Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[KaiserDave]

My preferred candidate is still Warren

JFC

As I've said before, I don't know or care what the current beef between her and Sanders is. I've seen nothing to change my belief that it's BS ginned up to weaken both of them.

I'm surprised that you support Elizabeth "Capitalist to my bones" Warren regardless of that incident.

(not the target of this post but replying anyways)

From a socialist perspective I see your point, but for me that's delicious.

[Dr. Arch]

So Bernie ended up winning the SDEs too?

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1225615234196557825

[RI]

Warren now wins Sioux County's first round vote, her only such county. Not the one I would've expected.

[Gass3268]

Wow! Reuters actually decided to call the race.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1225609106767187969?s=20

Not good!

[Tender Branson]

Finally, 100% reported.

LOL.

Pete "wins" by 1.5 delegate equivalents.

https://results.thecaucuses.org

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow! Reuters actually decided to call the race.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1225609106767187969?s=20

Not good!

I remember when Florida got called for both Gore and Bush on election night 2000. The media doesn't determine who won.

[Tintrlvr]

Warren now wins Sioux County's first round vote, her only such county. Not the one I would've expected.

Interesting that Warren won SDEs in one county and first alignment votes in one county, but they were different counties.

And I guess in retrospect it's not that surprising. What Democrats are there in a place like Sioux County other than a handful of well-off, highly educated liberal transplants (doctors, lawyers, etc.)?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

My preferred candidate is still Warren

JFC

As I've said before, I don't know or care what the current beef between her and Sanders is. I've seen nothing to change my belief that it's BS ginned up to weaken both of them.

I'm surprised that you support Elizabeth "Capitalist to my bones" Warren regardless of that incident.

When and in what context did she say that? Genuine question--I've been relatively low-information through most of this primary season so far due to personal drama.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Bernie has joined Joe Biden in the exclusive club of people who lost the Iowa caucus twice.

How long have you been waiting to use that line?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bernie has joined Joe Biden in the exclusive club of people who lost the Iowa caucus twice.

Maybe Warren will actually win something one of these days

[Sorenroy]

Wow! Reuters actually decided to call the race.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1225609106767187969?s=20

Not good!

I remember when Florida got called for both Gore and Bush on election night 2000. The media doesn't determine who won.

In a sequential, momentum based race? It absolutely does. This thread hasn't gone on for 150 pages because of a delegate here or there at the eventual Democratic convention. It's irresponsible for Reuters to do this, and would be even if news and momentum didn't play so heavily in this race.

[YE]

This was a stolen ****ing election.

Come on, you're better than this.

I don't think it was purposefully "stolen" but there does appear to be some clear discrepancies pointed out by the Sanders campaign and Sanders supporters like myself to a large extent have legit reason to be frustrated over this. Of course, this be more credible if said supporters didn't whine anytime anything contradicted Bernie's semi-unrepresentative 40% and 60% numbers. Now, there's bound to be some sort of "boy who cried wolf" effect.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This was a stolen ****ing election.

Come on, you're better than this.

I don't think it was purposefully "stolen" but there does appear to be some clear discrepancies pointed out by the Sanders campaign and Sanders supporters like myself to a large extent have legit reason to be frustrated over this. Of course, this be more credible if said supporters didn't whine anytime anything contradicted Bernie's semi-unrepresentative 40% and 60% numbers. Now, there's bound to be some sort of "boy who cried wolf" effect.

Fair enough, but I do genuinely think Pete more likely than not won the caucus.  That said, Sanders still did pretty well and I think both campaigns have plenty to be happy about.  

[We Live in Black and White]

Wow! Reuters actually decided to call the race.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1225609106767187969?s=20

Not good!

I remember when Florida got called for both Gore and Bush on election night 2000. The media doesn't determine who won.

In a sequential, momentum based race? It absolutely does. This thread hasn't gone on for 150 pages because of a delegate here or there at the eventual Democratic convention. It's irresponsible for Reuters to do this, and would be even if news and momentum didn't play so heavily in this race.

I still maintain that this is a hysterically stupid play by the DNC, if that's what they're actually doing. Buttigieg is in no way going to be able to secure the nomination, and Biden isn't coming back from Iowa. Meanwhile, Sanders is almost a lock for New Hampshire and has raced to a lead in national polling.

This is stupid all around.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Here are some interesting statistics about the electorate:

https://twitter.com/gabrielwinant/status/1225546373224902663

Key to winning back poor(er) voters

Very much misunderstands what these two poll questions indicate. Bernie's "poor" voters in this case are exclusively recent college grads and, in the U25K category, current college students, or poor minorities who would never vote for Trump.

Trump's worse off people are probably still over 50k in income and many may be over 75k due to age. Many may have been more hurt on declining industries or small businesses faltering.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/dnc-chairman-tom-perez-calls-iowa-democratic-party-180500774.html

How many people are going to see this and NOT think that the Democratic Party establishment is going to block Sanders at any cost?

[NOVA Green]

All of this clusterf**k around the IA Caucuses and the who "won" on the basis of SDEs, and literally fractions of delegates assignation, with all of the irregularities when the popular vote is clear, reminds me a bit from a Doctor Who Story of the 5th Doctor Peter Davison era from early '83....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlightenment_(Doctor_Who)

In fact I just finished watching the story Wednesday Night, and one of the final scenes may be of interest or at least a minor diversion from the crapshow of the IA Caucuses, which once again divides not unites at a time where the Democratic Candidates all agree on a lot more than they disagree on, especially in contrast with the current President and his sycophants.

Although perhaps it is slightly off-topic, this clip does start towards the finale of Episode 4 between the Black and White Guardians:

"Will the Victor Receive his Prize?"

If one watches the clip, one could certainly see why there are items which do appear topical, albeit not as intense as many of the sentiments posted by some of this very thread, especially if you were to look at it from a metaphorical viewpoint within the context of the IA Caucuses, where "winning" does not mean "winning".

Next post might be slightly more topical but on a different note.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This was a stolen ****ing election.

Come on, you're better than this.

I don't think it was purposefully "stolen" but there does appear to be some clear discrepancies pointed out by the Sanders campaign and Sanders supporters like myself to a large extent have legit reason to be frustrated over this. Of course, this be more credible if said supporters didn't whine anytime anything contradicted Bernie's semi-unrepresentative 40% and 60% numbers. Now, there's bound to be some sort of "boy who cried wolf" effect.

Fair enough, but I do genuinely think Pete more likely than not won the caucus.  That said, Sanders still did pretty well and I think both campaigns have plenty to be happy about.  

“Won” based on lopsided representation in areas that haven’t voted Democrat in a decade?

[Ljube]

This was a stolen ****ing election.

Come on, you're better than this.

I don't think it was purposefully "stolen" but there does appear to be some clear discrepancies pointed out by the Sanders campaign and Sanders supporters like myself to a large extent have legit reason to be frustrated over this. Of course, this be more credible if said supporters didn't whine anytime anything contradicted Bernie's semi-unrepresentative 40% and 60% numbers. Now, there's bound to be some sort of "boy who cried wolf" effect.

Then Sanders can request a recount.
But I bet he won't.
And let me tell you why.
Because he is only talking about those "discrepancies" which apparently hurt him. Not about those which benefit him.

The fact that he doesn't want to request a recount shows that he is either not sure that he would be declared winner after the recount, or sure that he wouldn't be.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

This was a stolen ****ing election.

Come on, you're better than this.

Maybe not a stolen election, but there's willful manipulation of the results from CNN to serve an agenda. These bastards know what the **** they're doing.

[jimrtex]

What I don't understand is why can't the SDE all be centralized? Just have each county report their First and Final results, then have an HQ do the SDE calculation, possibly all at once. And, even if you are going to have the precincts/counties do the calculations, why have an app to do it rather than a website everybody can access? Or have the app but use a website as a backup that is simple and just has a SDE calculator. Then if the app and website are both down, there can be the call-in system (hopefully better staffed than this year). I mean, this doesn't seem complicated at all. I'm guessing the call-in system was there for the inevitable people that couldn't figure out how to use the app rather than it failing for nearly everyone.

The calculation of SDE is centralized.

Each voter is registered when they enter.

Ballot cards are handed out as the voters are counted. Voters are instructed not to fill out the ballot cards (some probably did). The count is written down on the worksheet, and viability calculated. That number is announced.

The voters then gather in preference groups. They fill out their preference, and the groups are counted. Anyone in the group could observe the count. That number was written down, and groups that are viable are determined. The voters in those groups hand their ballot card over to the groups leader, and are locked in (it is possible that some voters who preferred Warren, ended up in the Buttigieg group, and wrote Sanders on their card - this most likely happened on college campuses. 75 YO housewives with an 8th grade education are smarter than that).

Voters in viable groups are locked in, and may leave since they are locked in (some go to the restroom, and when they return join another precinct caucus at the same site).

Voters in the non-viable groups then realign. They may join viable groups; join another non-viable group to make it viable; or create a new viable group. After the realignment, voters who move write their second choice on their ballot card. The groups are counted, and the group leader collects all the cards.

The precinct leader announces the group counts, and calculates the number of county delegates for each group.

All these numbers:
(1) Precinct headcount, and viability threshold;
(2) Initial alignments counts, and viability determination;
(3) Final alignment counts;
(4) Allocation of delegates to preference groups;

Are reported on a paper worksheet. These numbers were to be reported to the state party using the app. The app might also have done the calculations. But they might have been calculated by hand or a calculator.

SDE's are calculated based on the delegate allocation, but are not calculated at the precinct, and it is a trivial calculation.

The delegates have to be elected by the members of the preference groups. That is the actual business of the caucus -- to choose the precincts delegates to the county convention. The numbers are just to document that it was done properly.

[KaiserDave]

My preferred candidate is still Warren

JFC

As I've said before, I don't know or care what the current beef between her and Sanders is. I've seen nothing to change my belief that it's BS ginned up to weaken both of them.

I'm surprised that you support Elizabeth "Capitalist to my bones" Warren regardless of that incident.

When and in what context did she say that? Genuine question--I've been relatively low-information through most of this primary season so far due to personal drama.

It's her political philosophy

But most often saying that in the context of protecting free markets from corporate consolidation

[jimrtex]

IA is also not at all like the Electoral College, because it isn't based on population and the SDEs assigned can vary quite wildly for areas of identical population (or even registered voters).

SDE's are apportioned on the basis of votes cast for Democratic candidates in 2016 and 2018. This is far superior to the use of population.

Votes cast should be use for apportioning congressional and legislative districts.

[Pyro]

Time for Pete to lose his Iowa "victory" credence for the third time

https://twitter.com/adamkelsey/status/1225615439109197824