2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Torie]

Is it even possible to draw a 7-0 with two black districts?

Despite my best efforts, I cannot parse this question. Reading it literally, and assuming black districts means majority black, or black performing, the answer is no of course, based on past voting behavior. But surely you already know that.

[GALeftist]

So SCOTUS still hasn't stayed the lower court ruling... isn't the special master supposed to redraw on Monday?

[Greedo punched first]

So SCOTUS still hasn't stayed the lower court ruling... isn't the special master supposed to redraw on Monday?

It will stay the ruling.

[Oryxslayer]

So SCOTUS still hasn't stayed the lower court ruling... isn't the special master supposed to redraw on Monday?

Yes, he begins on Monday and could be done fast. Court filing deadline extension ends on the 11th. It's not hard to remap AL with section 2 goals, and given the rates I have heard that the special masters charge per hour, the parties will probably want him to go fast.

Now it's not unheard-of for the Supreme Court to do stuff on the weekend,  but it's much more common to see appeals to the body just go unreplied.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

So SCOTUS still hasn't stayed the lower court ruling... isn't the special master supposed to redraw on Monday?

It will stay the ruling.

Stay the ruling? Ha, as if they would do something so left-wing.

The SCOTUS is going to crown Trump as emperor, dissolve the House of Representatives, repeal the 13th Amendment and have all the gays shot. 6-3, maybe 5-4 if Roberts joins the liberals.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A reminder the special masters start redrawing tomorrow

Seems like the SCOTUS has decided to not intervene, at least for now.

Interesting we may get 2 black seats AL but only 1 in LA.

I think this should go relatively fast as there’s only so many ways to draw 2 black seats and they only have to draw a 7 district CD map and not legistkative maps.

I think the GOP prolly shot themselves in the foot by not submitting a map because now some of their incumbents may very well get double-bunked

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting we may get 2 black seats AL but only 1 in LA.

If this redraw gets through in AL, wouldn't that set a precedent for a similar lawsuit in LA? If anything, the case would be stronger in LA given the higher Black population.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting we may get 2 black seats AL but only 1 in LA.

If this redraw gets through in AL, wouldn't that set a precedent for a similar lawsuit in LA? If anything, the case would be stronger in LA given the higher Black population.

Theoretically yes but both states are different in terms of geography and stuff. Also LA Blacks are really bad at turning out (especially rural blacks) compared to AL do a 48% rural black district could actually be a tossup, which makes the case it’s not time to unpack LA black districts yet.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting we may get 2 black seats AL but only 1 in LA.

If this redraw gets through in AL, wouldn't that set a precedent for a similar lawsuit in LA? If anything, the case would be stronger in LA given the higher Black population.

Theoretically yes but both states are different in terms of geography and stuff. Also LA Blacks are really bad at turning out (especially rural blacks) compared to AL do a 48% rural black district could actually be a tossup, which makes the case it’s not time to unpack LA black districts yet.

I'm still not sure how these factors can be applied legally to justify not having two Black opportunity districts in LA. Maybe it means the second one in LA is a tossup or Lean D rather than Safe D like in AL, but still, it has to not be Safe R.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Interesting we may get 2 black seats AL but only 1 in LA.

If this redraw gets through in AL, wouldn't that set a precedent for a similar lawsuit in LA? If anything, the case would be stronger in LA given the higher Black population.

Theoretically yes but both states are different in terms of geography and stuff. Also LA Blacks are really bad at turning out (especially rural blacks) compared to AL do a 48% rural black district could actually be a tossup, which makes the case it’s not time to unpack LA black districts yet.

Louisiana Blacks turn up when there’s a competitive election/one they can win. They turned out for Edwards. The difference is Alabama would (more or less) be splitting up its current minority majority district, while Louisiana would be taking in black voters that haven’t been in a Minority Majority seat

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/1490776234799906823?s=20&t=3RUsCWAGoj...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/1490776234799906823?s=20&t=3RUsCWAGoj...

For those who are wondering, since Persily's name came up earlier, this is a situation where the master and mapper are not joined positions and work together - unlike in some situations where they are merged.  Allen was also named last week when they decided on the team, people just jumped to the second name. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Alabama must have a final map for 2022 by the 11th. If SCOTUS does a last minute swoop (which seems increasing unlikely), things could get really scrambly and go into unprecedented territory.

For now it seems pretty likely the 2022 map will have 2 black seats, but whether the map survives the decade is another question

[Greedo punched first]

Alabama must have a final map for 2022 by the 11th. If SCOTUS does a last minute swoop (which seems increasing unlikely), things could get really scrambly and go into unprecedented territory.

For now it seems pretty likely the 2022 map will have 2 black seats, but whether the map survives the decade is another question

It is likely. Alabama might keep the 6-1 map or go 7-0.

[GALeftist]

Alabama must have a final map for 2022 by the 11th. If SCOTUS does a last minute swoop (which seems increasing unlikely), things could get really scrambly and go into unprecedented territory.

For now it seems pretty likely the 2022 map will have 2 black seats, but whether the map survives the decade is another question

It is likely. Alabama might keep the 6-1 map or go 7-0.

Unsure if attempting a MillenialModerate GA type thing or what.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1490780616773840897?s=20&t=chg92Ums...

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1490780616773840897?s=20&t=chg92Ums...

hahahahahaha

[BoiseBoy]

5-4 decision, Roberts on dissent, lower court order is halted. 2 black seats in AL is dead. Why is America the only country in the world that has these issues?

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1490810082002706435?s=20&t=iOIqAL2pXGSYRGb...
https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1490810967504138245?s=20&t=iOIqAL2pXGSYRGb...

[lfromnj]

Roberts vote is more based on precedent and it seems that he wants to overturn in the end as well.

[GALeftist]

Hmm. Reading through Kavanaugh's concurrence, it seems like this might just be him not wanting confusion and delay right before an election since he's careful to say that he's not ruling on the merits (although I'd definitely bet on this being a Lucy with the football situation). However, Roberts's dissent does not give me much confidence that he doesn't want to seriously revise Gingles, to say the least.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1490811476654759936

The GOP is a pathetic institution.

[GALeftist]

Anyway, where's IndyRep for the novel length explanation of how radical and lockstep liberal justices are? Because it sure seems like there are at least five and possibly six votes on the Supreme Court to legalize literal Jim Crow racial gerrymandering.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1490811476654759936
The GOP is a pathetic institution.

Until I see an effort by Republicans to institute stronger voting rights protections, I am never voting for one again at the federal level.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Welp so much for that.

[lfromnj]

Anyway, where's IndyRep for the novel length explanation of how radical and lockstep liberal justices are? Because it sure seems like there are at least five and possibly six votes on the Supreme Court to legalize literal Jim Crow racial gerrymandering.

Jim crow is not drawing an arm into Mobile Alabama .