Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Queen Isuelt]

Two points with regards to the retirement home number in Florida.

I had Klobuchar only losing by 50k to Trump which is nothing but Sanders losing by 300k.
The old vote is going to critical for any democratic nominee in Florida/Arizona if a dem is to win here. Sanders offers different strengths like in ohio, kentucky, west virginia but I don't think he can win in florida or arizona.

Klobuchar does expand the map but she has zero support with young people or people in the liberal states.

Dems think the fracking policy is bad but its actually sound policy for votes in the midwest.

As if the liberal states are going to vote Trump.

1) I don't agree that Klobuchar has 0 support in liberal states but...

2) Trump lost Minnesota by only 1.5%

If Amy Klobuchar is elected, that takes Minnesota out of play to the point where time and money doesn't even need to be spent there to defend it. Other candidates may need to defend Minnesota. She's also likely to do much better in the Midwestern toss up states than the other candidates.

Hillary did bad in Minnesota because working class democrats despised her not because she wasn't centrist enough.

nobody has got votes than klobuchar in minnesota. She outran obama by 8pts and in 2018 won by 20+% winning 42 trump counties and over 1000+ precincts.

we need more results obviously. sanders is going to crush it in the big counties and he will make virutally everyone unviable. does seem to be a view that people are just going home if candidate isn't viable

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/GideonResnick/status/1224463536044281858

Looks like a Sanders landslide in Des Moines.

[We Live in Black and White]

https://twitter.com/GideonResnick/status/1224463536044281858

Looks like a Sanders landslide in Des Moines.

Mother of God. If this is reflective, tonight might be the making of a frontrunner.

[beaver2.0]

Is it possible that Biden gets Jeb'ed tonight?

I'd love to see it.  He's an overrated candidate and maybe a trouncing would wake America up to the fact that getting in line behind Biden because he's Obama's best friend isn't the greatest choice.

[W]

I could smell an astroturfing when i see one and im pretty sure its being done on twitter with the #Caucusforyang. Pretty sad since I supported him over the summer before switching to Bernie and you can smell how propped up and fake it is.

On the bright side he'll be either out after New Hampshire or Ron Paul level fringe.

[Sestak]

[transcription]

Gideon Resnick
✔
@GideonResnick
 · 27m
The scene at a caucus site at Drake University right now


(screenshot from video embed)

Gideon Resnick
✔
@GideonResnick
This is a satellite caucus to be clear but the left side is Sanders’ presence here


(screenshot from video embed)
5
4:43 PM - Feb 3, 2020

Looks like a Sanders landslide in Des Moines.

[jimrtex]

Why is there an in-state satellite caucus? Is it just for local people who won't be able to attend tonight? If so, why does this group seem to almost uniquely have this type of allowance?

Most are in Iowa.

14 are work-related (typically for those working the swing shift). Many of these are closed to union members.
24 are college-related. Many of the out-of-state caucuses are so-classified, but there are also some in Iowa. Ordinarily you are supposed to caucus where you are registered to vote. There are several at community colleges, perhaps targeted towards those who have evening classes.
29 are accessibility-related. Many are at nursing homes or assisted living or senior centers. These often have an earlier time.
11 are for language and culture groups (e.g. South Sudanese Center in Des Moines).
9 are for wintering Iowans (4 in Florida, 4 in Arizona, 1 in California).

[Florida Man for Crime]

what % of the democratic base is voters over 65?  anyone know?

About 20% of the votes Clinton got in 2016 were from voters age 65+, and about 26% that Democratic Congessional candidates got in 2018 were from voters age 65+ (that is higher mainly because it was a midterm and Seniors were a larger share of the electorate). With Obama in 2008, it was 17% of his votes from Seniors. It was lower for him because there was higher young voter turnout in 2008 than 2016.

data here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UwC_GapbE3vF6-n1THVbwcXoU_zFvO8jJQL99ouX3Rw/edit?ts=5beae6d4#gid=433702266

[Cinemark]

I know this is lame, but I'm having alot of fun following all these satellite caucuses. I really missed election season.

[Pericles]

So maybe Klobuchar takes the role that was originally going to be Buttigieg's-the candidate for moderate whites (in particular college-educated ones). I doubt it'll be enough for the nomination, but it can damage the other two frontrunners. With Buttigieg, he didn't seem to make an obvious mistake like Warren, but he's clearly fallen from his previous levels-I wonder if he did anything wrong or if making him the nominee was just too big of an ask even with a great campaign (of course this is a bit premature without the full results, for all we know Buttigieg could finish first place in Iowa).

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/ndrnicholas/status/1224466464234713094

Wow, big result for Sanders in Des Moines.

[Queen Isuelt]

I know this is lame, but I'm having alot of fun following all these satellite caucuses. I really missed election season.

This new satellite idea might be the one thing to save caucuses because it put working people or parents with childcare responsibilities at a disadvantage.

[Queen Isuelt]

https://twitter.com/ndrnicholas/status/1224466464234713094

Wow, big result for Sanders in Des Moines.

the metro areas for sanders are going to be blowouts for sanders and i think only warren could compete here.

where will voters go - go home or go to warren or go to sanders.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Biden seems to be collapsing before our eyes. Unless there is just a totally different dynamic in the precinct caucuses, he is in huge trouble.

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/ndrnicholas/status/1224466464234713094

Wow, big result for Sanders in Des Moines.

A question about the rules: if there are 70 voters here, then the cutoff for staying in the game is 11. Buttigieg is at 8, so under the cut-off, but not so far under that he couldn't survive if lower-ranked candidates' supporters were allowed to switch to him. Do Biden/Klobuchar/Yang have the opportunity to support Pete, or are all four candidates under the threshold immediately eliminated, getting to choose between Warren and Sanders?

[RI]

https://twitter.com/ndrnicholas/status/1224466464234713094

Wow, big result for Sanders in Des Moines.

Overall first round results:

90 Sanders (30%)
58 Buttigieg (20%)
55 Klobuchar (19%)
45 Warren (15%)
39 Biden (13%)
  7 Yang (2%)
  2 Steyer (1%)

[We Live in Black and White]

One vote for Biden.

One. F**king. Vote.

[Bidenworth2020]

Biden seems to be collapsing before our eyes. Unless there is just a totally different dynamic in the precinct caucuses, he is in huge trouble.

Do you have any actual proof of this besides a few hundred votes? Not that Biden is strong, but this is presumptuous to say the least.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It's very premature, but I honestly wouldn't be unhappy with Klobuchar if it comes to that in the end. Not my first nor second choice, but far ahead Biden and Buttigieg.

[atheist4thecause]

Why is there an in-state satellite caucus? Is it just for local people who won't be able to attend tonight? If so, why does this group seem to almost uniquely have this type of allowance?

Most are in Iowa.

14 are work-related (typically for those working the swing shift). Many of these are closed to union members.
24 are college-related. Many of the out-of-state caucuses are so-classified, but there are also some in Iowa. Ordinarily you are supposed to caucus where you are registered to vote. There are several at community colleges, perhaps targeted towards those who have evening classes.
29 are accessibility-related. Many are at nursing homes or assisted living or senior centers. These often have an earlier time.
11 are for language and culture groups (e.g. South Sudanese Center in Des Moines).
9 are for wintering Iowans (4 in Florida, 4 in Arizona, 1 in California).

It's also important to remember that the courts have ruled in the past that party nominations are not elections. The Democratic Party doesn't need to do an election at all, they could just pick whatever nominee they wanted without letting the public vote at all. This means that the parties don't have to follow the same rules for fairness.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ndrnicholas/status/1224466464234713094

Wow, big result for Sanders in Des Moines.

Makes sense since this is a university caucus for those with late classes. So if the Florida ones were finger in the  wind for the elderly, and this a finger for the youth, then we are going to see a big age gap tonight.

[2016]

A Klobsurge at Biden's expense in Iowa is great news for Sanders. But if it allows Klobuchar to stay in until Super Tuesday and win Minnesota over Sanders, that might be a net negative for him.

New York Times Iowa Field Reporter Reid Epstein says Caucus Turnout will by all measure eclipse the 240K they had in 2008. If that is even remotely true that's great News for Sanders.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Sanders is going to rack up massive amounts of votes in Johnson county.

Them and Story. Possibly my home county of Black Hawk too if UNI turns out in super large numbers.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Bernie wins 60% in the Des Monies satellite caucus. The only other candidate that is viable is Warren with 20%. For the first round. Now they realign.

Bernie 60.6%
Warren 21.1%
Buttigieg 11.3%
Yang 4.2%
Klobuchar 1.4%

No Biden shown, I guess 0 people for Biden, lol

- edit - I think there was 1 for Biden after all, but it didn't get shown on CNN's screen.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

If Biden flops tonight and Bernie dominates, will we hear about a potential independent Bloomberg run?