Should non-essential gatherings be shut down to slow down COVID-19?

[Florida Man for Crime]

Yes. The time is now to shut down/cancel non-essential gatherings. Without interventions, we are in an exponential growth process. It is the nature of exponential growth processes that intervention that is done earlier is more likely to have an effect. There has been too much dithering and faffing about already, the time for bold action is now.

These could/should include things like school closures and mass introduction of work at home policies in businesses. In the context of politics, this would also mean things like canceling political rallies and quickly figuring out ways to hold upcoming elections while minimizing/avoiding disease spread. The difficulty is that these sorts of things would have an economic cost, which is a cost the government seems unwilling to countenance. But at minimum, these sorts of steps should start being taken in areas where there is strong reason to believe there is significant community spread, such as the SF Bay area and the Seattle area. The reality, though, is that it is also almost certainly in other places as well, and the longer we wait to do something about it, the more it will grow in those other places also.

Unfortunately, there are not many signs that any significant countermeasures are happening in the USA. Containment/significant mitigation is not going to happen without significant changes in mass behavior. But the government appears to be asleep at the wheel, rather than doing anything to really bring that about.

[T'Chenka]

Maybe we should all put the crack pipes down and wait for the experts to call for a cancellation of non-essential gatherings before we start doing the same.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Final Four of the NCAA (college) basketball tournament is scheduled for here in Atlanta the first weekend of April.  There's some talk going around that they may play it with no audiences -- in 70,000-seat Mercedes-Benz Stadium.  I almost bought tickets for this when they went on sale several months ago, but they were a little too pricey.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Only until Donald Trump can figure out what the hell is going on.

[GP270watch]

 Switzerland just shut down large events including their annual watch fair which is a big deal for the nation. Baselworld 2020 is canceled.

[dead0man]

aren't most (all?) gatherings non-essential?

[Del Tachi]

No (sane response)

[RI]

That would be an insane overreaction.

[Omega21]

In Europe the Geneva motor show has been cancelled, a sad day for all of us car guys.

[Green Line]

It better not interfere with opening day in late March.  I will be pissed off.

[RINO Tom]

In the US?  Absolutely not yet.  In the EU?  Up to the countries, I suppose.  That is a fundamentally different situation with how easily and often citizens cross borders.

[parochial boy]

Switzerland just shut down large events including their annual watch fair which is a big deal for the nation. Baselworld 2020 is canceled.

Is... it?

Basel Fasnacht being cancelled was a huge deal, but I'd never even heard of the watch thing.

And that said, part of the difference is that we are practically on the front line, given the open borders with and proximity to the worst hit part of Italy.

[Florida Man for Crime]

No (sane response)

That would be an insane overreaction.

If you delay containment by 1 week, you end up with ~10x more cases according to mathematical models.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2002.12298.pdf

Exponential growth processes are... well, exponential...

So I hope that you don't change your opinion in a week or 2 or 3.

[Fight for Trump]

Switzerland just shut down large events including their annual watch fair which is a big deal for the nation. Baselworld 2020 is canceled.

Is... it?

Basel Fasnacht being cancelled was a huge deal, but I'd never even heard of the watch thing.

And that said, part of the difference is that we are practically on the front line, given the open borders with and proximity to the worst hit part of Italy.

It is a big deal for me, as I sometimes attend Basel and SIHH, but for the general public it isn't, really. It's mostly industry people and journalists, along with a few locals who pop in on the last day to browse.

But yeah, I am cutting my own travel down a lot, mostly to set an example for others.

[Florida Man for Crime]

St. Louis saw the deadly 1918 Spanish flu epidemic coming. Shutting down the city saved countless lives

In early October, city health commissioner Dr. Max C. Starkloff ordered the closure of schools, movie theaters, saloons, sporting events and other public gathering spots. Churches were told to suspend Sunday services. At the time, with nearly 800,000 residents, St. Louis was among the top 10 largest American cities.

...

Thanks to the quarantine, St. Louis’ death rate in 1918 was lowest among major U.S. cities. In Philadelphia, where bodies piled up on sidewalks when the morgues overflowed, the death rate was nearly twice as high.

Whereas Philadelphia decided not to cancel a big parade... and paid for that decision in body bags.

[parochial boy]

Switzerland just shut down large events including their annual watch fair which is a big deal for the nation. Baselworld 2020 is canceled.

Is... it?

Basel Fasnacht being cancelled was a huge deal, but I'd never even heard of the watch thing.

And that said, part of the difference is that we are practically on the front line, given the open borders with and proximity to the worst hit part of Italy.

It is a big deal for me, as I sometimes attend Basel and SIHH, but for the general public it isn't, really. It's mostly industry people and journalists, along with a few locals who pop in on the last day to browse.

But yeah, I am cutting my own travel down a lot, mostly to set an example for others.

I’d never even heard of SIHH either, and I only lived there for 25 years. The irony that the rest of the country considers Geneva to be « ghetto »...

I’m seriously doubting whether to go skiing this weekend. Things look like they’ll be getting really sucky here fast unless the situation in Italy improves.

[The Simpsons Cinematic Universe]

As someone who's currently living under a city wide lockdown because of COVID-19 I'm genuinely surprised at how many "No" answers I'm seeing. It was a pretty "insane overreaction" in most places in this country, but because of it, it's pretty safe outside of Hubei, and most patients in my province were already cured. It'd be a shame if this wrecked havoc in the US.

I feel that a big factor in why the US can't contain this virus easily is that I don't really see landlords giving people a break on rent for being off of work, or that kind of thing. Nevermind the fact that many people would not want to see a doctor over the price of it. You'd end up with a lot of people in desperate situations.

[GP270watch]

 BaselWorld is a big deal for the Swiss Watch and Jewelry Industry which is important to the country as matter of pride, tradition, and commerce. While BaselWorld has been de-emphasized in the last few years it still is an important event.

 The Swiss watch industry has grown tremendously with the global economy of the last decade but it is now facing headwinds with the unrest in Hong Kong, Coronavirus, and wearable tech like The Apple Watch which is killing the low-end of mechanical watches.

 

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Let's cancel the primaries too.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Let's cancel the primaries too.

Trump deserves a third therm!

[Florida Man for Crime]

Let's cancel the primaries too.

They can't really be canceled, but we need a massive crash program to quickly ramp up vote by mail and to find other ways to minimize the potential of polling places to become disease spreading vectors. For example, touch screen voting machines are a major problem for obvious reasons.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Possible changes to how Congress operates may be coming sooner or later:

https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1234543515964780548

https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1234543607098597378

[GP270watch]

Let's cancel the primaries too.

They can't really be canceled, but we need a massive crash program to quickly ramp up vote by mail and to find other ways to minimize the potential of polling places to become disease spreading vectors. For example, touch screen voting machines are a major problem for obvious reasons.

If coronavirus forced vote by mail politicians would freak out. VBM has been proven to increase turnout and politicians love to run races with a predictable electorate.

[President Johnson]

Let's cancel the primaries too.

Yes, and the election. Just give it to Biden

[McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero]

Definitely.