NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Walmart_shopper]

Why are Latinos so pro-Bernie? Does anyone have a serious answer besides tHeY aRe DiSpRoPoRtIoNaTeLy YoUnG? That's not enough to explain these numbers. This is like Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton with the Black vote.

Because Latinos have a deeply communitarian political ethos, resonate with Bernie's systemic complaints, and are not socially liberal and perceive Bernie to be, like AMLO, an economic fighter and not a culture warrior.

[Gass3268]

Biden's getting killed outside of Clark County.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1231334451969327105?s=21

[We Live in Black and White]

Twitter is just an endless stream of Bernie winning different precincts, so I am going to stop posting them, there are just too many, I can't keep up.

ARE YOU TIRED OF ALL THE WINNING?

[Adam Griffin]

Why are Latinos so pro-Bernie? Does anyone have a serious answer besides tHeY aRe DiSpRoPoRtIoNaTeLy YoUnG? That's not enough to explain these numbers. This is like Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton with the Black vote.

At least if we want to compare to the historical minority core of the Democratic Party (black voters):

Like black voters, they have a tendency to defer to candidates who are establishment and/or who have high name-recognition.

Unlike black voters, many have grown up in immigrant households with parents and grandparents who come from highly class-conscious societies.

But the age thing really is most of it this time. Even in 2016, a significant chunk of current Latino primary voters weren't participating. Trump (in the 2016 general and then in 2018) really mobilized a large number of new Latino voters. My county is one-third Latino and had twice the raw Latino turnout in 2016 compared to 2012, and more than twice that in 2018 compared to 2014 (after adjusting for the higher overall turnout). I wouldn't be surprised if there are twice as many Latinos ages 18-35 voting in this year's national primary compared to 4 years ago.

[Gracile]

Give me a single reason warren should stay in race

She's doing better than a lot of other candidates who are still in the race.

She's invested a lot in Super Tuesday states and many of us want to vote for her.

Warren is not doing better than "a lot of candidates" - her support is pretty middling at this point (maybe even worse than expected since she underperformed Buttigieg in IA/NH and Klobuchar in NH).

[Bidenworth2020]

Twitter is just an endless stream of Bernie winning different precincts, so I am going to stop posting them, there are just too many, I can't keep up.

I might just stop watching results. Bernie is going to win in a landslide and no one seems to be seriously challenging Biden for second.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/PhilipinDC/status/1231326093493166080?s=20

That just about sums up everything you need to know about Buttigieg and Steyer supporters.

https://www.bernieorelse.com/

[Oryxslayer]

Twitter is just an endless stream of Bernie winning different precincts, so I am going to stop posting them, there are just too many, I can't keep up.

I mean if you are winning 15%, you should be winning almost everything. The bigger question is who is below Bernie in said precincts, and by how much. For example,  I doubt Biden maintains his lead right now when at 1%, the returns are dominated by AA North Las Vegas for instance.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It seems like the AtlasIntel and Data for Progress polls are going to end up being the most accurate.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Give me a single reason warren should stay in race

CoMproMise CanDIdate!  >>>

NATE SILVER

It’s not clear to me how eager Warren would be to stay in the race if her chances of winning seem remote. Candidates differ a lot on what they do in that circumstance. The calculation could be more complicated this year because of the possibility of a contested convention.

LAURA BRONNER

The other thing about Warren is that if it looks like a contested convention might be on the horizon, she might try to stick around as a consensus candidate. Back in October, Julia and I found that a large share of other candidates’ supporters were also considering Warren. But that was at the high point of her support; now, while Morning Consult, for instance, has her as the top second choice for Sanders supporters, she’s not quite as popular with other candidates’ supporters.

[Holmes]

So if Bernie's numbers hold up with Latinos, does this say anything about how he may fare in Arizona's primaries? I don't believe we've seen very much polling done there.  

I’d say Sanders is the favorite in Arizona at this time, tbh. And Texas is probably looking really good for him too.

He may not be as DOA in Florida as some polls show..... but he might still lose the state though.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/jeremychenktnv/status/1231335641213857793?s=21

[Beet]

Give me a single reason warren should stay in race

She's doing better than a lot of other candidates who are still in the race.

She's invested a lot in Super Tuesday states and many of us want to vote for her.

Warren is not doing better than "a lot of candidates" - her support is pretty middling at this point (maybe even worse than expected since she underperformed Buttigieg in IA/NH and Klobuchar in NH).

She is beating Pete and Amy today, and beat Amy in Iowa. So she is up 2-1 on Amy, and down 1-2 on Pete. Fine. But she's also outraised both of them by a significant margin. So I don't see why she should drop out if both of them are still in it. Also Steyer is still in who she beat in IA and NH, and Bloomberg who she has done better in 3-0. Finally, she's up 2-1 on Biden.

[gottsu]

Well I think if there's one important thing that we all bear in mind with these results, it's that it's pronounced "NE-VAD-UH" and not "NE-VAH-DUH". 

Got yelled at by a girl in my undergrad sorority for getting it wrong

As an Austrian, I pronounce it "Näh-wuh-duh".

I speak Spanish and pronounce it "Ne-va-da".

You know. Like God intended.

To a Pole it's just "Ne-wa-da".

[atheist4thecause]

https://twitter.com/makeroadactNV/status/1231326904214413312?s=20

The only way Bernie's Hispanic support will hurt him in the genersl is if insufferably conscientous white people keep refering to Sanders voters as "Latinx."

This from the guy who says not to race bait. Where are you now Penn_Quaker_Girl?

[YE]

https://twitter.com/AdamCohen538/status/1231312032068251648?s=20

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

And they preferred Clinton's in '16?

You have to first pass name recognition thresholds and have time to campaign (which was part of Bernie's problem in 2016), but Bernie did win Hispanics in NV in 2016, and he did do much better with Hispanics nationwide than Black voters and pretty similar to how he did with whites in other states also.

[Baki]

This is very slow and boring.

When can we expect to see some results on the map?

[We Live in Black and White]

It seems like the AtlasIntel and Data for Progress polls are going to end up being the most accurate.

And even they massively undershot. This is madness.

[Gass3268]

Before anyone complains why the networks haven't called anything yet, they are using the data they get from the NV Democratic Party and they so far are reporting 0%.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

This is very slow and boring.

When can we expect to see some results on the map?

Probably not for a bit.  We're getting a decent flood of results in, but it might take a while to sort out what belongs where and put everything together.  

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

People talk about suburban voters in Maricopa, but goddamn Bernie might just turbocharge nonvoting Hispanics, if going by these results, in a GE.

Hillary crushed him with Hispanics in 2016 and that didnt translate much to the GE.

I think you're thinking of 2008, not 2016.

[W]

I could see Bernie carrying every county besides maybe Lincoln at this point.

[win win]

Why are Latinos so pro-Bernie? Does anyone have a serious answer besides tHeY aRe DiSpRoPoRtIoNaTeLy YoUnG? That's not enough to explain these numbers. This is like Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton with the Black vote.

The minimum wage vote.