IA: Selzer & Co/Des Moines Register: Trump +10 vs Biden

[RI]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/trump-approval-favorable-ratings-break-even-iowa-poll/5000775002/

Trump 51, Biden 41
Trump 53, Sanders 41

[Bidenworth2020]

Brutal numbers for Biden and Sanders this far out.

[MT Treasurer]

iOwA iS mOrE eLaStIc ThAn FlOrIdA aNd OhIo AnD gEoRgIa

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lol. #iowaflipsbeforetexas

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R.

[W]

To me thanks to the reputation of the Selzer poll this may not just be a bad sign in Iowa, but in the Midwest at-large.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

To me thanks to the reputation of the Selzer poll this may not just be a bad sign in Iowa, but in the Midwest at-large.

Hence why Texas can’t be triaged because “muh 26 years and no wins”

[Ljube]

This is eight months from election, but I would still like to comment.

A result like this also means that Trump leads in WI, MI and PA too.

[Old Man Willow]

This is eight months from election, but I would still like to comment.

A result like this also means that Trump leads in WI, MI and PA too.

It means no such thing. Their results were not remotely close to IA in 2016 and uniform swing doesn't exist.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

If both this and the national-level aggregates are true, the map would be absolutely wild given what it likely tells us about the Midwest and Southwest. 

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This is eight months from election, but I would still like to comment.

A result like this also means that Trump leads in WI, MI and PA too.

It means no such thing. Their results were not remotely close to IA in 2016 and uniform swing doesn't exist.

The rural areas of Iowa and Wisconsin are very similar politically. Very Lutheran heavy, Obama-friendly, then swing hard right in 2014/2016. The only thing keeping Wisconsin from getting out of hand is Madison and Milwaukee

People, my username isn’t a complete joke

[jamestroll]

And despite this poll,

DuPage County, Illinois will STILL vote for Biden.

And yes I think its possible Dallas County, Iowa may vote for Biden even if Trump wins statewide by 10 points!

[pbrower2a]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/trump-approval-favorable-ratings-break-even-iowa-poll/5000775002/

Trump 51, Biden 41
Trump 53, Sanders 41

Maybe 2016 wasn't so big a freak as it seemed at first.

Still, the 51% (which is obviously enough to win the state) is likely a ceiling.  

50 A 47 D. Lean R -- likely voters.

 

[Ljube]

This is eight months from election, but I would still like to comment.

A result like this also means that Trump leads in WI, MI and PA too.

It means no such thing. Their results were not remotely close to IA in 2016 and uniform swing doesn't exist.

You are wrong.
Their results in 2016 were Trump +7 and that was the biggest indication that Trump was going to win not only Iowa handily, but also MI, PA and WI.

[Ljube]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/trump-approval-favorable-ratings-break-even-iowa-poll/5000775002/

Trump 51, Biden 41
Trump 53, Sanders 41

Maybe 2016 wasn't so big a freak as it seemed at first.

Still, the 51% (which is obviously enough to win the state) is likely a ceiling.  

50 A 47 D. Lean R.

Pbrower, I need to ask you the same question I asked you four years ago.
What about Michigan?

[538Electoral]

Sounds right.

[psychprofessor]

This is eight months from election, but I would still like to comment.

A result like this also means that Trump leads in WI, MI and PA too.

It means no such thing. Their results were not remotely close to IA in 2016 and uniform swing doesn't exist.

You are wrong.
Their results in 2016 were Trump +7 and that was the biggest indication that Trump was going to win not only Iowa handily, but also MI, PA and WI.

We literally have a poll from Michigan yesterday, from A+ Monmouth, showing Biden up 7; yet you take a poll from Iowa and apply it to Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Weird.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Hot take: he won't win Iowa by anywhere near this much.

[DrScholl]

After they flopped with the caucus and then declined to release the poll, I'm not sure how trustworthy they are. Trump could win Iowa, but I'm not sure how trustworthy Selzer is anymore.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Ten-point lead in a swing state after impeachment during the worst display of incompetence for an administration in a national crisis since Katrina.

Cool, cool.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Ten-point lead in a swing state after impeachment during the worst display of incompetence for an administration in a national crisis since Katrina.

Cool, cool.

I think you misspelled the word red state.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Ten-point lead in a swing state after impeachment during the worst display of incompetence for an administration in a national crisis since Katrina.

Cool, cool.

I think you misspelled the word red state.

Democrats flipped two House seats, almost flipped a third, and came within inches of winning the governorship.  It's a pink state, but the Midwest is a weird region politically.

[Xing]

IA is Likely R. News at 11.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lol. #iowaflipsbeforetexas

Not just Texas, it’ll flip before Florida and Georgia too! And Ohio, duh.

no

[pbrower2a]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/trump-approval-favorable-ratings-break-even-iowa-poll/5000775002/

Trump 51, Biden 41
Trump 53, Sanders 41

Maybe 2016 wasn't so big a freak as it seemed at first, and 2018 is not a reversion to the norm.

Still, the 51% (which is obviously enough to win the state) is likely a ceiling.  

50 A 47 D. Lean R.

Pbrower, I need to ask you the same question I asked you four years ago.
What about Michigan?

Polling is always a snapshot of the reality of the time. Reality is dynamic, and in politics that encompasses foreign policy, economic results, and the personality of the Leadership and those around that person.

I can see Trump winning nationwide if he succeeds at doing what he did in 2016 again -- grinding down the will of his opposition to vote against him because they increasingly see politics as a sordid, soiled activity. I expect him to try that again because it is his character, which really is stable. (I got a tip-off from a therapist: narcissistic people show extreme rigidity of thought, and Donald Trump is one of the most blatant examples of narcissism to have ever existed). Narcissists are nasty people with whom to deal; I would not want one as a spouse, teacher, preacher, business partner, or boss.  The question: will it work this time?

Like others, Iowans better know Donald Trump than they did in 2016. Is he more or less likable?

Iowans who at once gave him a 35-60 split in approval may have done so when they were scared of the consequences of the President's threat of a trade war. The trade war seemed to peter out, which may have made him less ominous. But I look at the "50" and see that as one of the highest ratings that I have seen, and within the margin of error in which he could still lose. Still, there are good reasons for Trump having had an approval rating of only 35 at one time. 

Iowa is one of the biggest agribusiness states, and it has a large portion of its population in rural areas. It could be that farmers see few pathological narcissists in real life (can you imagine a very narcissistic person staying on the family farm to do dirty, hard work?) and see them only from a safe distance, as with politicians and Hollywood celebrities.

Iowa is much more rural than Michigan and has a much-smaller minority population as a share.

It is regrettable that I cannot import the graph, Note well that approval results for Iowa have been all over the place:

Trump’s latest numbers overshadow his lowest approval rating of 35% — about a year into his presidency, in December 2017 — then coupled with a 60% disapproval. That Iowa Poll also showed just 29% of respondents felt the country was moving in the right direction, while 60% felt it wasn't.

Trump has done some things to assuage voters that he once scared. Will he continue to succeed at that? If he does, then he will win re-election. If you must do terrible things to shape the zone of election get elected, then do them early and get them over with.

Donald Trump is still the worst sort of pig possible -- a fascist, racist, male-chauvinist pig.

After they flopped with the caucus and then declined to release the poll, I'm not sure how trustworthy they are. Trump could win Iowa, but I'm not sure how trustworthy Selzer is anymore.

One possible explanation. This will become irrelevant by convention time. Other things, such as the valuation of the DJIA, will matter far more.  But let those 401k's hurt, and a change of President could look very good. It's the economy, stupid!