NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Florida Man for Crime]

To put this in perspective, here is NYT's map. most of Clark's Minority communities are to the right of the diagonal line or just over it in the center of Las Vegas. It's generally Hispanics, but nearly all of Nevada's AAs are in North Las Vegas. The the south and west of the line are the whiter parts - some GOP, some Democratic, some swingy. At least to me, it appears that there is more empty space to the South and west than to the North and East. So Pete's Clark share will likely rise, and Biden's will fall.

It does look like that if you are just looking at geographic area, but... not sure that holds up if you take into account population density and in particular the more precise areas where AA voters are concentrated most heavily.

1) It looks to me like many/most of the core AA precincts in North Las Vegas are still out. Much of what is reported in that area are either the less heavily AA precincts further to the west and geographically large (but more sparsely populated, I think?) precincts in the north).

2) It looks like most of the heavily white parts of Henderson and a lot around Summerlin has reported - that area should be good for Pete and Klobuchar. You can even see a few Klobuchar precincts in both of those 2 areas.

[atheist4thecause]

I'm surprised Chris Matthews doesn't like Sanders.

Sanders is coming down to earth. Under 35% in the first round and at 42% in the final round now. So much for the "60%".

Yeah, lets keep in mind that Reno and Las Vegas came in first. The rural areas are coming in last. Sanders tends to get his best support in the big cities.

70% of the vote is in Clark County. If you're waiting for the nuclear wasteland of rural Nevada to push Biden over the top, you shouldn't hold your breath.

I'm not a Biden supporter. I'm a Klobuchar supporter. Sanders is going to obviously win, but by how much? Rural areas can bring the margin down potentially. Remember, this is a race about delegates.

When you think of "rural areas," you probably are thinking of rural Wisconsin, which I'm sure has a fair number of farms and small towns that can potentially tip an election in either direction. However, this is Nevada we're talking about. Urbanization is just fundamentally different in the west than it is in the east. Urban clusters are much more defined and rural areas are extremely sparsely populated. There are some ranches in rural Nevada, but no widespread farming and only very small towns.

This is Esmeralda County, Nevada.



It has the second-lowest population density of any US county in the lower 48. There are fewer than 800 people there. Trust me, when it comes to statewide elections, rural Nevada is just about as important as rural California.

I understand that the rural vote is not enough to catch a candidate up. It still matters, though. People were talking about Sanders getting 60% and suddenly he's down to what 35% on the first vote or something like that?

[Mr. Morden]

Revised entrance poll regional breakdown:

Clark (69% of sample):
Sanders 34%
Biden 20%
Buttigieg 14%
Warren 12%
Klobuchar 9%
Steyer 9%

Washoe (21% of sample):
Sanders 34%
Buttigieg 16%
Warren 15%
Biden 13%
Klobuchar 13%
Steyer 7%

rest of state (9% of sample):
Sanders 24%
Buttigieg 22%
Klobuchar 19%
Biden 12%
Warren 12%
Steyer 8%

[Florida Man for Crime]

The only thing giving me pause about being ok with Bernie as the probable nominee is that Olawakandi now supports him, evidently.

Just wait 5 minutes and Olawakandi will support someone else.

[2016]

If Biden wins South Carolina by like 5 points, that would still be a bad result for him and he would not suddenly be on track for the nomination. If Biden gets a double digit win or pretty close to it then a comeback is more plausible but not likely. South Carolina is not the bellwether no matter how much Biden wishes it is.

Biden needs to do the same thing Gingrich did to Romney in SC 2012 after Romney clobbered Newt in NH. Yes, if Bernie is within 5 Points in or at 5 exat that's trouble for Uncle Joe.
Many are questioning if Biden has the Infrastructure in the Super Tuesday States EVEN if he wins SC. He hasn't spend one dime in the March 3rd States.

[Amtrak Joe]

Well y’all, it’s time to put your #BlueNoMatterWho bonafides to the test and commit to the glorious revolution of our comrade and Supreme Leader Bernard Sanders.  

I updated my 2020 prediction for your "glorious revolution." There's no hope for this country it seems, or the world as a whole.

At least we won’t be forced to decide between two racist, perverted, misogynistic, billionaires from New York — thank God.

I guess Bloomberg is such a racist that civil rights activists Bobby Rush, Andrew Young, Geoffrey Canada, and others have openly backed his campaign.

[Oryxslayer]

If Biden wins South Carolina by like 5 points, that would still be a bad result for him and he would not suddenly be on track for the nomination. If Biden gets a double digit win or pretty close to it then a comeback is more plausible but not likely. South Carolina is not the bellwether no matter how much Biden wishes it is.

SC is a bellwether for the AA community, nothing more, nothing less. The big takeaway so far from the primary is that momentum is limited and no universal these days that's to the internet allowing for rapid information distillation. So voters are just off limits of require too much effort to reach depending on your target base and message.

If Biden does well in SC, it will give him clear momentum with the AA community allowing him to push back against Bloomberg in Alabama, Arkansas, Texas, and the rest. The wounded lion would have recovered some of his glory. If he flops or has a weak showing, then older AA voters will begin looking at other AA targeting campaigns like Bloomberg and steyer. Since Klobuchar, Pete, and to a lesser extent Warren have abandoned the state, they will not really suffer a bad effects of an expected loss, other than the obvious 0 next to their names. However, they also have little to gain if Biden flops.

[dax00]

I lived in Vegas for 5 years. I don't need to be explained to which minority groups live where.

[Gass3268]

I lived in Vegas for 5 years. I don't need to be explained to which minority groups live where.

Good for you...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Looks like a lot of Steyer voters are from the heavily black precincts. Steyer wants Bernie to love him but his supporters seem more like the Biden type.. wonder where they'll go since he'll probably drop out in a week or two

2nd choice of Steyer voters if he’s not viable in their precinct:
Sanders 39%
Biden 19%

[Matty]

Fact: no candidate besides bernie can brag about tonight.

it was embarrassing for everyone else. this state was tight for months and months up until a week or so ago.

If you had told biden camp before iowa that they would lose nevada by 20+, they would have melted down.

You didn't see cruz brag about finishing second in nevada.

[Annatar]

Good outcome for Bernie, looks likely it will be Trump vs Sanders now, will be interesting, nationalism vs socialism, classic 20th century matchup

[2016]

If Biden wins South Carolina by like 5 points, that would still be a bad result for him and he would not suddenly be on track for the nomination. If Biden gets a double digit win or pretty close to it then a comeback is more plausible but not likely. South Carolina is not the bellwether no matter how much Biden wishes it is.

SC is a bellwether for the AA community, nothing more, nothing less. The big takeaway so far from the primary is that momentum is limited and no universal these days that's to the internet allowing for rapid information distillation. So voters are just off limits of require too much effort to reach depending on your target base and message.

If Biden does well in SC, it will give him clear momentum with the AA community allowing him to push back against Bloomberg in Alabama, Arkansas, Texas, and the rest. The wounded lion would have recovered some of his glory. If he flops or has a weak showing, then older AA voters will begin looking at other AA targeting campaigns like Bloomberg and steyer. Since Klobuchar, Pete, and to a lesser extent Warren have abandoned the state, they will not really suffer a bad effects of an expected loss, other than the obvious 0 next to their names. However, they also have little to gain if Biden flops.

But you can't win States like Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina & Texas with no Organization at all and No Money! Relying only on State Party Officials & Endorsers, Surrogates to get the Vote out is a really, really bad idea by the Biden Camp.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Well y’all, it’s time to put your #BlueNoMatterWho bonafides to the test and commit to the glorious revolution of our comrade and Supreme Leader Bernard Sanders.  

I updated my 2020 prediction for your "glorious revolution." There's no hope for this country it seems, or the world as a whole.

At least we won’t be forced to decide between two racist, perverted, misogynistic, billionaires from New York — thank God.

I guess Bloomberg is such a racist that civil rights activists Bobby Rush, Andrew Young, Geoffrey Canada, and others have openly backed his campaign.

Get out of here that a petty grifter, the Mayor of Atlanta for 6 years in the 90’s and a man who has worked for Bloomberg in the past mean f—k all when it comes to his gross civil rights and racial history.

Yes, even black men can be bought. Even when they’re literal social and political nobodies of relevance to the civil rights movement of the 21st century. Lmao.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

AP accidentally gave Warren 206k votes in the first round. Oof.

[Gass3268]

So... Are we getting any more votes tonight?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

So far, it seems like fantastic results for Bernie, good/decent for Biden and downright terrible for everyone else.

Klob, Pete and Mike Bloomberg need to drop out and endorse Biden if they want to stop Bernie.

[Horus]

So far, it seems like fantastic results for Bernie, good/decent for Biden and downright terrible for everyone else.

Klob, Pete and Mike Bloomberg need to drop out and endorse Biden if they want to stop Bernie.

Klob will definitely be out after Super Tuesday but the other two have the ego (and in Bloomberg's case the cash as well) to stick it out way, way longer than they should.

Oh well, just makes things even easier for Bernie.

[Mr. Morden]

I guess we got another vote dump recently?  County delegates now say 42% of precincts reporting.

[Florida Man for Crime]

So... Are we getting any more votes tonight?

More just came in, up to 41% reported

[Crumpets]

NYT has results from the Area 51 precinct...

Warren with 100% (1 vote)

I want to believe!

[Storr]

So... Are we getting any more votes tonight?

NYT just updated to 43%, 905 precincts in.
final round votes:
Sanders
40.3%

Biden
19.9%

Buttigieg
18.1%

Warren
11.0%

Klobuchar
6.7%

Steyer
3.5%

[Gass3268]

NYT has results from the Area 51 precinct...

Warren with 100% (1 vote)

I want to believe!

Aliens and UFO's for Warren!

[NOVA Green]

NYT:

Latest dump (607/1257 Precincts)

Clark County:

Delegates

Sanders--- 48.3%
Biden---    23.7%
Pete---      13.5%
Warren--     8.9%

[Oryxslayer]

NYT:

Latest dump (607/1257 Precincts)

Clark County:

Delegates

Sanders--- 48.3%
Biden---    23.7%
Pete---      13.5%
Warren--     8.9%

Washoe it appears has also decided to join the party.