2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[Torie]

Is your preference state by state? If so, you would support a Pub gerrymander in CA, because the Pubs are getting like 8 out of 52 seats, when they "should" be getting about a third of the pie. And it would be pretty gross to boot. Your whole system of trying to make it fair breaks down in states that are not quite closely balanced politically. And gerrymandering for fairness should really focus on the overall national result since these days with the polarized parties that is almost the only thing that matters. If you gerrymander for one party in one state, you probably will need to effectively gerrymander for the other party in another state, to make it "fair" overall. You are probably well on your way to opening a Pandora's Box.

I don't really support the current system, so yeah. Democrats have a slightly better record on gerrymandering reform, but it's still atrocious what they have and haven't done. FPTP in single member districts drawn by the lawmakers themselves has done nothing but ruin both government and faith in government. You have entire decades in some states where the only thing keeping the majority party in power is the fact that at some point years prior they got to draw the lines, and drew them just well enough to cling to power even when they got less votes, and in some cases this level of control perpetuated itself through multiple redistricting cycles.. I can't blame voters for losing faith in the government's ability to do anything when the allocation of power frequently does not match up with the votes.

The bizarre system in this country is nearly impossible to change, too. It requires the buy-in of many lawmakers who are only office because of this system and the control it affords them, so I'm all for other, more sympathetic lawmakers and judges re-balancing the system in a more equitable way, when possible. I don't see any other way forward for change at the moment.

I decided way back in college that a parliamentary system in the modern age would be far better for the US than what the Founders and history devised. Ditch the whole thing, except perhaps making a Constitution written as opposed to unwritten, and having a Court to be the final arbiter of that, but in general with courts having less power to make policy. It was at that point that I decided my odds of becoming POTUS were basically at absolute zero. I had nothing going for me at all. So I got more interested in land use law and urban planning. Cities have always fascinated me.

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/VoteMeijer/status/1475940180741787649?t=5MI-rj6DylmGwTNjrL6P...

Meijer seems to think MI-03 is a COI, so.

[kwabbit]

I'm happy Meijer is showing some courage and sticking with his district. It's pretty close to a tossup even with it's adjustment left. Meijer should hypothetically be able to develop unique strength in his district. He's very moderate and carries the name of an iconic locally based business. I could see him keeping the district at least until the next blue wave and maybe even past that.

His 2020 performance was underwhelming, however. To do only +2 over Trump, who is an atrocious fit for the district, may signal that he is not very respected. Perhaps he's just viewed as a rich kid. Can someone from Western Michigan comment?

[lfromnj]

I'm happy Meijer is showing some courage and sticking with his district. It's pretty close to a tossup even with it's adjustment left. Meijer should hypothetically be able to develop unique strength in his district. He's very moderate and carries the name of an iconic locally based business. I could see him keeping the district at least until the next blue wave and maybe even past that.

His 2020 performance was underwhelming, however. To do only +2 over Trump, who is an atrocious fit for the district, may signal that he is not very respected. Perhaps he's just viewed as a rich kid. Can someone from Western Michigan comment?

Meijer isn't that strong. He underran John James by like 3 points.

[kwabbit]

I'm happy Meijer is showing some courage and sticking with his district. It's pretty close to a tossup even with it's adjustment left. Meijer should hypothetically be able to develop unique strength in his district. He's very moderate and carries the name of an iconic locally based business. I could see him keeping the district at least until the next blue wave and maybe even past that.

His 2020 performance was underwhelming, however. To do only +2 over Trump, who is an atrocious fit for the district, may signal that he is not very respected. Perhaps he's just viewed as a rich kid. Can someone from Western Michigan comment?

Meijer isn't that strong. He underran John James by like 3 points.

Was Hillary Scholten a good candidate? Meijer really should have done better given that he is a Meijer and the area's love of Republicans down ballot.

[lfromnj]

I'm happy Meijer is showing some courage and sticking with his district. It's pretty close to a tossup even with it's adjustment left. Meijer should hypothetically be able to develop unique strength in his district. He's very moderate and carries the name of an iconic locally based business. I could see him keeping the district at least until the next blue wave and maybe even past that.

His 2020 performance was underwhelming, however. To do only +2 over Trump, who is an atrocious fit for the district, may signal that he is not very respected. Perhaps he's just viewed as a rich kid. Can someone from Western Michigan comment?

Meijer isn't that strong. He underran John James by like 3 points.

Was Hillary Scholten a good candidate? Meijer really should have done better given that he is a Meijer and the area's love of Republicans down ballot.

Turns out he just isn't a very good candidate.

Paging MT Treasurer.

[Roll Roons]

I'm happy Meijer is showing some courage and sticking with his district. It's pretty close to a tossup even with it's adjustment left. Meijer should hypothetically be able to develop unique strength in his district. He's very moderate and carries the name of an iconic locally based business. I could see him keeping the district at least until the next blue wave and maybe even past that.

His 2020 performance was underwhelming, however. To do only +2 over Trump, who is an atrocious fit for the district, may signal that he is not very respected. Perhaps he's just viewed as a rich kid. Can someone from Western Michigan comment?

Meijer isn't that strong. He underran John James by like 3 points.

Was Hillary Scholten a good candidate? Meijer really should have done better given that he is a Meijer and the area's love of Republicans down ballot.

Turns out he just isn't a very good candidate.

Paging MT Treasurer.

I feel like he's actually a better candidate now than he was in 2020. He has the experience of running in a tough race and he's started to carve out a distinctive brand, while he was previously somewhat of a Generic R.

[lfromnj]

I'm happy Meijer is showing some courage and sticking with his district. It's pretty close to a tossup even with it's adjustment left. Meijer should hypothetically be able to develop unique strength in his district. He's very moderate and carries the name of an iconic locally based business. I could see him keeping the district at least until the next blue wave and maybe even past that.

His 2020 performance was underwhelming, however. To do only +2 over Trump, who is an atrocious fit for the district, may signal that he is not very respected. Perhaps he's just viewed as a rich kid. Can someone from Western Michigan comment?

Meijer isn't that strong. He underran John James by like 3 points.

Was Hillary Scholten a good candidate? Meijer really should have done better given that he is a Meijer and the area's love of Republicans down ballot.

Turns out he just isn't a very good candidate.

Paging MT Treasurer.

I feel like he's actually a better candidate now than he was in 2020. He has the experience of running in a tough race and he's started to carve out a distinctive brand, while he was previously somewhat of a Generic R.

He had gold tier name recognition. Its pretty clear he's a fairly meh candidate and I don't see how impeaching Trump is going to make him god tier with moderates.

[Oryxslayer]

He had gold tier name recognition. Its pretty clear he's a fairly meh candidate and I don't see how impeaching Trump is going to make him god tier with moderates.

If anything, it makes him 50-50 at best in the GOP primary - all those new D voters are choosing the D ballot of course and most of the R areas are new - and if he loses to the type of candidate who would appeal to the base then goodbye to any hope of a R hold.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One interesting thing to think about is that a decade ago the GOP gerrymander confined Detroit to 4 safe D seats. A decade later a fair map by the commission still only gives Detroit 4 D seats (though a 5th seat which is competitive). Even though the seat that doesn’t seem to have a successor is MI-02, the downtown Detroit seats in particular were way underpopulated by the end of the decade and had to expand. While one could say part of this phenomenon is due to Dem losses in Macomb, I’d argue Dem gains in Oakland more than cancel that out.

Looking back at old maps crazy to think how Detroit metro single-handedly got like 10 CDs. I mean just go on wiki and see how tiny the downtown Detroit districts were as recently as the 70s and 80s; between every decade there’s a clear loss in Detroit. It seems like Detroit isn’t shrinking as badly as it used to and the suburbs are actually growing enough to prolly sustain MI-11 so it won’t be badly underpopulated even if MI loses a seat next decade, but weird to think how on my lifetime Detroit may be down to only 2 CDs.

[nclib]

For reference here is the final map, with a DRA link:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::538b84c5-9d2a-402f-b5fd-b1b8320a6f01

(For the record, it is a little sad to see Meijer get put in a DEM-leaning seat. I liked him a lot. I hope he is able to hold on this year)

That doesn't appear to be the final map, and if it is, the numbers are wrong.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For reference here is the final map, with a DRA link:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::538b84c5-9d2a-402f-b5fd-b1b8320a6f01

(For the record, it is a little sad to see Meijer get put in a DEM-leaning seat. I liked him a lot. I hope he is able to hold on this year)

That doesn't appear to be the final map, and if it is, the numbers are wrong.

If it's not the final map it's at least very close. The new MI-03 is Biden + 8.47 according to my calculations. However, it only went to Peters by 2 and Stabenow by 3; Clinton won it by the skin of her teeth and it went to Romney pretty easily.

Overall it's a seat that seems to still be a tossup downballot but is swinging hard D

[BoiseBoy]

I imported the map using shapefiles from the MICRC website. It seems they made some very minor adjustments to the map like cutting into Monroe to keep Milan whole since then.

I've re-imported the shapefiles and you can find the map here:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::79809ebd-9d45-43a0-9319-765ed6ce62d0

[Bojack Horseman]

The new Congressional map is facing a lawsuit and I'd wager it will be struck down on VRA grounds. There is not a single minority-majority district in the new map because they played Tetris in Detroit. Minority vote dilution is also a significant concern in the state legislative maps, where inner city neighborhoods were deliberately balanced by the white suburbs. While the House will likely stay Republican under the new map, the Senate could very plausibly yield a 20-18 majority for Democrats if the maps were to actually go into effect.

[Oryxslayer]

The new Congressional map is facing a lawsuit and I'd wager it will be struck down on VRA grounds. There is not a single minority-majority district in the new map because they played Tetris in Detroit. Minority vote dilution is also a significant concern in the state legislative maps, where inner city neighborhoods were deliberately balanced by the white suburbs. While the House will likely stay Republican under the new map, the Senate could very plausibly yield a 20-18 majority for Democrats if the maps were to actually go into effect.

The commission and the minority interest groups that spoke before it quite literally had racially polarized voting data showing that 50% districts were unnecessary packs and lowering the percentages a bit below 50% - necessitating strips sadly cause the whites are north of Wayne - would expand minority access without damaging minority opportunity.

[compucomp]

The new Congressional map is facing a lawsuit and I'd wager it will be struck down on VRA grounds. There is not a single minority-majority district in the new map because they played Tetris in Detroit. Minority vote dilution is also a significant concern in the state legislative maps, where inner city neighborhoods were deliberately balanced by the white suburbs. While the House will likely stay Republican under the new map, the Senate could very plausibly yield a 20-18 majority for Democrats if the maps were to actually go into effect.

The commission and the minority interest groups that spoke before it quite literally had racially polarized voting data showing that 50% districts were unnecessary packs and lowering the percentages a bit below 50% - necessitating strips sadly cause the whites are north of Wayne - would expand minority access without damaging minority opportunity.

We'll see how the courts see it. I remember reading about the "unholy alliance" of white Republicans and blacks in the South on the subject of redistricting; black politicians wanted districts packed with black people to ensure that they would get elected since the prevailing thought was that white people regardless of party wouldn't vote for black people, and white Republicans were all too happy to oblige since it fit perfectly with the usual gerrymandering strategy. Perhaps that unholy alliance has been activated here and the Republicans found some black activists or politicians to join their side.

[politicallefty]

I think the Michigan map is quite interesting, but also acceptable. It's quite similar to the map I drew on page 20, with the major exceptions being that I drew the proposed MI-04, MI-05, and MI-06 quite differently and that the proposed Macomb district is more Democratic than my map. But as expected, the current MI-02 and MI-04 are basically collapsed into one district due to the loss of a district and population loss.

[patzer]

I do think it's a bit odd that they've unnecessarily split Detroit between multiple congressional districts.

[Torie]

The new Congressional map is facing a lawsuit and I'd wager it will be struck down on VRA grounds. There is not a single minority-majority district in the new map because they played Tetris in Detroit. Minority vote dilution is also a significant concern in the state legislative maps, where inner city neighborhoods were deliberately balanced by the white suburbs. While the House will likely stay Republican under the new map, the Senate could very plausibly yield a 20-18 majority for Democrats if the maps were to actually go into effect.

In both the Detroit based CD's, blacks are still a majority of the voters in Dem primaries, so a VRA claim seems DOA right out of the box.

[Brittain33]

I do think it's a bit odd that they've unnecessarily split Detroit between multiple congressional districts.

I think there’s a psychological barrier to reducing Detroit to 1 representative, plus it would probably result in an 75% AA district (depending on what else is added) which would be an illegal pack.

[Torie]

I do think it's a bit odd that they've unnecessarily split Detroit between multiple congressional districts.

I think there’s a psychological barrier to reducing Detroit to 1 representative, plus it would probably result in an 75% AA district (depending on what else is added) which would be an illegal pack.

It would be an illegal pack only if Gingles triggers two black CD's. The trigger is right on the cusp, assuming block voting. I can barely draw 50% BCVAP CD's based on the 2019 ACS estimates, which  is really more like 2016 figures, without reaching for Pontiac.

[Mr.Phips]

The new Congressional map is facing a lawsuit and I'd wager it will be struck down on VRA grounds. There is not a single minority-majority district in the new map because they played Tetris in Detroit. Minority vote dilution is also a significant concern in the state legislative maps, where inner city neighborhoods were deliberately balanced by the white suburbs. While the House will likely stay Republican under the new map, the Senate could very plausibly yield a 20-18 majority for Democrats if the maps were to actually go into effect.

Those groups would be better off focusing on states like AR, SC, AL, and SC where more black influence seats could clearly be created than wasting their time and resources on Michigan.  The two Detroit districts can easily elect a member of African American voters’ choice.

[Torie]

I decided that Michigan badly needed a map beautification program, and came up with this stunning specimen, thereby deserving a tree moniker of equal magnificence. Can you guess the name of the species?

It also has diversity. Every county in the state but one, has a real potential of having at least a portion thereof represented by a Pub.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e533be5d-680c-42be-924f-f2c4d0f37b90

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I decided that Michigan badly needed a map beautification program, and came up with this stunning specimen, thereby deserving a tree moniker of equal magnificence. Can you guess the name of the species?

It also has diversity. Every county in the state but one, has a real potential of having at least a portion thereof represented by a Pub.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e533be5d-680c-42be-924f-f2c4d0f37b90

I don’t know about trees, but given that it’s a Republican gerrymander, Poisonwood seems like a rather apt name

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fun fact; Obama '08 won every district except MI-09 which ig isn't too suprising but still just awes me.

Also, according to my calculations, every district would be underpopulated today if they existed in the prior decade if that makes sense; only 3 and 12 came close to holding their ground