Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[NOVA Green]

Does anybody know where all of these (1250) precincts came from compared to the original (1111) precincts?

[Senator Spark]

Does it matter that Sanders won the raw vote? (As I predicted)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does anybody know where all of these (1250) precincts came from compared to the original (1111) precincts?

NYT has the map

[LAKISYLVANIA]

i'm going to bed, hopefully we will get more results tomorrow.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

the Bernie Bros who spent four years....insisting that the popular vote doesn't matter,

Are there very many such people, do you think?

[Antonio the Sixth]

NYT forecasted final SDE count (comparison with previous forecast):

Pete 560 (+3)
Bernie 529 (+3)
Warren 386 (-2)
Biden 306 (-1)
Klob 251 (=)
Others 23 (+2)

That adds up to 5 more SDEs than before so the math must be a little wonky, but the big takeaway is that not much has changed.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Does it matter that Sanders won the raw vote? (As I predicted)

It feeds into the “it’s rigged against Bernie” meme for the low info people

[Oryxslayer]

NYT forecasted final SDE count (comparison with previous forecast):

Pete 560 (+3)
Bernie 529 (+3)
Warren 386 (-2)
Biden 306 (-1)
Klob 251 (=)
Others 23 (+2)

That adds up to 5 more SDEs than before so the math must be a little wonky, but the big takeaway is that not much has changed.

So now Biden is projected to be under the 15% threshold by 1? Spooky.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The SDE breakdown among the new batch of votes that just came in:

Pete 26.1%
Bernie 25.9%
Warren 19.0%
Biden 14.4%
Klob 12.6%
Yang 1.0%
Steyer 0.6%
Uncommitted 0.3%
Gabbard 0.1%

So by and large similar to the previous batch. Marginally better for Bernie and Warren, slightly worse for Pete and Biden, but very marginally.

[Oryxslayer]

Also,Warren now leads in Decatur on round 1, and in Washington and most importantly Johnson during round 2.

[NOVA Green]

71% and still ahead ?

Nice.

But I will only be fully chillaxing when 90-95% is reported ...

Technically Mayor Pete is coming from behind, and plus his overall numbers give him a chance of actually taking the popular vote, versus delegate counts where the MSM proclaims the leader of the pack.

Your boy done well, take a rip & a shot, step outside to have a cig and celebrate the "victory"....

Pete is the flavor of the Week, and will likely get a bit of a bump heading into IA as a fresh face, with fresh style, and potentially dominated the "Centrist Lane" of the DEMs heading into Super Tuesday...

Will it hold once he hits the Biden Wall in the Southlands, Steyer starts to become a player, with Bloomberg adds bombarding every single home in America ever single day???

Pete's gonna need some dough to make it work, but there are DEM Male Centrists out there with tons of money to spend out of their own bank accounts....

Keep it real Pete, but to be successful he will need to challenge the Fat Cat Money folks and hope that he can get some "dialing for dollars".

Hypothetically winning a majority of delegates in Iowa is one thing, but the Small-Town Mayor from Indiana better bring some brass knuckles and dollars with him now that he is a contender in the ring....

No beef with the Pete, although he's not my horse in the race, he definitely has a career and a name for himself going forward.....

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The SDE breakdown among the new batch of votes that just came in:

Pete 26.1%
Bernie 25.9%
Warren 19.0%
Biden 14.4%
Klob 12.6%
Yang 1.0%
Steyer 0.6%
Uncommitted 0.3%
Gabbard 0.1%

So by and large similar to the previous batch. Marginally better for Bernie and Warren, slightly worse for Pete and Biden, but very marginally.

Well, for Biden, that “very marginally” may cost him delegates

[Mr. Morden]

Isn't it the case that the satellite caucuses aren't included in these totals yet?  Based on the anecdotal reporting from caucus day, those seemed to go pretty poorly for Biden, so I can't imagine adding them will boost his chances of staying above 15%.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I can't wait for the Bernie Bros who spent four years mocking Hillary for losing and insisting that the popular vote doesn't matter, to now turn around and insist that the popular vote is the only thing that matters.

Who’s been saying that lmao

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

How do you win a fraction of a state delegate?

[Sestak]

I can't wait for the Bernie Bros who spent four years mocking Hillary for losing and insisting that the popular vote doesn't matter, to now turn around and insist that the popular vote is the only thing that matters.

Pretty sure the vast majority of Bernie supporters oppose the Electoral College?

[BlueSwan]

Just woke up in Europe. Still no final results.

Bernie and Pete can both claim victory, but it is overall better for Bernie. Pete really needed the Iowa bump and now he probably isn’t getting one, although Biden tanking is good for him. Bernie needed to outperform Biden and Warren and he did.

Bernie should be the new favourite for the nomination but it is far from over.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Hopefully Biden gets below 15% narrowly, will give Bernie & Butti each 3 delegates more.

[NOVA Green]

So "The Left" (Bernie + Warren) is now up to 46% of SDEs???

[Walmart_shopper]

Why does the SDE lead even matter? The popular vote total matters for how candidates will perform in the primary contests, and the delegate total matters for winning the nomination. The SDE is irrelevant except insofar as it is related to the other two.

It matters for the media to be able to croon how Bernie "lost." It matters for no-shot candidates like Buttigieg to be able to preen about "winning." The idiocy of the caucus is that it allows everyone to get it all exactly wrong.

In any case, Bernie didn't get the momentum he needed out of Iowa and Biden didn't get the knockout he deserved. I suspect New Hampshire, which is actual election and not an elaborate and LARPy democratic political game, will sort this out properly.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I can't wait for the Bernie Bros who spent four years mocking Hillary for losing and insisting that the popular vote doesn't matter, to now turn around and insist that the popular vote is the only thing that matters.

Who’s been saying that lmao

The way MacArthur's mind works is:

1) One random person who supports Bernie on twitter says something.
2) Therefore all Bernie supporters agree with that.
3) Therefore Bernie Sanders is horrible and Joe Biden is the most electable despite coming in 4th in Iowa and never having won a primary/caucus outside of his home state despite having run for President about 50 times and flaming out each time.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I can't wait for the Bernie Bros who spent four years mocking Hillary for losing and insisting that the popular vote doesn't matter, to now turn around and insist that the popular vote is the only thing that matters.

Who’s been saying that lmao

The way MacArthur's mind works is:

1) One random person who supports Bernie on twitter says something.
2) Therefore all Bernie supporters agree with that.
3) Therefore Bernie Sanders is horrible and Joe Biden is the most electable despite coming in 4th in Iowa and never having won a primary/caucus outside of his home state despite having run for President about 50 times and flaming out each time.

As if the entirety of social media and YouTube hasn't been drowning for the last four years in the left going "Hillary Clinton is a LOSER and everyone who supported her is also a LOSER and needs to SHUT UP" which always sparks this debate.

We can probably go to any of the recent threads about Hillary attacking Sanders and find multiple instances of this exchange.

I bet in six months you'll be trying to claim that the whole #MayorCheat thing was just a random person on Twitter and I was the only one to notice.

The extremists were humongous assholes for four years and think we're all going to suddenly forget if you just gaslight hard enough.  Not gonna happen.

[Oryxslayer]

How do you win a fraction of a state delegate?

SDEs are a media/state party creation from a long time back to make it all simpler to understand. After these caucuses, the elected delegates go to a county convention, where they select delegates to go to the state level. At the state level they select convention nominees. From what I understand, until very recently, counties operated like state legislatures and had total numbers of delegates for the county level vary wildly and often with only a slight accommodation for the variations in size. However, the state level delegates are proportionally distributed. SDEs therefore are a creation designed to cut out the county level step and go straight from the precinct to the state for view comprehension. So,you can have decimal SDEs because say a county could have 50 delegates at the county level, 9 of which came from precinct A, but only 4 delegates are sent to the state convention.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The SDE breakdown among the new batch of votes that just came in:

Pete 26.1%
Bernie 25.9%
Warren 19.0%
Biden 14.4%
Klob 12.6%
Yang 1.0%
Steyer 0.6%
Uncommitted 0.3%
Gabbard 0.1%

So by and large similar to the previous batch. Marginally better for Bernie and Warren, slightly worse for Pete and Biden, but very marginally.

Because I'm obsessed, here's the first preference pattern among this batch as well.

Bernie 24.0%
Pete 21.3%
Warren 18.1%
Biden 15.0%
Klob 13.1%
Yang 5.4%
Steyer 2.1%
Others 1.0%

Interestingly, this is the opposite pattern as for the SDEs. Bernie and Warren doing marginally worse than in the first batch, Biden and Klobuchar (and Yang and Steyer) doing marginally better. Still all very small differences. By and large we're seeing more of the same.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

You really can't group these votes into ideological coalitions. The number of unviable Klobuchar people who were indifferent between the two women has got to be astounding.

And on the CNN last night, the large precinct that they showed only had Warren/Sanders viable. While Klob/Biden supporters went uncommitted, several dozen Pete voters joined the fellow educated in the Warren camp. Not sure they'd be keen to join forces with the Bern outs after this debacle.

If they still had the raw vote cards, it would be a super cool study to see the actual preference switches rather than guessing at all Yang people going to Sanders, etc.