Fox News National (A-) Biden + 9

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

ABC poll disputes this poll

Yeah blue avatars and Rs think that Trump has seized the lead the way they talking yesterday that Biden would only win Mi and lose WI and PA. Which would be a 6 pt Trump lead

Are you saying that Trump has to win the PV by six to win WI and PA? Even in 2008, McCain would have won it with a 3% lead, Romney with a 1% PV lead, and Trump won it in 2016 with a -2% PV loss. 2004 would have required a 4% PV win for Bush to flip it. That is a pretty consistent trend line relative to the popular vote against a consistent backdrop of ever consistent declines in the Philly burbs. Bush did better there than Romney for instance and Romney did better there than Trump.

If Biden manages to pull off some kind of reversal based on his working class joe appeal, that isn't going to radically shift the trend line because Trump isn't going to compensate for that anywhere or with anyone. He is still getting destroyed in CA, NY, ILL, and still doing terribly in TX, GA etc. So the relative relationship to the national average will remain relatively the same, it is just that national baseline itself is going to be horrific for Trump.

Lets say Trump loses the PV by 9, the loss in PA will be somewhere between ~8 to 10, but the relative relationship to the national PV remains relatively the same in that scenario.

[Gass3268]

ABC poll disputes this poll

So average the two, Biden is up by 5.5%.

[ProudModerate2]

ABC poll disputes this poll

So average the two, Biden is up by 5.5%.

Yep.
The RCP average has Joe leading by 5.8%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

[pbrower2a]

50% wins nationwide. There will be some third-party or independent nominee on some right-leaning Party who can cut into the usual R vote enough that the structural advantage for Republicans in thin the Electoral College (which made the difference in 2000 and 2016) will not be enough. A 5.8% advantage is more than the Obama-Romney spread in 2016. 9%? That's more than the Bush-Dukakis spread in 1988.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

50% wins nationwide. There will be some third-party or independent nominee on some right-leaning Party who can cut into the usual R vote enough that the structural advantage for Republicans in thin the Electoral College (which made the difference in 2000 and 2016) will not be enough. A 5.8% advantage is more than the Obama-Romney spread in 2016. 9%? That's more than the Bush-Dukakis spread in 1988.

A fake moderate like McMullin would steal some Democratic votes. McMullin is a hardline fiscal conservative and neocon, but he isn't frothing at the mouth like Trump so he seems moderate.

[ElectionsGuy]

Oh, another crappy Fox News poll. March 20-22, 2016 Fox News found Clinton up 11 over Trump. "But he wasn't the incumbent then" - I would respect that argument more if the undecided/other numbers were drastically less in this one. They aren't. 49-38 Clinton in 2016 and 49-40 Biden in this one. Says a lot people believe this one over the WaPo/ABC news one, which has little/no undecideds.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem with the polls is that they womt release state by state polls, they only release natl polls. That's why the polls are questionable

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oh, another crappy Fox News poll. March 20-22, 2016 Fox News found Clinton up 11 over Trump. "But he wasn't the incumbent then" - I would respect that argument more if the undecided/other numbers were drastically less in this one. They aren't. 49-38 Clinton in 2016 and 49-40 Biden in this one. Says a lot people believe this one over the WaPo/ABC news one, which has little/no undecideds.

This is nonsense.  You're complaining that a poll EIGHT MONTHS before the 2016 election as being off.  Clinton probably would have won by a large margin if the election had been held at that time.  Do you think nothing changed in those eight months?

[Bidenworth2020]

Oh, another crappy Fox News poll. March 20-22, 2016 Fox News found Clinton up 11 over Trump. "But he wasn't the incumbent then" - I would respect that argument more if the undecided/other numbers were drastically less in this one. They aren't. 49-38 Clinton in 2016 and 49-40 Biden in this one. Says a lot people believe this one over the WaPo/ABC news one, which has little/no undecideds.

Kind of cherrypicking... from mid-summer 2015 to March 2016, the Fox poll fluctuated from Hillary +11 (the poll you mentioned) to Trump +5. Biden's lead has fluctuated between +8 and +12.

[ElectionsGuy]

Oh, another crappy Fox News poll. March 20-22, 2016 Fox News found Clinton up 11 over Trump. "But he wasn't the incumbent then" - I would respect that argument more if the undecided/other numbers were drastically less in this one. They aren't. 49-38 Clinton in 2016 and 49-40 Biden in this one. Says a lot people believe this one over the WaPo/ABC news one, which has little/no undecideds.

This is nonsense.  You're complaining that a poll EIGHT MONTHS before the 2016 election as being off.  Clinton probably would have won by a large margin if the election had been held at that time.  Do you think nothing changed in those eight months?

That's exactly the point. A poll 8 months before an election doesn't mean a whole lot, so people should stop trying to project the election from it.

[ElectionsGuy]

Oh, another crappy Fox News poll. March 20-22, 2016 Fox News found Clinton up 11 over Trump. "But he wasn't the incumbent then" - I would respect that argument more if the undecided/other numbers were drastically less in this one. They aren't. 49-38 Clinton in 2016 and 49-40 Biden in this one. Says a lot people believe this one over the WaPo/ABC news one, which has little/no undecideds.

Kind of cherrypicking... from mid-summer 2015 to March 2016, the Fox poll fluctuated from Hillary +11 (the poll you mentioned) to Trump +5. Biden's lead has fluctuated between +8 and +12.

I chose the March one because that's the same point we're at now. But regardless thanks for proving my point that Fox polls tend to be crappy. They often have high undecideds and Trump +5 was never near the average during 2016 and this time they consistently have Biden way ahead of his average.

[Bidenworth2020]

Oh, another crappy Fox News poll. March 20-22, 2016 Fox News found Clinton up 11 over Trump. "But he wasn't the incumbent then" - I would respect that argument more if the undecided/other numbers were drastically less in this one. They aren't. 49-38 Clinton in 2016 and 49-40 Biden in this one. Says a lot people believe this one over the WaPo/ABC news one, which has little/no undecideds.

Kind of cherrypicking... from mid-summer 2015 to March 2016, the Fox poll fluctuated from Hillary +11 (the poll you mentioned) to Trump +5. Biden's lead has fluctuated between +8 and +12.

I chose the March one because that's the same point we're at now. But regardless thanks for proving my point that Fox polls tend to be crappy. They often have high undecideds and Trump +5 was never near the average during 2016 and this time they consistently have Biden way ahead of his average.

I agree. I am mainly just saying that trying to compare polls, even year to year, is usually pointless as the campaigns are usually at different points (IIRC, Trump was like -40 in favorability around then due to the contentious Republican primary).

[Brittain33]

Oh, another crappy Fox News poll. March 20-22, 2016 Fox News found Clinton up 11 over Trump. "But he wasn't the incumbent then" - I would respect that argument more if the undecided/other numbers were drastically less in this one. They aren't. 49-38 Clinton in 2016 and 49-40 Biden in this one. Says a lot people believe this one over the WaPo/ABC news one, which has little/no undecideds.

This is nonsense.  You're complaining that a poll EIGHT MONTHS before the 2016 election as being off.  Clinton probably would have won by a large margin if the election had been held at that time.  Do you think nothing changed in those eight months?

That's exactly the point. A poll 8 months before an election doesn't mean a whole lot, so people should stop trying to project the election from it.

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