2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The speed with which the Nationals have descended from NZ's "natural" (and indeed seemingly almost unassailable) party of government to little more than a rabble, is genuinely astonishing.

Another point against the default political analyst assumption that tomorrow will always and inevitably look exactly like today.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On the one hand, when polls show leads of 'this meteorite will destroy all life on Earth' proportions they are nearly always massive exaggerations. On the other, well, such polling does tend to mean the only question is the scale of the landslide not whether it will happen or not.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If current polling resembles the actual results, which electorate seats would National be likely to hold on to?

Current polling suggests a swing of about 21pts (!) so not many.

National seats with majorities over 40pts last time were Hunua (47.8), East Coast Bays (47.0), Selwyn (45.1), Rodney (43.9), Pakuranga (41.9), Taranaki-King Country (41.8), Tāmaki (40.7)

Those just under 40pts: Clutha-Southland (39.4), Waikato (38.6), Helensville (37.8), Botany (37.0).

Hunua has been abolished: most of it has gone to the new Port Waikato (which would presumably have a similarly mountainous notional lead), most of the rest to Papakura (which should consequentially be a bit 'safer'). Waikato is also significantly different, though the majority probably isn't hugely different.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those figures for Chinese voters are interesting to compare with what's known in Britain, where the proportion voting for the conservative party of record is even higher but the overall number voting is a lot lower.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Said it before, I don't think the Nationals ever really came to terms with losing power.

Yes, this is accurate. They had managed to convince themselves that they would never again lose power, so were not remotely prepared for it psychologically.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Impressive. Some interesting electorate results - Rangitata (the largest town of which is Timaru) flipping is interesting, because that's real Old Labour (so to speak) territory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Impressive. Some interesting electorate results - Rangitata (the largest town of which is Timaru) flipping is interesting, because that's real Old Labour (so to speak) territory.

Is that the Maori win?

No, it's the Labour gain between Christchurch and Dunedin. Back under the old electoral system, when it had a constituency all to itself, Timaru was notable for swinging hard against first Rogernomics (lost for the first time since the 1920s in a by-election in 1985 and not regained at the 1987 election) and then the doubling-down of this agenda by the Nationals in the 90s (one of Labour's gains in 1993). The last time it has had Labour representation until now was when it was part of the Aoraki constituency, which was lost heavily by a scandal-plagued incumbent in 2005. As Rangitata it had given the Nationals some very large majorities during the Key era.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also of note: Labour finally oust Nick Smith (a landslide fluke* who stayed in office so long that he ended up as Father of the House) at Nelson.

_{*First elected for Tasman in Labour's annus horribilis - defeating one of the Douglasites in what had been Bill Rowling's constituency - before following many of his electors to the expanded Nelson in 1996 when Tasman was abolished due to the cut in constituencies necessitated by the new electoral system.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not that big of a fluke, Labour won the party vote in Nelson in 2017 and he benefitted from a split left vote.

I mean that his initial victory was a fluke: that the fluke was him