SC-CBS/YouGov: Biden +5 vs. Sanders

[Tender Branson]

This CBS News survey is conducted by YouGov between February 20-22, 2020. A representative sample of 2,000 registered voters in South Carolina was selected, including 1,238 self-identified Democrats, as well as independents who plan to vote in the Democratic primary this year. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based upon voter registration lists and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as the 2016 presidential vote. The margin of error is approximately 5.5 points.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/south-carolina-primary-polls-2020-biden-sanders-steyer-democrats-cbs-news

[Tender Branson]

Looks about right, but Bernie will make it close, or maybe win.

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

Don't think it will happen but if Bernie pulls off SC that's the whole ballgame. No one would have even joked about this as a possibility a few months back.

[Gass3268]

Steyer is killing Biden here:

[Senator Spark]

Looks about right, but Bernie will make it close, or maybe win.

Yeah I mean the poll is within the MOE.

[Skye]

So far the race looks like a tossup. More so after NV.

[Rookie Yinzer]

What Biden allowed to happen here is shameful. He is lazy.

[jaichind]

After NV I think Biden has some momentum to try to get some Black votes back from Steyer even as Sanders I suspect will also gain.

[Volrath50]

Don't think it will happen but if Bernie pulls off SC that's the whole ballgame. No one would have even joked about this as a possibility a few months back.

Yep, Bernie has a real chance to end this next Saturday - although he's still in a good spot even if Biden pulls through. He seems to finally be getting major media coverage for his win in Nevada (not as many "third place is the real winner" takes), so we'll see if that pulls him past the finish line

[Shadows]

Sanders will get a boost out of Nevada, whether that & turnout is enough to beat Biden is anyone's guess. This will be a close race & Biden has underperformed in poll after poll.

Sanders is underperforming among White Voters here bigtime.He is @ 23% vs 30% odd nationally. The gap among Black voters is not huge & Sanders is winning the youth vote in a landslide so higher young African American turnout can help Bernie close that gap. But he has to start winning White voters decisively. Here, Joe Pete Warren are all getting 18% odd among White voters.

[President Johnson]

To be completely honest, I'd much have Uncle Joe losing instead of a narrow victory to allows him to drag this on. And I'm saying this as a total Biden hack. Either he wins big time and rebounds ahead of Super Tuesday, or let's end this and see whether Mike Bloomberg can do well on Super Tuesday (though he needs to work on his debate performances). Mayor Pete would also be great, but I don't see him overcoming struggles with minorities. But the moderate lane needs to stop splitting votes before it's too late.

[Xing]

Biden getting 2nd (a very distant 2nd, but still) in NV probably gives him enough of a boost to win SC, but he’s almost certainly not going to win by the kind of margin necessary to regain his front-runner status. Winning the Deep South by 5-10% (or even 15%) over Sanders won’t offset losing Texas and getting beaten badly in California.

[heatcharger]

Joe Biden is the last man standing who can prevent Bernie Sanders from winning a delegate plurality or majority. He's also the last man standing who represents people like me. Preferring he lose the beautiful state of South Carolina, just to boost Michael Bloomberg, shows a fundamental lack of understanding of the Democratic Party.

The Nevada results, besides showing Bernie's rampage with Hispanic voters out west, show that there's still a slice of the Democratic Party who will stand behind Biden through thick and thin. I can only hope they're in large enough numbers next Saturday.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I think Biden could win by more than this, perhaps by 10 points or so.

Early voting has been going on in SC for a while, and polls in the past have typically tended to underestimate the turnout/vote share of older African American women in particular.

In 2016, the YouGov polls in SC were over-optimistic for Sanders in SC, and I think the same may be the case to some degree this time around as well. So I would not get to over-optimistic/over-confident in thinking that NV momentum is going to make this a Bernie win, or even a single digit race.

[Eraserhead]

Biden probably wins by 8 or 9 points in the end. I think Steyer underperforms.

[IceSpear]

Remember the hot takes in 2015-2019 from Atlas and the pundits about how if only Strong Candidate™ Joe Biden jumped in he would've destroyed Hillary and Bernie, swept all 50 states in the primary, and crushed Trump in a massive landslide?

Meanwhile, back in reality, his flailing campaign is putting up abysmal levels of support in a state Hillary won by 50 points. Not only would he not have the won the 2016 primary, he likely would've gotten a chain of 3rd place finishes until he dropped out in humiliation, which is exactly what I said in 2015.

Anyway, SC is in the top ten states most favorable to Biden and least favorable to Sanders. Any universe where Biden is winning the nomination is one where he's taking this by at least 20 points.

[Adam Griffin]

[MillennialModerate]

To be completely honest, I'd much have Uncle Joe losing instead of a narrow victory to allows him to drag this on. And I'm saying this as a total Biden hack. Either he wins big time and rebounds ahead of Super Tuesday, or let's end this and see whether Mike Bloomberg can do well on Super Tuesday (though he needs to work on his debate performances). Mayor Pete would also be great, but I don't see him overcoming struggles with minorities. But the moderate lane needs to stop splitting votes before it's too late.

Agree 100%

[bilaps]

Biden probably wins by 8 or 9 points in the end. I think Steyer underperforms.

Yeah, I agree. I can't see Bernie winning this, maybe if Bloomberg was on the ballot instead of Steyer could be close. If Bernie gets around 23% i would be very pleased. Here and in other deep south states, and focus on Cali, Texas, NC, maybe even VA

[LAKISYLVANIA]

To be completely honest, I'd much have Uncle Joe losing instead of a narrow victory to allows him to drag this on. And I'm saying this as a total Biden hack. Either he wins big time and rebounds ahead of Super Tuesday, or let's end this and see whether Mike Bloomberg can do well on Super Tuesday (though he needs to work on his debate performances). Mayor Pete would also be great, but I don't see him overcoming struggles with minorities. But the moderate lane needs to stop splitting votes before it's too late.

I'd rather have you support Biden and stay true to your principles. Now you sound desperate only wanting to stop Sanders. Biden is a million times better than Bloomberg.

Do you want him to be president:
- Not the most electable, but in polls the least electable and least likely to flip back the Rust Belt states.
- A candidate that has non-disclosure agreements with women, and we may not hear ever the truth
- A candidate that will be slaughtered in a debate with Trump
- A candidate that used racist policies as mayor of NYC.
- A candidate exploited prison labor
- A candidate that will replace a corrupt billionaire with another one.
- A candidate that used to be a Republican, much further right-wing than the CDU and esp. SPD, even if you're a third way adherent.

We say no. I made the mistake of supporting Trump, but you're making a huge mistake by supporting him. He's equally as bad as Trump, only not openly a douchebag.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It would really drive home the changes in Bernie's coalition since 2016 if he got a higher vote share in South Carolina than in New Hampshire.

[President Johnson]

To be completely honest, I'd much have Uncle Joe losing instead of a narrow victory to allows him to drag this on. And I'm saying this as a total Biden hack. Either he wins big time and rebounds ahead of Super Tuesday, or let's end this and see whether Mike Bloomberg can do well on Super Tuesday (though he needs to work on his debate performances). Mayor Pete would also be great, but I don't see him overcoming struggles with minorities. But the moderate lane needs to stop splitting votes before it's too late.

I'd rather have you support Biden and stay true to your principles. Now you sound desperate only wanting to stop Sanders. Biden is a million times better than Bloomberg.

Do you want him to be president:
- Not the most electable, but in polls the least electable and least likely to flip back the Rust Belt states.
- A candidate that has non-disclosure agreements with women, and we may not hear ever the truth
- A candidate that will be slaughtered in a debate with Trump
- A candidate that used racist policies as mayor of NYC.
- A candidate exploited prison labor
- A candidate that will replace a corrupt billionaire with another one.
- A candidate that used to be a Republican, much further right-wing than the CDU and esp. SPD, even if you're a third way adherent.

We say no. I made the mistake of supporting Trump, but you're making a huge mistake by supporting him. He's equally as bad as Trump, only not openly a douchebag.

Don't worry, I'll stick with Uncle Joe as long as he's in the race. I've always been a fan of him and always will be. However, if he can't win, there needs to be another moderate to contest (I will support Bernie in the general election). What I like about Bloomberg is his self-made status and brand as pragmatic problem solver. If elected, he'll govern with pragmatism and develop sound solutions for climate change, economic development and stand up to the gun lobby.

And your points, well:
- According to polls, he's doing well against Trump nationally and battlegrounds. He can build an insurce in the Sun Belt like Florida and Arizona, where Bernie appears to weaker
- The agreements are with his business that employs 25,000 people and is largely recognized as good employer that pays fair wages and has women in senior positions
- I agree, he needs to work on his debate performance.
- He at least had the guts to apologize; also needs to be noted that crime went way down under his watch. He has endorsements from major black officials as well
- Appears to be unknowningly, he apologized and stopped it
- There is no evidence of Bloomberg being corrupt. He hasn't defrauded others, cheated with taxes or paid hush money like Trump. Unlike Trump, he earned his wealth and didn't inherit a nickel.
- He ran as Republican to avoid the Democratic primary, and governed as center-left independent. He was never a true Republican, even though he worked across the aisle to get things done.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Remember the hot takes in 2015-2019 from Atlas and the pundits about how if only Strong Candidate™ Joe Biden jumped in he would've destroyed Hillary and Bernie, swept all 50 states in the primary, and crushed Trump in a massive landslide?

Meanwhile, back in reality, his flailing campaign is putting up abysmal levels of support in a state Hillary won by 50 points. Not only would he not have the won the 2016 primary, he likely would've gotten a chain of 3rd place finishes until he dropped out in humiliation, which is exactly what I said in 2015.

Anyway, SC is in the top ten states most favorable to Biden and least favorable to Sanders. Any universe where Biden is winning the nomination is one where he's taking this by at least 20 points.

White men are shown grace and given the benefit of the doubt even when history tells us flat out who that person is. Biden is a lousy candidate for President and better candidates (Beto, Kamala, Julian) were forced out of the race to prop him up.

Hillary Clinton was a stronger and better candidate than Biden and if she stayed out in 2016 and let Biden run and lose she’d be leading this field by double digits in SC right now.

I just never understood the narrative that Biden had the connection to black South Carolinians that Clinton did. Yeah he had name ID but the affinity for the Clintons runs deep and was only disrupted by a once in a generation orator and politician who was a history making candidate as a black man.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

To be completely honest, I'd much have Uncle Joe losing instead of a narrow victory to allows him to drag this on. And I'm saying this as a total Biden hack. Either he wins big time and rebounds ahead of Super Tuesday, or let's end this and see whether Mike Bloomberg can do well on Super Tuesday (though he needs to work on his debate performances). Mayor Pete would also be great, but I don't see him overcoming struggles with minorities. But the moderate lane needs to stop splitting votes before it's too late.

I'd rather have you support Biden and stay true to your principles. Now you sound desperate only wanting to stop Sanders. Biden is a million times better than Bloomberg.

Do you want him to be president:
- Not the most electable, but in polls the least electable and least likely to flip back the Rust Belt states.
- A candidate that has non-disclosure agreements with women, and we may not hear ever the truth
- A candidate that will be slaughtered in a debate with Trump
- A candidate that used racist policies as mayor of NYC.
- A candidate exploited prison labor
- A candidate that will replace a corrupt billionaire with another one.
- A candidate that used to be a Republican, much further right-wing than the CDU and esp. SPD, even if you're a third way adherent.

We say no. I made the mistake of supporting Trump, but you're making a huge mistake by supporting him. He's equally as bad as Trump, only not openly a douchebag.

Don't worry, I'll stick with Uncle Joe as long as he's in the race. I've always been a fan of him and always will be. However, if he can't win, there needs to be another moderate to contest (I will support Bernie in the general election). What I like about Bloomberg is his self-made status and brand as pragmatic problem solver. If elected, he'll govern with pragmatism and develop sound solutions for climate change, economic development and stand up to the gun lobby.

And your points, well:
- According to polls, he's doing well against Trump nationally and battlegrounds. He can build an insurce in the Sun Belt like Florida and Arizona, where Bernie appears to weaker
- The agreements are with his business that employs 25,000 people and is largely recognized as good employer that pays fair wages and has women in senior positions
- I agree, he needs to work on his debate performance.
- He at least had the guts to apologize; also needs to be noted that crime went way down under his watch. He has endorsements from major black officials as well
- Appears to be unknowningly, he apologized and stopped it
- There is no evidence of Bloomberg being corrupt. He hasn't defrauded others, cheated with taxes or paid hush money like Trump. Unlike Trump, he earned his wealth and didn't inherit a nickel.
- He ran as Republican to avoid the Democratic primary, and governed as center-left independent. He was never a true Republican, even though he worked across the aisle to get things done.

Did he release his tax returns? How did he pay for the disclosure agreements?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie can win SC with 1 week left