If Biden wins, can Dems still have a net gain in Senate seats in 2022?

[OBD]

Kind of depends on how 2020 plays out. For instance, Democrats would probably lose the GA seat if they pick it up in 2020, and that screws with the math.

That said, it's definitely possible. If Tom Wolf runs, PA should be a gimmie, and the other offensive opportunities (WI, NC, potentially AZ/GA) are better than they are this year. I could see the following scenario as one of the easiest possible 'gain' ones for Democrats.

Gains
PA: Pat Toomey ---> Tom Wolf
NC: Richard Burr ---> Jeff Jackson

Losses
AZ: Mark Kelly ---> Doug Ducey

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly isnt losing and WI would go D before NC

[OBD]

Kelly isnt losing and WI would go D before NC

I'm personally not confident that Wisconsin Dems could pull out a win in a neutral-to-R-leaning year. Also, given FL-2018 (and possibly MT-2020), Ducey would be favored over Kelly due to the "Rick Scott effect".

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Gains: PA (Wolf or Lamb)
Maybe NC or WI?

AZ maybe a loss but it may be too far gone for Rs by that point

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

55/45 Senate

[Nyvin]

Kelly isnt losing and WI would go D before NC

I'm personally not confident that Wisconsin Dems could pull out a win in a neutral-to-R-leaning year. Also, given FL-2018 (and possibly MT-2020), Ducey would be favored over Kelly due to the "Rick Scott effect".

Republicans generally have a pretty terrible track record on winning Senate seats that are crossing over from being Republican to being competitive states,  think Virginia, Nevada, or Colorado.  

Udall's seat in 2010 being the only real exception.

I don't see why Arizona would be much different.

[MT Treasurer]

Really the Iowa thing was just wishful thinking, but why would Wisconsin be favorable to Republicans? It’s an open seat in a pure tossup state, you can’t get more tossup than that. Maybe having Biden in office tilts it slightly R, but I’d put it in a similar position to the 2018 Florida race.

• Republican-trending state which will probably have a R+2 PVI after 2020 (I don’t think calling WI a "pure Tossup" is fair, especially in a midterm under a Democratic president)
• Competent Republican state party
• Fairly high Republican floor
• State doesn’t tend to be kind to the party holding the White House
• State where Democrats are particularly dependent on base turnout (which could be slightly depressed in a Biden midterm, certainly more so than in 2018)
• The Republican bench isn’t worse than the Democratic bench (arguably it’s better, but that’s debatable)

Unless Republicans nominate an awful candidate (which is possible but not particularly likely—WI isn’t AL), I’m rating this Lean R, not Tossup. Apparently this is a "bold" prediction, but by the time election day rolls around, Evers will probably be in a worse position than the Republican candidate for Senate. People really underestimate how wildly the pendulum can swing in two years, and WI isn’t even as Democratic as WV/OH/MT are Republican (all of which the Democrats held in 2018 even though there was no war or recession dragging down the incumbent's approval numbers). 2022 doesn’t need to be as ugly for Democrats as 2006/2010/2014/2018 were for the incumbent's party for WI to be Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Really the Iowa thing was just wishful thinking, but why would Wisconsin be favorable to Republicans? It’s an open seat in a pure tossup state, you can’t get more tossup than that. Maybe having Biden in office tilts it slightly R, but I’d put it in a similar position to the 2018 Florida race.

• Republican-trending state which will probably have a R+2 PVI after 2020 (I don’t think calling WI a "pure Tossup" is fair, especially in a midterm under a Democratic president)
• Competent Republican state party
• Fairly high Republican floor
• State doesn’t tend to be kind to the party holding the White House
• State where Democrats are particularly dependent on base turnout (which could be slightly depressed in a Biden midterm, certainly more so than in 2018)
• The Republican bench isn’t worse than the Democratic bench (arguably it’s better, but that’s debatable)

Unless Republicans nominate an awful candidate (which is possible but not particularly likely—WI isn’t AL), I’m rating this Lean R, not Tossup. Apparently this is a "bold" prediction, but by the time election day rolls around, Evers will probably be in a worse position than the Republican candidate for Senate. People really underestimate how wildly the pendulum can swing in two years, and WI isn’t even as Democratic as WV/OH/MT are Republican (all of which the Democrats held in 2018 even though there was no war or recession dragging down the incumbent's approval numbers). 2022 doesn’t need to be as ugly for Democrats as 2006/2010/2014/2018 were for the incumbent's partey for WI to be Lean R.

The only person that would run a successful campaign in WI is Scott Walker, this is why Johnson is retiring, he doesnt want to raise money. This is why Biden is gonna pass campaign finance reform, so that Walker and Toomey can be defeated. 55/45 Senate, with Dems getting 2 extra Seats from DC statehood

[2016]

This Thread here is sooo hilarious! Nothing will get passed in 2021/22 if Biden wins. Trump will threaten every GOP Senator that their head will be on a pike if they pass Democratic Legislation under Biden.

Every competitive Senate Seat will be at least Lean R in 2022 if Biden wins the Presidency in 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No, just no they won't unless Biden is exremely popular. The 2018 senate map is much more favorable to the GOP than the 2022 senate map is to Democrats, since all Republican held sets are in what are considered "tossup" seats in an even year at best. That being said, the GOP doesn't have very many dem targets other than NH, NV, and maybe AZ or GA if dems win those seats in 2020. There might actually be no flips in 2022 senate which ould be quite interesting to see. Dems can break even but are unlikely to net seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This Thread here is sooo hilarious! Nothing will get passed in 2021/22 if Biden wins. Trump will threaten every GOP Senator that their head will be on a pike if they pass Democratic Legislation under Biden.

Every competitive Senate Seat will be at least Lean R in 2022 if Biden wins the Presidency in 2020.

We dont even have candidates for WI and PA. Trump.has pending charges against him in Federal CRT like Bill Cosby when he leaves office

[S019]

PA moves to tossup, if Toomey retires

WI moves to Lean R, if Johnson runs again

IA moves to Safe R, if Grassley runs again

MO moves to Safe R, if Blunt retires

NV moves to Lean R, if CCM retires or is picked as VP and an interim Dem incumbent is appointed

NOTE: I assume Democrats win the AZ and GA Specials in 2020
If McSally wins, keep AZ as Lean R

If Loeffler or Collins win, keep GA as tossup


So, for a net gain Dems would sweep all of the tossups, as they have 4 seats (AZ, GA, NH, NV), and they are favored to lose 1 (AZ), so winning both remaining tossups (WI and NC) would give Democrats a net gain of 1. Realistically, it won't happen, and these races probably break away from Democrats as the cycle progresses, however this far away any predictions are just pure speculation.

[Lognog]

PA moves to tossup, if Toomey retires

WI moves to Lean R, if Johnson runs again

IA moves to Safe R, if Grassley runs again

MO moves to Safe R, if Blunt retires

NV moves to Lean R, if CCM retires or is picked as VP and an interim Dem incumbent is appointed

NOTE: I assume Democrats win the AZ and GA Specials in 2020
If McSally wins, keep AZ as Lean R

If Loeffler or Collins win, keep GA as tossup


So, for a net gain Dems would sweep all of the tossups, as they have 4 seats (AZ, GA, NH, NV), and they are favored to lose 1 (AZ), so winning both remaining tossups (WI and NC) would give Democrats a net gain of 1. Realistically, it won't happen, and these races probably break away from Democrats as the cycle progresses, however this far away any predictions are just pure speculation.

I would say that WA is safe D, GA and NC at lean R, FL at likely R, Az as a tossup  and IA MO and OH as safe R

[ProgressiveModerate]

[brucejoel99]

This Thread here is sooo hilarious! Nothing will get passed in 2021/22 if Biden wins. Trump will threaten every GOP Senator that their head will be on a pike if they pass Democratic Legislation under Biden.

Every competitive Senate Seat will be at least Lean R in 2022 if Biden wins the Presidency in 2020.

K.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No the Senate map is the same as Gov map, Dems will win WI, PA and keep AZ, as Dems will pick up AZ Gov race

Senate map 2022

Gov map, 2022 replicate Senate map, Evers and Sisolak will be in tough races. Fetterman will win PA Gov

[Joseph Cao]

Probably the most realistic map so far, but why in the world are Blumenthal and Wyden only rated Likely D? CT and OR won't trend towards Rs so quickly.

[We Live in Black and White]

This Thread here is sooo hilarious! Nothing will get passed in 2021/22 if Biden wins. Trump will threaten every GOP Senator that their head will be on a pike if they pass Democratic Legislation under Biden.

Every competitive Senate Seat will be at least Lean R in 2022 if Biden wins the Presidency in 2020.

Whatever drug you're smoking to look into alternate realities, I'd like some.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know I have said some contradictory things, but I have I have never started threads and I have to point this out: Progressive moderate said AK Senate race, which is likely R, is gonna be competetive in 2020, and AL Gross will win; consequently, now he gives a map that shows every competetive seat going R, no.