Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Person Man]

Climate Nexus, April 19, 1917 RV

Trump approval:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 26
Strongly disapprove 40

2020: Biden 49, Trump 40

GCB: D 50, R 40

Once again, he's underperforming his approval rating.

How does that even work? I guess everyone who is withholding judgment is going to vote against him?

Maybe he can win back all those people but that still wouldn't be enough. The only way he wins is if people don't vote. A lot of people still believe or at least suspect that he will 1) run a much better campaign than Biden and be ahead by September or 2) catch up enough that he pull off another upset when there are millions of "missing voters" with many of them  in Michigan and Wisconsin.

[wbrocks67]

Climate Nexus, April 19, 1917 RV

Trump approval:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 26
Strongly disapprove 40

2020: Biden 49, Trump 40

GCB: D 50, R 40

Once again, he's underperforming his approval rating.

How does that even work? I guess everyone who is withholding judgment is going to vote against him?

Maybe he can win back all those people but that still wouldn't be enough. The only way he wins is if people don't vote. A lot of people still believe or at least suspect that he will 1) run a much better campaign than Biden and be ahead by September or 2) catch up enough that he pull off another upset when there are millions of "missing voters" with many of them  in Michigan and Wisconsin.

I think the Navigator survey did a good job of pointing this out - especially in a crisis, there's about 10% that will "approve" of Trump's performance even if they dont like him just because they want to be supportive of the president. So him being at 45% approval right now doesn't necessarily mean 45% actually approve. Probably closer to that actual 40% he's getting in the polls.

[emailking]

Are these polls before or after Trump told his supporters to eat bleach?

[wbrocks67]

Minnesota, PPP

Trump job approval: 40/55 (-15)
Trump coronavirus approval: 39/56 (-17)

https://www.scribd.com/document/458622470/April-2020-PPP-MN-Poll#from_embed

[pbrower2a]

Trump came close to winning Minnesota in 2016, and we really have seen few single-state polls, So has nothing changed since 2016?

Minnesota, PPP

Trump job approval: 40/55 (-15)
Trump coronavirus approval: 39/56 (-17)

https://www.scribd.com/document/458622470/April-2020-PPP-MN-Poll#from_embed

About the same number of lakes (Ten Thousand as the state nickname goes) in which to drown his chances of re-election. Minnesota has spun out of contention for this President. COVID-19 is at the top of most people's concerns, and it is close to general approval. Should nothing really change in Minnesota then Trump loses this state by a double-digit margin.  Such is consistent with a huge collapse in Presidential support nationwide.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Badger]

Civiqs Trump Tracker (4/23)
Overall: 43/54 (-11)

Arizona: 43/55 (-12)
Colorado: 38/59 (-21)
Florida: 46/52 (-6)
Georgia: 45/51 (-6)
Iowa: 48/50 (-2)
Michigan: 44/53 (-9)
Minnesota: 44/53 (-9)
Montana: 48/50 (-2)
Nevada: 38/59 (-21)
New Hampshire: 39/56 (-17)
New Mexico: 45/52 (-7)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Ohio: 49/48 (+1)
Pennsylvania: 44/53 (-9)
South Carolina: 51/46 (+5)
Texas: 50/47 (+3)
Virginia: 40/58 (-18)
Wisconsin: 46/52 (-6)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true

Interesting #s - especially Montana and SC.

WTF Ohio?!?

[pbrower2a]

Incorrect, Trump wins ONE of PA, WI, or MI and he’ll win re-election. I think he has good odds of keeping one of those. That’s the election.

He must also not lose Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

USA Today/Suffolk, April 21-25, 1000 RV (change from Dec.)

Approve 43 (-5)
Disapprove 53 (+3)

Strongly approve 20 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 37 (+4)

Suffolk has been one of the most favorable high-quality pollsters for Trump.

[Brittain33]

USA Today/Suffolk, April 21-25, 1000 RV (change from Dec.)

Approve 43 (-5)
Disapprove 53 (+3)

Strongly approve 20 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 37 (+4)

Suffolk has been one of the most favorable high-quality pollsters for Trump.

The bleach effect.

[BudgieForce]

USA Today/Suffolk, April 21-25, 1000 RV (change from Dec.)

Approve 43 (-5)
Disapprove 53 (+3)

Strongly approve 20 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 37 (+4)

Suffolk has been one of the most favorable high-quality pollsters for Trump.

While not the same as job approval, Trump's favorables are at 39/55. Biden's are at 44/44.

I've been noticing alot more discussion on how favorable can prove to be more indicative of election results. I'm not sure Biden's numbers will stay where they are, but it seems like Biden is basically as close to a generic democrat as you can get right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Incorrect, Trump wins ONE of PA, WI, or MI and he’ll win re-election. I think he has good odds of keeping one of those. That’s the election.

He must also not lose Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio.  

The Rs see these bad poll numbers and know Trump is gonna lose in a landslide that's why they still insist Trump is favored to win WI/PA/MI which has voted 1× since 1988 for an R. SN2903 did the samething and that was part of the reason he isnt blogging

[pbrower2a]

It is far to early to call a landslide(Trump would have to sink to something like 30-65 in approval numbers after which he bounces back to about a 40-60 loss on par with Hoover 1932 or Carter 1980


But here's how I would call an impending landslide based on Trump approval:

31 June 1
33 July 1
35 August 1
36 September 1
37 October 1
40 November 1   

I'm leaving room for an October surprise

I have yet to see any effects of the President saying that people could use bleach or Lysol-like products internally to kill the Coronavirus. Heck, sulfuric acid would certainly kill UIV, but for some reason we don't use that internally!

[wbrocks67]

Trump's approval is back down to basically where it was at on Election Day 2018: -10

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?cid=rrpromo

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump's approval is back down to basically where it was at on Election Day 2018: -10

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?cid=rrpromo

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1255281731722268672

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump's approval is back down to basically where it was at on Election Day 2018: -10

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?cid=rrpromo

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1255281731722268672

The flavor of Fruit Stripe gum lasts longer than Trump's approval bumps. I was stupid for fretting so much about it then. I do still fear that he could get another one though, and at a worse time (like October), as undeserving as he is of them.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

The Bleach mishap and bloated press briefings are now being reflected in the polls. Remember, the polls lag by a week or two. Tara Reade story is now entering the news cycle. More twists yet to come.

[Tekken_Guy]

The Bleach mishap and bloated press briefings are now being reflected in the polls. Remember, the polls lag by a week or two. Tara Reade story is now entering the news cycle. More twists yet to come.

Is the public even paying attention to the Reade story.

[emailking]

Fox News is paying tons of attention to it. Elsewhere, not so much.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News is paying tons of attention to it. Elsewhere, not so much.

Even if it gains traction, it shouldn't have any effect on Trump's approval ratings.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Fox News is paying tons of attention to it. Elsewhere, not so much.

Even if it gains traction, it shouldn't have any effect on Trump's approval ratings.

Sure it will. It changes the topic, and puts Trump back on the offensive. Come on dude, think a bit...

[BudgieForce]

Fox News is paying tons of attention to it. Elsewhere, not so much.

Even if it gains traction, it shouldn't have any effect on Trump's approval ratings.

Sure it will. It changes the topic, and puts Trump back on the offensive. Come on dude, think a bit...

Respectfully, we're about to pass 60,000 deaths. You cant really change the topic, no matter how much Fox is desperately trying.

[Pericles]

If Trump is on 43% right now (538), then once the economy really goes down the toilet and people get a chance to step back from the daily horror and reflect on how it got so bad, are his ratings really going to hold up? And 43% already likely makes him a notable underdog, if it not only doesn't rise but falls by November-then that is terrible news for his re-election.

[emailking]

Yeah he's not going to get relected.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fox News is paying tons of attention to it. Elsewhere, not so much.

Even if it gains traction, it shouldn't have any effect on Trump's approval ratings.

Sure it will. It changes the topic, and puts Trump back on the offensive. Come on dude, think a bit...

Trump all he can do is keep the election closer than expected, with Latinos going 2 to 1 and AZ, CO, NV, and NM going Dem and Rs havent won AZ since McCain died, AZ is a progressive state, now

[wbrocks67]

Horrific #s for Trump.

NPR/Marist, among Registered Voters

Do you approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of the virus: 42% approve, 57% disapprove
Who would you rather have handling the pandemic: Biden 56%, Trump 40%
Who would you rather have handling the economy: Biden 51%, Trump 44%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202004280852.pdf#page=3