Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[RI]

I don't want to read too much into these super tiny early caucuses, but it is a little bit strange that there hasn't been anyone showing up for Biden yet. It'd be kinda funny if he just absolutely blows out every other caucus and ends up winning >30% lol

I imagine Biden's voters will tend to be older and thus be far less likely to need to use a satellite caucus.

[Cinemark]

First round vote so far:

18 Sanders (75%)
  2 Buttigieg (8%)
  2 Klobuchar (8%)
  2 Warren (8%)

Second round vote:

19 Sanders (83%)
  2 Buttigieg (9%)
  2 Klobuchar (9%)

Post deleted by moderator

Please dont.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I mean, it's been a total of <30 people caucusing so far. Remember how often we get weird results in those tiny towns in New Hampshire that vote early?

Dixville Notch is never wrong.

[President Johnson]

It's going to be a Sanders landslide, folks. 2004 all over again. After tonight, we will have a Democratic nominee.

If it's 2004 again, Biden will win. But even in this scenario, he wouldn't be guaranteed to become the nominee.

[atheist4thecause]

Remember that 50% of Iowans were undecided or considering changing as of a day or two ago. Iowa is totally up for grabs, and we can put too much into the polls. The polls are not totally irrelevant, but when so many people are undecided, the polls have no good way to assess the election.

I'm predicting Bernie wins by a little, but I'm not confident. I think Biden will be second, Warren (overperforming) third and Buttigieg (underperforming) fourth. Klobuchar will probably win some delegates, but I don't think anybody else does.

[Queen Isuelt]

why are delegates being announced at small caucus sites.
how do you win a state delegate?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Not a single person in these satellite caucuses has been for Biden so far... Could Biden really end up coming in 4th or even 5th?

It's still the middle of a workday, the main event doesn't start until 7 pm. Let's slow down a little here.

[atheist4thecause]

why are delegates being announced at small caucus sites.
how do you win a state delegate?

There are satellite caucus sites around the world.

[Sestak]

First round vote so far:

18 Sanders (75%)
  2 Buttigieg (8%)
  2 Klobuchar (8%)
  2 Warren (8%)

Second round vote:

19 Sanders (83%)
  2 Buttigieg (9%)
  2 Klobuchar (9%)

I'm not trying to be MAGA TYPE but why are a bunch of ethiopians voting early in Iowa caucus? the optics look terribly. these are the folks backing bernie.

they look like they just came from the back of a lorry via mexico.

The virgin MAGA Chud vs the Chad Ethopian Meatpacker

[President Johnson]

Remember that 50% of Iowans were undecided or considering changing as of a day or two ago. Iowa is totally up for grabs, and we can put too much into the polls. The polls are not totally irrelevant, but when so many people are undecided, the polls have no good way to assess the election.

I'm predicting Bernie wins by a little, but I'm not confident. I think Biden will be second, Warren (overperforming) third and Buttigieg (underperforming) fourth. Klobuchar will probably win some delegates, but I don't think anybody else does.

Yeah, MSNBC also showed a poll than no candidate had more than 75% of their supporters locked. It was 74% in Bernie's case and all others in the high 60s. However, I do think Bernie has this one and Biden won't do well. Better keep low expectations here. Also, Mayor Pete still has a shot at winning.

[Queen Isuelt]

why are delegates being announced at small caucus sites.
how do you win a state delegate?

There are satellite caucus sites around the world.

iowa only has 42 delegates to offer.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What would happen if someone had to use the restroom while caucusing, would they wait for the next round?

[Gass3268]

why are delegates being announced at small caucus sites.
how do you win a state delegate?

There are satellite caucus sites around the world.

iowa only has 42 delegates to offer.

There are like 4 different layers of delegates.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't mix up your delegate types.

11,402 county convention delegates are awarded proportionally on the basis of the results of the 1678 precinct caucuses and 99 satelite caucuses, and they will go to their local county convention on March 21, 2020, to choose 2,107 District and State Delegates (SDE) for the district conventions on April 25 (selecting the 27 pledged congressional district delegates) and state Democratic convention on June 13 (selecting the remaining 9 pledged at-large delegates and 5 pledged PLEO delegates). In total, 41 pledged delegates will hereby be elected for the 2020 Democratic National Convention on the basis of the State Delegate Equivalents (SDE).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Procedure

[jimrtex]

Finally, the 2020 election begins! Aren’t we going to be getting results from Tbilisi at noon? Or will those not be available until the caucus sites close within the state itself? Also, what county/CD will those be counted in?

Each satellite caucus forms a virtual precinct. They allocate county delegates, but don't actually choose county delegates. Participants may volunteer to serve as state delegates (state delegates serve at both CD conventions and the state convention).

The satellite caucuses in each CD form a virtual county. No county convention is held. The number of allocated delegates for each presidential preference can be totaled, viability determined, viability applied, and the number of state delegates calculated. The presidential candidates will choose the actual state delegates from the volunteers.

The out-of-state caucuses will also form a virtual county, but they will only choose delegates to the state convention.

The number of county and state delegates is dynamic based on attendance. More attendees, there will be more county and state delegates.

Logically, there would be reports for 99 actual counties, and 5 virtual counties.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The caucus in Paris, France is delayed. Per other tweets, there are supporters for Bernie and at least one for Buttigieg there, other candidates were not mentioned (although someone said they wanted to "vote for a woman," they didn't say which woman):

https://twitter.com/charli/status/1224419840242409473

Charli James
@charli
Because of miscommunication on start time for the Paris satellite Iowa caucus, they are starting over at 9pm local time. The event had initially been scheduled for 9pm and some people didn’t get the change to 8pm. #IowaCaucus
1:50 PM · Feb 3, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

[Gass3268]

Le Caucus!

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1224420315951964162?s=20

[Queen Isuelt]

https://twitter.com/IowaSOS/status/1224363070157475840

current registered voters in iowa broken down by cd.

[Queen Isuelt]

Don't mix up your delegate types.

11,402 county convention delegates are awarded proportionally on the basis of the results of the 1678 precinct caucuses and 99 satelite caucuses, and they will go to their local county convention on March 21, 2020, to choose 2,107 District and State Delegates (SDE) for the district conventions on April 25 (selecting the 27 pledged congressional district delegates) and state Democratic convention on June 13 (selecting the remaining 9 pledged at-large delegates and 5 pledged PLEO delegates). In total, 41 pledged delegates will hereby be elected for the 2020 Democratic National Convention on the basis of the State Delegate Equivalents (SDE).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Procedure

so how do you qualify for a debate via delegates? yang klobuchar buttigieg?

[Sestak]

[transcription]

Le Caucus!

Iowa Starting Line
@IAStartingLine
The satellite caucus in Paris, France is getting underway. Here are some photos provided by one of Starting Line’s foreign correspondents

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter
81
1:52 PM - Feb 3, 2020

[Sestak]

[transcription]

Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate
✔
@IowaSOS
Just ahead of the #IowaCaucus, here are Iowa's latest voter registration totals. We have 2,006,370 active registered voters in the state. You can find our voter registration stats, both current and historical, by clicking here:  https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterreg/regstat.html … #BeAVoter

View image on Twitter
13
10:04 AM - Feb 3, 2020

current registered voters in iowa broken down by cd.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Overreactions to initial results... this is the Atlas I know and love.

Don't forget tip #3!

These tips are frankly useless. To provide some real guidance to this forum, here are GRIFF'S PATENTED 10 TIPS FOR SURVIVING ELECTION DAY

1. DO stay up all night on Election Eve. You can sleep when it's over. The more hours you're awake, the more prescient you become at discerning every morsel of Election Day information.

2. DON'T reign in expectations: after all, the Election Gods only give luck to those who dream for the sky!

3. DO overreact to every morsel of preliminary turnout data, including long/short lines, appearance of voters in line, turnout as a share of the previous election at a precinct during any portion of the day, and other observations. A good format to make you sound like an expert:

"Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]"

4. DON'T wait for the final exit polling data to drop at 7 PM: rather, latch onto reports from the preliminary exit polls at 5 PM and reassure yourself that this is definitely reflective of the final result.

5. DO let weather forecasts and reports allow you to draw big conclusions about the outcome. After all, thunderstorms mean Democrats lose by 40 points, hot weather makes old Republicans wilt in place, people used to snow and ice don't vote in snow and ice, etc.

6. DON'T wait around for an accurate representation of precincts to begin reporting votes before calling the race; instead, DO make broad proclamations about the race at 8 PM when Democrats are losing GA by 30 points and 7% of the vote has been counted.

7. DO attend Election Night watch parties and DO bring every mobile device you have, and remain glued to them rather than socializing with your peers.

8. DON'T take anything Wolf "Wow!" Blitzer has to say at face value. Seriously.

9. DO consume as many stimulants and mood-lifting substances as you can get your hands on throughout the day; especially when combined with #1, you'll be at peak performance just in time for poll closings.

10. DON'T behave rationally at the end of the night, win or lose. Close things out after hours of arguing with opposition supporters on social media by passing out in a pool of drool on your desk.

[Skunk]

I will be at work all night tonight so unfortunately I will not be able to refresh this thread and New York Times articles twenty times per minute. Please have me in y'all's thoughts!

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

can someone explain me how all this works

[soundchaser]

can someone explain me how all this works

That would be a "no."

(What part are you having trouble with?)