Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Schiff for Senate]

I feel like vomiting.

How do you think Dems feel when looking at the NC maps Republicans look likely to draw?

Why do you have a Blue avatar again? lmao

I expect NY and MD to be just brutal for the GOP as well.

I've made this point many times...the GOP refuses to end gerrymandering, so Democrats should fight fire with fire and go on the offensive. Ideally gerrymandering should end and all districts should be made by commissions but there's no reason for one party to gerrymander for the other to take the high road. Time to show the GOP the destructive effects of gerrymandering...Obviously, though, Democrats have less potential than the GOP since lots of their states with much potential (CA, CO) have independent commissions...the one in CO just irritated me since it draw a 4-3-1 map when a 5-3 or even 5-2-1 map is the fairest option. In fact, if they don't gerrymander at all and let the GOP do the gerrymandering, the GOP takes the House and is silencing Democratic voices. Countering that gerrymandering with gerrymandering of their own actually makes the House fairer and more representative (though still not nearly as good as it would be with independent commissions).



EDIT: The reason I am a Republican, I've realized, is quite convoluted and is in many ways the converse of how most people choose their affiliation. As I explained to WestMidlander six days ago:

And an unrelated question:

@Centrist Republican - would you ever consider leaving the GOP becoming an Independent or a Democrat, for example?

Yes, I have done so multiple times. Aside from its history as the antislavery party, the real reason I am still affiliated with the Republican Party is complicated. To put it simply I am affiliated with the GOP precisely because I disagree with many of its talking points: I am proudly pro-mask, anti-Trump and anti-Big Lie, for gun control, and pro-environment. All of these are anethma to the current GOP and welcome in the Democratic Party. But if I were a Democrat, no one would notice the views I am most proud of (being pro-mask, anti-Trump, anti-sedition, anti-gun, pro-environment) since that is the case for the generic Democrat; they'd notice my views that aren't commonly associated with the Democrats, and which I don't hold as proudly or as fervently: my opposition to transgenders, my opposition to welfare, my opposition to affirmative action, my opposition to wokeness. That's not to say I am ashamed of any of these views, but these would be the views I would be known for - not for being pro-mask/anti-Trump/anti-sedition/anti-gun/pro-environment. But I have considered leaving the GOP numerous times at seeing it devolving into a glorified, mad Trumpish cult. I still remain in it for the purposes of my forum, but in practice, you could consider me a centrist Democrat if you'd prefer to. For instance, in an election featuring a generic Democrat and a generic Republican, I'd likely lean toward the Democrat, unless the GOP candidate was moderate or centrist like I am.

[Spectator]

I F[INKS]ING LOVE IT.

It puts areas west of Rockford in the same vote sink as areas south of Springfield!

I DON'T WORSHIP A CONCEPT, I FOLLOW J.B.

I mean I think that part is really for primary reasons? I guess IL D's would prefer to have Kinzinger/Davis over other R's. Maybe Pritzker is a bit worried about Davis for some reason so he gave him a seat he would probably win in the primary? Along with that maybe Lahood has some friends in the legislature as his sink stays similar as possible instead of taking the North IL parts

Kiplinger's isn't winning any primary. It's clearly just to avoid those areas being split into two R seats so they're merged into one.

Kinzinger wouldn’t win a general election even if by some miracle he won the primary. Too many Republicans would sit out or vote for Newman out of spite.

[Donerail]

Seems like Dems were just as aggressive downstate as expected but less aggressive in Chicagoland. It is badly gerrymandered, but you could produce a more compact map that still shores up Underwood and Newman better than this one does.

Kinzinger would beat Newman in a Biden +6 seat...if he survives primary. Huge if but he would have significant crossover appeal while Newman will have plenty of problems. Dems would be wise to preempt problems and recruit a primary challenger (not named Lipinski).

Could Kinzinger win any GOP primary at this point?

Presumably he's referring to the Democratic primary against Newman. Not sure why they put two incumbent Democrats in the same district.

[Boobs]

My sources tell me that Newman is very concerned about her political future in this new district. Newman is considering switching to the Republican Party in order to win reelection in 2022, which she expects will be a massive Republican wave.

[Devils30]

Seems like Dems were just as aggressive downstate as expected but less aggressive in Chicagoland. It is badly gerrymandered, but you could produce a more compact map that still shores up Underwood and Newman better than this one does.

Kinzinger would beat Newman in a Biden +6 seat...if he survives primary. Huge if but he would have significant crossover appeal while Newman will have plenty of problems. Dems would be wise to preempt problems and recruit a primary challenger (not named Lipinski).

I don't deny that Kinzinger would have crossover appeal in this district but I don't see why Newman in particular would have problems? She's slightly to the left of the average Democrat, sure, but in 2020 she actually overperformed Biden by a tiny amount while most Congressional Democrats ran a couple of points behind him.

Newman voted against the Iron Dome. If the right actually spent resources challenging her she would have a lot of trouble. I also doubt Kinzinger would win a primary but he could definitely beat Newman one on one in a 52-46 Biden seat.

[Gracile]

Seems like Dems were just as aggressive downstate as expected but less aggressive in Chicagoland. It is badly gerrymandered, but you could produce a more compact map that still shores up Underwood and Newman better than this one does.

Kinzinger would beat Newman in a Biden +6 seat...if he survives primary. Huge if but he would have significant crossover appeal while Newman will have plenty of problems. Dems would be wise to preempt problems and recruit a primary challenger (not named Lipinski).

I don't deny that Kinzinger would have crossover appeal in this district but I don't see why Newman in particular would have problems? She's slightly to the left of the average Democrat, sure, but in 2020 she actually overperformed Biden by a tiny amount while most Congressional Democrats ran a couple of points behind him.

The areas where Newman had the most pronounced overperformance (heavily Latino/Asian parts of Chicago - largely a function of presidential trends among non-white not materializing as much downballot) have been drawn out of this district.

[Virginiá]

Not that I think it's doom-worthy, but there is a point to be made that mid-single digit Biden seats aren't guaranteed holds. They could lose in a wave and if their partisan lean sticks throughout the decade, the right Republican could cling to that seat for a few cycles absent a Dem wave knocking them out, like Mike Coffman in CO-6 (although he was an incumbent from the start).

[Devils30]

This map seems designed to go up in flames when Kamala has her 2024 or 2028 run that collapses Dems even more in the midwest.

[lfromnj]

This map seems designed to go up in flames when Kamala has her 2024 or 2028 run that collapses Dems even more in the midwest.

Not sure how. Most Chicagoland seats besides Newman's are pretty upscale or minority heavy and super  safe of course. I guess Foster's isn't that upscale either

The new Bustos seat could be cherry picked a bit more, but it lost a lot of the hardest R trending rurals and has McClean + East Rockford+ North Peoria which are all trending D. Not sure why they made it so weak. They added some extra rurals but a bit more cherry picking could get it double digit Biden .

The South IL seat does have Decatur and Metro East which aren't pretty areas but Springfield and Champaign are great for Democrats.

[Gracile]

Also, Re: Kinzinger, one thing to keep in mind is that he's attacked/alienated a fair chunk of the ILGOP party apparatus including the Chicago GOP and Will County GOP organizations (the latter organization censured him) which are obviously both big parts of this district geographically. I doubt he will have much institutional support and it's easy to see them backing someone else who will trample him in a primary (maybe Mike Fricilone again?).

[DrScholl]

Kinzinger is a not factor. His political career is over period no matter what district he runs in.

[Devils30]

Kinzinger's best chance would be to switch parties, get endorsements from all the Dem establishment figures over Newman. Unlikely at best but you never know.

[lfromnj]

I mean they really don't like Newman lol.

[GALeftist]

I don't think this map is worth dooming over, if Democrats are losing a Biden+6 seat the House is already gone and Republican recruitment in these areas hasn't exactly been stellar in the past. I think Virginia's scenario is plausible, but still probably an edge case. Still wouldn't mind Newman being shored up a little, though!

[Green Line]

[thebeloitmoderate]

Y'all chill over Kinziger and Davis (R) what about the 4 minority Chicago congresspeople's redrawn districts going to look like

[Crumpets]

How much do you want to bet that whatever 5 minute online polemics about gerrymandering are made in the 2020s will look at this map and still use the earmuffs district as the most egregious example of gerrymandering in the country?

[Mr. Illini]

I do appreciate all of the doomers saying that Dems "aren't using their power" here. There may have been some missed opportunities (which could still be fixed before they vote) but they are undoubtedly using their power.

Reserve your fury for Virginia and California.

[Sol]

How much do you want to bet that whatever 5 minute online polemics about gerrymandering are made in the 2020s will look at this map and still use the earmuffs districts as the most egregious example of gerrymandering in the country?

In fairness the earmuffs are no longer needed to do a Latino seat--and haven't been since 2010.

[lfromnj]

How much do you want to bet that whatever 5 minute online polemics about gerrymandering are made in the 2020s will look at this map and still use the earmuffs districts as the most egregious example of gerrymandering in the country?

In fairness the earmuffs are no longer needed to do a Latino seat--and haven't been since 2010.

Yup at this point its just that no one else wants that many hispanics.



Not really enough for 2 seats though without going to those satellite cities. or that area bordering East Hammond but that messes up the black seats.

[DrScholl]

Kinzinger's best chance would be to switch parties, get endorsements from all the Dem establishment figures over Newman. Unlikely at best but you never know.

He's too conservative to be a Democrat and after all the effort that went into electing Newman over a conservative Democrat it's hard to see establishment Democrats backing a party switcher over her.

[Devils30]

I don't think this map is worth dooming over, if Democrats are losing a Biden+6 seat the House is already gone and Republican recruitment in these areas hasn't exactly been stellar in the past. I think Virginia's scenario is plausible, but still probably an edge case. Still wouldn't mind Newman being shored up a little, though!

Yeah, it's still a decent bet to be a 14-3 map in a 2012 or 2020 type of year. And if Dems are losing IL-3, 17 it's probably an R 230-240 House seat year anyway.

[lfromnj]

LOL
https://capitolfax.com/2021/10/15/new-congressional-maps-released/

You can view this map as a series of messages to some Democrats and Democratic constituencies. For instance, the message to Newman seems to be: You have a choice between running against Kinzinger with relatively few Chicago precincts or you can represent a Latino district. I’m told Newman made huge demands and was generally uncooperative.

[Mr. Illini]

Statement from Newman:  

While our team continues to review the draft congressional map that was released earlier today, it is abundantly apparent that what has currently been proposed for Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District is not only retrogressive but substantially diminishes the diverse and progressive voices of Chicago’s Southwest Side and suburbs. I know that IL-03’s constituents will ensure their voices are heard loud and clear at these public hearings over the coming days.”

I look forward to continuing to represent the constituents of Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District.

I bet they make changes to this. Wonder if this was a bit of a warning shot because she was being uncooperative.

[compucomp]

LOL
https://capitolfax.com/2021/10/15/new-congressional-maps-released/

You can view this map as a series of messages to some Democrats and Democratic constituencies. For instance, the message to Newman seems to be: You have a choice between running against Kinzinger with relatively few Chicago precincts or you can represent a Latino district. I’m told Newman made huge demands and was generally uncooperative.

If Mike Madigan were still around, the real reason would be that Newman pissed him off somehow. Is his machine still running like it used with a different leader?