Super Tuesday Results Thread

[nicholas.slaydon]

There are so many factors that made the events of tonight possible. First, I think the DNC changing the rules to allow Bloomberg to participate in the last two debates helped Biden. If Bloomberg weren't in the Nevada Debate, that debate would've been the knockout punch for Biden's campaign as everyone crucified Bloomberg. Without him, all the attacks would've went to Biden. Second was the Clyburn endorsement. Third was Pete and Amy dropping out and campaigning for Biden (Biden wouldn't have won Minnesota without Amy's endorsement IMHO).

That all said, the fact that Bernie performed so poorly in Minnesota and Oklahoma (after winning both so strongly in 2016( really makes me question the extent of Bernie's appeal to working class whites. Tonight I'm starting to buy into the notion that Bernie did as well as he did in 2016 with that demographic because he was the sole anti Hillary vote in that primary and that they would've voted someone else if that someone was there. I'm gonna be watching Michigan and Missouri next week. If Bernie gets beat and beat bad in those states, then this will confirm that I and many others that said Bernie had strong appeal with working class  whites were wrong.

that's a lot of words for "Biden had no way to win the primary so Obama helped fix it for him, but we still should give him a ton of undue credit so that he's a paper tiger in the general."

[emailking]

Kornacki says Biden's best case scenario is netting 125 delegates over Sanders. His worst case is netting only 13 delegates over Sanders.

[Gass3268]

Biden is gonna win Maine.

[brucejoel99]

There are so many factors that made the events of tonight possible. First, I think the DNC changing the rules to allow Bloomberg to participate in the last two debates helped Biden. If Bloomberg weren't in the Nevada Debate, that debate would've been the knockout punch for Biden's campaign as everyone crucified Bloomberg. Without him, all the attacks would've went to Biden. Second was the Clyburn endorsement. Third was Pete and Amy dropping out and campaigning for Biden (Biden wouldn't have won Minnesota without Amy's endorsement IMHO).

That all said, the fact that Bernie performed so poorly in Minnesota and Oklahoma (after winning both so strongly in 2016( really makes me question the extent of Bernie's appeal to working class whites. Tonight I'm starting to buy into the notion that Bernie did as well as he did in 2016 with that demographic because he was the sole anti Hillary vote in that primary and that they would've voted someone else if that someone was there. I'm gonna be watching Michigan and Missouri next week. If Bernie gets beat and beat bad in those states, then this will confirm that I and many others that said Bernie had strong appeal with working class  whites were wrong.

that's a lot of words for "Biden had no way to win the primary so Obama helped fix it for him, but we still should give him a ton of undue credit so that he's a paper tiger in the general."

k

[Gass3268]

Our only hope is that Warren wakes the F**K up and gets her ass out of the race TOMORROW and campaigns her heart out to rally her supporters around Bernie, who can then do what he does best and kick the everloving sh**t out of Sundowning Joe in a 1v1 debate.

Warren supporter here who'll go to Biden.

[ProudModerate2]

Call me skeptical but I am not so sure CA is in the bag for Bernie

I kept doubting you about how Texas could be won by Biden (the last 2 hours or so).
Now, I will not doubt what you are saying about California.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/2020Delegates/status/1235072584124747776

Oh.. so he's still alive :/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Now, MSNBC is calling delegate math is impossible,  its over

[NOVA Green]

For the Berniebros.  A lot of you did miscalculate Bernie's strength tonight and underestimated Biden's.  Just hear me out for a second here... is it at all possible you are also perhaps miscalculating his strength of Bernie against Trump and underestimating Biden's strength against Trump?  

I realize last time Hillary won (didn't vote for her in the primary btw) and was an epic failure.  But maybe Biden and her are different people and each election is unique?  Biden is substantially outperforming her tonight in a bunch of states Bernie won against her last time.  Maybe it's possible that Biden is a stronger candidate than you thought and this isn't all just a big conspiracy against Bernie?

Never underestimated Biden despite my D-OR-SOC avatar...

Still consider myself as an "Obama DEM", as opposed to a reluctant DEM.

Both Bernie and Biden are electable in a GE against DJT, but fears of losing create fears of actual change...

I am tired of poseur politicians co-opting and stealing fundamental New Deal style DEM messages, and then claiming these are "there own policy positions"...

Move Left or Move backwards....

Tons of "Cowardly Cutlet's" IMHO when it comes to the DEM Party....

[Badger]

Hell, Hillary Clinton using a non completely brain-dead campaign strategy of ignoring Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin almost entirely in favor of places like Texas and New Orleans, could have been would have won Electoral College, having beaten Trump by millions of votes.

It only looks that way in hindsight. She was well ahead in all those states until the last week. (Which also suggests campaigning in them might not have done anything.)

If she campaigned in them, and not Texas, and still lost, but was within a few points in Texas, you'd probably criticize her for not campaigning there.

Um, no? If she won the election I wouldn't give a damn if she lost Texas, because I'm not an idiot.

No if she lost the election.

When someone runs a campaign like that and whines up losing by a fraction of a percentage point in three crucial states that till the election despite winning the popular vote by 3 million, one can genuinely place a lot of that defeat on Tactical stupidity.

Yeah maybe. But none of us knows what would have happened if she shifted resources to those states. Maybe she loses Colorado and Virginia instead. 538 had Trump pretty consistently with a ~30% chance to win in the last month, well above Romney & McCain. No matter how it happened, there'd be room for criticism.

One. Of course I wouldn't be pissed. He no conceivable Universe in 2016 does Clinton carry Texas while losing any role of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Quit making up ridiculous strawman to support your argument.

Secondly, again, quit strawmanning. She neglected to campaign in 3 states which, despite having not having gone Republican since the 80s, we're almost always close in presidential elections. Choosing the campaign in Texas for bragging rights and run ads in New Orleans to run up the popular vote majority because reasons, and a whole host of other similarly brain dead tactical decisions blue what was one of the closest elections in modern history. Absolutely can losing the Electoral College by 80,000 votes split over 3 large states be attributable to grade a campaign Mount practice.

Plus again. I submit most people who've had reservations about did so not because she didn't share Sanders plan for Medicare for all Universal free college education, etc etc, but because she was Hillary freaking. Can you seriously address the relative approval and disapproval ratings 4 Hillary versus Biden and claim they're basically the same candidate?

[Gass3268]

Collin County, TX flipped to Biden.

Also looks like Cameron County, TX flipped correctly to Sanders.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie failed to convince voters that he can expand the map, he did worst in MN, beyond Wiz

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I was ready compromise and get behind Biden, but seeing all this "haha suck it Bernie Bros you're all losers" is convincing me more and more that there is no room for progressives in the Democratic Party.

There literally hasn’t been that much of that at all? And anyone who IS doing that is an idiot. I’m a Biden supporter who supported Bernie in 2016. I was crushed when he lost. I enthusiastically supported Hillary and my views have changed a bit, but I would never make fun of someone who’s candidate isn’t doing well. People poured their hearts into Bernie and I know how that feels. It sucks

Next time they hold a Sanders rally in your district, DON'T go to it.

The Bern is dead. Bury it. (Consider this mercy.)

Illini Moderate, we got another one

[Harvey Updyke Jr🌹]

For those of you who don't think Biden represents where the Democratic Party is right now, and he's from a different time, etc.  Think of it this way.  Trump is a huge problem.  We need to get rid of him immediately.  Biden is a temporary solution.  There is a lot of time for a next generation to take the reigns but right now we need Trump gone before he does more damage.

Yea... we tried that last time.  It didn't work out too well.

We're doing it our way this time.

[Illini Moderate]

I was ready compromise and get behind Biden, but seeing all this "haha suck it Bernie Bros you're all losers" is convincing me more and more that there is no room for progressives in the Democratic Party.

There literally hasn’t been that much of that at all? And anyone who IS doing that is an idiot. I’m a Biden supporter who supported Bernie in 2016. I was crushed when he lost. I enthusiastically supported Hillary and my views have changed a bit, but I would never make fun of someone who’s candidate isn’t doing well. People poured their hearts into Bernie and I know how that feels. It sucks

Next time they hold a Sanders rally in your district, DON'T go to it.

The Bern is dead. Bury it. (Consider this mercy.)

Illini Moderate, we got another one

They have a blue avi and I’ve called out several ppl on this forum already. Plus I don’t see how that one is bad. It’s just overconfidence, not rubbing it in or tearing anyone down personally

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sorry, but TX is voting red without Joaquin Castro running for Senate. Hegar is a lightweight like Buttigieg

[GoTfan]

I was ready compromise and get behind Biden, but seeing all this "haha suck it Bernie Bros you're all losers" is convincing me more and more that there is no room for progressives in the Democratic Party.

There literally hasn’t been that much of that at all? And anyone who IS doing that is an idiot. I’m a Biden supporter who supported Bernie in 2016. I was crushed when he lost. I enthusiastically supported Hillary and my views have changed a bit, but I would never make fun of someone who’s candidate isn’t doing well. People poured their hearts into Bernie and I know how that feels. It sucks

Next time they hold a Sanders rally in your district, DON'T go to it.

The Bern is dead. Bury it. (Consider this mercy.)

Illini Moderate, we got another one

They have a blue avi and I’ve called out several ppl on this forum already. Plus I don’t see how that one is bad. It’s just overconfidence, not rubbing it in or tearing anyone down personally

You're not ready many comments are you?

[emailking]

One. Of course I wouldn't be pissed. He no conceivable Universe in 2016 does Clinton carry Texas while losing any role of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Quit making up ridiculous strawman to support your argument.

It's not a strawman dude. Winning Texas was conceivable even if you assert it's not. She only lost by 9 points while winning nationally by 2. Polls had her +10 nationally at one point. Very unlikely is not inconceivable. Also many thought it was inconceivable that she could lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

The 30% chance of Trump winning included all kinds of insane maps. One of them was the map that actually happened!

Secondly, again, quit strawmanning.

I'm not trying to be disingenuous with you man. I'm just so sick of this point that she blew the election when we just don't know that. I've made these points before on this forum.

Can you seriously address the relative approval and disapproval ratings 4 Hillary versus Biden and claim they're basically the same candidate?

I'm not trying to speak to that issue at all.

[Calthrina950]

Biden's margin is getting pretty large in Texas.  I don't see how Bernie spins this.  He lost MA, MN, might lose ME, is losing TX.  Lost the South by a wide margin.  I suppose if Warren stays in it they could deny Biden enough delegates, but I'm not seeing a path for Bernie to actually have the most delegates.

I'm amazed by the power of Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota. She delivered her home state to Biden on a silver platter, which should put to rest any doubts that she would have lost it had she not dropped out. And it appears that Klobuchar and Buttigieg gave Biden the support that he needed to beat both Sanders and Warren in Massachusetts.

Are we convinced it was Klobuchar?  Biden seems to be overperforming everywhere.  Maine, though an older population, is surprising to me.

I'm pretty certain that Klobuchar was the decisive factor in Minnesota, as Biden was in third place, I believe, in polls there, before she dropped out. I recall seeing an ABC News exit poll earlier this evening that said a near-majority (48%) of voters who approved of Klobuchar voted for Biden on Election Day, and that she was a decisive factor in their vote.

Sorry, but TX is voting red without Joaquin Castro running for Senate. Hegar is a lightweight like Buttigieg

The irony is that you are correct, at least in part about this. Hegar is not the strongest recruit that Democrats could have obtained in Texas, and I think she will lose to Cornyn in November, though she will probably be able to keep the race within single digits.

[Badger]

Call me skeptical but I am not so sure CA is in the bag for Bernie

I kept doubting you about how Texas could be won by Biden (the last 2 hours or so).
Now, I will not doubt what you are saying about California.

Nah, Bernie will take CA.

However, it'll be a much more anemic win than anyone would've guessed only days ago, and more importantly, a much weaker win than Bernie needs at this point to stay truly competitive.

[Calthrina950]

Biden's margin is getting pretty large in Texas.  I don't see how Bernie spins this.  He lost MA, MN, might lose ME, is losing TX.  Lost the South by a wide margin.  I suppose if Warren stays in it they could deny Biden enough delegates, but I'm not seeing a path for Bernie to actually have the most delegates.

I'm amazed by the power of Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota. She delivered her home state to Biden on a silver platter, which should put to rest any doubts that she would have lost it had she not dropped out. And it appears that Klobuchar and Buttigieg gave Biden the support that he needed to beat both Sanders and Warren in Massachusetts.

I wonder if she’s the front runner for VP now. Harris didn’t back Biden when he needed it and Klobuchar did

Possibly, though I think Biden would be better served by choosing someone like Cory Booker instead, so as to better energize minority turnout. Klobuchar however, would definitely help him with women voters and with moderate suburbanites, and she could also help him peel off some of those Midwestern Obama-Trump voters and independents as well. At any rate, I think she and Buttigieg will be rewarded by Biden if he wins the nomination and the election. Those two are responsible for much of his success tonight.

[brucejoel99]

For those of you who don't think Biden represents where the Democratic Party is right now, and he's from a different time, etc.  Think of it this way.  Trump is a huge problem.  We need to get rid of him immediately.  Biden is a temporary solution.  There is a lot of time for a next generation to take the reigns but right now we need Trump gone before he does more damage.

Yea... we tried that last time.  It didn't work out too well.

We're doing it our way this time.

So you're giving us 4 more years of Trump. Got it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Umm the NYT says Marianne Williamson won Fillmore County, Minnesota with 558 votes... Delaney comes fourth with 101 votes.

[Badger]

Can you seriously address the relative approval and disapproval ratings 4 Hillary versus Biden and claim they're basically the same candidate?

I'm not trying to speak to that issue at all.

Well, if you're trying to argue that nominating Biden repeats the mistake of nominating Clinton, you really should.

[Gass3268]

Tarrant County, TX dropped their election day vote, flipped to Biden.