VA-Monmouth: Sanders and Bloomberg tied at 22

[Skye]

Sanders 22
Bloomberg 22
Biden 18
Buttigieg 11
Klobuchar 9
Warren 5
Gabbard 1

Heads-to-heads

Biden 51
Sanders 38

Sanders 44
Buttigieg 42

Sanders 45
Klobuchar 42

Bloomberg 47
Sanders 41

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_VA_021820/

[ElectionsGuy]

Demographically, this is one of Sanders' worst states, so him being tied in polling is pretty excellent for him. Don't expect him to win it though.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Great poll for Mike. And mostly good for Sanders I suppose (because moderates splitt the vote)?

[The Ex-Factor]

Terrible number for Warren, I would have expected her to be one of her better states (I say this as a Warren supporter).

[OneJ]

White:
25 Bloomberg
23 Sanders
14 Klobuchar
11 Buttigieg
10 Biden

Black:
37 Biden
18 Bloomberg
18 Sanders
10 Buttigieg (!)

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

So if the moderates aren’t netting delegates in Virginia... where are they going be, exactly?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Va is supposed to be unwinnable for Bernie, no it isnt

[Pollster]

Black:
37 Biden
18 Bloomberg
18 Sanders
10 Buttigieg (!)

Black subsample is slightly larger than 100, almost a 9% margin of error.

[Eraserhead]

Monmouth seems to constantly overstate Biden's support, so yikes for him.

[SN2903]

Monmouth seems to constantly overstate Biden's support, so yikes for him.

Every poll is overestimating Biden's support right now.

[DrScholl]

That's worse than the 35% Sanders got in 2016. This is clearly a delegate game and Bloomberg appears to be set to net quite a few delegates on Super Tuesday.

[Eraserhead]

That's worse than the 35% Sanders got in 2016. This is clearly a delegate game and Bloomberg appears to be set to net quite a few delegates on Super Tuesday.

You mean he's lower than the 35% he got running against one person? Shocking.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So if the moderates aren’t netting delegates in Virginia... where are they going be, exactly?

Yeah, that is the real question. Super Tuesday is looking like it will be very good for Bernie in delegates, if he is even tied in VA, which ought to be one of his worst states.

Bernie should do worse in Alabama, of course, but that doesn't have many delegates. Of the states with reasonably large population/delegates, VA ought to be pretty much the worst for Bernie. And yet he is tied.

[DrScholl]

That's worse than the 35% Sanders got in 2016. This is clearly a delegate game and Bloomberg appears to be set to net quite a few delegates on Super Tuesday.

You mean he's lower than the 35% he got running against one person? Shocking.

He has been hyped up as being this superhero that was supposed to do better than 2016 yet he has lost some of his support. My point is that a lot of his 2016 was more anti-Clinton than pro-Sanders.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

When Biden and Warren drop, their support is going to flow to Bloomberg and Klob/Pete in VA, respectively.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Monmouth seems to constantly overstate Biden's support, so yikes for him.

Every poll is overestimating Biden's support right now.

how ?

[Bumaye]

When Biden and Warren drop, their support is going to flow to Bloomberg and Klob/Pete in VA, respectively.

You saw that Bernie is winning in head to head matchups against Pete and Klob, right? And even if they would win by ten it wouldn't change a thing with Bernie winning Texas and California.

[NOVA Green]

These are naturally decent numbers for Sanders being tied in VA, and for whatever reason folks seem to forget about an extremely large Asian-American, and Latino-American population within NOVA...

VA will likely be relatively close in the '20 DEM PRIM, and Bernie is doing much better among the Black, Brown, and Asian Minority voters than he did in '16.

Sure White Wealthy folks do their own thang.... Bernie will not rack up margins in the rural White Communities like he did in '16....

Coalitions shift, Coalitions change.... nobody is a hater on either sides of the Democratic Civil War.

Still, the future is coming and many 45+ are worrying, and although they are a fearin' that Trump might be able to close the deal, they are still listening to the Siren songs of their Children and Grandchildren knowin' that a New Earth and a New Future is singing upon the waves....

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

When Biden and Warren drop, their support is going to flow to Bloomberg and Klob/Pete in VA, respectively.

You saw that Bernie is winning in head to head matchups against Pete and Klob, right? And even if they would win by ten it wouldn't change a thing with Bernie winning Texas and California.

It's Virginia. He'd lose the state in any head to head matchup.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

This poll shows a bipolar electoral among whites, with Bernie and Bloomberg in the lead with a quarter of the vote each.  Among blacks, Biden is still ahead with 37% of the vote, Sanders and Bloomberg distantly tied for 2nd at 18%.

[Xing]

Imagine how the “BeRnIe MiGhT lOsE vA tO tRuMp” crowd would react to Sanders winning the primary in VA.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Imagine how the “BeRnIe MiGhT lOsE vA tO tRuMp” crowd would react to Sanders winning the primary in VA.

   

[Faith257]

These are naturally decent numbers for Sanders being tied in VA, and for whatever reason folks seem to forget about an extremely large Asian-American, and Latino-American population within NOVA...

VA will likely be relatively close in the '20 DEM PRIM, and Bernie is doing much better among the Black, Brown, and Asian Minority voters than he did in '16.

Sure White Wealthy folks do their own thang.... Bernie will not rack up margins in the rural White Communities like he did in '16....

Coalitions shift, Coalitions change.... nobody is a hater on either sides of the Democratic Civil War.

Still, the future is coming and many 45+ are worrying, and although they are a fearin' that Trump might be able to close the deal, they are still listening to the Siren songs of their Children and Grandchildren knowin' that a New Earth and a New Future is singing upon the waves....

I agree with you first point about NOVA as it’s extremely diverse in terms of ethnicity and income.  Rural VA has a lot of college towns in the mix so I’m not sure.  Virginia Tech, UVA, James Madison etc.

A geographic cross tab would be helpful.  I’ve lived all over VA as it is my home state yet I moved away Each area is like a different world.  It’s an interesting state.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

These are naturally decent numbers for Sanders being tied in VA, and for whatever reason folks seem to forget about an extremely large Asian-American, and Latino-American population within NOVA...

VA will likely be relatively close in the '20 DEM PRIM, and Bernie is doing much better among the Black, Brown, and Asian Minority voters than he did in '16.

Sure White Wealthy folks do their own thang.... Bernie will not rack up margins in the rural White Communities like he did in '16....

Coalitions shift, Coalitions change.... nobody is a hater on either sides of the Democratic Civil War.

Still, the future is coming and many 45+ are worrying, and although they are a fearin' that Trump might be able to close the deal, they are still listening to the Siren songs of their Children and Grandchildren knowin' that a New Earth and a New Future is singing upon the waves....

I agree with you first point about NOVA as it’s extremely diverse in terms of ethnicity and income.  Rural VA has a lot of college towns in the mix so I’m not sure.  Virginia Tech, UVA, James Madison etc.

A geographic cross tab would be helpful.  I’ve lived all over VA as it is my home state yet I moved away Each area is like a different world.  It’s an interesting state.

There is a geographic breakdown, but into 3 very broad areas ("East" includes Hampton Roads, Richmond, & varied rural areas):

JB    BS    EW  PB  AK   MB    TG  O   U
15% 21% 9% 7% 12% 26% 0% 1% 9%      NoVa CD8\10\11
19% 25% 2% 14% 7% 21% 2% 0% 11%    East CD1\2\3\4\7
22% 19% 5% 9% 10% 19% 1% 0% 16%    West CD5\6\9


btw Steyer's on the ballot, right?   Why wasn't he included in the poll?

[MT Treasurer]

Imagine how the “BeRnIe MiGhT lOsE vA tO tRuMp” crowd would react to Sanders winning the primary in VA.

After he wins VA in the primary: "He won every county in WV in 2016 too, I guess that means he can WV as well, right?!?!"

After he wins VA by 9 points in November: "lItErAlLy No OnE eVeR sAiD tHaT bErNiE wOulD lOsE vIrGiNiA, tHaT's A dUmB sTrAw MaN"