Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1269980040495861760

Must be good for Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wake me up when the Gallup poll comes out. Three of their last four polls had Trump at a record high approval of around 49%. And even if these other polls are right, he would only be reverting to a 2019 mean. If this week is a trough for him, it'll still be higher than the Ukraine scandal trough as recently as October 2019.

I'm surprised we haven't seen Gallup's poll for the second half of May yet.  Normally I'd expect it to be released close to June 1.

Trump's current approval average on 538 is in the same general area as the Ukraine scandal trough.  It was in the -12 to -14 average then, with a low of -14.0.  Currently it's at -13.2.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Wake me up when the Gallup poll comes out. Three of their last four polls had Trump at a record high approval of around 49%. And even if these other polls are right, he would only be reverting to a 2019 mean. If this week is a trough for him, it'll still be higher than the Ukraine scandal trough as recently as October 2019.

I'm surprised we haven't seen Gallup's poll for the second half of May yet.  Normally I'd expect it to be released close to June 1.

Trump's current approval average on 538 is in the same general area as the Ukraine scandal trough.  It was in the -12 to -14 average then, with a low of -14.0.  Currently it's at -13.2.

Okay, GM.  Explain once again (and I can't be the only person who is confused about this): how and why does Morning Consult release widely differing polls on a semi-daily basis with different samples?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wake me up when the Gallup poll comes out. Three of their last four polls had Trump at a record high approval of around 49%. And even if these other polls are right, he would only be reverting to a 2019 mean. If this week is a trough for him, it'll still be higher than the Ukraine scandal trough as recently as October 2019.

I'm surprised we haven't seen Gallup's poll for the second half of May yet.  Normally I'd expect it to be released close to June 1.

Trump's current approval average on 538 is in the same general area as the Ukraine scandal trough.  It was in the -12 to -14 average then, with a low of -14.0.  Currently it's at -13.2.

Okay, GM.  Explain once again (and I can't be the only person who is confused about this): how and why does Morning Consult release widely differing polls on a semi-daily basis with different samples?

Well, in the past we've discussed YouGov, which conducts polls for different clients (The Economist, CBS, Yahoo, etc.) as well as their own daily snapshots, which all may have different sampling and weights.  That's why it's generally not a good idea to compare a YouGov/Economist poll with a YouGov/CBS one.

Morning Consult I know less about.  Mostly they're all-adult samples, except for the RV poll they do for Politico (which used to be weekly, but seems to have become much more irregular).  If you look at MC's last five all-adult polls, they don't seem inconsistent when considering margin of error and that Trump's support does appear to be on a general decline at the moment.

May 29-June 1 40/55
May 31-June 1 39/56
June 2-5 36/59
June 3-5 41/54
June 5-7 37/59

[GeorgiaModerate]

Øptimus Coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), May 30-June 6, 891 adults including 787 LV

Adults:

Approve 35 (-2)
Disapprove 65 (+2)

Strongly approve 18 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

Biden 42 (-1), Trump 33 (-2)


LV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

Biden 53 (+2), Trump 42 (-2)


The 35/65 approval among adults is the worst I've seen for Trump in a very long time.

[Dr. Arch]

Øptimus Coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), May 30-June 6, 891 adults including 787 LV

Adults:

Approve 35 (-2)
Disapprove 65 (+2)

Strongly approve 18 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

Biden 42 (-1), Trump 33 (-2)


LV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

Biden 53 (+2), Trump 42 (-2)


The 35/65 approval among adults is the worst I've seen for Trump in a very long time.

Has it ever even been that high?

[emailking]

Wow another poll with Biden +11.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Øptimus Coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), May 30-June 6, 891 adults including 787 LV

Adults:

Approve 35 (-2)
Disapprove 65 (+2)

Strongly approve 18 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

Biden 42 (-1), Trump 33 (-2)


LV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

Biden 53 (+2), Trump 42 (-2)


The 35/65 approval among adults is the worst I've seen for Trump in a very long time.

Has it ever even been that high?

Yes, but rarely.  Not counting dubious online polls, the worst I've seen is 32/67 from AP/NORC (consistently one of Trump's worst pollsters) a couple of times in late 2017.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Øptimus Coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), May 30-June 6, 891 adults including 787 LV

Adults:

Approve 35 (-2)
Disapprove 65 (+2)

Strongly approve 18 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

Biden 42 (-1), Trump 33 (-2)


LV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

Biden 53 (+2), Trump 42 (-2)


The 35/65 approval among adults is the worst I've seen for Trump in a very long time.

How can the LV sample be -12 and the Adult sample be -30 when the samples are almost 90% overlapping?

44% of 787 LV sample is 346 people.  Even if every additional respondent in the adult sample disapproved of Trump, his approval in the adult sample would be 39%.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1269980040495861760

lol Polls aren’t predictive.

They look at past. Wake me up when next months numbers are trending higher with the reopening and Econ numbers

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1269980040495861760

lol Polls aren’t predictive.

They look at past. Wake me up when next months numbers are trending higher with the reopening and Econ numbers

In this case, polling below 45% approval in June correlates 100% with losing reelection in November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Øptimus Coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), May 30-June 6, 891 adults including 787 LV

Adults:

Approve 35 (-2)
Disapprove 65 (+2)

Strongly approve 18 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

Biden 42 (-1), Trump 33 (-2)


LV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

Biden 53 (+2), Trump 42 (-2)


The 35/65 approval among adults is the worst I've seen for Trump in a very long time.

How can the LV sample be -12 and the Adult sample be -30 when the samples are almost 90% overlapping?

44% of 787 LV sample is 346 people.  Even if every additional respondent in the adult sample disapproved of Trump, his approval in the adult sample would be 39%.

Very good question.  I don't know the answer.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1269980040495861760

lol Polls aren’t predictive.

They look at past. Wake me up when next months numbers are trending higher with the reopening and Econ numbers

In this case, polling below 45% approval in June correlates 100% with losing reelection in November.

Correct word. But who gives a damn the correlation?

Shame they relationship you were looking for that doesn’t exist is casual.

[emailking]

Pretty sure it might not be too hard to surmise a cause for his abysmal approval numbers that may also be a cause for his potential landslide defeat in the Fall.

[pbrower2a]

Donald Trump increasingly looks like the Boss from Hell -- the imperious superior who seems to wreck the institution that he commands. He makes managerial mistakes that an assistant manager at a fast-food restaurant wouldn't dream of doing.

But even worse, he does things that suggest a despot. He has assembled enforcers with police powers, responsible to no courts of law or legislative oversight,  but to whose authority is nebulous (if not overtly to the Great and Infallible Leader himself) Such is practically the definition of a secret police.

At this point I can think of one perfect nominee for Attorney General in January 2021. Keen legal mind, figures things out fast, doesn't show his hand, adheres strictly to legal precedent, and has a "do the crime and do the time" attitude.  The nightmare for a gangster, terrorist, corrupt public official, or large-scale swindler, don't you think?   

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Morning Consult out with a new low.

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1270225625438183424?s=21

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1269980040495861760

lol Polls aren’t predictive.

They look at past. Wake me up when next months numbers are trending higher with the reopening and Econ numbers

Here are the job approval ratings of Prez Obama during the 2010 R takeover of Congress
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

46 approve and 47 percent disapprove in June of 2010, the same approvals Trump have 45 approve and 53 disapprove.  You say what that polls arent predictive of elections. Yes they are.

Unemployment in 2010 was 10.1 and now its 15 percent

Trump is in a worse position than Obama was in, when Rs tookover Congress


We aren't in a 3.5 percent unemployment economy like SN, 538 and AZ iced Tea and Badger believes that we still are in. Also French Republican who is now idle, said we were in

[Sir Mohamed]

Morning Consult out with a new low.

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1270225625438183424?s=21

We're back to 2nd half 2017 levels, where Mr. Trump had one of his worst showings throughout his tenure.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs were blaming the same economy at 10.1 percent on Obama, now Trump is immune from a 15 percent economy since he is an R. Doesnt fly with Dems, only SN, French Republican,  Badger and 538 believe that

[Brittain33]

I’m going to miss these poll numbers when the protests eventually calm down and we’re left with just COVID and 13% unemployment.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1269980040495861760

lol Polls aren’t predictive.

They look at past. Wake me up when next months numbers are trending higher with the reopening and Econ numbers

1. Trump is in a range of Presidents who did not get re-elected, and only among them. (OK, Truman is not mentioned, but such reflects the roller-coaster of the Korean War).

2. The reopening is in stages, and as a rule decisions of State governments. Not Trump. Such is based on the reduction in new cases of COVID-19.

3. Trump handled COVID-19 less competnetly than:

  a. State and loval governments
  b. most Americans
  c. the medical profession, medical researchers,  and public health
  d. news media capable of saying NO to Trump
  e. Big Business
  f.  all of the above 
(the answer is of course "all of the above".

4. Do you think that ne handled the mass rallies against police brutality well?
 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama polls at 46 to 47 approvals are very similar to Trump  approvals at 45 approvals v 53 disapproval back during the 2010 R wave of Congress. I have tapes of Rs and John Kasich in OH, in an Obama economy which unemployment was nowhere near this Pandemic recession, that jobs werent coming back. The hypocrisy of Rs at 2010 10.1 percent in an Obama economy v a 15 percent during a Pandemic

Real clear has the polls the same in June 2010 Obama approvals v 2020 June Trump approvals and R took 60 seats in the House, which bodes well for a Supermajority Senate

[Person Man]

Obama polls at 46 to 47 approvals are very similar to Trump  approvals at 45 approvals v 53 disapproval back during the 2010 R wave of Congress. I have tapes of Rs and John Kasich in OH, in an Obama economy which unemployment was nowhere near this Pandemic recession, that jobs werent coming back. The hypocrisy of Rs at 2010 10.1 percent in an Obama economy v a 15 percent during a Pandemic

Real clear has the polls the same in June 2010 Obama approvals v 2020 June Trump approvals and R took 60 seats in the House, which bodes well for a Supermajority Senate

Actually, if every second-tier Republican seat is lost, it could happen. More likely, I see a scenario when Republican lose all the swing states and maybe one or two of the second tier seats (Iowa and one in the deep south).

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1269980040495861760

lol Polls aren’t predictive.

They look at past. Wake me up when next months numbers are trending higher with the reopening and Econ numbers

In this case, polling below 45% approval in June correlates 100% with losing reelection in November.

Correct word. But who gives a damn the correlation?

Shame they relationship you were looking for that doesn’t exist is casual.

Being an incredibly unpopular president correlates strongly with losing reelection, while being a popular president correlates strongly to winning reelection. I wonder if one might cause the other to happen...nah, that can't be. Must be something else that causes people to lose or win reelection.

Funny coincidence, that.

[pbrower2a]

Oklahoma, Amber Integrated: Trump approval 53-44.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200608_OK.pdf

Rather weak for Trump when one considers the state.

Tennessee: Vanderbilt University, May 2020... Trump approval 51, disapproval 47.

https://www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/2020_Spring_topline.pdf

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher