If Biden wins, can Dems still have a net gain in Senate seats in 2022?

[Catalyst138]

Traditionally the party in power loses Senate seats in the midterms. However this was not true in 2018, due to an unusually R-friendly Senate map.

In 2022 the shoe may be on the other foot since the Senate map is very favorable to Democrats. They don’t have any red state or swing state seats to defend besides lean-D Nevada. There are also multiple possible pickups in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and maybe even Iowa (if Grassley retires)

Can Dems gain Senate seats in 2022, and possibly take it back even with a Democratic president?

[Nyvin]

Yes, definitely.   The map is extremely favorable.

[Meatball Ron]

Eh we have seats to defend in New Hampshire and Colorado, too. I think both incumbents (esp. Bennet) start out favored, but those races will be competitive.

I think WI and NC are strong pickup opportunities given they'll be open seats, but start out toss-up at best (NC likely closer to Lean R given the bench). PA might be challenging given Toomey always seems to pull it out - though maybe this is the year he doesn't. Iowa would be very, very tough.

I'd expect the results to be around net neutral or D+1. That assumes Biden isn't extremely unpopular for whatever reason. If he is, Dems will lose seats.

[Not Me, Us]

Eh we have seats to defend in New Hampshire and Colorado, too. I think both incumbents (esp. Bennet) start out favored, but those races will be competitive.

I think WI and NC are strong pickup opportunities given they'll be open seats, but start out toss-up at best (NC likely closer to Lean R given the bench). PA might be challenging given Toomey always seems to pull it out - though maybe this is the year he doesn't. Iowa would be very, very tough.

I'd expect the results to be around net neutral or D+1. That assumes Biden isn't extremely unpopular for whatever reason. If he is, Dems will lose seats.

I've heard rumors that Toomey might actually run for Governor. If that's the case, the Senate race might start out as lean D. Republicans have virtually no bench in PA.

[Catalyst138]

Eh we have seats to defend in New Hampshire and Colorado, too. I think both incumbents (esp. Bennet) start out favored, but those races will be competitive.

I think WI and NC are strong pickup opportunities given they'll be open seats, but start out toss-up at best (NC likely closer to Lean R given the bench). PA might be challenging given Toomey always seems to pull it out - though maybe this is the year he doesn't. Iowa would be very, very tough.

I'd expect the results to be around net neutral or D+1. That assumes Biden isn't extremely unpopular for whatever reason. If he is, Dems will lose seats.

I’ve heard Bennet is pretty popular, and CO is becoming less and less favorable for the GOP as time goes on. I suppose there’s an outside chance of the GOP picking it up, but I don’t see it.

I forgot about NH though. Still a slight lean D state but it’s certainly competitive.

[Not Me, Us]

Eh we have seats to defend in New Hampshire and Colorado, too. I think both incumbents (esp. Bennet) start out favored, but those races will be competitive.

I think WI and NC are strong pickup opportunities given they'll be open seats, but start out toss-up at best (NC likely closer to Lean R given the bench). PA might be challenging given Toomey always seems to pull it out - though maybe this is the year he doesn't. Iowa would be very, very tough.

I'd expect the results to be around net neutral or D+1. That assumes Biden isn't extremely unpopular for whatever reason. If he is, Dems will lose seats.

I’ve heard Bennet is pretty popular, and CO is becoming less and less favorable for the GOP as time goes on. I suppose there’s an outside chance of the GOP picking it up, but I don’t see it.

I forgot about NH though. Still a slight lean D state but it’s certainly competitive.

Especially if Sununu runs.

[Woody]

AZ: Ducey (If McSally loses)
PA: Fitzpatrick
CT: Stefanowski
CO: Owens
NH: Sununu
NV: Cegavske
MD: Hogan
VT: Scott
WI: Ryan
OR: Buehler

^Guaranteed GOP senate for 6 more years^

[Roll Roons]

AZ: Ducey (If McSally loses)
PA: Fitzpatrick
CT: Stefanowski
CO: Owens
NH: Sununu
NV: Cegavske
MD: Hogan
VT: Scott
WI: Ryan
OR: Buehler

^Guaranteed GOP senate for 6 more years^

Might as well add Dold or Kinzinger for IL.

[MT Treasurer]

They could still gain seats in the Senate in 2022 (most likely in PA/NC/GA; Republicans would start out favored to hold every other R-held seat, including WI), but the idea that the 2022 map is as favorable to Democrats as the 2018 map was to Republicans is ridiculous, as is the idea that Iowa would be competitive in a Biden midterm.

[Catalyst138]

They could still gain seats in the Senate in 2022 (most likely in PA/NC/GA; Republicans would start out favored to hold every other R-held seat, including WI), but the idea that the 2022 map is as favorable to Democrats as the 2018 map was to Republicans is ridiculous, as is the idea that Iowa would be competitive in a Biden midterm.

Really the Iowa thing was just wishful thinking, but why would Wisconsin be favorable to Republicans? It’s an open seat in a pure tossup state, you can’t get more tossup than that. Maybe having Biden in office tilts it slightly R, but I’d put it in a similar position to the 2018 Florida race.

[Orser67]

I can't rule it out, but I certainly wouldn't count on it. The map is favorable, but not nearly as favorable as it was for Republicans in 2018, and it's gonna be tough for the party to net gains when they're targeting swing states rather than blue states. Yes, Republicans picked up FL in 2018, but they also lost seats in NV and AZ.

[Tekken_Guy]

Here are the best GOP picks for Senate in 2022 IMO:

AZ - Doug Ducey
CO - Cory Gardner
CT - Sue Hatfield
GA - Chris Carr
IL - Adam Kinzinger
MD - Larry Hogan
NV - Mark Amodei
NH - Chris Sununu
OR - Knute Buehler
VT - Phil Scott
WA - Jaime Herrera Beutler

Also to replace potential retirements

AL - Gary Palmer
AR - Leslie Rutledge
FL - Pam Bondi
IA - Kim Reynolds
KS - Mike Pompeo
MO - Ann Wagner
NC - Mark Walker
ND - Kelly Armstrong
PA - Lloyd Smucker
WI - Mike Gallagher

[We Live in Black and White]

AZ: Ducey (If McSally loses)
PA: Fitzpatrick
CT: Stefanowski
CO: Owens
NH: Sununu
NV: Cegavske
MD: Hogan
VT: Scott
WI: Ryan
OR: Buehler

^Guaranteed GOP senate for 6 more years^

I was gonna make a prediction, but then I got high...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH should Tim Ryan run, yea Portman can lose
NC open
Wi open

Net gain of 3

PA if Toomey retires or if we get a got candidate

NH, NV and IL will be competetive

Kelly is safe, Dems should pick up open seat AZ Gov and Kelly wins reelection

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

I could see a scenario where Dems lose the House but gain seats in the Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I could see a scenario where Dems lose the House but gain seats in the Senate.

Reapportionment and Dems net gain of Govs in 2018 has insulated Dems from loss of the House after 2020

[Suburbia]

I could see a scenario where Dems lose the House but gain seats in the Senate.

Yes, a reverse 2018.

A cold civil war.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I could see a scenario where Dems lose the House but gain seats in the Senate.


Really, the 2022 Senate map duplicates the 2022 Gov races and all our inc Senates and inc Govs will get reelected with the exception of Kelly from KS Gov defeated and AZ Kelly for Sen winning and pickup of AZ Gov race . This insulates the House and reappointment this time favors the House

[MillennialModerate]

ALOT of factors.

If Biden wins in 2020 AND

Dems win enough legislatures and Governorships to make redistricting favorable to Dems.

Dems win a trifecta and govern moderately while still passing popular legislation.

The economy is in good shape.

IN that case, Dems hold onto House and might gain a seat in the Senate.

Which would set up a fascinating 2024 where the Dems would have the shot of a rare 3 election in a row victory (20,22,24).

It’s possible if they play there cards right

[Yoda]

Not only could they, they probably will. Dems have great targets that start out leaning their way in 2022 due to unpopular republican incumbents who marched in lockstep with Trump and refused to impeach him. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina are the likeliest Dem pickups. Florida is the next most likely followed by Ohio. I don't see any plausible republican pickups at this time. New Hampshire is the most believable and it's still a stretch to believe republicans can knock off Shaheen.

[We Live in Black and White]

It's becoming likelier by the day. Republicans lived to regret the Great Depression long after recovery began.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Dems should get a net gain of two.

Lean D
Nevada:  C. Cortez Masto (D)
New Hampshire:  Maggie Hassan (D)
Pennsylvania:  Pat Toomey (R) --> Connor Lamb (D)
Arizona:  Mark Kelly (D)
North Carolina:  Richard Burr (R) --> Josh Stein (D)
Georgia:  Raphael Warnock (D)

Lean R
Wisconsin:  Ron Johnson (R)
Florida:  Marco Rubio (R)
Ohio:  Rob Portman (R)
Iowa:  Chuck Grassley (R) --> (R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems should get a net gain of two.

Lean D
Nevada:  C. Cortez Masto (D)
New Hampshire:  Maggie Hassan (D)
Pennsylvania:  Pat Toomey (R) --> Connor Lamb (D)
Arizona:  Mark Kelly (D)
North Carolina:  Richard Burr (R) --> Josh Stein (D)
Georgia:  Raphael Warnock (D)

Lean R
Wisconsin:  Ron Johnson (R)
Florida:  Marco Rubio (R)
Ohio:  Rob Portman (R)
Iowa:  Chuck Grassley (R) --> (R)

Johnson and Burr are retiring

Tilt D IL, AZ, CO, NV, NH, WI
Tossup NC and PA
Tilt R FL, GA, OH, IA

[Heebie Jeebie]

Dems should get a net gain of two.

Lean D
Nevada:  C. Cortez Masto (D)
New Hampshire:  Maggie Hassan (D)
Pennsylvania:  Pat Toomey (R) --> Connor Lamb (D)
Arizona:  Mark Kelly (D)
North Carolina:  Richard Burr (R) --> Josh Stein (D)
Georgia:  Raphael Warnock (D)

Lean R
Wisconsin:  Ron Johnson (R)
Florida:  Marco Rubio (R)
Ohio:  Rob Portman (R)
Iowa:  Chuck Grassley (R) --> (R)

Johnson and Burr are retiring

I'll believe Johnson is retiring only when the 2022 primaries are over.

[Water Hazard]

Unlike Republicans in 2018, Democrats don't have any "low-hanging fruit" in 2022. All GOP seats are in states that are neutral at worst for them, and in a Biden midterm they'd probably start out as favorites to hold all of them, even if some incumbents retire. Dem seats in NH/NV/CO would likely be competitive, not to mention AZ/GA (if they win those this year), which would be even tougher holds.

A scenario where Democrats net seats in a Biden midterm is one where he is a popular president and where the national environment is not favorable to the GOP. We almost certainly wouldn't see a reverse redux of 2018, as the 2022 Senate map is far more neutral.