2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

The 6th is not majority-black on that map. The 2nd is barely majority black VAP and may not be majority black VAP by 2030.

D'oh. I was looking at the Biden numbers.
Usually I do better than this. Sorry.
That being said, this is still two performing black seats in 2030 (most likely).

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

The 6th is not majority-black on that map. The 2nd is barely majority black VAP and may not be majority black VAP by 2030.

I thought participating in this thread would have taught people that a performing district for the candidate of choice  does not need to be over 50% for the single specific minority group, and it varies based on the turnout and rpv in a region, but here we are.

The reason I'm kicking myself is the specific wording I used. A 49% black VAP seat including  Montgomery would still very, very, very likely return a D candidate despite rural black area depopulation.

[Death of a Salesman]

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

The 6th is not majority-black on that map. The 2nd is barely majority black VAP and may not be majority black VAP by 2030.

D'oh. I was looking at the Biden numbers.
Usually I do better than this. Sorry.
That being said, this is still two performing black seats in 2030 (most likely).

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

The 6th is not majority-black on that map. The 2nd is barely majority black VAP and may not be majority black VAP by 2030.

I thought participating in this thread would have taught people that a performing district for the candidate of choice  does not need to be over 50% for the single specific minority group, and it varies based on the turnout and rpv in a region, but here we are.

The reason I'm kicking myself is the specific wording I used. A 49% black VAP seat including  Montgomery would still very, very, very likely return a D candidate despite rural black area depopulation.

Under current caselaw, the GOP would probably have to draw a map like that, yes. However I would expect to see a lawsuit go the Supreme Court about whether they're mandated to draw performing seats if no plausible majority seat can be drawn.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

The 6th is not majority-black on that map. The 2nd is barely majority black VAP and may not be majority black VAP by 2030.

I thought participating in this thread would have taught people that a performing district for the candidate of choice  does not need to be over 50% for the single specific minority group, and it varies based on the turnout and rpv in a region, but here we are.

> creates a district with 49.9% black population and 35% white population

People; it’s NOT VRA!!!

[kwabbit]

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

Probably this whole process repeats itself. Worth noting that representation is *not* based on proportionality but if there is a concentrated and functioning minority area that is large enough to be a congressional seat (in glazing over but that’s the gist). If Alabama looses a seat (which is unlikely imo) they still would likely be required to have two black seats as the rural blacks are entitled to a seat and the rural blacks are too.

If Alabama had lost a seat, as the census estimates had predicted for most of the decade, Milligan would’ve failed. If Alabama loses a seat in 2030 two majority Black districts will be difficult. The Black belt district would have to expand massively. A Birmingham seat would be performing but not majority Black. If AL lost a seat and the GOP drew a 5-1 it could definitely hold up.

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/democracydocket/status/1682498279026704385?s=46&t=XC6qQa...

So…… is this just some weird way of them saying "we want a court drawn map"? Because it sure looks that way right now

[Oryxslayer]

So…… is this just some weird way of them saying "we want a court drawn map"? Because it sure looks that way right now

Yes. Thats been the discussion/expectation here for several pages now. Basically they have proven themselves better than the VA Senate and GA House who gaveled out without even doing anything in 2016 and 2003/4 respectively, but analogous to numerous other legislatures across the decades. As before, prove your loyalty to those currently elected and national figures, then blame the courts for the inevitable.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/democracydocket/status/1682498279026704385?s=46&t=XC6qQa...
So…… is this just some weird way of them saying "we want a court drawn map"? Because it sure looks that way right now

That's literally what they want. That way they don't have to choose which of their Reps to can.

[patzer]

That's literally what they want. That way they don't have to choose which of their Reps to can.

I do wonder, if they'd been ordered to redistrict in time for the 2022 election, i.e. when they only had five representatives thanks to Mo Brooks retiring from the house, if they would have passed a map like this with the purpose of protecting all five of their incumbents.

[politicallefty]

That's literally what they want. That way they don't have to choose which of their Reps to can.

I do wonder, if they'd been ordered to redistrict in time for the 2022 election, i.e. when they only had five representatives thanks to Mo Brooks retiring from the house, if they would have passed a map like this with the purpose of protecting all five of their incumbents.

[In Hank Hill's voice:] THE EROSITY!!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a020543f-3324-4287-beb6-d5ec1997fc17
I wonder what Del Tachi would think of this map.

[Greedo punched first]

That's literally what they want. That way they don't have to choose which of their Reps to can.

I do wonder, if they'd been ordered to redistrict in time for the 2022 election, i.e. when they only had five representatives thanks to Mo Brooks retiring from the house, if they would have passed a map like this with the purpose of protecting all five of their incumbents.

The thin snake to Mobile makes it illegal by not being sufficiently compact.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/politicalwire/status/1683518392936935429

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1683567944188436482?t=QQYCuLeLc1CODgoXwL4...


Court soliciting names in advance so remedial mapping goes quickly. Said mapper also would not be the master in their own right, like in some situations,  but a partner to the already decided master - as is done in other situations.

[Torie]

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

I see two Dem seats but only one 50% BVAP seat.

Here is one that does (modified since to smooth the lines a bit more). So, yes, it’s possible. Not good, but possible.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/7eb828ac-c1af-4a5f-85e7-67a434017e2c

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

I see two Dem seats but only one 50% BVAP seat.

Here is one that does. So, yes, it’s possible. Not good, but possible.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/faa3d1ad-67af-49c9-916e-26f56317a96b

For the hundredth time VRA seats don’t have to be 50% minority CVAP or VAP or anything. Just be able to elect the candidate of said minorities choice

[Torie]

Yes, but the "Gingles" trigger to require X number of performing minority districts be drawn is that X number of "compact" CD's can be drawn that are 50% VAP of the applicable minority.

It is a common misunderstanding of the law, which often leaches into the press (particularly the twitter press), by those who are not legal specialists on this issue.

[GALeftist]

Honestly I think the best chance for maintaining 2 Dem Reps past 2030 is a 14th Amendment racial gerrymandering claim that any 5-1 map would crack the Black Belt or Birmingham or something. The Gingles districts are just way too erose to be reasonable

[Torie]

Honestly I think the best chance for maintaining 2 Dem Reps past 2030 is a 14th Amendment racial gerrymandering claim that any 5-1 map would crack the Black Belt or Birmingham or something. The Gingles districts are just way too erose to be reasonable

There is no legal precedent to support such a claim under such theory. It's Gingles or bust - at the moment at least.

[kwabbit]

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

I see two Dem seats but only one 50% BVAP seat.

Here is one that does. So, yes, it’s possible. Not good, but possible.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/faa3d1ad-67af-49c9-916e-26f56317a96b

The issue is that the Black Belt is depopulating and needs to take in White turf. If you extrapolate 2010-2020 population trends it becomes even more difficult to get two majority Black seats. A 2020 BVAP of 48.5% is enough for 50% in 2030, but two majority seats are not getting created without Talladega and Dothan.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1684577543721295872?t=GnEhv9LuuO9PaVfRoayg1A&am...

So all will be finalized by the end of August ideally.

[Death of a Salesman]

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

I see two Dem seats but only one 50% BVAP seat.

Here is one that does. So, yes, it’s possible. Not good, but possible.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/faa3d1ad-67af-49c9-916e-26f56317a96b

The issue is that the Black Belt is depopulating and needs to take in White turf. If you extrapolate 2010-2020 population trends it becomes even more difficult to get two majority Black seats. A 2020 BVAP of 48.5% is enough for 50% in 2030, but two majority seats are not getting created without Talladega and Dothan.

2010 Populations for those districts, projected 2030 populations assuming growth proceed s at the same rate in the 2020s (it should be slower, but across the board), and seat quotas.

1: 756,589/926,784/1.050
2: 854,823/820,296/0.923
3: 749,784/935,205/1.060
4: 777,476/901,590/1.022
5: 806,152/869,824/0.986
6: 834,576/840,193/0.952

That's a lot of extra territory you need to take in. I don't think a map that erose is plausibly mandated under Gingles unless the composition of the court changes.

[kwabbit]

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

I see two Dem seats but only one 50% BVAP seat.

Here is one that does. So, yes, it’s possible. Not good, but possible.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/faa3d1ad-67af-49c9-916e-26f56317a96b

The issue is that the Black Belt is depopulating and needs to take in White turf. If you extrapolate 2010-2020 population trends it becomes even more difficult to get two majority Black seats. A 2020 BVAP of 48.5% is enough for 50% in 2030, but two majority seats are not getting created without Talladega and Dothan.

2010 Populations for those districts, projected 2030 populations assuming growth proceed s at the same rate in the 2020s (it should be slower, but across the board), and seat quotas.

1: 756,589/926,784/1.050
2: 854,823/820,296/0.923
3: 749,784/935,205/1.060
4: 777,476/901,590/1.022
5: 806,152/869,824/0.986
6: 834,576/840,193/0.952

That's a lot of extra territory you need to take in. I don't think a map that erose is plausibly mandated under Gingles unless the composition of the court changes.

Alabama is going to keep a 7th district in all likelihood so it's not an issue but if the AL GOP went with a 5-1 in 2030 if AL lost a seat I think it would hold up in court.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CERVASJ/status/1685307851961487360?t=tDHJzvrwLdVzQ9-grFO6bg&...


Plaintiff formal complaint against Alabamas actions, ahead of the scheduled court hearing to approve,  or as is suggested by past history,  reject the states attempts and pass the ball to their master and his mapper. Plaintiffs point back to their 10 remedial maps that satisfy the courts earlier findings and opinion in their complaint, maps agreed to by the Supreme Court.

[dpmapper]

I'm not endorsing this, but I found this an interesting contrary take on what the SCOTUS ruling requires and what it doesn't:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/alabamas-new-district-map-adheres-to-the-justices-ruling-allen-v-milligan-court-14a00f29?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

[Torie]

I'm not endorsing this, but I found this an interesting contrary take on what the SCOTUS ruling requires and what it doesn't:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/alabamas-new-district-map-adheres-to-the-justices-ruling-allen-v-milligan-court-14a00f29?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

It's behind a paywall so you will need to characterize what it said. What the legislature drew did not create a second black performing district and that is what is required. If the district drawn  was safely Dem, and blacks were a majority in a Dem primary, then it would be black performing. A district that Trump won by 4 points is not safely Dem. A black opportunity CD is not one where a candidate of the blacks' choice has a chance to win if the prevailing winds at the time are very favorable. A chance is not good enough. It must be a safe bet. Pathetic.