SC-CBS/YouGov: Biden +5 vs. Sanders

[President Johnson]

To be completely honest, I'd much have Uncle Joe losing instead of a narrow victory to allows him to drag this on. And I'm saying this as a total Biden hack. Either he wins big time and rebounds ahead of Super Tuesday, or let's end this and see whether Mike Bloomberg can do well on Super Tuesday (though he needs to work on his debate performances). Mayor Pete would also be great, but I don't see him overcoming struggles with minorities. But the moderate lane needs to stop splitting votes before it's too late.

I'd rather have you support Biden and stay true to your principles. Now you sound desperate only wanting to stop Sanders. Biden is a million times better than Bloomberg.

Do you want him to be president:
- Not the most electable, but in polls the least electable and least likely to flip back the Rust Belt states.
- A candidate that has non-disclosure agreements with women, and we may not hear ever the truth
- A candidate that will be slaughtered in a debate with Trump
- A candidate that used racist policies as mayor of NYC.
- A candidate exploited prison labor
- A candidate that will replace a corrupt billionaire with another one.
- A candidate that used to be a Republican, much further right-wing than the CDU and esp. SPD, even if you're a third way adherent.

We say no. I made the mistake of supporting Trump, but you're making a huge mistake by supporting him. He's equally as bad as Trump, only not openly a douchebag.

Don't worry, I'll stick with Uncle Joe as long as he's in the race. I've always been a fan of him and always will be. However, if he can't win, there needs to be another moderate to contest (I will support Bernie in the general election). What I like about Bloomberg is his self-made status and brand as pragmatic problem solver. If elected, he'll govern with pragmatism and develop sound solutions for climate change, economic development and stand up to the gun lobby.

And your points, well:
- According to polls, he's doing well against Trump nationally and battlegrounds. He can build an insurce in the Sun Belt like Florida and Arizona, where Bernie appears to weaker
- The agreements are with his business that employs 25,000 people and is largely recognized as good employer that pays fair wages and has women in senior positions
- I agree, he needs to work on his debate performance.
- He at least had the guts to apologize; also needs to be noted that crime went way down under his watch. He has endorsements from major black officials as well
- Appears to be unknowningly, he apologized and stopped it
- There is no evidence of Bloomberg being corrupt. He hasn't defrauded others, cheated with taxes or paid hush money like Trump. Unlike Trump, he earned his wealth and didn't inherit a nickel.
- He ran as Republican to avoid the Democratic primary, and governed as center-left independent. He was never a true Republican, even though he worked across the aisle to get things done.

Did he release his tax returns? How did he pay for the disclosure agreements?

He promised to do so and I believe him. That this is complicated stuff with a 64 billion dollar guy is believeable. Probably his company paid (update: Bloomberg says the women can release them if they want so; maybe has been discussed elsewhere).

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[LAKISYLVANIA]

To be completely honest, I'd much have Uncle Joe losing instead of a narrow victory to allows him to drag this on. And I'm saying this as a total Biden hack. Either he wins big time and rebounds ahead of Super Tuesday, or let's end this and see whether Mike Bloomberg can do well on Super Tuesday (though he needs to work on his debate performances). Mayor Pete would also be great, but I don't see him overcoming struggles with minorities. But the moderate lane needs to stop splitting votes before it's too late.

I'd rather have you support Biden and stay true to your principles. Now you sound desperate only wanting to stop Sanders. Biden is a million times better than Bloomberg.

Do you want him to be president:
- Not the most electable, but in polls the least electable and least likely to flip back the Rust Belt states.
- A candidate that has non-disclosure agreements with women, and we may not hear ever the truth
- A candidate that will be slaughtered in a debate with Trump
- A candidate that used racist policies as mayor of NYC.
- A candidate exploited prison labor
- A candidate that will replace a corrupt billionaire with another one.
- A candidate that used to be a Republican, much further right-wing than the CDU and esp. SPD, even if you're a third way adherent.

We say no. I made the mistake of supporting Trump, but you're making a huge mistake by supporting him. He's equally as bad as Trump, only not openly a douchebag.

Don't worry, I'll stick with Uncle Joe as long as he's in the race. I've always been a fan of him and always will be. However, if he can't win, there needs to be another moderate to contest (I will support Bernie in the general election). What I like about Bloomberg is his self-made status and brand as pragmatic problem solver. If elected, he'll govern with pragmatism and develop sound solutions for climate change, economic development and stand up to the gun lobby.

And your points, well:
- According to polls, he's doing well against Trump nationally and battlegrounds. He can build an insurce in the Sun Belt like Florida and Arizona, where Bernie appears to weaker
- The agreements are with his business that employs 25,000 people and is largely recognized as good employer that pays fair wages and has women in senior positions
- I agree, he needs to work on his debate performance.
- He at least had the guts to apologize; also needs to be noted that crime went way down under his watch. He has endorsements from major black officials as well
- Appears to be unknowningly, he apologized and stopped it
- There is no evidence of Bloomberg being corrupt. He hasn't defrauded others, cheated with taxes or paid hush money like Trump. Unlike Trump, he earned his wealth and didn't inherit a nickel.
- He ran as Republican to avoid the Democratic primary, and governed as center-left independent. He was never a true Republican, even though he worked across the aisle to get things done.

Did he release his tax returns? How did he pay for the disclosure agreements?

He promised to do so and I believe him. That this is complicated stuff with a 64 billion dollar guy is believeable. Probably his company paid (update: Bloomberg says the women can release them if they want so; maybe has been discussed elsewhere).

Okay fair enough. We differ from opinion. I think you would be a stronger debator than Bloomberg though, at least online (lol). I can't trust him. And I hope you'll stay in the Biden camp, because that's acceptable to me. I've been harsh towards Biden in the past, maybe unjustified. But Biden is a million times better than Bloomberg, and anything he did to make me feel accepting towards a Bloomberg presidency is gone in a week of negative coverage (weak debates, Warren repeatedly attacking him, bad news involving his campaign). Look, if he isn't able to survive this, how is he going to survive against Trump who knows him very well and dig in his past to reveal skeletons in his closet, and confront him with it. I don't think Bloomberg is a viable candidacy, and it's not a person i would support in any circumstances. If France 2017 and USA 2016 teached me one thing, it's to abstain when you dislike both candidates, and not to pick a lesser of the less (Macron and Trump in this case).

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Either Biden narrowly wins SC and uses that “victory” to continue on and split the remaining “moderate” vote, thus allowing Sanders to easily win most of the remaining contests...or Sanders narrowly wins, essentially ending this thing once and for all. The end result is the same.

[jaichind]

Either Biden narrowly wins SC and uses that “victory” to continue on and split the remaining “moderate” vote, thus allowing Sanders to easily win most of the remaining contests...or Sanders narrowly wins, essentially ending this thing once and for all. The end result is the same.

But polls show that if any of the other "moderate" candidates took on Sanders 1-on-1 they will lose.  So the best way to do a "favorite son" strategy where several "moderate" candidates run and all/most get above 15% to get a share of the delegates with a seat at the table if they can hold Sanders to below 45% of the overall delegates. 

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Either Biden narrowly wins SC and uses that “victory” to continue on and split the remaining “moderate” vote, thus allowing Sanders to easily win most of the remaining contests...or Sanders narrowly wins, essentially ending this thing once and for all. The end result is the same.

But polls show that if any of the other "moderate" candidates took on Sanders 1-on-1 they will lose.  So the best way to do a "favorite son" strategy where several "moderate" candidates run and all/most get above 15% to get a share of the delegates with a seat at the table if they can hold Sanders to below 45% of the overall delegates. 

That’s a good strategy to re-elect Trump, yes

[jaichind]

Either Biden narrowly wins SC and uses that “victory” to continue on and split the remaining “moderate” vote, thus allowing Sanders to easily win most of the remaining contests...or Sanders narrowly wins, essentially ending this thing once and for all. The end result is the same.

But polls show that if any of the other "moderate" candidates took on Sanders 1-on-1 they will lose.  So the best way to do a "favorite son" strategy where several "moderate" candidates run and all/most get above 15% to get a share of the delegates with a seat at the table if they can hold Sanders to below 45% of the overall delegates. 

That’s a good strategy to re-elect Trump, yes

Sure.  I am not arguing this is a good idea from the Democratic Party's point of view only that the way to stop Sanders is NOT to try to get the field down to take on Sanders 1-on-1 but to run many candidates and split of the Sanders vote where possible.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Super Tuesday is 3 days after SC and Biden hasn't spent or done a damn thing in those states.

While Sanders is banking early votes in California/Texas/North Carolina/Colorado as we speak, Biden is spending a week in the weeds of South Carolina trying to prevent a loss or single-digit victory.

Unless Biden reverts back to a 10%+ romp by Saturday, the big story coming out of SC will be his middling margin of victory or his unthinkable defeat. And come Super Tuesday, a potential Biden/Bloomberg fracturing in the South while Sanders crushes everywhere else.

[NHI]

Biden for the moment, but by a smaller margin if he wins, however I suspect Bernie will make it close, if not possibly win.

[Green Line]

Bernie will win by 5+, maybe even 10.  Biden is crashing, hard.  Momentum is everything.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm reading Clyburn is likely to endorse Biden the morning after the Tuesday debate. Would that make the difference between a minuscule win/loss or a Nevada-like win for Biden?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/23/clyburn-to-endorse-biden-south-carolina-116986

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is behind in every state and is only within margin of error of Bernie, if doesnt matter, Bernie doesnt have to win SC, he is gonna win Cali

[redjohn]

A result of +5 in SC is not good for Biden. His campaign and the media will peddle it as some sort of comeback, which it is not considering he's been leading by 20 points most of the cycle there and it's easily his most favorable territory.

[junior chįmp]

A result of +5 in SC is not good for Biden. His campaign and the media will peddle it as some sort of comeback, which it is not considering he's been leading by 20 points most of the cycle there and it's easily his most favorable territory.

Biden is the comeback kid because as we all know....past election outcomes live on forever and repeat themselves till the end of time. Sure....Biden cant fill a janitors closet of people excited for his campaign or raise grassroots money without billionaire donors dumping money into his campaign in exchange for legislative favors in which Biden pretends to care for the little guy.

[CookieDamage]

To be completely honest, I'd much have Uncle Joe losing instead of a narrow victory to allows him to drag this on. And I'm saying this as a total Biden hack. Either he wins big time and rebounds ahead of Super Tuesday, or let's end this and see whether Mike Bloomberg can do well on Super Tuesday (though he needs to work on his debate performances). Mayor Pete would also be great, but I don't see him overcoming struggles with minorities. But the moderate lane needs to stop splitting votes before it's too late.

I'd rather have you support Biden and stay true to your principles. Now you sound desperate only wanting to stop Sanders. Biden is a million times better than Bloomberg.

Do you want him to be president:
- Not the most electable, but in polls the least electable and least likely to flip back the Rust Belt states.
- A candidate that has non-disclosure agreements with women, and we may not hear ever the truth
- A candidate that will be slaughtered in a debate with Trump
- A candidate that used racist policies as mayor of NYC.
- A candidate exploited prison labor
- A candidate that will replace a corrupt billionaire with another one.
- A candidate that used to be a Republican, much further right-wing than the CDU and esp. SPD, even if you're a third way adherent.

We say no. I made the mistake of supporting Trump, but you're making a huge mistake by supporting him. He's equally as bad as Trump, only not openly a douchebag.

Don't worry, I'll stick with Uncle Joe as long as he's in the race. I've always been a fan of him and always will be. However, if he can't win, there needs to be another moderate to contest (I will support Bernie in the general election). What I like about Bloomberg is his self-made status and brand as pragmatic problem solver. If elected, he'll govern with pragmatism and develop sound solutions for climate change, economic development and stand up to the gun lobby.

And your points, well:
- According to polls, he's doing well against Trump nationally and battlegrounds. He can build an insurce in the Sun Belt like Florida and Arizona, where Bernie appears to weaker
- The agreements are with his business that employs 25,000 people and is largely recognized as good employer that pays fair wages and has women in senior positions
- I agree, he needs to work on his debate performance.
- He at least had the guts to apologize; also needs to be noted that crime went way down under his watch. He has endorsements from major black officials as well
- Appears to be unknowningly, he apologized and stopped it
- There is no evidence of Bloomberg being corrupt. He hasn't defrauded others, cheated with taxes or paid hush money like Trump. Unlike Trump, he earned his wealth and didn't inherit a nickel.
- He ran as Republican to avoid the Democratic primary, and governed as center-left independent. He was never a true Republican, even though he worked across the aisle to get things done.

Not this capitalist myth

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Sanders is not winning SC. I expect Clyburn will back Biden this week and that will boost him enough to win.

[jaichind]

What is more important than the Biden-Sanders gap assuming Biden wins is the Biden-Steyer gap.  If Biden can get Steyer to be not relevant in ST Southern States he can look forward to a good bloc of delegates on ST.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/23/clyburn-to-endorse-biden-south-carolina-116986

Yeah, Sanders is not winning in SC.

[DrScholl]

I think something to consider here is if Steyer is performs better in polling than in actually contests. He was at 11% in Nevada, but came in well under that and Biden over performed polling. Granted that was a caucus, but if that was an actual trend then Biden could do much better than expected in South Carolina.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I think something to consider here is if Steyer is performs better in polling than in actually contests. He was at 11% in Nevada, but came in well under that and Biden over performed polling. Granted that was a caucus, but if that was an actual trend then Biden could do much better than expected in South Carolina.

Stop it, man.




https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-6866.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/nevada/

[DrScholl]

I think something to consider here is if Steyer is performs better in polling than in actually contests. He was at 11% in Nevada, but came in well under that and Biden over performed polling. Granted that was a caucus, but if that was an actual trend then Biden could do much better than expected in South Carolina.

Stop it, man.




https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-6866.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/nevada/

Is it necessarily to be rude? No. One of the last polls of Nevada had Steyer at 11% and that is that what I was referring to. Of his 9% average in polling he received half of that in the actual voting. My post clearly stated IF that happens, then Biden could benefit.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Steyer met his Nevada polling average in the first alignment, DrScholl. He just got killed in realignment.

[NOVA Green]

Gut says Biden wins SC by a +10% margin over Bernie....

Regardless of lack of early voting in this state, Biden will likely reassure DEM voters regarding his ability to compete on the front stage at the debate....

Steyer will likely take hits on Biden....    "Reparations"

RNA is not the organization it used to be, but this can flip a switch and is a hot button item, especially with many younger Black Voters from the BLM Movement, that are simply caring on a struggle from decades on against racial justice and inequality....

SC DEM debate could be really interesting, especially involving racial and social justice in a heavily Black State (and electorate), regarding how we continue the struggle for the future generations, in what is essentially a debate stage with a bunch of White folks (Some of whom were involved in the Civil Rights Movements of the Past, and the vast majority of whom were not).

Haven't found the link the original ad from the '16 DEM IL PRIM, but open the link and play the first one, and it is a major part of the reason that Bernie virtually tied HRC in IL in '16.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/23/clyburn-to-endorse-biden-south-carolina-116986

Yeah, Sanders is not winning in SC.

That fact that you're saying that you've got to say that within a week of the primary really shows how much he's bungled things to make a Sanders win in SC a mere possibility.


Anyway, it's not like everyone was predicting that (I'd say even most Bernie-Bros would be skeptical). Whether Biden gets a Nevada-like performance ala Sanders here or a pathetic 5% margin is the bigger question

And, of course, does any of Saturday transfer over to Super Tuesday for Biden?

[OneJ]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/23/clyburn-to-endorse-biden-south-carolina-116986

Yeah, Sanders is not winning in SC.

Since when Jim Clyburn's endorsement is automatically going to prevent Sanders from winning the state? If Biden wins the state he was going to win it in the first place without Clyburn. Remember Biden got plenty of high-level endorsements and that didn't stop him from struggling to reach viability.