruses that primarily kill older folks with serious preexisting conditions.  There’s an almost unanswerable argument here about how to code these deaths in people who are really sick - does blaming the coronavirus or the flu (or anything else) for the death of someone who would have died in a few days from a severe underlying illness make sense? 

The article does actually explain it... you can calculate a fairly accurate death toll by simply comparing the number of people dying over a time period versus the number of people you would normally expect to die over the same time period. So someone who was already terminally ill wouldn't get included in that sort of calculation if they already would have died within the time period during which the epidemic occured.

Yes, but that isn't happening yet and the CDC isn't even requiring positive identification of COVID-19 for it to be listed as a cause of death.

You're exactly right that we'll see the true scope of the pandemic only when looking at total mortality numbers.  What is total mortality saying now compared to a year ago?

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1246894412472483841

From the reassurance of the Queen's speech, to this.

The official statement says he plans to remain in charge of the government, and this is not an emergency appointment. Isn't really all that reassuring though. Nothing like the PM being admitted to hospital on a Sunday night (21.30 local time)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1246894412472483841

From the reassurance of the Queen's speech, to this.

The official statement says he plans to remain in charge of the government, and this is not an emergency appointment. Isn't really all that reassuring though. Nothing like the PM being admitted to hospital on a Sunday night (21.30 local time)

That "admitted to hospital" (vs. taken to hospital, etc.) is troubling to me, especially ten days after initial diagnosis.  

[Torrain]

Concerning Johnson, this is quite worrying.

Johnson is in his mid-50s and significantly overweight - putting him into the at-risk category. Add on the impact that stress has on the immune system, given his national role, and this could get ugly.

Johnson is determined not to give up his position, so there could be some issues with continuity of government, if his condition worsens.

If I'm honest, I'm freaking out right now. If Johnson's health worsens, or God-forbid he doesn't make it, there's going to be uncertainty and panic, just as we head into the peak of the infection here.

[Torrain]

That "admitted to hospital" (vs. taken to hospital, etc.) is troubling to me, especially ten days after initial diagnosis.  

Personally, I feel like that might just be BBC formal wording (but I'll defer to your greater medical knowledge).

The more worrying thing to me is that Johnson is being admitted to an NHS hospital out of hours. The only NHS service you could access right now is NHS 24, which is reserved for cases that you cannot wait until morning for. The government knows that the optics of this are terrible, and would do this quietly if they could.

The very fact that Johnson had to attend hospital this evening for tests is cause for major alarm.

[Torrain]

We're now hearing that UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will be chairing the Government meetings in Downing Street tomorrow.

(Raab, a widely unpopular figure, was announced in March to be the acting-PM if things go south).

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1246894412472483841
From the reassurance of the Queen's speech, to this.

The official statement says he plans to remain in charge of the government, and this is not an emergency appointment. Isn't really all that reassuring though. Nothing like the PM being admitted to hospital on a Sunday night (21.30 local time)

That "admitted to hospital" (vs. taken to hospital, etc.) is troubling to me, especially ten days after initial diagnosis.  

What's the difference?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Concerning Johnson, this is quite worrying.

Johnson is in his mid-50s and significantly overweight - putting him into the at-risk category. Add on the impact that stress has on the immune system, given his national role, and this could get ugly.

Johnson is determined not to give up his position, so there could be some issues with continuity of government, if his condition worsens.

If I'm honest, I'm freaking out right now. If Johnson's health worsens, or God-forbid he doesn't make it, there's going to be uncertainty and panic, just as we head into the peak of the infection here.

I'll defer back to your knowledge of British English.  But from what I know about healthcare terminology, "admitted to hospital" carries a weight to it.  

And just putting on my med student cap here, if he's being "admitted to hospital" ten days after initial diagnosis, it might be precautionary just on the basis of persisting and unrelenting symptoms.  It could be serious but not necessarily an emergency.  

But you're right about the after-hours timing.  The thing that apparently causes people to seek urgent medical attention in the context of COVID is respiratory distress and pneumonia. Of course, there's no way for me to know if that's the case here.  

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The question for everybody here is why do y'all pay attention to what limo liberal or Russian Bear have to say

How are you feeling btw, TSA? You've definitely been in my thoughts.

Pretty well now, I still have a cough but other than that I'm pretty good. I gotta say the first 3 days of showing symptoms was the worst

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1246894412472483841
From the reassurance of the Queen's speech, to this.

The official statement says he plans to remain in charge of the government, and this is not an emergency appointment. Isn't really all that reassuring though. Nothing like the PM being admitted to hospital on a Sunday night (21.30 local time)

That "admitted to hospital" (vs. taken to hospital, etc.) is troubling to me, especially ten days after initial diagnosis.  

What's the difference?

Usually when someone is admitted to hospital, it means that he or she requires extra observation -- often overnight (and, thus, becoming an inpatient).  IOW, he or she is not an outpatient. An outpatient is someone that recieves clinical care without being admitted.  

Basically, if you're being admitted, it won't be a simple "alrighty, everything checks out! You're good to go!"-visit.  

[LimoLiberal]

The question for everybody here is why do y'all pay attention to what limo liberal or Russian Bear have to say

Hard to believe it's been almost 2 years since he was banned from Congressional board and yet he's still pushing his low-effort troll act.

For gods sakes Limo, let it go. It's not funny.

You moved to Russia? And hate men? I still stan you Virginia, despite your feelings about me.

So this post isn't entirely off-topic, that's astounding that ICU numbers are DOWN from a week ago. A lot of "experts" might end up looking very dumb by the end of this.

[Torrain]

Concerning Johnson, this is quite worrying.

Johnson is in his mid-50s and significantly overweight - putting him into the at-risk category. Add on the impact that stress has on the immune system, given his national role, and this could get ugly.

Johnson is determined not to give up his position, so there could be some issues with continuity of government, if his condition worsens.

If I'm honest, I'm freaking out right now. If Johnson's health worsens, or God-forbid he doesn't make it, there's going to be uncertainty and panic, just as we head into the peak of the infection here.

I'll defer back to your knowledge of British English.  But from what I know about healthcare terminology, "admitted to hospital" carries a weight to it.  

And just putting on my med student cap here, if he's being "admitted to hospital" ten days after initial diagnosis, it might be precautionary just on the basis of persisting and unrelenting symptoms.  It could be serious but not necessarily an emergency.  

But you're right about the after-hours timing.  The thing that apparently causes people to seek urgent medical attention in the context of COVID is respiratory distress and pneumonia. Of course, there's no way for me to know if that's the case here.  

Thanks PQG, appreciate it. Definitely sounds like 'admitting' is a bigger deal than I thought.

And yeah, he's apparently in for tests (chest x-ray, white blood cell counts etc), but will remain in hospital overnight.

Can I ask two questions?
1. Am I right in assuming that these tests indicate that we could be in for far more serious illness here?
2. Is there significance to him being held in overnight or is that normal in a situation like this?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/natashaldaly/status/1246900371706036228

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Concerning Johnson, this is quite worrying.

Johnson is in his mid-50s and significantly overweight - putting him into the at-risk category. Add on the impact that stress has on the immune system, given his national role, and this could get ugly.

Johnson is determined not to give up his position, so there could be some issues with continuity of government, if his condition worsens.

If I'm honest, I'm freaking out right now. If Johnson's health worsens, or God-forbid he doesn't make it, there's going to be uncertainty and panic, just as we head into the peak of the infection here.

I'll defer back to your knowledge of British English.  But from what I know about healthcare terminology, "admitted to hospital" carries a weight to it.  

And just putting on my med student cap here, if he's being "admitted to hospital" ten days after initial diagnosis, it might be precautionary just on the basis of persisting and unrelenting symptoms.  It could be serious but not necessarily an emergency.  

But you're right about the after-hours timing.  The thing that apparently causes people to seek urgent medical attention in the context of COVID is respiratory distress and pneumonia. Of course, there's no way for me to know if that's the case here.  

Thanks PQG, appreciate it. Definitely sounds like 'admitting' is a bigger deal than I thought.

And yeah, he's apparently in for tests (chest x-ray, white blood cell counts etc), but will remain in hospital overnight.

Can I ask two questions?
1. Am I right in assuming that these tests indicate that we could be in for far more serious illness here?
2. Is there significance to him being held in overnight or is that normal in a situation like this?

Deep breaths, Torrain.  

And the answer to both questions is: I can't say, unfortunately.  I would need to know the specifics of his symptoms, his vitals, etc. etc.  

What we do know is that he and/or his...caretakers(?) were concerned enough to have him admitted to hospital.  Now, again, this might be because his symptoms haven't subsided, it could be that he was feeling short of breath or experiencing chest pains, etc. etc.  

As I was saying to RB: when someone is kept overnight for observation (which isn't uncommon), it means that doctors want to (a) keep an eye on a patients' present condition while (b) also wanting to be prepared for a change in condition, new or more severe symptoms, and so on.   If he's been admitted -ADMITTED - at this time in the evening, it would be highly unusual for doctors to send him home without keeping him overnight. 

But once more, as much as I'd like to answer you more conclusively, it's tough to say without knowing the PM's specifics.  It really is just a wait-and-see type situation right now.  

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

https://twitter.com/natashaldaly/status/1246900371706036228

It always goes back to Carole Baskin...

[PSOL]

The idea that investments to stop pandemics are seen as unprofitable spending towards public health is a major reason why we are in this mess

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1246909791680770050