Sifting through the
Alameda County numbers a bit more:
Let's take a look at how a fairly affluent community off the 680 voted:
Dublin, Californiahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin,_CaliforniaPop: 54.5k
Age: VAP tends to skew lowest in the 18-30 yr bracket, explodes in the 30-55 category, and tracks a bit lower in the 55+ than the Statewide average.
Race/Ethnicity: 41% Anglo, 37% Asian, 10% Latino, 6% Black, 5% Mixed
--- Latinos (65% of Mexican Ancestry, 10% Central American, 6% South American, 6% Puerto Rican.
--- Asians (38% Indian Ancestry, 28% Chinese, 13% Filipino, 6% Vietnamese, 5% Korean
MHI: $128.4k/Yr
Occupations: Mgmt (19%), Computers & Math (12%), Business (9%) all score higher than statewide numbers generally by significant margins...
Industries: Professional (19%), and Finance & Insurance (7.5%) all score significantly higher than Statewide, and Manufacturing is a bit higher as well with 11.2% of the work-force.
Educational Attainment: 65% with a post-secondary degree (!!!)
So several notes here: 14% of the population are non-citizens, the largest Black Census tract is the Alameda County Santa Rita Jail (57%), with a 4,000 inmate capacity. Dublin is also home to a 1,000 inmate Federal Prison. Interestingly enough it doesn't appear that many of residents of Dublin are actually employed directly by either institution.
At a Presidential level Dublin is an overwhelmingly Democratic City--- 2016 (HRC-68% vs DJT 24%)
2008 DEM PRIM:TOTAL: 5,799 DEM PRES PRIM BALLOTS
Obama- 2,468 Votes (42.6%)
HRC- 3,077 Votes (53.1%)
2016 DEM PRIM:TOTAL: 7,013 DEM PRES PRIM BALLOTS
Sanders- 3,052 Votes (43.5%)
HRC- 3,917 Votes (55.9%)
2020 DEM PRIM:TOTAL: 9,539 DEM PRES PRIM BALLOTS (136% of '16 DEM PRIM)
Sanders- 3,064 Votes (32.1%)
Biden- 2,980 Votes (31.2%)
Bloomberg- 1,286 Votes (13.5%)
Warren- 1,217 Votes (12.8%)
Others- 992 Votes (10.4%)
As one of the fast growing cities in California in terms of % of POP, much of the surge in 2020 DEM PRIM turnout appears to more organic, rather than "cross-over" voters.
Time to start crunching precincts:
Here is a precinct map of Dublin, California:
(21) Precincts in Dublin, CA...Sanders- +10% (3/21 precincts)
Sanders- +5-10% (1/21 precincts)
Sanders- +0-5% (5/21 precincts)
Biden- +0-5% (8/21 precincts)
Biden- +5-10% (1/21 precincts)
Biden- +10% (2/21 precincts)
Others- Santa Rita County Jail (No Votes)
Bloomberg--- Placed 3rd in 11/21 precincts (highest precinct 18.3% and lowest precinct 9.7%)
Warren--- Placed 3rd in 9/21 precincts (highest precinct 16.4% and lowest precinct 4.6%)
Let's look a bit at the respective strengths of the various candidates by precinct:
BIDEN: Precinct 540100: (Biden- 36%, Sanders- 24%, Bloomberg- 17%, Warren- 12%).
It appears to overlap closely with Census Block Group 450502-1 with almost 26% of the Total population 55+ years. The population skews overwhelmingly Anglo (69%). The MHI is $142k/yr.
Unfortunately we can't break down items such as occupation, employment status, etc.
Politically, from what I can garner, this precinct skews more Republican than the City as a whole (60-29-11) Clinton>Trump>3rd Party. It also appears that DEM voter turnout was 150% of 2016 numbers (57-43 Clinton-Sanders).
It appears that at least here, there may well have been a surge of older voters who moved against the Republican Party between '16>'20 OR simply that DEM PRIM TO was somehow able to even exceed the Clinton '16 GE numbers...
Precinct 546700: (Biden- 42%, Sanders- 31%, Bloomberg- 12%, Warren- 5%).
Overall this is a relatively small precinct with only around (150) votes cast in the '20 DEM PRIM.
Unfortunately the precinct numbers don't match 2016 data, so no easy means to compare and contrast....
It does appear to be a heavily Asian-American precinct, although it's more difficult to extrapolate other data since the Census Tract doesn't boil down for income, education, etc at a Block Map view....
It should be noted that Census Tract 450751 does include precinct 546700, as well as precinct 547900, and a part of 547800.... this broader census tract has a pop of 7.2k, and an MHI of $184.5k/Yr (wealthiest within Dublin).
It should also be noted that 27% of the population are non-citizens, with 34% of the population of Indian Ancestry, and 23% of Chinese Ancestry.
If we look at precinct 547900, we see (537) TVs (Sanders-35%, Biden 31%, Bloomberg 15%, Warren 10%), but yet 55% of the population is of Asian Ancestry....
I would definitely be cautious about extrapolating too much about Asian-American voting patterns in Dublin, considering that not only is the Asian VAP much lower than results might suggest, but additionally Sanders performed extremely well in heavily Chinese-American precincts in SF, which is likely a much larger chunk of the Asian vote share in these precincts.
Precinct 540400Biden's 3rd best precinct (33-24-18-10-14 Biden-Sanders-Bloomberg-Warren-Others)
Again we don't have a detailed breakdown bcs of Census privacy reasons, but it appears that roughly 50% of the population are in their 70s (!!!), and another 50% 80+.
What I suspect is this is some sort of Retirement Community / Assisted Living Neighborhood...
IDK... what's going on there...
Looks like you got a place like this floating around the precinct:
http://www.schaeferranchdublin.com/Sanders:Let's look at Sanders three strongest precincts:
So I'll do something slightly differently, but it appears that all three of these precincts have a much higher population density per square mile than most parts of Dublin.
Typically this will tend to cover places like apartment complexes and even Condos where "renters" are paying overpriced $$$ living in the Bay Area, without at least a down-payment on a home.
Naturally, this is only part of the story....
Overall, these three precincts appear to have a significantly lower Median Household Income (MHI) than in most other places in what is a relatively expensive place to live (especially if you are renting).
Although a $104k > $110k MHI might sound great, not everybody is scoring that kind of bread....
Sifting through the
Alameda County numbers a bit more:
Let's take a look at how a fairly affluent community off the 680 voted:
Dublin, Californiahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin,_CaliforniaPop: 54.5k
Age: VAP tends to skew lowest in the 18-30 yr bracket, explodes in the 30-55 category, and tracks a bit lower in the 55+ than the Statewide average.
Race/Ethnicity: 41% Anglo, 37% Asian, 10% Latino, 6% Black, 5% Mixed
--- Latinos (65% of Mexican Ancestry, 10% Central American, 6% South American, 6% Puerto Rican.
--- Asians (38% Indian Ancestry, 28% Chinese, 13% Filipino, 6% Vietnamese, 5% Korean
MHI: $128.4k/Yr
Occupations: Mgmt (19%), Computers & Math (12%), Business (9%) all score higher than statewide numbers generally by significant margins...
Industries: Professional (19%), and Finance & Insurance (7.5%) all score significantly higher than Statewide, and Manufacturing is a bit higher as well with 11.2% of the work-force.
Educational Attainment: 65% with a post-secondary degree (!!!)
So several notes here: 14% of the population are non-citizens, the largest Black Census tract is the Alameda County Santa Rita Jail (57%), with a 4,000 inmate capacity. Dublin is also home to a 1,000 inmate Federal Prison. Interestingly enough it doesn't appear that many of residents of Dublin are actually employed directly by either institution.
At a Presidential level Dublin is an overwhelmingly Democratic City--- 2016 (HRC-68% vs DJT 24%)
2008 DEM PRIM:TOTAL: 5,799 DEM PRES PRIM BALLOTS
Obama- 2,468 Votes (42.6%)
HRC- 3,077 Votes (53.1%)
2016 DEM PRIM:TOTAL: 7,013 DEM PRES PRIM BALLOTS
Sanders- 3,052 Votes (43.5%)
HRC- 3,917 Votes (55.9%)
2020 DEM PRIM:TOTAL: 9,539 DEM PRES PRIM BALLOTS (136% of '16 DEM PRIM)
Sanders- 3,064 Votes (32.1%)
Biden- 2,980 Votes (31.2%)
Bloomberg- 1,286 Votes (13.5%)
Warren- 1,217 Votes (12.8%)
Others- 992 Votes (10.4%)
As one of the fast growing cities in California in terms of % of POP, much of the surge in 2020 DEM PRIM turnout appears to more organic, rather than "cross-over" voters.
Time to start crunching precincts:
Here is a precinct map of Dublin, California:
(21) Precincts in Dublin, CA...Sanders- +10% (3/21 precincts)
Sanders- +5-10% (1/21 precincts)
Sanders- +0-5% (5/21 precincts)
Biden- +0-5% (8/21 precincts)
Biden- +5-10% (1/21 precincts)
Biden- +10% (2/21 precincts)
Others- Santa Rita County Jail (No Votes)
Bloomberg--- Placed 3rd in 11/21 precincts (highest precinct 18.3% and lowest precinct 9.7%)
Warren--- Placed 3rd in 9/21 precincts (highest precinct 16.4% and lowest precinct 4.6%)
Let's look a bit at the respective strengths of the various candidates by precinct:
BIDEN: Precinct 540100: (Biden- 36%, Sanders- 24%, Bloomberg- 17%, Warren- 12%).
It appears to overlap closely with Census Block Group 450502-1 with almost 26% of the Total population 55+ years. The population skews overwhelmingly Anglo (69%). The MHI is $142k/yr.
Unfortunately we can't break down items such as occupation, employment status, etc.
Politically, from what I can garner, this precinct skews more Republican than the City as a whole (60-29-11) Clinton>Trump>3rd Party. It also appears that DEM voter turnout was 150% of 2016 numbers (57-43 Clinton-Sanders).
It appears that at least here, there may well have been a surge of older voters who moved against the Republican Party between '16>'20 OR simply that DEM PRIM TO was somehow able to even exceed the Clinton '16 GE numbers...
Precinct 546700: (Biden- 42%, Sanders- 31%, Bloomberg- 12%, Warren- 5%).
Overall this is a relatively small precinct with only around (150) votes cast in the '20 DEM PRIM.
Unfortunately the precinct numbers don't match 2016 data, so no easy means to compare and contrast....
It does appear to be a heavily Asian-American precinct, although it's more difficult to extrapolate other data since the Census Tract doesn't boil down for income, education, etc at a Block Map view....
It should be noted that Census Tract 450751 does include precinct 546700, as well as precinct 547900, and a part of 547800.... this broader census tract has a pop of 7.2k, and an MHI of $184.5k/Yr (wealthiest within Dublin).
It should also be noted that 27% of the population are non-citizens, with 34% of the population of Indian Ancestry, and 23% of Chinese Ancestry.
If we look at precinct 547900, we see (537) TVs (Sanders-35%, Biden 31%, Bloomberg 15%, Warren 10%), but yet 55% of the population is of Asian Ancestry....
I would definitely be cautious about extrapolating too much about Asian-American voting patterns in Dublin, considering that not only is the Asian VAP much lower than results might suggest, but additionally Sanders performed extremely well in heavily Chinese-American precincts in SF, which is likely a much larger chunk of the Asian vote share in these precincts.
Precinct 540400Biden's 3rd best precinct (33-24-18-10-14 Biden-Sanders-Bloomberg-Warren-Others)
Again we don't have a detailed breakdown bcs of Census privacy reasons, but it appears that roughly 50% of the population are in their 70s (!!!), and another 50% 80+.
What I suspect is this is some sort of Retirement Community / Assisted Living Neighborhood...
IDK... what's going on there...
Looks like you got a place like this floating around the precinct:
http://www.schaeferranchdublin.com/Sanders:Let's look at Sanders three strongest precincts:
So I'll do something slightly differently, but it appears that all three of these precincts have a much higher population density per square mile than most parts of Dublin.
Typically this will tend to cover places like apartment complexes and even Condos where "renters" are paying overpriced $$$ living in the Bay Area, without at least a down-payment on a home, where even the cheapest apartments will run somewhere between $2.1k/Month > $2.5k/Month (Assuming you weren't grandfathered into a Rental Agreement).
https://www.apartments.com/dublin-ca/Now if we look at Race/Ethnicity in these precincts, there isn't really an overwhelming pattern here, except perhaps a higher % of Black & Latino voters in precincts 547920 & 546200.
There is a higher % of folks in their '20s in precinct 544000, as well as a younger subset than average floating around in the other two precincts....
*** Now it should also be noted that Warren tended to perform best in Sanders best precincts within Dublin, and Bloomberg tended to perform best in Biden's best precincts. ***
Food for thought while dealing with the COVID-19 blues....
