New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Horsemask]

Been a while since I've posted, but I've slowly been getting back into the swing of things. The events of the last few years have taken a lot out of me. Looking forward to voting in Maine's primary in March. Too bad I wasn't able to go to any events in NH this cycle.

[We Live in Black and White]

He has an "enemies list" on his website where he proudly lists all the people who have criticized him.

I am sure you are very upset not to have made it on to the list.

If you really believe what you are saying though, then you had better prepare yourself for being sent away for re-education. Or, if you want to avoid that, change your tune before it is too late. Save yourself!

It's not an issue of believing or not believing.  It's right here.  https://berniesanders.com/anti-endorsements/

I looked on a whim to see if the term "enemies" was used anywhere in the page, and all the images of these people are named "enemy 12" etc.

Paranoia and obsession are mental illnesses, you know. Seek professional help.

[Canis]

Been a while since I've posted, but I've slowly been getting back into the swing of things. The events of the last few years have taken a lot out of me. Looking forward to voting in Maine's primary in March. Too bad I wasn't able to go to any events in NH this cycle.

missed ya bud any candidate your leaning towards?

[NOVA Green]

So on Page 2, I posted a little bit about the two largest cities in Hillsborough County (Nashua & Manchester)...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=358035.msg7169871#msg7169871

Here are next three largest DEM Vote centers in Hillsborough County.

#3: Merrimack Town--- (1.6% of NH 2016 DEM PRIM Vote Share and 7.4 % of '16 DEM Primary County Vote Share)----   

4k Votes--- 57-42 Sanders-Clinton   +15% Sanders

MHI= $93.8k/Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 93% White, 3% Latino, 2% Asian

Age: skews a bit older: Almost 50% of the population is aged 35-64, which is quite a bit higher than the statewide average.

Ancestry: 24% French / French-Canadian, 23% Irish, 11% Italian, 5% Polish

Education: Much more educated than the NH as a whole 54% with > HS Degree

Occupations: Skew heavily White Collar (Computers & Math 8% (!), Mgmt 12%, Business 7%,

Industry: Mfg & Retail are about State average, Health Care is significantly below, Professional Occupations/ Finance / Education above Statewide avg...

Interestingly enough Bernie had a higher level of support in 2016 than in Manchester or Nashua, despite having a significantly higher income level and educational level, which typically tended to correlate more with HRC in NH in '16.

My gut tells me this is exactly the type of place where Warren needs to deal well, and Pete is likely a contender as well.

#4: Hudson Town (1.4% of 2016 NH DEM PRIM Vote & 6.6% of 2016 DEM PRIM County Vote Share).

3.5k Votes---- (55-41 Sanders-Clinton)    +14% Sanders

MHI-  $88.9k/Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 93% White, 3% Latino, 3% Asian

Age: Tends to skew a bit older with the bulge being 35-55 Yrs, 55-64 Yrs below State avg, 65+ slightly above state avg.

Ancestry: 29% French / French-Canadian, 21% Irish, 12% Italian, 4% Polish

Education: 46% > HS Diploma (So slightly above Statewide avg).

Occupations: Administrative, Sales, Education above Statewide avg and mgmt slightly below along with mfg.

Industry: MFG is above statewide at 15%, Health Care avg, Retail slightly below, Education a tick above.

Overall, I have a similar assessment of Hudson Town as I do of Merrimack Town.

#5  Bedford Town: (1.4% of 2016 NH DEM PRIM Vote & 6.3% of 2016 DEM PRIM County Vote Share).

3.4k Votes   (49% Sanders -50% Clinton)    +1% Clinton

MHI: $126k/Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 93% White, 3% Asian, 2% Latino, 1% Black

Age: The Demographic bulge is towards the 40-64 Yrs Range compared to Statewide.

Ancestry: 22% Irish, 20% French / French-Canadian, 12% Italian, 5% Polish

Education: 68% Degree > HS

Occupations: 20% Mgmt (!!!), 16% Sales, 8% Health Care, 7% Business.... These are all well above statewide averages.

Industries: Professional and Education way above statewide avg, finance & insurace 2x statewide avg (!!!), MFG and Retail significantly below statewide avg....

So basically is high income suburb of Manchester, which did not vote for Bernie (the only place to do so in Hillsborough County in the 2016 DEM PRIM), certainly does not appear to be Bernie ground in the 2020 DEM PRIM. I guess the key question is how it breaks down in terms of Warren/Pete voters, but regardless I would imagine that Bernie is going to get clocked here on Tuesday....

Okay--- so now I've run the 2016 DEM PRIM numbers for the (5) largest DEM Jurisdictions within Hillsborough County which collectively account for 18% of the TOTAL NH DEM PRIM Vote Share in 2016 and 68% of the Hillsborough County Vote Share in 2016.

It is entirely possible these numbers will be larger in 2020, depending upon how many REG IND want to stick it to Trump (Where some polls have him winning only 80% of PUB PRIM voters) vs crossing lanes.

My initial thoughts upon review:

1.) Manchester City--- Biden/Bernie both perform well with Pete grabbing a decent chunk of change and Warren nipping at 4th...   (Likely not coincidental that Biden was in Town today).

2.) Nashua--- Looks to me like Pete will place in top, Warren 2nd, and Bernie & Biden fighting for 3rd. (Likely not coincidental that Pete was in Town today).

3.) Merrimack--- Pete & Liz should do well, with Bernie possibly placing 3rd.

4.) Hudson--- Thinking that Pete & Liz should do well, with Bernie possibly doing slightly better than in Merrimack.

5.) Bedford---- This has Pete Country written all over it. Warren again should place well. Would not be completely shocked to see Bernie place 4th.

Thoughts anyone???

[weixiaobao]

My prediction: 1) Sanders 2) Buttigieg 3) Warren 4) Klobuchar 5) Biden.

And that would make Nevada and South Carolina very interesting.

[NOVA Green]

So... I could go through the rest of Hillsborough County, but let's just briefly run some basic numbers for the Eastern portion of the County where HRC performed well in '16:

Listed by TOTAL 2016 DEM PRIM Voters:

1.) Goffs Town-  3.0k Voters (+21% Sanders)
2.) Amherst- 2.4k Voters (+6% Sanders)
3.) Pelham-  1.9k Voters  (+15% Sanders)
4.) Hollis---  1.6k Voters  (+8% Sanders)
5.) Litchfield- 1,4k Voters (+19% Sanders)

So clearly there are certainly opportunities in places that are somewhat similar to the top five places within Hillsborough, and an additional 10.3k voters in 2016 (4.2% of '16 DEM PRIM Vote Share and    19% of County Vote Share).

Now what about the "Bernie Belt" in the Western portion of Hillsborough County where he was clocking from 61-72% of the '16 DEM PRIM vote???

Although theoretically these townships are small in terms of individual vote share collectively they add up to 12% of the County Vote Share....

Although Pete was camping in Iowa, and did much better than expected in some of the rurals, it was really his performance in metro Des Moines, combined with a relatively decent statewide spread which jacked his numbers up...

Key question for the NH Primaries, will be can Pete not only perform well in some of posh 'burbs of NH, but additionally do something similar in the rurals which he did in IA?

My assumption has been that Biden would be a dude more likely to play in these parts of NH in '16 Bernie Country, Warren not so much, and Pete might be able to take a handful...

Thoughts anybody???

 

[Matty]

will there be exit polls for NH?

[SInNYC]

Although Pete was camping in Iowa, and did much better than expected in some of the rurals, it was really his performance in metro Des Moines, combined with a relatively decent statewide spread which jacked his numbers up...

Key question for the NH Primaries, will be can Pete not only perform well in some of posh 'burbs of NH, but additionally do something similar in the rurals which he did in IA?

This is a great observation. The predominant media narrative is to lump in urban and suburban, probably because most media people live/work in urban and suburban areas. However, Buttigieg and Bernie essentially tied in rural areas of IA while Pete outperformed Bernie significantly in suburbs and especially exurbs. Bernie's strength was smaller cities. I expect this pattern to hold everywhere outside the south.

This would seem to imply that Buttigieg can make a killing in the Boston exurbs of southeastern NH. However, I think it really comes down to whether Kobluchar can do OK since she is strong in the same areas. I'm unsure of Warren who might also be strong there, since its not clear who she will be drawing from there.

[Horsemask]

Been a while since I've posted, but I've slowly been getting back into the swing of things. The events of the last few years have taken a lot out of me. Looking forward to voting in Maine's primary in March. Too bad I wasn't able to go to any events in NH this cycle.

missed ya bud any candidate your leaning towards?

Thanks! Not committed to any one candidate, though I see myself voting for Sanders. I will certainly vote for the nominee.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

will there be exit polls for NH?

Yes.

[Sbane]

I think only a shock win by Pete of more than 10 points could convince me he can overcome his AA problems.

[Skill and Chance]

I think New Hampshire is gonna be another photo finish between Sanders and Buttigieg, I am going on a limb and predict Klobuchar comes 4th to Biden's 5th because she's rising at the right moment.

Would be wild if Klobuchar got 2nd.

[Oryxslayer]

Although Pete was camping in Iowa, and did much better than expected in some of the rurals, it was really his performance in metro Des Moines, combined with a relatively decent statewide spread which jacked his numbers up...

Key question for the NH Primaries, will be can Pete not only perform well in some of posh 'burbs of NH, but additionally do something similar in the rurals which he did in IA?

This is a great observation. The predominant media narrative is to lump in urban and suburban, probably because most media people live/work in urban and suburban areas. However, Buttigieg and Bernie essentially tied in rural areas of IA while Pete outperformed Bernie significantly in suburbs and especially exurbs. Bernie's strength was smaller cities. I expect this pattern to hold everywhere outside the south.

This would seem to imply that Buttigieg can make a killing in the Boston exurbs of southeastern NH. However, I think it really comes down to whether Kobluchar can do OK since she is strong in the same areas. I'm unsure of Warren who might also be strong there, since its not clear who she will be drawing from there.

Lets also throw an additional divide in the types of rural areas onto the pile. While there were some areas where Pete and Bernie's rural support overlapped, there were other where it did not. If we apply this from Iowa to NH, we may see a Divergence between the White Mountains rurals, the Connecticut River rurals, and the mid-state rurals.

[Horsemask]

Been a while since I've posted, but I've slowly been getting back into the swing of things. The events of the last few years have taken a lot out of me. Looking forward to voting in Maine's primary in March. Too bad I wasn't able to go to any events in NH this cycle.

Glad you’re back! I take it that you didn’t move to NH?

Good decision

Good to see you again! I lived in NH during the 2016 election but am back in Maine for good. Got married last year, and my wife and I are living in her hometown -- the next town over from my own hometown. We both are lucky to work locally as well.

[KaiserDave]

Planning on doing 100 give or take 10 calls for Bennet tomorrow

[Oryxslayer]

I think only a shock win by Pete of more than 10 points could convince me he can overcome his AA problems.

If somehow Pete  goes on to win this thing it will be in spite of rather than because he overcame his problems with non-suburban African Americans. Biden or Steyer or Bloomberg will carry the communities delegates, they will endorse Pete (in this hypothetical) going into the divided convention making him the de facto nominee even though he will lose the formal first vote, and Pete will pick Keisha Bottoms or Lori Lightfoot as his VP to make amends with the community. This is all hypothetical though, and it is only one of the paths forward.

The African American vote may end up as one of the great ironies of the campaign. All the candidates with specific AA appeal were unable to crack Biden's firewall of support, so they dropped out. Now the African American community could end up as the last leg supporting Biden's coalition, but they are left with no good options, only the least worst. In that regard, the Billionaires are at least saying the right things.  

[NOVA Green]

Although Pete was camping in Iowa, and did much better than expected in some of the rurals, it was really his performance in metro Des Moines, combined with a relatively decent statewide spread which jacked his numbers up...

Key question for the NH Primaries, will be can Pete not only perform well in some of posh 'burbs of NH, but additionally do something similar in the rurals which he did in IA?

This is a great observation. The predominant media narrative is to lump in urban and suburban, probably because most media people live/work in urban and suburban areas. However, Buttigieg and Bernie essentially tied in rural areas of IA while Pete outperformed Bernie significantly in suburbs and especially exurbs. Bernie's strength was smaller cities. I expect this pattern to hold everywhere outside the south.

This would seem to imply that Buttigieg can make a killing in the Boston exurbs of southeastern NH. However, I think it really comes down to whether Kobluchar can do OK since she is strong in the same areas. I'm unsure of Warren who might also be strong there, since its not clear who she will be drawing from there.

Thanks SInNYC....

You do make some solid observations, as well as interjecting a wild-card (Amy K.) who I did not mention in my previous summary of the largest DEM PRIM VOTE breadbasket in NH (Hillsborough County).

1.) Rurals will likely be key in determining the outcome of the 2020 NH DEM PRIM. If Bernie can deliver anything close to the same numbers in the (4) Counties bordering VT (As well as similar areas even in Hillsborough County), he will likely win this thing.

2.) Urban is limited in NH, simply because there is really only two large Cities (Manchester & Nashua)

3.) Suburban starts to stretch the map (Including a town which I mentioned--- (Bedford)

4.) Exurban--- Perhaps this includes some of the other Towns / Townships in NH referenced in Hillsborough County.

5.) Kobluchar is a wild-card in my mind, since it's hard to see where her base of support is within NH. Which candidates are her voters likely to consider in the event that they believe that Amy can't close the deal.... if so, then where do they go?

It's entirely plausible that in rural NH that Pete/Amy/Joe are all playing in the same lane to grab the HRC voters from '16.

How much of Bernie's margins does this munch up in the event that places where he won with 65% of the vote in '16 now turn into only a 45% vote number???

6.) Warren--- At least what we saw in IA was that she played well in the College Communities (Liz won Johnson County in PV!!!) as well as Middle and Upper-Middle Class communities within Metro Des Moines....

In IA, Liz performed best in parts of Iowa City where the Pop was 45+ yrs, indicating more of the Grad School & Professor Voters (Would expect to see that same pattern in NH in College Communities),

I would expect to see her numbers do better in places in SE NH and eat into some of the Sanders '16 PRIM vote share. Still looks like she might have to wrangle with Pete for some of these same voters....

7.) Biden--- Well it's difficult to see where exactly his base of support is within NH. I would imagine that he performs better in rurals, small towns, and working-class cities such as Manchester, but not performing spectacularly well.

Just my two cents added to your two cents, so I guess we have a collective Four Cents, while meanwhile opinions are like (fill in the blank)... 

[redjohn]

Going to point out that Bernie has his highest vote share in the NH polling average of this entire primary cycle. Of the 21 polls of NH this February, Sanders has only not led one (Pete+1). It would be a shock if Buttigieg won NH, and there's a good chance Sanders wins and the narrative becomes that this was always his to lose and others didn't have a shot.

He could lose, but it would be a decent polling error and would damage his campaign.

[NOVA Green]

Okay--- already covered Hillsborough County and the largest DEM PRIM vote bank in NH...

Time to take a peak at the 2nd largest County when it comes to DEM PRIM numbers...

The largest Counties in terms of DEM electorate share were Sanders weakest Counties in 2016.

Hillsborough County--- 69k Votes (28% of Vote Share) + 16% Sanders
Rockingham County--- 55k Votes (22% of Vote Share)  + 15% Sanders
Merrimack County---    31k Votes (13% of Vote Share)  + 17% Sanders


Rockingham County....

MHI--- $ 82.4k/Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 93% "White" , 2% Latino, 2% Asian, and 1% Black

Age: Skews pretty close to the Statewide avg... 18-24 Yrs a bit below (maybe kids in College elsewhere?).

Ancestry: 25% Irish, 22% French & French Canadians, 15% Italian (!!!), 5% Polish.

Education: (25+ Yrs): 50% HS+ Degree

Occupations: Significant MGMT skew, other than that looks close to statewide %.

Industries: MFG a few ticks above statewide, healthcare a couple points down, retail even, education a bit lower, professional a few % points above


Where are the votes at?

1.) Derry Town (1.9% of 2016 NH State PRIM Voters and 8.7% of County Vote Share).

4.8k Votes (60% Sanders- 38% Clinton)   +22% Sanders

MHI-- $61.0k/Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 92% "White" , 3% Latino, 2% Asian, and 2% Black

Age: Pop bulge skews heavily 25-55 Yrs 

Ancestry: 27% Irish, 24% French & French Canadians, 17% Italian (!!!), 5% Polish.

Education: 37% > HS Degree

Occupations: Lower White Collar way exceeds (Adminstration, Sales).... Production, Food Service and Transportation much higher than State avgs...

Mgmt much lower, Education much lower,

Industries: Health Care matches state, retail exceeds state, mfg significantly exceeds state, construction way exceeds state.

Looking good for Sanders here.... solid performance among WWC DEM non-WASP voters, Def could see Biden over-performing here, with Pete taking a cut, but doesn't really look like Pete/Liz Country.

2.) Salem Town: (1.6% of 2016 NH STATE PRIM VOTERS, and 7.3% of County Vote Share).

4.0k Votes (52% Sander- 45% Clinton)     +7% Sanders

MHI--- $ 79.5/Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 90% "White" , 6% Latino, 3% Asian.

Age: Skews pretty close to the Statewide avg but a pretty big bulge in the 20-34 yr category

Ancestry: 26% Irish, 21% French & French Canadians, 21% Italian (!!!), 5% Polish.

Education: (25+ Yrs): 43% HS+ Degree

Occupations: Administration skews way high (16%), mgmt & sales track statewide, construction and production much higher than state.

Industries: MFG ticks much higher at 16%, Retail quite bit higher, health care lower, construction way higher.

No idea how this town will vote in the 2020 Primaries, but would not be surprised to see Bernie do better than expected despite his '16 numbers. One could argue that Joe & Pete have some options here as well....

So to keep us entertained now we have at least a brief summary of the 16% of DEM 16 PRIM votes and what it may or may not mean come 2020....

[Sbane]

I think only a shock win by Pete of more than 10 points could convince me he can overcome his AA problems.

If somehow Pete  goes on to win this thing it will be in spite of rather than because he overcame his problems with non-suburban African Americans. Biden or Steyer or Bloomberg will carry the communities delegates, they will endorse Pete (in this hypothetical) going into the divided convention making him the de facto nominee even though he will lose the formal first vote, and Pete will pick Kesha Bottoms or Lori Lightfoot as his VP to make amends with the community. This is all hypothetical though, and it is only one of the paths forward. 

Definitely agree that Pete has a path, but it involves him winning states such as NH by double digits.

[eric82oslo]

I think only a shock win by Pete of more than 10 points could convince me he can overcome his AA problems.

If somehow Pete  goes on to win this thing it will be in spite of rather than because he overcame his problems with non-suburban African Americans. Biden or Steyer or Bloomberg will carry the communities delegates, they will endorse Pete (in this hypothetical) going into the divided convention making him the de facto nominee even though he will lose the formal first vote, and Pete will pick Kesha Bottoms or Lori Lightfoot as his VP to make amends with the community. This is all hypothetical though, and it is only one of the paths forward. 

Definitely agree that Pete has a path, but it involves him winning states such as NH by double digits.

Sorry, not double digits. At the very least triple digits. And even then he probably doesn't stand a chance. Who are seriously trying to kid themselves here?

[Vern]

I think the real race is for second.

[It’s so Joever]

Going to point out that Bernie has his highest vote share in the NH polling average of this entire primary cycle. Of the 21 polls of NH this February, Sanders has only not led one (Pete+1). It would be a shock if Buttigieg won NH, and there's a good chance Sanders wins and the narrative becomes that this was always his to lose and others didn't have a shot.

He could lose, but it would be a decent polling error and would damage his campaign.

It IS his to lose. If Bernie somehow does lose NH he is in hot water.

[2016]

When do you think will the Networks project a Winner in New Hampshire tomorrow? In 2016 Trump & Sanders were projected Winners at the time of Poll Closing 8pm ET!

[Tender Branson]

When do you think will the Networks project a Winner in New Hampshire tomorrow? In 2016 Trump & Sanders were projected Winners at the time of Poll Closing 8pm ET!

I think that the exit polls will be around Bernie +3 to +6, which means that networks will wait until 80% or so is counted.

(I’m hoping that Pete outperforms the Exit Poll and creates a tie with the actual votes being counted at around 26% both.)

Vote counting should take 3-4 hours.