New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Turnout projection update:

320.000 (D)

This beats the 2008 turnout by a mile.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm ...

The area around Nashua in the South seems to be pro-Pete and very populated.

https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/newhampshire/admin/

If he can run up the margin there, it’s not completely over yet.

We’ll have to see. Nothing really in yet from that Nashua area.

What are the results in Hollis, those still have not shown up on the CNN map? If Pete has more than a 10% margin or so there maybe he might have at least a small chance.

Pete +4% over Amy and +12% over Bernie.

29-25-17.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1227399176176181249

[Matty]

Trump only at 84% so far

Which is the highest gop incumbent vote share since before Reagan


Obama got 80.8 in 2012 in Nh

[It’s so Joever]

Let’s not call the race for Sanders early until we get more of the Hillsborough votes in.

[Brittain33]

Turnout projection update:

320.000 (D)

This beats the 2008 turnout by a mile.

It helps to have an uncompetitive Republican race.

[SN2903]

Bernie up 5% 30.3% in

[Horsemask]

Nice to see some results from my birth city of Nashua.

[NOVA Green]

Hmm ...

The area around Nashua in the South seems to be pro-Pete and very populated.

https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/newhampshire/admin/

If he can run up the margin there, it’s not completely over yet.

We’ll have to see. Nothing really in yet from that Nashua area.

What are the results in Hollis, those still have not shown up on the CNN map? If Pete has more than a 10% margin or so there maybe he might have at least a small chance.

ddhq

Pete 650 votes (29%), Klob 558 (25%), Bernie 380 (17%)...

As I mentioned upthread it's a post place with an MHI of $120k+ /Yr so not entirely representative of SE NH....

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Turnout projection update:

320.000 (D)

This beats the 2008 turnout by a mile.

It helps to have an uncompetitive Republican race.

I don't see how that would affect Dem turnout, but ok.

[Tender Branson]

Let’s not call the race for Sanders early until we get more of the Hillsborough votes in.

The problem for Pete there is that Amy does really well there too ...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Sanders's lead is astoundingly stable so far.

[Brittain33]

Turnout projection update:

320.000 (D)

This beats the 2008 turnout by a mile.

It helps to have an uncompetitive Republican race.

I don't see how that would affect Dem turnout, but ok.

Largest pool of voters in NH is independents who can vote in either primary.

[Walmart_shopper]

Nashua ward 3 results on CNN

Bernie wins with 590 votes, didn't get the others before they cut away from it, but it was a clear Bernie lead, 2nd place had like 400.

So similar to Manchester.

How is that even happening? Bernie is doing so poorly among the poorer white working class that was critical to him in 2016 but doing quite well among the super-progressive wealthier electorate. It's bizarre. Iowa was like that, too. Maybe he's just leaning really heavily into the youth vote, but the dynamics are so different this year. His base is far more Warren-esque than we thought, and far less Biden-y.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Looking forward to the Durham vote dump.

Oooh yeah, that will be good. Maybe it will be enough for them to call it.

[Horsemask]

Warren and Biden apparently won't meet the delegate threshold per MSNBC. This should mark the end of Warren's campaign.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

NYT projection of who wins the primary has Pete at 30%, up from 25%, and Bernie at 65%, down from 70%.

[YE]

Sanders's lead is astoundingly stable so far.

Yet his odds are also dropping on the NYT needle.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The NYT Needle has been ticking down from Bernie a bit...currently at about 63% for him, 29% for Pete, 5% for Amy.

[Lourdes]

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1227399176176181249

Where is the biggest section of the Anti-Trump Republican vote (Where is he performing worst)?

[Green Line]

Bernie has totally lost the coalition of voters that supposedly made him strong against Trump, working class/rural whites.  This campaign is turning into Hillary 2016 but with less enthusiasm and infrastructure among the establishment.  Disaster.

[H. Ross Peron]

Nashua ward 3 results on CNN

Bernie wins with 590 votes, didn't get the others before they cut away from it, but it was a clear Bernie lead, 2nd place had like 400.

So similar to Manchester.

How is that even happening? Bernie is doing so poorly among the poorer white working class that was critical to him in 2016 but doing quite well among the super-progressive wealthier electorate. It's bizarre. Iowa was like that, too. Maybe he's just leaning really heavily into the youth vote, but the dynamics are so different this year. His base is far more Warren-esque than we thought, and far less Biden-y.

I'm not so sure about that. He's doing extremely well among the urban vote, but he did poorly in actual wealthy suburbs as we saw in Iowa.

[SN2903]

The NYT Needle has been ticking down from Bernie a bit...currently at about 63% for him, 29% for Pete, 5% for Amy.

Looks like Bernie is going to hang on. Maybe it's only a 3 or 4% win though.

[Zanas]

There is now a similar 5 pt lead between Bernie and Buttigieg for 1st, and Biden and Steyer for 5th...