Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

What are the dates on that poll?

The IBD poll?  March 29-April 1, 1226 adults.  Source

[Podgy the Bear]

Hard to figure out Trump's favorability rating.  Goes from -13 to even overall, but he is -20 with independents.  No change from last month

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How is his approval rating even when he's -20 with independents?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Because it improved among Democrats.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because it improved among Democrats.

"Democrats."

[Person Man]

Because it improved among Democrats.

"Democrats."

Think the entire Trump Democrat thing might be a real thing? That because of the crisis, there's a lot more Economically Liberal, Socially Conservative types that feel at home under Trump? That's probably a bullsh**t theory, though but strange times...

[wbrocks67]

Louisiana is not a fan either. Meanwhile, Edwards getting his best marks ever.

Trump job approval: 52/41 (+11)
John Bel Edwards job approval: 66/18 (+48)

Trump virus approval: 50/41 (+9)
John Bel Edwards virus approval: 68/16 (+52)

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LouisianaResultsApril2020.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Louisiana is not a fan either. Meanwhile, Edwards getting his best marks ever.

Trump job approval: 52/41 (+11)
John Bel Edwards job approval: 66/18 (+48)

Trump virus approval: 50/41 (+9)
John Bel Edwards virus approval: 68/16 (+52)

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LouisianaResultsApril2020.pdf

At this point Trump easily wins Louisiana, but maybe not by the double-digit margins to which we are accustomed throughout much of the South.  Louisiana should be deep blue if Trump is winning nationwide, and not medium blue. The opposite side would be that a state like New Jersey or Washington giving a 52% approval to Obama in 2012; such would suggest that Obama were losing nation even if Washington were a sure thing.

I see Trump support tanking even in unlikely places in view of this poll. Enough that he would win only seven states as did Hoover in 1932 or six states and Dee Cee in 1980 for Carter in 1980? Let's not rush. I'm still assuming a 'normal', close election  

Trump:

approval 40% or less (Trump has no chance)
approval 41-45% and disapproval 50% or higher(likely Biden)
higher disapproval but disapproval under 50% (edge to Biden)
higher approval than disapproval but under 50% (edge to Trump)
approval 50-55% (Trump wins barring a collapse of support)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because it improved among Democrats.

"Democrats."

Think the entire Trump Democrat thing might be a real thing? That because of the crisis, there's a lot more Economically Liberal, Socially Conservative types that feel at home under Trump? That's probably a bullsh**t theory, though but strange times...

I'm hoping that they are people who still won't vote for him under any circumstance but can't resist the urge to try and be "fair" to him.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Those are weak Trump numbers considering the situation. Although if the lockdown is over and the economy doing well in Q3, he certainly still has a chance.

[wbrocks67]

The rally is over.

CNN Poll, April 3-6
Trump job approval: 44/51 (-7) .... 44/53 (-9) among RV
Trump virus approval: 45/52 (-7) .... 44/54 (-10) among RV

And this:

A majority of Americans -- 55% -- now say the federal government has done a poor job preventing the spread of coronavirus in the United States, up eight points in about a week,

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/cnn-poll-coronavirus-april-8/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_content=2020-04-08T10%3A33%3A12&utm_term=link&utm_source=twCNN

[Brittain33]

The rally is over.

CNN Poll, April 3-6
Trump job approval: 44/51 (-7)

Where are you seeing the drop in job approval? The article includes this paragraph:

“The President's overall approval rating stands at 44% approve to 51% disapprove, little changed from a 43% approve to 53% disapprove reading in each of the previous three CNN polls. On handling health care policy, his ratings stand at 42% approve to 52% disapprove, his best approval rating on that topic since 2017.”

[wbrocks67]

The rally is over.

CNN Poll, April 3-6
Trump job approval: 44/51 (-7)

Where are you seeing the drop in job approval? The article includes this paragraph:

“The President's overall approval rating stands at 44% approve to 51% disapprove, little changed from a 43% approve to 53% disapprove reading in each of the previous three CNN polls. On handling health care policy, his ratings stand at 42% approve to 52% disapprove, his best approval rating on that topic since 2017.”

The past CNN polls are useless because they were all mostly before all of this. I'm comparing to recent high-water mark polls that had him either in low positives or only -1, -2 approval. His approval is down to -10 among RV, way below where it's been at in most recent polls.

Also, in the CNN poll specifically, the trend for "is the federal government doing a good job to prevent the spread of the virus":

March 4-7: 49% good job / 43% poor job (good +6)
March 24-29: 48% good job / 47% poor job (good +1)
April 3-6: 41% good job / 55% poor job (poor +14)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

APR 3-6, 2020
A/B
CNN/SSRS
https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/04/08/rel4a.-.coronavirus.pdf

1,002   A

Job Approval
44 (+1 since MAR 4-7)
51 (-2)

Corona
45 (+4)
52 (+4)


875   RV

Job Approval
44 (-1)
53 (+1)

Corona
44 (+2)
54 (+6)

[wbrocks67]

More bad news for Trump from Morning Consult poll:

Trump approval: 44/54 (-10)
Definitely/probably re-elect: 41% / probably/definitely won’t re-elect: 50%

Trump Corona approval: excellent/good 40%, fair/poor: 54%
Trump administration: 38% doing right amount in response to outbreak, 50% not doing enough

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-56ae-d92d-a5ff-deaeba860000

[wbrocks67]

3rd poll this morning to show Trump's approval rating back to negative double digits:

Navigator Survey tracking poll now has it at 44/54 as well

https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Navigator-Daily-Tracker-Topline-F04.07.20.pdf

[Podgy the Bear]

Trump is back down to his irreducible minimum of 43-44%.    And his disapproval is now consistent at the 51-53% range.

For November, it will come down to turnout.  His group will come out and vote.  The question is if the other side will do so in the same proportion.    If so, we're looking at Biden taking back the Rust Belt trifecta, AZ, probably FL and NC, and possibly IA, OH and GA.

And the economic downturn is going to affect some areas very hard and this will result in some surprises.  Look at IN in 2008. 

[Inmate Trump]

Is it any wonder?

Time and time again he had the opportunity to be a reassuring and calm presence to the American people in the face of a crisis. Instead he attacked Democrats and reporters.

He had the chance to make a push for science when science is the answer to our prayers right now, but instead all he can do is spread misinformation and claim the warmer weather will be a miracle cure.

All the while during this outbreak he’s continued to conduct shady dealings and firings while no one is looking.

[pbrower2a]

Not that I predict something like this... his approval ratings have been below 40% at times after some egregious misconduct. 

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1247888039247892481

[wbrocks67]

YouGov:

Trump Virus Approval
Adults 46/47 (-1)
RVs 46/51 (-5)

Trump Job Approval
Adults 45/51 (-6)
RVs 45/53 (-8)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ogvntw3mu9/econTabReport.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

To add to the previous post:

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 5-7, 1500 adults including 1147 RV

Adults:

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+5)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)


RV:

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 53 (+3)

Strongly approve 30 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+3)

2020 (RV only):

Generic D 47 (+2), Trump 42 (nc)
Biden 48 (+2), Trump 42 (nc)
Sanders 48 (+3), Trump 42 (-2)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 39 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 6-7, 1116 adults (1-week change)

Approve 40 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (+4)

They have not (yet) published strongly approve/disapprove or RV numbers this week (they're sometimes oddly inconsistent that way).

[Person Man]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 6-7, 1116 adults (1-week change)

Approve 40 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (+4)

They have not (yet) published strongly approve/disapprove or RV numbers this week (they're sometimes oddly inconsistent that way).

Like clockwork...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

APR 3-6, 2020
A/B
CNBC/Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
804 A

https://scribd.com/document/455565763/FI12869aCNBCAAESQ1Topline

Job Approval:
46 (+ since DEC 10-13)
43 (-6)


So, two Gold Standard polls today. CNN shows -7 (-9 RV). CNBC +3.



Corona:
CDC 75/17
Fed 57/16
Trump 50/45
Congress (R) 47/39
Congress (D) 45/42


H2H (RV)
Biden 44%
Trump 39%