Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Hydera]

If Bernie ends up winning this, Pete comes out of the whole thing diminished as a candidate and a human being.

If the media reports on it properly, sure.

The debate will surely be the opportunity for Bernie to announce his victory in a way that everyone can hear about it. It may not do much, but it will surely make it awkward for Buttigieg and possibly blunt whatever momentum he has.

"It's funny, you're saying I said I won, and the media says that I said that as well.  But I never said that.  I said we had a victorious night, and we did.  We got twice as many votes as many polls predicted.  We beat all the pundits who said our campaign didn't have a chance.  We showed that an LGBT man can compete and nearly win on the toughest political stage in this country..." and so on and so forth.

It's an easy pivot for Pete.

Theres a difference between a speech relegated to a winner's speech and a close second tie speech. The momentum boost would had been lower for the second than the first. Pete got the chance to have a winner's speech due to the media AND the sh**t DNC with its shnennegians with the ed up app of which should be its own story considering the amount of DNC and Hillary insiders involved with the creation of a crap app AND the DNC forcing the Iowa and Nevada Democratic party to use that sh**t app.

Had Bernie been allowed to make that speech he would had won NH and plausibly Nevada and steamroll Super Tuesday and now it would be tossups.

[GeneralMacArthur]

You guys act like giving a "victory speech" when the odds are extremely in your favor is the scandal of the century.

Mitt Romney gave a victory speech in 2012.  Nobody cared when he ended up not winning.

[Pericles]

To be fair, it is right that Buttigieg's result-whether it was a narrow win or narrow loss-was an overperformance. That said, in these circumstances with such a close result and the slow results, I doubt there'll be much of an Iowa bounce for anyone-which is good for Bernie because he probably gets the New Hampshire bounce.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/jhobfoll/status/1225331338192048139?s=21

Note; I haven’t seen any additional verification of this but according to Taniel on Twitter this guy is legit and has pointed out legitimate errors before.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Imagine what would have happened if all the results came in fast.

Bernie did as expected, but he was unexpectedly tied by another candidate!

That candidate was Pete Buttigieg, originally expected to come in 3rd behind Joe Biden.

In other words, Buttigieg would have gotten a big boost out of Iowa even in a normal scenario.

This is why I still maintain my position that Iowa delegates should not be seated. The IADP/DNC's handling of this situation is so inept and has hurt three of the top 4's campaigns so much that the penalty is warranted.

If Pete wins, the controversy around the Iowa caucus being slow to report overshadows his win. The headlines aren't about his upset victory. They aren't about Bernie or Biden. They're about the terrible state of reporting. In addition, the more cultish elements of my movement will continue to conspire about the DNC, especially with the bevy of human errors around the tabulation of the results. Essentially, the ****show from the past few days continues unabated.

If Bernie wins, he gets robbed of a victory speech and the momentum of being declared the SDE winner of the Iowa caucus. Instead of him getting a boost (like he needed one in NH), it's Buttigieg.  Hell, I don't know why MacArthur's mad, considering it's his candidate who loses the most from all this. Buttigieg is already getting a bump from these 3 days of publicity at Biden's expense, and if momentum holds, Bernie could take South Carolina too.

No matter what happened, the Democratic Party's incompetence cheated someone out of a massive opportunity. It's a massive black mark on the party, a black mark on the caucus system, and a black mark on democracy itself.

[afleitch]

So wait.

Was this a grand conspiracy against Sanders to eventually give him a delegate and / or PV win in Iowa?

Speaking as someome who came round to Sanders after five years but feel I've jumped in the clown car.

[Adam Griffin]

And -0.36 for Bernie compared to above in these 2 precincts.

Assuming all of his data is correct/reflective of something other than data entry issues on the media's end, Buttigieg's SDE lead now is 1.1442.

https://twitter.com/Jhobfoll/status/1225352385712852992

[Sorenroy]

TBH, at this point it's silly to say that anyone won this thing.  Look back at this thread and the sheer number of inconsistencies and data errors Atlas has found.  This is now so close that any one of those errors could swing the result.

I definitely agree that this (and all close elections) should not be paraded around as wins, especially when they make up only a small part of the total process. No one goes out and celebrates 'cause they won a county 52-48. As has been repeated ad nauseam, Iowa's significance is almost entirely a weirdly overplayed emphasis on who narrowly wins first place, even though it has 1) only 1% of the total number of pledged delegates and 2) is proportional, just like every other Democratic primary/caucus.

Unfortunately, coming from you, it's frustrating to hear. Almost all of your previous posts in this thread have either been complaining about Sanders, complaining about the Sanders campaign, or complaining about Sanders supporters. When it looked like Buttigieg was ahead, it was complimenting his efforts to find supporters in "every nook and cranny" of the state. Now that Sanders looks close, it's complaining about Sanders cheating by focusing on a get out the vote effort for satellite caucuses. When it looked like Buttigieg was ahead, it was insinuating that Sanders supporters couldn't accept a loss even after mocking Hillary for her own. Now that Sanders looks close, it's a call for viewing the results as a tie.

Your calls for unity and a critical view of what went down in Iowa wring hollow when they only show up when the results are in question, even if your ultimate conclusion is something everyone in this thread can agree with.

[Walmart_shopper]

To be fair, it is right that Buttigieg's result-whether it was a narrow win or narrow loss-was an overperformance. That said, in these circumstances with such a close result and the slow results, I doubt there'll be much of an Iowa bounce for anyone-which is good for Bernie because he probably gets the New Hampshire bounce.

Yep, which makes his absurd and totally premature declaration of victory even more foolish. He could have come out and said that he was grateful for an unexpected amount of support that propelled him to first or near first place finish. Instead he practically gave himself a coronation speech. He put the dye in the moneybag himself.

[T'Chenka]

So wait.

Was this a grand conspiracy against Sanders to eventually give him a delegate and / or PV win in Iowa?

Speaking as someome who came round to Sanders after five years but feel I've jumped in the clown car.

Regardless of my personal feelings on Bernie, I think it's important to remember his supporters acting like clowns online doesn't necessarily make him or his campaign clowns.

[W]

What an utter and complete disaster this has been.

[Annatar]

This is the most hilarious election result I've ever seen, it takes days for it to be reported and nobody knows who's going to win, imagine if the 2020 presidential election is like this.

[Walmart_shopper]

What an utter and complete disaster this has been.

Maybe I'm just blinded by my feeling the bern, but I have to imagine that all of this plays so entirely and precisely into Sanders' meta-narrative about American politics: an incompetent and maybe mendacious political and economic establishment propped up and run by economic and political insiders largely to empower and sometimes enrich those same insiders has neither the courage nor the mind to create transformative and structural change in American politics, leaving the whole rest of us to either support atavistic hate-mongers on the right or otherwise give our future to those who will not protect it.

Literally the entirety of the last five days has teed it up for Bernie.

[Walmart_shopper]

This is the most hilarious election result I've ever seen, it takes days for it to be reported and nobody knows who's going to win, imagine if the 2020 presidential election is like this.

Don't even.

[W]

What an utter and complete disaster this has been.

Maybe I'm just blinded by my feeling the bern, but I have to imagine that all of this plays so entirely and precisely into Sanders' meta-narrative about American politics: an incompetent political and economic establishment propped up and run by economic and political insiders largely to empower and sometimes enrich those same political insiders has neither the courage nor the mind to create transformative and structural change in American politics, leaving the whole rest of us to either support atavistic hate-mongers on the right and give our future to those who will not protect it.

Literally the entirety of the last five days has teed it up for Bernie.

I agree. I've tried to keep above some of the less evidenced claims but my god. 97% in and THEN it gets close? This looks very intentional.

[Meclazine for Israel]

What an utter and complete disaster this has been.

If one were to read all 135 pages of this thread, would it be possible to form any other opinion?

I was hoping for a quick summary, and this appears to be it.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's nowhere near the gold standard, but seeing Biden's line basically drop straight down on 538's Democratic Primary forecast for a number of states is pretty jarring. 

[T'Chenka]

It's nowhere near the gold standard, but seeing Biden's line basically drop straight down on 538's Democratic Primary forecast for a number of states is pretty jarring. 

Crusty old (non-Marxist) men are #CANCELLED!!! #PrimariesSoWhite

[Technocracy Timmy]

It's nowhere near the gold standard, but seeing Biden's line basically drop straight down on 538's Democratic Primary forecast for a number of states is pretty jarring.  

He’s losing his home state of Delaware along with South Carolina to Bernie Sanders in their model.

In fact I think Bernie Sanders is favored to win in every state on 538’s model.

[T'Chenka]

It's nowhere near the gold standard, but seeing Biden's line basically drop straight down on 538's Democratic Primary forecast for a number of states is pretty jarring.  

He’s losing his home state of Delaware along with South Carolina to Bernie Sanders in their model.

In fact I think Bernie Sanders is favored to win in every state on 538’s model.

That sounds... unlikely to actually happen. The estsblishment will choose somebody and rally aroumd them, and that person will win a few states. If Booty-Judge did well with black voters, it would be him. It'll probably be Bloomberg. Their model probably doesn't have that kind of thing incorporated into it.

[BlueSwan]

It's nowhere near the gold standard, but seeing Biden's line basically drop straight down on 538's Democratic Primary forecast for a number of states is pretty jarring.  

He’s losing his home state of Delaware along with South Carolina to Bernie Sanders in their model.

In fact I think Bernie Sanders is favored to win in every state on 538’s model.

That sounds... unlikely to actually happen. The estsblishment will choose somebody and rally aroumd them, and that person will win a few states. If Booty-Judge did well with black voters, it would be him. It'll probably be Bloomberg. Their model probably doesn't have that kind of thing incorporated into it.

That’s exactly what many people were saying about Trump in 2016. Never happened.

[wbrocks67]

Bernie got blown out in states like Texas and Virginia in 2016. There's no way he's winning them, unless the field is still very, very divided.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bernie got blown out in states like Texas and Virginia in 2016. There's no way he's winning them, unless the field is still very, very divided.

Joe Biden is also no Hillary Clinton as evidenced by his pitiful performance here

[DanPrazeres]

It's nowhere near the gold standard, but seeing Biden's line basically drop straight down on 538's Democratic Primary forecast for a number of states is pretty jarring.  

He’s losing his home state of Delaware along with South Carolina to Bernie Sanders in their model.

In fact I think Bernie Sanders is favored to win in every state on 538’s model.

That sounds... unlikely to actually happen. The estsblishment will choose somebody and rally aroumd them, and that person will win a few states. If Booty-Judge did well with black voters, it would be him. It'll probably be Bloomberg. Their model probably doesn't have that kind of thing incorporated into it.

They have (and I guess that's why Sanders is winning in SC in their model, they should have adjusted the fact that Sanders went well among nonwhite voters in Iowa and Biden and Buttigieg not so much)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

When are we scheduled to get the full 100% of results?