Will Michigan be a tough state for Joe to win in the general?

[SN2903]

Most of the polling shows Bernie doing better in MI than Joe and in 2016 Hillary was weak in MI. Biden is a similar establishment type candidate that could struggle in MI.

[Green Line]

No.

[Mr. Smith]

Yes.

At the very minimum, it will be more Republican than the total vote.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

RCP has Biden's average over Sanders. My own spreadsheet has Sanders up by an average of 4.1 while Biden is up by an average of 6.1. Biden would outperform Sanders here in the GE.

[Catalyst138]

Probably harder than PA but easier than WI.

[Gracile]

Yes, at the very least Democrats shouldn't take it for granted based on what happened in 2016.

[Shadows]

Yes. Biden is unelectable in the Mid-West & will lose Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. Trump will savage him on NAFTA & TPP.

[Xing]

Tough as in it won't automatically flip back and he'll have to take it seriously? Absolutely.

[TDAS04]

It will obviously be competitive.  It’s tilt or slightly lean Biden, so he can’t take it for granted.

[Gass3268]

Yes. Biden is unelectable in the Mid-West & will lose Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. Trump will savage him on NAFTA & TPP.

Autobailout bro, also no one cares about TPP anymore.

[SN2903]

Yes. Biden is unelectable in the Mid-West & will lose Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. Trump will savage him on NAFTA & TPP.

Autobailout bro, also no one cares about TPP anymore.

If you don't think Michigan cares about NAFTA and TPP you are wrong. People care esp. about NAFTA and Joe has not had a good record on trade just like Hillary. The auto bailout was like 12 years ago. This isn't 2012 anymore.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Sanders is a better fit for MI, but it's still Lean D with Biden as the nominee.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Yes. Biden is unelectable in the Mid-West & will lose Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. Trump will savage him on NAFTA & TPP.

Autobailout bro, also no one cares about TPP anymore.

If you don't think Michigan cares about NAFTA and TPP you are wrong. People care esp. about NAFTA and Joe has not had a good record on trade just like Hillary. The auto bailout was like 12 years ago. This isn't 2012 anymore.

Michiganders were so outraged by NAFTA, they only gave Bill Clinton a 13-point victory in 1996.

[SN2903]

Yes. Biden is unelectable in the Mid-West & will lose Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. Trump will savage him on NAFTA & TPP.

Autobailout bro, also no one cares about TPP anymore.

If you don't think Michigan cares about NAFTA and TPP you are wrong. People care esp. about NAFTA and Joe has not had a good record on trade just like Hillary. The auto bailout was like 12 years ago. This isn't 2012 anymore.

Michiganders were so outraged by NAFTA, they only gave Bill Clinton a 13-point victory in 1996.

The long term effects didn't hit big until the early 00s.

[Gass3268]

Yes. Biden is unelectable in the Mid-West & will lose Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. Trump will savage him on NAFTA & TPP.

Autobailout bro, also no one cares about TPP anymore.

If you don't think Michigan cares about NAFTA and TPP you are wrong. People care esp. about NAFTA and Joe has not had a good record on trade just like Hillary. The auto bailout was like 12 years ago. This isn't 2012 anymore.

Nobody cares

[Nightcore Nationalist]

It's a pure toss-up.  Personality wise Biden is better than Clinton and his AA support is strong. Granted, it's had another 4 years to trend.

[SN2903]

Yes. Biden is unelectable in the Mid-West & will lose Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. Trump will savage him on NAFTA & TPP.

Autobailout bro, also no one cares about TPP anymore.

If you don't think Michigan cares about NAFTA and TPP you are wrong. People care esp. about NAFTA and Joe has not had a good record on trade just like Hillary. The auto bailout was like 12 years ago. This isn't 2012 anymore.

Nobody cares

Dems will choke just like 2016.

[SN2903]

It's a pure toss-up.  Personality wise Biden is better than Clinton and his AA support is strong. Granted, it's had another 4 years to trend.

I don't think Biden does a better with the AA vote than she did. Obama isn't on the ballot. Also I think that's the conventional wisdom about Biden's personality. Trump does far better with the WWC than any dem does right now.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Yes. Biden is unelectable in the Mid-West & will lose Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. Trump will savage him on NAFTA & TPP.

Autobailout bro, also no one cares about TPP anymore.

If you don't think Michigan cares about NAFTA and TPP you are wrong. People care esp. about NAFTA and Joe has not had a good record on trade just like Hillary. The auto bailout was like 12 years ago. This isn't 2012 anymore.

"Forget the auto bailout 12 years ago, but if you don't think Michigan cares about something that happened 26 years ago you are wrong."

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Yes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We all must remember Gary Johnson took 4 percent of the vote and he isnt playing spoiler this time

[SN2903]

Yes. Biden is unelectable in the Mid-West & will lose Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. Trump will savage him on NAFTA & TPP.

Autobailout bro, also no one cares about TPP anymore.

If you don't think Michigan cares about NAFTA and TPP you are wrong. People care esp. about NAFTA and Joe has not had a good record on trade just like Hillary. The auto bailout was like 12 years ago. This isn't 2012 anymore.

"Forget the auto bailout 12 years ago, but if you don't think Michigan cares about something that happened 26 years ago you are wrong."

NAFTA is different. People remember bad things more than good things.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Yes. Biden is unelectable in the Mid-West & will lose Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. Trump will savage him on NAFTA & TPP.

Autobailout bro, also no one cares about TPP anymore.

If you don't think Michigan cares about NAFTA and TPP you are wrong. People care esp. about NAFTA and Joe has not had a good record on trade just like Hillary. The auto bailout was like 12 years ago. This isn't 2012 anymore.

Michiganders were so outraged by NAFTA, they only gave Bill Clinton a 13-point victory in 1996.

The long term effects didn't hit big until the early 00s.

Total US domestic vehicle production (in thousands):

1991   8,790 <- recession
1992   9,691 <- recession
1993   10,855
NAFTA ratified
1994   12,239
1995   11,995
1996   11,830
1997   12,131
1998   12,003
1999   13,025
2000   12,774
Dot-com bust
2001   11,425
2002   12,280
2003   12,087
2004   11,960 <- gas prices skyrocket
2005   11,947
2006   11,260
2007   10,752
2008   8,672 <- financial crisis
2009   5,710 <- great recession
2010   7,744 <- great recession
2011   8,662 <- great recession
2012   10,336
2013   11,066
2014   11,661
2015   12,105
2016   12,178
2017   11,190

Source: https://www.bts.gov/content/annual-us-motor-vehicle-production-and-factory-wholesale-sales

We're making just as many vehicles. We're doing so with fewer jobs. People understand this.

[ProudModerate2]

It will obviously be competitive.  It’s tilt or slightly lean Biden, so he can’t take it for granted.

[ProudModerate2]

Yes. Biden is unelectable in the Mid-West & will lose Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. Trump will savage him on NAFTA & TPP.

Autobailout bro, also no one cares about TPP anymore.

If you don't think Michigan cares about NAFTA and TPP you are wrong. People care esp. about NAFTA and Joe has not had a good record on trade just like Hillary. The auto bailout was like 12 years ago. This isn't 2012 anymore.

"Forget the auto bailout 12 years ago, but if you don't think Michigan cares about something that happened 26 years ago you are wrong."

NAFTA is different. People remember bad things more than good things.

Everything is "different" to you.
You are well known in Atlas for only believing and seeing what you want, and ignoring/down-playing everything else.
We know your game, and no one is falling for it.