Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There's always the chance of a shocker result blowing up Trump's electoral map. Texas flipping blue, for example, will render Pennsylvania and Florida entirely irrelevant (not to mention Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio). Clinton states + Texas = 270. Don't laugh off Texas flipping -- it is no more impossible than a bigoted grifter winning in the 'nice' Upper Midwest.

It would be hilarious if Biden won Texas and lost Pennsylvania

LOL

[pbrower2a]

CNN in two swing states.

Trump approval
NC: 46/51
WI: 43/55

Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

How does Trump win with such horrible numbers on approval?

Delaware, DEE CEE, Illinois, Oregon, and Rhode Island are not shown, but at this point Trump has disapproval numbers (figuring that Delaware, DC, Illinois, Oregon, and Rhode Island) give Trump disapproval numbers of 55% or higher, then Biden has a very strong grasp on 272 electoral votes. This is more electoral failure by Trump than winning by Biden,  but that will not matter in November. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Aug. 31-Sep. 13, 1019 adults (1-month change)

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Sep. 13-15, 1500 adults including 1192 RV and 1062 LV

Adults:

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-3)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)


RV:

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

Biden 50 (+1), Trump 41 (-1)

GCB: D 47 (+1), R 40 (+1)


LV:

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 47 (-1)

Biden 51 (+2), Trump 42 (nc)

GCB: D 47 (+1), R 40 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Sep. 11-15, 1358 adults including 1133 RV and 859 LV

Adults:

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

Biden 43 (-2), Trump 37 (nc)


RV:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 56 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-1)

Biden 47 (-1), Trump 39 (-1)


LV (no prior for approvals):

Approve 43
Disapprove 56

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 46

Biden 50 (-2), Trump 41 (+1)

[Brittain33]

LV:

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 47 (-1)

Biden 51 (+2), Trump 42 (nc)

GCB: D 47 (+1), R 40 (+1)

Ok, so Trump's approval is up significantly, his strong approve is down significantly, and Biden pulls ahead further? Huh?

[GeorgiaModerate]

LV:

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 47 (-1)

Biden 51 (+2), Trump 42 (nc)

GCB: D 47 (+1), R 40 (+1)

Ok, so Trump's approval is up significantly, his strong approve is down significantly, and Biden pulls ahead further? Huh?

Don't ask me; I just report 'em.

[Beet]

Trump's approval rating is skyrocketing. He's now more popular than he was before the pandemic. The virus has been a political gift to him.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Rasmussen has the very first time this election cycle of all the polls to have Trump +1 leading Biden 47%-46%.

Joe has been gradually declining in the polls the last month. It’s on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

pbower put the same map up all the time showing disapprovals in TX, ARK, AK and MT, and OH and IA,  Dems aren't gonna win a blowout election and he still puts up the same map, eventhough polls show otherwise. The 413 election is ovier, Trump has pulled out in OH and IA and Ernst is likely to get elected

That's why we respond to this thread, because the disapproval map isn't reality, he needs to come up with more than a Biden slide map that show Trump's true approval numbers, he does this every election cycle

[pbrower2a]

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL

When asked how President Trump is handling his job as president, likely voters had varying opinions across the three states.
In Kentucky: 55 percent approve, 41 percent disapprove.
In South Carolina: 50 percent approve, 47 percent disapprove.
In Maine: 38 percent approve, 60 percent disapprove.
TRUMP CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE

When asked how President Trump is handling the response to the coronavirus, likely voters gave similar responses to his overall job approval.
In Kentucky: 54 percent approve, 43 percent disapprove.
In South Carolina: 49 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove.
In Maine: 37 percent approve, 61 percent disapprove.

(Quinnipiac)

Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

How does Trump win with such horrible numbers on approval?

Delaware, DEE CEE, Illinois, Oregon, and Rhode Island are not shown, but at this point Trump has disapproval numbers (figuring that Delaware, DC, Illinois, Oregon, and Rhode Island) give Trump disapproval numbers of 55% or higher, then Biden has a very strong grasp on 272 electoral votes. This is more electoral failure by Trump than winning by Biden,  but that will not matter in November. 

[/quote]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are forgoing OH and IA for Prez and MT Senate. Trump pulled his ads in IA and OH and Dems are targeting AK, AZ, CO, GA, ME, NC and SC.

OH  was gonna lose its Bellwether status in a close election. Ernst is likely to win, making AZ new tipping pt
 

OH and  IA and TX are likely Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Definitely Ds are triaging IA, OH and TX. Trump has pulled out in in all 3 states. Dems had 0 chance to win the Senate with TX Hegar but with Joaquin Castro and in a 278 election OH, IA and TX are safe R anyways. Cooney and Gross have a better chance than Bullock due to scandal and Bollier is gonna win an open seat than Greenfield beat Ernst who have 50 percent approvals due to Gov Reynolds

A 413 election isnt in the cards but a 269 to 350 election is

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Rassy is on to something by now.

Trump approval: 53-46, Trump +7

LOL!

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Sep. 11-14, 1108 adults (1-month change)

Approve 43 (+8)
Disapprove 56 (-9)

Strongly approve 25 (+7)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

When I see an eye-popping change like that, it's time to take a deeper look.  Let's check the party ID breakdown in this poll:

D 43
R 43
I 15

That's too Republican, since more people in the country identify as D than R.  What was it last month?

D 48
R 35
I 16

OTOH, that one is too Democratic; the D-R gap isn't that wide. 

So they went from a too-D to a too-R sample.  It's not surprising that there was a huge change in approval.

Another way to frame it: they went from D+13 to D+0 samples, which is an R+13 change, and saw an R+17 change in approval.  The other four points are likely to be real movement (Trump's approval has ticked up in other polls recently), or it could be normal variation, or some of both.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 11-16, 1152 adults including 964 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 29 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)


RV:

Approve 42
Disapprove 53

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 45

Biden 52 (-1), Trump 42 (nc)
Biden 49, Trump 41, Jorgensen 5, Hawkins 2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[IGNORE Every poll comes out has Biden plus 7 to 9

Trump approval: 53-46, Trump +7

LOL!
[/quote]

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Rassy is on to something by now.

Trump approval: 53-46, Trump +7

LOL!

Fixed

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

[IGNORE Every poll comes out has Biden plus 7 to 9

Trump approval: 53-46, Trump +7

LOL!

[/quote]

Yes, I of course discount the 53%, but it’s the trend. And Rassy was the most accurate poll of 2016 as well. In almost every single poll, Tump has improved significantly.

No chance in hell Trump wins the popular vote - but signs are pointing to a close election - as I’ve been consistently stating.

[solidcoalition]

Trump’s definitely rising.

[Brittain33]

Trump's approval rating is skyrocketing. He's now more popular than he was before the pandemic. The virus has been a political gift to him.

What do you think his approval rating will be on Election Day, Beet? Mid-50s, closer to 60?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL

When asked how President Trump is handling his job as president, likely voters had varying opinions across the three states.
In Kentucky: 55 percent approve, 41 percent disapprove.
In South Carolina: 50 percent approve, 47 percent disapprove.
In Maine: 38 percent approve, 60 percent disapprove.
TRUMP CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE

When asked how President Trump is handling the response to the coronavirus, likely voters gave similar responses to his overall job approval.
In Kentucky: 54 percent approve, 43 percent disapprove.
In South Carolina: 49 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove.
In Maine: 37 percent approve, 61 percent disapprove.

(Quinnipiac)

Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

How does Trump win with such horrible numbers on approval?

Delaware, DEE CEE, Illinois, Oregon, and Rhode Island are not shown, but at this point Trump has disapproval numbers (figuring that Delaware, DC, Illinois, Oregon, and Rhode Island) give Trump disapproval numbers of 55% or higher, then Biden has a very strong grasp on 272 electoral votes. This is more electoral failure by Trump than winning by Biden,  but that will not matter in November.  

[/quote]

The approval ratings in OH, IA, TX are at 50 percent and above, Ds already stated  triage OH, IA and TX and they are concentrating on AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NM, NC, SC  VA and WI where approval ratings are at 45 percent . Ds arent gonna win a 450 map which never happened

[Progressive Pessimist]

LV:

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 47 (-1)

Biden 51 (+2), Trump 42 (nc)

GCB: D 47 (+1), R 40 (+1)

Ok, so Trump's approval is up significantly, his strong approve is down significantly, and Biden pulls ahead further? Huh?

Perhaps this suggests that Biden's support is more affirmative than it is anti-Trump.

[pbrower2a]

Approval and disapproval ratings got us to the match-up numbers. Elections are match-up events, and not simply referenda on approval and disapproval. I expect approval and disapproval numbers to largely disappear from polling as more concern becomes "who votes".

Very soon, polls will have four categories:

HV (have voted)
LV  (likely voters)
RV  (registered voters)
A (adults)

Adults who have not yet registered to vote may be running out of time in which to register to vote. 

Some votes are already in. Mine, for example, I can't see anything that Donald Trump could do that would convince me that he will cause me to question my vote. (Yes, I am a Party hawk... but this time it is easy to vote for a devout Christian with a conservative lifestyle who supports American troops and promotes rational thought as a necessary feature of any good solution for anything. In many years that was a Republican. Not this year.

HV (Have Voted) is the most solid part of the vote. This will include some "likely voters"... and people who might have seemed "not-so-likely voters". For me the voting part of 2020 is over. I will be involved in other activity.

If you want to see some episodic indicator that things are going badly for Trump, I took a trip to Democratic headquarters in my county and someone came in for some Biden yard signs, That person had said that he had never voted Democratic in his life and was voting Democratic this time. That is one person... 

The voting has begun, and some signs look bad for Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook has the PVI for FL, NC and and its R favored, but AZ, MN, MI, PA  and VA are pointing to a Dem trend.

Dems aren't winning a 413 map, thats why correctly has it 291-247, in conjunction with a 47 percent Rassy approval ratiing. Biden if he thought he was favored in IA and OH would have made a campaign stop in OH and IA, only Trump advertised in OH and IA, and he has pulled out in both those states and Biden has pulled out in TX

Cook does the PVI totals for every states thats why he is right on the mark with his map of AZ, MI, PA and Wi the only states flipping.

Don't be fooled by the Senate races GA, NC and SC can split their votes for Prez, and for Senate. That's why Trafalgar had Trump winning NC and Tillis losing