New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[DrScholl]

With center left candidates getting so many votes it is clear that if Sanders gets the nomination that he cannot ignore moderate voters. The path to victory is real progressives (not Joe Rogan types incorrectly labeled as progressive), traditional
Democrats and moderate suburbanites.

[BP🌹]

Let me get this straight... Democrats only care about beating blumpf, and don't care for Bernie because they think that he's unelectable... and their answer to that is Pete Buttigieg?

You better believe it. Sorry, your socialist will be denied a nomination for the second time. Cry more.

Trump would clobber Mayor Cheat.

No he wouldn't. You just like Bernie and will say anything to bring down Pete.

You've repeatedly claimed that Gen Z is actually conservative, so I think you've discredited yourself when it comes to discussing the American electorate.

[Vern]

Even if Buttigieg does somehow come back and win (not looking likely), how is he going to win the nomination with 0% of black voters and with Sanders dominating among Latinos?

How about we let a state that has black voters in them vote before we say he has 0% of their votes.

Or a state which has Hispanic voters in them before we can say with absolute certainty that Sanders is dominating among Latinos (I’m not saying it’s not true, but still...).

Right. We know nothing outside this: Sanders and Biden and Warren has under perform in both Iowa and NH.

[Dr. Arch]

The trend is favoring Buttigieg. How is he doing this!?

[Oryxslayer]

Bernies now at a 2.3% 4.4K lead.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Sanders probably wins, but barely winning NH should probably be regarded as an underperformance for him and certainly casts doubt on any argument he is the national favorite.

It is an open primary in a fairly suburban state with no income tax or sales tax lol.

If it were 2016 when Bernie was getting very little support from non-whites, this would be a much better point.

[Horsemask]

Amy Dean

AND THEN WE'RE GOING TO DC TO TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE............

BYAAAAAARGGGHHHHH!!!!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

FYI, the final RCP average for New Hampshire had it at Sanders +7.4, so he's underperforming by quite a bit.

[musicblind]

Amy Klobuchar is such a good speaker.

[Green Line]

The Atlas meme that Buttijudge can't win black voters is so over done and played up by Bernie Bros.  The fact is that up to now NOBODY has been credible with blacks other than Biden.  If he really starts to disintegrate, its laughable to think that they're all going to go straight over to Bernie, who doesn't understand them at all.

[NOVA Green]

Let me get this straight... Democrats only care about beating blumpf, and don't care for Bernie because they think that he's unelectable... and their answer to that is Pete Buttigieg?

Much more complicated when it comes to NH....

I suspect that part of his '16 landslide had more to do with the compare/contrast with HRC on Iraq, proposing bold positions such as $15/Hr Min Wage, Universal Health Care, etc.... PLUS Bernie played well in places where the economy had not improved after the Bush Sr Recession.

Fast fwd to '20, pretty much all of the major DEM Primary Candidates essentially support at least in style if not substance many of the key Bernie proposals and contrasts with HRC in '16.

We have a major split among Millennial voters reviewing our early results from IA and NH, with Warren doing well among the Educated Female College crowd in IA, Klob/Warren doing well in some of the wealthier 'burbs of the largest Metro area.

NH--- Looks like Pete has a decent base overall in most demographics throughout the state, including performing better than Klob in many rural and WWC communities, while simultaneously doing well in some of the posh districts, where my Irish grandmother might have not been allowed to rent a room in a house way back in the '30s....

Interesting thing about NH, is that it's really kinda the first test of the "White" NE Ethnic non-WASP voters....

As I posted early on in the thread French/French-Canadian, Irish, & Italian ancestry are huge, as is a remarkable 5% population of Polish Ancestry in SE Counties....

Maybe this isn't a thing anymore, but I suspect that campaign messaging for various campaigns and local folks on the ground are all than more aware of this....

[ajc0918]

Are there enough votes outstanding for pete to win?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Kamala Harris currently has 14 votes in NH. I still believe she would be the best nominee and president our party could offer up this year, and I hope someday I can say President Harris.

Where are you getting results for Harris?

NYT

[The Free North]

Raw vote margin steady but lead is down to 2% with 65% on DD

[Tender Branson]

68%:

25.9% Bernie
23.7% Pete
20.3% Amy

Bernie +2.2%

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

With center left candidates getting so many votes it is clear that if Sanders gets the nomination that he cannot ignore moderate voters. The path to victory is real progressives (not Joe Rogan types incorrectly labeled as progressive), traditional
Democrats and moderate suburbanites.

lol what are you gonna do, vote Trump?

[Oryxslayer]

The trend is favoring Buttigieg. How is he doing this!?

The places that closed at 8 were the suburbs in Rockingham. Bernie was never going to do well there. They just came in slower because they closed later.

[Pericles]

It's getting pretty close, we may be heading for a photo finish.

[Reaganfan]

A few Reaganfan hot takes.

#1. I'm stunned that Biden is doing as poorly as he is. He was a popular Vice President for eight of the last 12 years. He also has near 100% name recognition.

#2. The ultimate terrifying candidate for Trump to run against is sexy Wonder-Woman Tulsi Gabbard who is barely registering.

#3. Buttigieg is actually kinda short and twerpy, I'm quite surprised at his recent surge.

[SN2903]

Bernie only up 2.2% 67% in

[Xing]

Even if Buttigieg does somehow come back and win (not looking likely), how is he going to win the nomination with 0% of black voters and with Sanders dominating among Latinos?

How about we let a state that has black voters in them vote before we say he has 0% of their votes.

Somehow, I doubt Buttigieg is actually dominating among black voters if he’s polling that badly.

[Dr. Arch]

The trend is favoring Buttigieg. How is he doing this!?

The places that closed at 8 were the suburbs in Rockingham. Bernie was never going to do well there. They just came in slower because they closed later.

"This" as in performing so well state after state.

[cvparty]

if buttigieg somehow manages to win with amy getting 20% of the vote i'll be shocked

[Gass3268]

Bernies now at a 2.3% 4.4K lead.

A lot of well populated highly educated suburban places left to vote too.

[indietraveler]

Is there enough vote left for Pete to squeak this out realistically? I'm not familiar enough with NH.