Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Gass3268]

Another batch is in, up to 96% reporting.

[jimrtex]

Precincts Reporting---- (1623/1765 Precincts)---  92.0%

Outstanding "Traditional"--- FINAL Non Sat precincts by largest County:

Polk County: (165/177 Precincts)

Des Moines--- Precinct (66) & (83)--- South... Bernie generally leads in surrounding precincts with Pete 2nd

Des Moines--- Precinct (24)--- NE... Sanders 1st, Pete 2nd

Urbandale--- Precinct (3) ---- Warren/Bernie/Pete all pretty strong in surrounding precincts

West DM--- Precinct (212)--- Strong Bernie Country around here, with both Warren & Pete competitive

Clive--- Precinct (4)--- Strong Pete Country to the West with Warren, Klob, & Warren doing well....

Ankeny--- Precinct (---- Bernie/Pete Country in surrounding precincts

Bondurant--- Precinct (1)---- Likely Pete

Sheldahl- Precinct (1)--- Looks to be Pete/Biden/Klob Country

Polk City--- Precinct (1)--- Looks to be Pete/Biden/Klob Country

Allen--- Precinct (1)--- Looks to be Pete/Biden/Klob sort of area

So I'm missing one because of small NYT Map Size (or possible Polk County has it's own Sat???)

I have no idea of the relative total vote within those precincts, but it looks like Bernie has a decent shot at placing 1st in 6/11 listed, and Pete the others (or even possibly a Warren or Klob grab)....

The IDP has precinct results, but they are in Iowabetical order (all mixed up).

DM 66   12
WDM 212   11
Polk City   11
Ankeny 8  10
Clive 4     10
Urb 3       10
DM 83       8
Bond 1      6
DM 24       4
Shel         1
Allen C      1

Des Moines precincts tend to be smaller because they were likely established when cars were less pervasive. OTOH, some may be heavily Democratic, and be delegate rich because delegates are apportioned based on Democratic voting.

I bet DM 62 is very black (19 delegates)

Suburban precincts tend to be larger, but also more Republican. The precincts in Ankeny are among the largest, as a newly developing area (it is a bit more working class) but the newest suburban areas to the west are in Dallas County. Ankeny is a late developer, with the advantage of closeness to Des Moines, but the disadvantage of being built over coal mines.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Some elements of Sanders twitter have turned incredibly toxic and people are forgetting how basic math works.

Brace for it.  This is like day 2 and we've got 277 more to go.

[NOVA Green]

Precincts Reporting---- (1623/1765 Precincts)---  92.0%

Outstanding "Traditional"--- FINAL Non Sat precincts by largest County:

Scott: (54/63 Precincts)----   85.7% Reporting

Wow--- tons of precincts out here...

So looks like almost all are out of Davenport, generally strong Bernie Country...

A couple small Townships to the NW (Hickory Grove & Walcott)...

Maybe I'm missing a misc one or two outside of the City, but generally Sanders is placing 1st within the City with either Warren or Pete running seconds...

Anybody got better eyeballs or a larger monitor than my small laptop to see what's out there???

[Diabolical Materialism]

Some elements of Sanders twitter have turned incredibly toxic and people are forgetting how basic math works.

Brace for it.  This is like day 2 and we've got 277 more to go.

And we're only going to get worse. Prep yourself brother

[NOVA Green]

Another batch is in, up to 96% reporting.

HUGE DUMP... it's almost over folks to give us some time to prep for NH after doing a more detailed analysis of IA over the Weekend....

[Gass3268]

gass3268, why are you against sanders?

Lots of reasons, but this isn't the place. Would still obviously get my unconditional support against Trump.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

95.3% or 95.4% in now. Pete only up 16 SDE or 0.7 points. Bernie leads first round by 3.0 points and second by 0.9 points.

[Gass3268]

Looks like Joe is going to clear 15% statewide.

[jimrtex]

Precincts Reporting---- (1623/1765 Precincts)---  92.0%

Outstanding "Traditional"--- FINAL Non Sat precincts by largest County:

Linn: (83/86 Precincts)----

Cedar Rapids--- Precinct (23).... Looks to be likely Bernie, with Warren as a 2nd... Pete did place 3rd in precinct directly to the Southeast

Cedar Rapids--- Precinct (28).... Solid Bernie Country in surrounding Precincts within the City, with Warren & Pete alternating a few sloppy 2nds . Still, Pete did win a precinct directly to the South with Biden placing 2nd, so.... Lean Sanders (?)

Marion---- Precinct (7).... Tossup/ Tilt Bernie (?) Bernie captured the adjacent excepting the one to the North, but the precinct to the west was won by (1) vote over Pete, and the precinct to the East Warren did a strong 2nd with Pete placing 4th....

CR 23  6 delegates
CR 28  7 delegates
Marion 7  6 delegates

Pretty typical for the two cities. Some of the townships outside the city are smaller.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If only NYT would update their precinct maps on time.

Give them a break. Matching tabular data into GIS is a pain, and I'm speaking from experience.

[Skill and Chance]

It does seem plausible for Sanders to catch Buttigieg in the SDE count if the satellites are still out?

[NOVA Green]

So looks like after the dump a brief survey of the most populated counties:

169/177 Polk
85/86 Linn
59/63 Scott
55/57 Johnson
60/62 Black Hawk
41/44 Woodbury

[Gass3268]

It does seem plausible for Sanders to catch Buttigieg in the SDE count if the satellites are still out?

The needle disagrees, unless the needle doesn't understand how to figure in the satellites.

[Tender Branson]

Those satellite caucuses are coming in quite strong for Bernie.

Probably Pete just wins by 1-3 delegate equivalents in the end.

He still overperformed the polls by about 4% in the initial vote count though.

He seems also on good footing for NH, with the new tracking polls out.

PETEMENTUM !

[Archies Wild Ride]

After the update, they are still getting Des Moines-14 wrong. I wonder how many others are misreported. With the SDEs this close, it could decide the winner.

[jimrtex]

So looks like after the dump a brief survey of the most populated counties:

169/177 Polk
85/86 Linn
59/63 Scott
55/57 Johnson
60/62 Black Hawk
41/44 Woodbury

There are 47 traditional precincts in 29 counties still out. It appears that they are working all counties simultaneously. Maybe they have brought the county chairs in, along with the paper records? This last dump finished up 21 counties.

[NOVA Green]

So looks like after the dump a brief survey of the most populated counties:

169/177 Polk
85/86 Linn
59/63 Scott
55/57 Johnson
60/62 Black Hawk
41/44 Woodbury

There are 47 traditional precincts in 29 counties still out. It appears that they are working all counties simultaneously. Maybe they have brought the county chairs in, along with the paper records? This last dump finished up 21 counties.

I would imagine the intervention of the DNC to resolve this SNAFU with massive level of resources involved, data verification, regular updates to all of the Campaigns, transparency, etc might actually give us a good chance of knowing something close to the final results by early tomorrow AM or Noon at the latest....

So of the counties I listed that is (20) traditional precincts in the (6) largest Counties by pop....

What else is outstanding in traditional county precincts?

Story County--- (2) precincts... Rurals or

Bernie/Warren Country Overall, but....

Pattowamie County--- (2) Precincts....

One is rural small, the other ()

Warren County--- (2) Precincts

DM-86 Bernie/Pete  (?)
Palmyra Twsp--- Pete/Warren (?)

There is (26) of the remaining (47) traditional precincts....

[2016]

Those satellite caucuses are coming in quite strong for Bernie.

Probably Pete just wins by 1-3 delegate equivalents in the end.

He still overperformed the polls by about 4% in the initial vote count though.

He seems also on good footing for NH, with the new tracking polls out.

PETEMENTUM !

If Sanders is within 10 Delegates before the remaining two Satellites report he's gonna snatch this away from Pete.

[Skill and Chance]

So looks like after the dump a brief survey of the most populated counties:

169/177 Polk
85/86 Linn
59/63 Scott
55/57 Johnson
60/62 Black Hawk
41/44 Woodbury

There are 47 traditional precincts in 29 counties still out. It appears that they are working all counties simultaneously. Maybe they have brought the county chairs in, along with the paper records? This last dump finished up 21 counties.

Hmmm... so that list is 20 precincts, so the other 27 are 3 precincts of the Marion and Warren Pete blowouts plus rural counties (presumably heavily NotBernie, with a few heavily Pete precincts).  Of the 20 urban precincts out, 12 are in essentially tied Polk and Scott.  I think Pete holds on in SDEs, but it will close a bit.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If only NYT would update their precinct maps on time.

Give them a break. Matching tabular data into GIS is a pain, and I'm speaking from experience.

My apologies to NYT.

OK now I'm wondering what's taking them so long to update. They did so much more quickly the other times. I hope they didn't just go to bed...

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1225272553255645184?s=20

[n1240]

So looks like after the dump a brief survey of the most populated counties:

169/177 Polk
85/86 Linn
59/63 Scott
55/57 Johnson
60/62 Black Hawk
41/44 Woodbury

There are 47 traditional precincts in 29 counties still out. It appears that they are working all counties simultaneously. Maybe they have brought the county chairs in, along with the paper records? This last dump finished up 21 counties.

I would imagine the intervention of the DNC to resolve this SNAFU with massive level of resources involved, data verification, regular updates to all of the Campaigns, transparency, etc might actually give us a good chance of knowing something close to the final results by early tomorrow AM or Noon at the latest....

So of the counties I listed that is (20) traditional precincts in the (6) largest Counties by pop....

What else is outstanding in traditional county precincts?

Story County--- (2) precincts... Rurals or

Bernie/Warren Country Overall, but....

Pattowamie County--- (2) Precincts....

One is rural small, the other ()

Warren County--- (2) Precincts

DM-86 Bernie/Pete  (?)
Palmyra Twsp--- Pete/Warren (?)

There is (26) of the remaining (47) traditional precincts....

Can't find the number of total SDEs from Story County precincts, but Collins Twp-Collins and Grant Township appear to be the remaining precincts there. Pete has .42 SDEs (15/37 on final alignment) in Collins Twp-Collins and 0 in Grant Township (14/32 on final alignment, might only have one county level delegate?)

Pottawatomie has Hancock and Carter Lake 2 missing, Pete earns .12 and .24 SDEs respectively; with a total of .24 and .84 SDEs to be awarded

In Warren, Pete earns 0 in DM-86, and .23 in Palmyra; each of them have .23 total SDEs

[n1240]

If only NYT would update their precinct maps on time.

Give them a break. Matching tabular data into GIS is a pain, and I'm speaking from experience.

My apologies to NYT.

OK now I'm wondering what's taking them so long to update. They did so much more quickly the other times. I hope they didn't just go to bed...

Looks like it's updated now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If only NYT would update their precinct maps on time.

Give them a break. Matching tabular data into GIS is a pain, and I'm speaking from experience.

My apologies to NYT.

OK now I'm wondering what's taking them so long to update. They did so much more quickly the other times. I hope they didn't just go to bed...

Looks like it's updated now.

The forecast still isn't.