New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Thus far, all it looks like is that this throws Klobuchar into the conversation much more. Bernie won the state he was supposed to, but not by an impressive margin. Pete didn't get his second win, but wasn't embarrassed either.

This might be the dinner bell for Warren, though. And Biden not far behind.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Wow if Amy really surges and takes the moderate lead I might be swayed to vote for her in a month. A Buttigieg vs Amy choice is something I could really get excited about.

[Vern]

I still think Buttigieg wins NH.

How so ?

Run up his numbers in lower NH. I'm probably wrong, but one can hope.

[Zanas]

Hi there, yeah I'm in this, the more the merrier right?

To be honest I was a little nervous about this but am now confident Bernie has it in the bag, thanks to Klobuchar stealing moderate votes from Buttigieg. Bernie 2020 feels more and more like Trump 2016, he cannot win but the "moderates" cannot be bothered to step down and coalesce around a single name and eventually will lose.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1227390984251637760

[Adam Griffin]

18-29 yrs only 12% in exit poll per MSNBC, 65+ has dropped from 33% to 27%

Let's wait for the final revisions to exit poll data before assuming anything about youth turnout. Just like in IA: initially they had 65+ at 36%...revised down to 34%...to 32%...and finally to 28%. They get a lot of this stuff wrong initially.

[amdcpus]

Going to be very close if Weld meets the threshold for delegate viability, currently at 9.55% and needs 10%

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I just want to say a few words...

We will have to accept that Yang will drop out and that Bernie will win New Hampshire. I know these are not the results we hoped for, the results we fought all this way for but these are the results we were given.

I remember when I first saw Andrew i saw something in him I never saw in another candidate, I saw a smart, fresh faced, unique candidate and I knew I would have to support him. I think Yang ran a great campaign and did something historic that no other candidate had done. If you told me that this guy named Andrew Yang would be a serious candidate last Year I would have told you that you were crazy, but he was more than a serious candidate, he was a front runner a front runner who cared about people and offered new solutions. He is still young and I am confident that one day every though it is not this election i will hear the words “President Andrew Yang”. 🙂

[Tender Branson]

Exit poll:

Sanders 25.9%
Buttigieg 21.7%
Klobuchar 21.1%
Biden 10%
Warren 8.7%

I think he’ll outperform this and will get 23.5% in the end.

Sanders 26.5% and Amy 21.5%

Reporting is pretty stable.

Im going back to sleep and look what has changed in 4 hours ...

Goodnight.

[Florida Man for Crime]

18-29 only went up to 12%. NH's election law is horrendous.

Not that NH election law is not problematic, but this is at least as much a matter of exit polls being trash (no simple random sampling).

[jimrtex]

So, only 3 candidates will get delegates ?

Assuming the 2 CD results are similar to the overall results

It looks like 9:9:6 at this point.

It could go to 10:8:6 is Sanders gets a favorable result in one of the CD's, but they are quite similar.

[Grassroots]

I just want to say a few words...

We will have to accept that Yang will drop out and that Bernie will win New Hampshire. I know these are not the results we hoped for, the results we fought all this way for but these are the results we were given.

I remember when I first saw Andrew i saw something in him I never saw in another candidate, I saw a smart, fresh faced, unique candidate and I knew I would have to support him. I think Yang ran a great campaign and did something historic that no other candidate had done. If you told me that this guy named Andrew Yang would be a serious candidate last Year I would have told you that you were crazy, but he was more than a serious candidate, he was a front runner a front runner who cared about people and offered new solutions. He is still young and I am confident that one day every though it is not this election i will hear the words “President Andrew Yang”. 🙂

Sad, really. I liked him.

[SN2903]

Biden is the Jeb Bush of 2020

[atheist4thecause]

20% in now and Klobuchar has that Buttigieg lead down to 1.8%. She has slowly been nibbling at it.

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1227399172120305664

Yep, that's a college voting for Buttigieg. Bros BTFO

The stereotype that college students are Bernie Bros is horrible.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Bedford results:

Pete 28%
Klobuchar 26%
Bernie 16%


That is the sort of thing that Pete/Klob would need to get CONSISTNENTLY in the south-eastern commuter/suburb towns to have a chance at winning. But they are not getting it consistently, the results in places like Candia and Salem are closer - and moreover neither Klob nor Pete is always the one winning, they are splitting the vote.

[Gass3268]

18-29 only went up to 12%. NH's election law is horrendous.

Not that NH election law is not problematic, but this is at least as much a matter of exit polls being trash (no simple random sampling).

Turnout in Hanover was down ~27%. Only place I've see a decline so far.

[NOVA Green]

Bedford Pete/Amy but Sanders still placed 3rd at 16% with 100% in the posh decent pop 'burb of Manchester that I mentioned back on page 2 or 3 of the thread....

[Tender Branson]

Hmm ...

The area around Nashua in the South seems to be pro-Pete and very populated.

https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/newhampshire/admin/

If he can run up the margin there, it’s not completely over yet.

We’ll have to see. Nothing really in yet from that Nashua area.

[Holmes]

I just want to say a few words...

We will have to accept that Yang will drop out and that Bernie will win New Hampshire. I know these are not the results we hoped for, the results we fought all this way for but these are the results we were given.

I remember when I first saw Andrew i saw something in him I never saw in another candidate, I saw a smart, fresh faced, unique candidate and I knew I would have to support him. I think Yang ran a great campaign and did something historic that no other candidate had done. If you told me that this guy named Andrew Yang would be a serious candidate last Year I would have told you that you were crazy, but he was more than a serious candidate, he was a front runner a front runner who cared about people and offered new solutions. He is still young and I am confident that one day every though it is not this election i will hear the words “President Andrew Yang”. 🙂

k

[Dorko Julio]

Biden is the Jeb Bush of 2020

I was gonna say we should "Please clap" for Biden, but he already left...

[OBD]

Just logged in and holy fork Klobuchar. Also nice to see Warren getting only 9%, though Biden's numbers continue to be alarming.

[ajc0918]

We need to see the suburbs south of Manchester before calling this

[John Dule]

Biden is the Jeb Bush of 2020

While I hesitate to say that he'll get demolished like Jeb! did, the narrative that's starting to percolate does not bode well at all for him. Nobody thought he'd win New Hampshire but if he places fifth and can't even cross into the double digits, I don't know how his supporters continue to make the case that he's the most "electable" candidate. This is really a dismal performance so far for him.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

So Sanders and Buttigieg are both underperforming in what "should" be their heartlands.

Will probably change as more towns come in, but Bernie currently during better in Rockingham than Grafton def seems weird.