Super Tuesday Results Thread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Democrats outvoted Republicans by around 1.5 million in TX in 2008 , and won Collin by an even large margin in the primary than this year so this is a terrible comparison.

We could actually flip Collin this year. It might even be likely. Denton is probably another cycle away, though.

Unless this is another 1980 Collin won’t flip

2012 election in Collin County, TX: R+31.5
2016 election in Collin County, TX: R+16.7
Swing: D+14.8

It isn't the most likely scenario, but a 17 point swing in Collin isn't impossible. It swung almost 15 points last time, and it is growing faster than almost anywhere else in the country with new residents probably being 70-30 Dem.

I could see at best see a 5 point deficit and most of that swing is already baked in and new residents at most would provide another 4-5 point swing and my prediction is a 7 point Dem swing there

Again you provide no evidence to support your proclamations

Lmao And neither do you except use an extremely extremely lazy analysis of trends and lmao using 2018 and instead of 2016 the baseline on where to start.

My basis is much more on conventional wisdom most of main stream media and pundits use

It is, but Collin is a special case (like GA), where trends outweigh conventional midterm-presidential swings and we can expect each election to be to the left of the one prior.

Not really , Republican turnout was not that high in 2018 or those Collin numbers wouldn’t look as impressive .

I would use Trump 2016 vs Beto 2018 as the starting line then not Cruz vs Beto . 

Lmao it absolutely was high. It was on par with 2016!

No it wasn’t , and % of electorate is always a super misleading stat .

How about this if Trump wins Collin by more than 5 or 6 points , you will put in your sig that Trends do not equal destiny and Say OSR was right about Texas  for 3 months while if he wins Collin by less than  that  I will put Trends Are Real in my sig and say I was wrong for 3 months in my sig

Well you are constantly wrong and everyone already knows it so I don’t see what I have to gain from that. But sure, I guess I’ll take that up since there’s minimal chance Trump does better in DFW than Cruz did (hint: Trump is like 99% of the reason why Texas Republicans got shellshocked in 2018)

[Badger]

The fact you two are even debating whether or not Collin and Denton will flip this election versus another cycle or so is in and of itself compelling evidence as to just how hard Texas is shifting. Even a few years ago the thought of these counties being even remotely competitive would have been considered absurd.

[Brittain33]

I agree that we should consider Beto a high-water mark for Dems in suburban Texas for now, not a point on an endless upward line.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I agree that we should consider Beto a high-water mark for Dems in suburban Texas for now, not a point on an endless upward line.

Why on earth would we assume that when Trump is polling worse than Cruz did? People also assumed Clinton ‘16 was the high water mark in the Texas suburbs because only something about Cruz winning back Never Trumpers or something. Look how that turned out.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I agree that we should consider Beto a high-water mark for Dems in suburban Texas for now, not a point on an endless upward line.

Why on earth would we assume that when Trump is polling worse than Cruz did? People also assumed Clinton ‘16 was the high water mark in the Texas suburbs because only something about Cruz winning back Never Trumpers or something. Look how that turned out.

By your logic the Rust Belt should have been Likely R in 2012

[Green Line]

What a silly hill to die on.  Of course it seems incredibly likely that Collin County will vote Dem if not 2020 then 2024.  Im sure we probably had people making the same arguments here about Gwinnett County in 2016.  Theres no way it could trend so fast!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I agree that we should consider Beto a high-water mark for Dems in suburban Texas for now, not a point on an endless upward line.

Why on earth would we assume that when Trump is polling worse than Cruz did? People also assumed Clinton ‘16 was the high water mark in the Texas suburbs because only something about Cruz winning back Never Trumpers or something. Look how that turned out.

By your logic the Rust Belt should have been Likely R in 2012

Nice straw man, but I’m capable of realizing there are nuances to these things. However, there is no damn nuance about the Texas trends to be had. There isn’t a single sign to show that the trend has slowed down one iota since Trump came along

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

What a silly hill to die on.  Of course it seems incredibly likely that Collin County will vote Dem if not 2020 then 2024.  Im sure we probably had people making the same arguments here about Gwinnett County in 2016.  Theres no way it could trend so fast!

Gwinnett and Cobb counties are actually perfect examples.

On the flip side, how many people would’ve guessed in March of 2016 that Luzerne County (an Obama + 5 county) would be won by Trump by 20%? I would guess not even SN2903 would’ve predicted that one

[darklordoftech]

What did or didn’t happen on Super Tuesday as far as downballot races go?

[n1240]

About 13793 new Democratic ballots counted in Orange County:

Sanders: 83236 (35.77%) -> 86885 (35.29%)
Biden: 57078 (24.53%) -> 61845 (25.12%)
Bloomberg 36310 (15.60%) -> 38281 (15.55%)
Warren 22671 (9.74%) -> 24244 (9.85%)

[Gass3268]

Probably over 1 million votes left to count in Los Angeles County.

https://twitter.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1235740347113680896?s=20

[GeneralMacArthur]

Anyone have estimates for what the final CA numbers will look like?

[Gass3268]

Anyone have estimates for what the final CA numbers will look like?

In the past they have had turnout numbers by the end of the week.

[Harvey Updyke Jr🌹]

Before one of the mods swooped in and deleted all of my posts the other morning because my post count was lower than most, I tried to address one of the Biden posters calling Sanders supporters conspiracy theorists for suggesting an organized effort to get Pete and Klob to drop out and for they and Beto to endorse.

I stated that it had been reported on by multiple outlets that it did happen and that Obama spearheaded the effort.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/looking-obama-s-hidden-hand-candidate-coalescing-around-biden-n1147471

So it wasn't a conspiracy theory, Creepy Joes... just a conspiracy.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Before one of the mods swooped in and deleted all of my posts the other morning because my post count was lower than most, I tried to address one of the Biden posters calling Sanders supporters conspiracy theorists for suggesting an organized effort to get Pete and Klob to drop out and for they and Beto to endorse.

I stated that it had been reported on by multiple outlets that it did happen and that Obama spearheaded the effort.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/looking-obama-s-hidden-hand-candidate-coalescing-around-biden-n1147471

So it wasn't a conspiracy theory, Creepy Joes... just a conspiracy.

You should have a Georgia avatar instead, because you're just a peach, aren't you?

[Harvey Updyke Jr🌹]

Before one of the mods swooped in and deleted all of my posts the other morning because my post count was lower than most, I tried to address one of the Biden posters calling Sanders supporters conspiracy theorists for suggesting an organized effort to get Pete and Klob to drop out and for they and Beto to endorse.

I stated that it had been reported on by multiple outlets that it did happen and that Obama spearheaded the effort.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/looking-obama-s-hidden-hand-candidate-coalescing-around-biden-n1147471

So it wasn't a conspiracy theory, Creepy Joes... just a conspiracy.

You should have a Georgia avatar instead, because you're just a peach, aren't you?

Yea how dare I challenge someone making sh**t up.

I've been a political nerd way before Bernie Sanders came along.  Never let that stuff fly then, and I won't do it now.

[Gass3268]

California Estimated Unprocessed Ballots Report

There are still more ballots that will be coming and they will be counted as long as they are postmarked on Tuesday.

[n1240]

California Estimated Unprocessed Ballots Report

There are still more ballots that will be coming and they will be counted as long as they are postmarked on Tuesday.

Looks like there might be close to 4 million outstanding with the consideration that LA county isn't updated here, postmarked ballots are still arriving, and some counties like Sacramento county and Orange county may have provisionals that they haven't provided an estimated amount for.

[NOVA Green]

San Francisco Co... CA

We have actually had two post Election Night updates:

505k Registered Voters:

2012:   (83-14 Obama)
2016:   (84- 7 HRC)

2016 DEM PRIM:    216.9k DEM PRIM Votes

(54% HRC-  46% Sanders)

2020 DEM PRIM--- Election Night (120.9k DEM PRIM VOTES)

Bernie---          39,571   (32.7%)
Biden---           26,605   (22.0%)
Bloomberg--     15,800   (13.1%)
Warren---         25,684   (21.2%)
Pete---               6,865   ( 5.7%)
Amy---               2,259   (1.9%)
Others---            4,091   (3.4%)

2020 DEM PRIM--- 3/4 Update (150.5k DEM PRIM VOTES)     +29.6k Votes
         
Bernie---          47,705   (31.7%)     -1.0%
Biden---           26,605   (21.4%)     -0.6%
Bloomberg--     15,800   (13.3%)      +0.2%
Warren---         25,684   (21.8%)     +0.6%
Pete---               6,865   ( 6.2%)      +0.5%
Amy---               2,259   ( 2.1%)      +0.2%
Others---            4,091   (3.5%)       +0.1%


2020 DEM PRIM--- 3/5 Update (201.7k DEM PRIM VOTES)     +51.2k Votes  from 3/4/20
         
Bernie---          64,912   (32.2%)   +0.5% from 3/4      -0.5% from ED
Biden---           47,007   (23.3%)   +1.9% from 3/4      +1.3% from ED
Bloomberg--     24,161   (12.0%)    -1.3% from 3/4      -1.1% from ED
Warren---         46,776   (23.2%)    +1.4% from 3/4     +2.0% from ED
Pete---               9,846    (4.9%)     -1.3% from 3/4      -0.8% from ED
Amy---               3,425    (1.7%)    -0.4% from 3/4       -0.2% from ED
Others---            5,577    (2.8%)     -0.7% from 3/4      -0.6% from ED

So what does this all mean???

If we look at the difference between ED numbers, the 3/4/20 Update, and the 3/5/30 Update we are starting to see how some the waves in vote counting are playing out in one larger California County...

The Election Night Results were likely a mixture of "early/early Absentees...

The 3/4/20 Update appears to have included a wave of absentee ballots cast after IA/NH, but apparently pre-SC

The 3/5/20 Update appears to have included a decent chunk of the same-day votes, so for example 170k DEM ballots cast it's roughly a 2:1 VbM vs Same Day...

So although we really don't have an estimate for how many votes are out there yet, bottom line it is looking like this will be significantly higher participation in the DEM PRIM in SF County than we have seen before....

Needless to say, it is extremely interesting that Warren is currently on the verge of toppling Biden for 2nd, although we will see how this holds out....

It does appear based on the numbers thus far looking at the 12th Congressional District that both Warren,Bernie, and Biden performed extremely well on the ED vote.... (Understandably).

Haven't really delved into too much to see if we have actual precinct results yet, but here's a link to some potential goodies...

https://sfelections.sfgov.org/march-3-2020-election-results-detailed-reports

I seem to recall back in '16 that Bernie won the Mission, HRC did well in the Castro, and the heavily Chinese-American precincts in the SW side of the City.... but it will be interesting to do compare/contrasts between the '16 and '20 election once all the votes are counted as interesting compare/contrast in a City where neighborhood politics and political coalitions sometimes transcend political orientation....

[Oryxslayer]

San Francisco Co... CA

We have actually had two post Election Night updates:
 snip

Here was an initial map I made before the subsequent ballots, a map which I intend to update later on.

[Coastal Elitist]

It's embarrassing how long it takes for California to count the vote. Larger countries count faster than this it really is unacceptable how slow this.

[NOVA Green]

San Diego County--- CA

We have our first post Election Night Update...

1,826,138  TOT Registered Voters:

2012 GE: (53-45 Obama)
2016 GE: (56-37 HRC)

2016 DEM PRIM: (418.3k DEM PRIM Voters)

(52%-48% HRC vs Sanders)

2020 DEM PRIM: Election Night (263.1k Votes)

Bernie:               80,540    Votes  (30.6%)
Biden:                65,869    Votes  (25.0%)
Bloomberg:          39,603   Votes  (15.0%)
Warren:               32,837   Votes   (12.5%)
Pete:                   22,069   Votes   ( 8.4%)
Amy:                   9,646     Votes   ( 3.7%)
Others:                12,582   Votes   ( 4.8%)

2020 DEM PRIM: 3/5 Update  (301.6k Votes)        +38.5k votes from ED

Bernie:               91,626    Votes  (30.4%)     -0.2% from ED
Biden:                79,279    Votes  (26.3%)     +1.3% from ED
Bloomberg:         44,487    Votes  (14.7%)     -0.3% from ED
Warren:               38,615   Votes   (12.8%)    +0.3% from ED
Pete:                   23,655    Votes   ( 7.8%)    -0.6% from ED
Amy:                   10,448    Votes   ( 3.5%)    +0.2% from ED
Others:                13,500    Votes   ( 4.5%)    -0.3% from ED

So wtf is going on here???

Okay we can look at a Turnout by precinct, but really what is that gonna tell us at this point?

https://www.livevoterturnout.com/SanDiego/LiveResults/en/Index_8.html

The late Biden jump might likely appear to be a mixture of in person ED numbers, combined with possibly with some of the post IA/NV numbers, but regardless, again I would not be surprised if 2020 San Diego County is significantly higher than 2016 DEM PRIM numbers, in not only a County with a growing population, but additionally tons of REG NPP Voters that want change in Trump's America...

Time will tell, but this is at least a fixed data point to assess how the VbMs are working out in this most unusual California DEM PRIM...

[NOVA Green]

San Francisco Co... CA

We have actually had two post Election Night updates:
 snip

Here was an initial map I made before the subsequent ballots, a map which I intend to update later on.

You totally rock Oryxslayer!!!!

Now can someone please delve around in their cupboard and pull up the '16 DEM PRIM map by precinct in the City???   

I know I've seen it before somewhere, but will take some delving to find it....

[Tintrlvr]

Pretty interesting stratification by income there, especially when you take out Sanders. The very richest areas for Bloomberg, the also-rich-but-slightly-less-so areas for Biden, the rich-but-like-to-pretend-they-aren't-rich areas for Warren, and then the not-rich areas also Biden (Biden then strongest in the poorest areas).

[NOVA Green]

Not trying to ModJack, and totally get it that there are tons of folks that want to debate what ST means for various candidates and all that stuff and passions are still high and heated in all directions, but now that ST is over, may I respectfully request of my fellow Atlas posters that we can shift some of these discussions and debates that are not as relevant to the actual election results and analysis and even potentially some forecasting of the various coalitions that different campaigns built, can we please move some of these discussions elsewhere of which there are copious threads on 2020....

Not saying this as any kind of hater, but I suspect that there many posters and Forum Members (As well as the External audience that are subscribers but non-members courtesy of Dave L.) that might want to take a deeper dive into the data and not just arguments that might be a bit irrelevant to the actual ST election results....   

I will continue posting CA election results until they are all in, just as I did in '16 when CA was practically the last State on the calendar, and certainly the last to fully report...