2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Seems to be in line with a lot of the previous polling we’ve seen. National being under 30 would be amazing. Collins will probably get the boot by the end of the year if that holds.

[Pericles]

Seems to be in line with a lot of the previous polling we’ve seen. National being under 30 would be amazing. Collins will probably get the boot by the end of the year if that holds.

Maybe, yeah. She said she'd stay on, but one of her own MPs is already undermining her-telling the media that "At the end of the day, it's not her who decides". It seems that internally the bar is set as a party vote of 35% or higher being a success. It might be sensible for National to have a period of reflection after the election though, and maybe they want someone who is relatively new to parliament to be their next leader. So I'm guessing that it might be sensible not to roll Collins immediately but sort out the leadership issue next year, though it's pretty unclear and early.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Said it before, I don't think the Nationals ever really came to terms with losing power.

Yes, this is accurate. They had managed to convince themselves that they would never again lose power, so were not remotely prepared for it psychologically.

[Pericles]

Said it before, I don't think the Nationals ever really came to terms with losing power.

Yes, this is accurate. They had managed to convince themselves that they would never again lose power, so were not remotely prepared for it psychologically.

And that they have been so hung up about the 'unfairness' of losing as the largest party.

[skbl17]

There's a new 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll (changes compared to the previous Colmar Brunton poll):

- LAB: 47% (-1%)
- NAT: 33% (+2%)
- ACT: 8% (+1%)
- GRN: 7% (+1%)
- NZF: 1% (-1%)
- New Conservative: 1% (-1%)
- TOP: 1%
- Māori: 1%
- Advance NZ: 1%
- Undecided/refused to answer: 11% (-3%)

Translated to seats:
- LAB: 59
- NAT: 43
- ACT: 10
- GRN: 8

Notably, this is the first poll taken since March to show Labour falling short of winning a majority of seats. There's still a solid chance of Labour forming a majority government when all is said and done, but I'm starting to get 2014 vibes from this election, when National was in a majority-winning position for a while but ultimately came up one seat short of a majority government.

[Pericles]

That's an interesting poll. As an additional detail, the preferred Prime Minister numbers are Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 23% (+5%).

The number that sticks out to me is the combined National and ACT vote, which is 41% and would be entitled to 53 seats. That is down just 4% and 4 seats after the last election, which seems pretty impressive given it's a first-term government, Covid, and National's internal struggles that have made clear they are absolutely not a 'strong team'. To be fair, the vote for other parties is a lot less, and Labour and the Greens combined are still on 54% (unchanged from the last poll, up 11% from the 2017 election). It is also just one poll so currently an outlier, the previous Colmar Brunton poll was 38%-54% and Newshub was 35.9%-56.6%. Finally, polling does tend to slightly overestimate National's vote compared to Labour's in New Zealand.

However, maybe, just maybe, there is a narrow path for National to win, or at least for it to be close. The trend is slightly concerning for Labour, its vote may get squeezed as National rebounds and the Greens simultaneously surge as progressives resist a Labour majority. I don't think there's particularly much that Labour can do about the latter threat. So they need to work on minimizing the National vote. They should keep emphasizing National's fiscal holes to lock in their new edge as economically competent (the Newshub poll shows Labour has a 20-point lead on economic competence). A National Party led government would be a disaster for New Zealand because they clearly plan to embark on a policy of austerity, when their nine years of neglect already left our public services underfunded. Labour needs to get a good contrast here, hopefully Jacinda shows up more in mind as well as body in the next debate (though the debates probably don't matter either way). Labour should also emphasize ACT's extreme policy stances, now that it's clear that ACT will be a key part of a National government and to fire back at National's fearmongering about a Labour-Green coalition. It probably won't work though as ACT's surge is probably too late for many people to factor them in. I've also seen a suggestion that Labour could try engineer tactical voting by National voters by getting them to vote Labour so Labour wins a majority rather than needing the Greens, if they think (as they probably do) that National can't win. I'm not sure if it's possible to pull off though, and most people probably would rather not have a majority government.

[Polkergeist]

How eager is Labour to govern on its own if it wins an outright majority by itself?

In the long term they will need coalition partners again when (presumably) normal party support levels reassert themselves in 2023.

Also by cutting the Greens loose they allow an opposition party on their left. Two front fights are never easy.

[brucejoel99]

If nothing else, it's gonna be fascinating to watch the trouble that'll result from ACT going from 1 MP to 10 first-time MP's. At least David Seymour has his head screwed on in a political sense, but he'll be spending the next 3 years putting out fires left & right if 9 others get in. Hell, they probably didn't even give the list rankings much thought as they were still polling on like ~1-2% when they made it.

And ngl, ACT's rise kinda reminds me of United Future in 2002 when it also suddenly gained several MPs, only for the party to fracture over the course of the next few elections.

[Pericles]

If nothing else, it's gonna be fascinating to watch the trouble that'll result from ACT going from 1 MP to 10 first-time MP's. At least David Seymour has his head screwed on in a political sense, but he'll be spending the next 3 years putting out fires left & right if 9 others get in. Hell, they probably didn't even give the list rankings much thought as they were still polling on like ~1-2% when they made it.

And ngl, ACT's rise kinda reminds me of United Future in 2002 when it also suddenly gained several MPs, only for the party to fracture over the course of the next few elections.

Here is their current list. It's notable that only 20 candidates are ranked, and they have had to run several university students on their list. Their #3, Nicole McKee, is a gun rights activist who opposed the gun reform passed after the Christchurch mass shooting. I don't know what the others are like.

[mileslunn]

How much of ACT rise is over gun ban?  My understanding is ACT is only party committed to repealing gun ban and while National was right to support it as would have been very tone deaf not too, the minority in gun community tend to put that is number one issue and will switch over just that issue.  Its why One Nation Party after 1996 ban in Australia jumped to 8% and in countries with first past post like Canada and US, its why Conservatives and Republicans won't touch issue for fear of splitting party.  UK different story, but gun ownership is so low there, not same risk as in other four English speaking countries.

Still overall I think barring a major misstep Ardern should get a second term.  Real question is does she form a majority on her own or have to turn to Green Party.  National + ACT getting majority seems very unlikely.

[Pericles]

How much of ACT rise is over gun ban?  My understanding is ACT is only party committed to repealing gun ban and while National was right to support it as would have been very tone deaf not too, the minority in gun community tend to put that is number one issue and will switch over just that issue.  Its why One Nation Party after 1996 ban in Australia jumped to 8% and in countries with first past post like Canada and US, its why Conservatives and Republicans won't touch issue for fear of splitting party.  UK different story, but gun ownership is so low there, not same risk as in other four English speaking countries.

Still overall I think barring a major misstep Ardern should get a second term.  Real question is does she form a majority on her own or have to turn to Green Party.  National + ACT getting majority seems very unlikely.

ACT's rise is partly due to the gun ban, partly due to David Seymour's increased profile from his End of Life Choice Bill (and he also performed on Dancing with the Stars in 2018), and partly from National's struggles.

[mileslunn]

I cannot see National + ACT getting majority of seats.  Only way I could see National winning is if New Zealand First gets above 5% as they take from both sides and Winston Peters decides to support National this time as he has supported both parties at different times.  But that seems highly unlikely.  While nothing is certain, I think there is a greater than 95% chance Ardern is re-elected.  Bigger question is does she govern alone or have to rely on the Green Party.  I am guessing Labour would rather go alone as isn't Green party to the left of Labour thus would push party more to the left which could hurt their chances in 2023?

[Pericles]

I was worried that the Greens would underpoll and fall below 5% as a result, making it Labour vs National + ACT combined. The recent polls suggest this is unlikely though, even if the Greens can't win an electorate seat in Auckland Central.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

We got a Maori electorate poll!

Te Tai Hauāuru electorate
(western North Island, eg New Plymouth, Whanganui, and Palmerston North)

Party Preference
Labour 51%
Maori 10%
National 4%
Green 4%
NZ First 3%
ACT 2%
TOP 1%

Candidate Preference
Adrian Rurawhe (Labour) 38%
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer (Maori) 20%
Noeline Apiata (Advance) 1%

Still lots of undecideds, especially for the local candidates.

Edit: Here’s the history of the electorate:
1996 - Tuku Morgan (NZ First, then Mauri Pacific)
1999 - Nanaia Mahuta (Labour) (incumbent came in third; Labour gain)
2002 - Tariana Turia (Labour) (incumbent changed electorates; open seat)
2004-By - Tariana Turia (Maori) (incumbent left Labour and contested by-election with new party; Maori gain)
2005 - Tariana Turia (Maori)
2008 - Tariana Turia (Maori)
2011 - Tariana Turia (Maori)
2014 - Adrian Rurawhe (Labour) (incumbent retired; open seat, Labour gain)
2017 - Adrian Rurawhe (Labour)

The Maori Party has managed to keep the electorate race somewhat close, and they may do better than polling suggests, given the high number of undecideds. Rurawhe is the great-grandson of T. W. Ratana, the founder of the Ratana Church, a Maori-inspired Christian denomination with about 45,000 members, or about 1% of NZ.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Could more knowledgeable people explain to me why the Maori Party was founded and why after a good run it slumped and lost all seats at the last election?

[warandwar]

Could more knowledgeable people explain to me why the Maori Party was founded and why after a good run it slumped and lost all seats at the last election?

They were founded after the foreshore and seabed issue, when the Labour government decided to take away land that Maoris had a right to. Despite Don Brash running a pro-apartheid campaign, the Maori Party had a secret deal with him and they became closely tied to National.

[Tender Branson]

Ardern's support was always massively overblown ...

As if Conservatives suddenly decided to vote Labour in droves ...

[CumbrianLefty]

Ardern's support was always massively overblown ...

As if Conservatives suddenly decided to vote Labour in droves ...

Never likely Labour were going to score anything like 60% in an actual election, agreed.

But it is still possible the Nationals could be heading for a historic drubbing.

And if so, it would be *totally* deserved.

[Pericles]

Also, the nail in the coffin probably came for NZ First yesterday. Two people (name suppression is being used, which is pretty common here) have been charged by the Serious Fraud Office over the NZ First Foundation, which was funnelling donations to the party in a dodgy way to get around electoral laws. Winston tried to suppress the announcement until after the election, but failed.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Also, the nail in the coffin probably came for NZ First yesterday. Two people (name suppression is being used, which is pretty common here) have been charged by the Serious Fraud Office over the NZ First Foundation, which was funnelling donations to the party in a dodgy way to get around electoral laws. Winston tried to suppress the announcement until after the election, but failed.

Good night, sweet prince. I’ll miss WINston’s meme magic.

[Pericles]

Newshub's referendum numbers;

Cannabis referendum:
No-50.5%
Yes-37.9%

End of Life Choice Act referendum:
Yes-61.6%
No-25.5%

It's sad and pretty weird how New Zealand seems set to reject legalising cannabis.

Also, we just had the second leader's debate. Jacinda brought a lot more energy and I think she won it by a bit this time. Both did pretty well, weirdly Judith Collins did defend Trump by pointing out he didn't start any wars so he's better than other recent Presidents in that regard. Here is some more info on the debate-https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300119570/election-2020-live-judith-collins-jacinda-ardern-clash-on-climate-change-covid19-but-agree-on-fouryear-term

[Pericles]

Lol, this is pretty cool. Mark Richardson "thinking about voting Labour". In case you don't know, Mark Richardson is an outspoken right-winger and National Party supporter (and a former NZ cricketer).

"The reason I'm doing this is because I've almost conceded defeat to Labour and I can handle them governing alone. If you are a centre-right voter right now, you're going 'look, I don't think even with a little bit of tide moving towards National and ACT it's not going to be enough, I think, to stop Labour getting back into Government'. But the stronger the right gets right now, the more it brings the Green Party back into the picture. So in a weird way if National grow their party vote and Labour are forced to govern with the Greens, you end up with a more left-liberal Government than Labour governing alone. That is a real conundrum for a right-centre voter right now."

That is a good sign for the tactical voting phenomenon I mentioned earlier to occur, though I don't know whether people like Richardson will actually come over to Labour. It might depend on what the next few polls say.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Newshub's referendum numbers;

Cannabis referendum:
No-50.5%
Yes-37.9%

End of Life Choice Act referendum:
Yes-61.6%
No-25.5%

It's sad and pretty weird how New Zealand seems set to reject legalising cannabis.

Wow. My opinion of New Zealand has gone down after this (on both counts). Sad!

[I guess I can more than console myself with the incoming Labour landslide though]

[mileslunn]

Newshub's referendum numbers;

Cannabis referendum:
No-50.5%
Yes-37.9%

End of Life Choice Act referendum:
Yes-61.6%
No-25.5%

It's sad and pretty weird how New Zealand seems set to reject legalising cannabis.

Wow. My opinion of New Zealand has gone down after this (on both counts). Sad!

[I guess I can more than console myself with the incoming Labour landslide though]

Marijuana legalization generally unpopular in most countries.  North America is sort of anomaly as in both Canada and US legalization is popular, but a lot of that has to do with counterculture movement in 60s which was much stronger there and thus marijuana use much more widespread.  US unlike NZ has a strong libertarian culture and generally tends to dislike government rules just in general.  Its why they are struggling so much with COVID-19 and you have many anti-maskers.  Canada doesn't have the libertarian culture US does, but we are sort of an odd mix as very liberal on social issues, probably second most in world after Netherlands, but on economic policy more centrist like New Zealand, not small government free market like US is. 

[skbl17]

Apparently, Reid Research conducted a poll of Auckland Central (the inner city Auckland seat being vacated by National's Nikki Kaye at this election):

- Helen White (Labour): 42.3%
- Emma Mellow (National): 26.6%
- Chloe Swarbrick (Green): 24.2%
- Undecided: 20.7%

Colmar Brunton just polled Auckland Central, and things look tighter compared to the Reid Research poll:

- Helen White (Labour): 35%
- Emma Mellow (National): 30%
- Chloe Swarbrick (Green): 26%
- Felix Poole (ACT): 4%
- Vernon Tava (Sustainable NZ): 2%
- Others: 2%
- Undecided: 9%

Party vote in the electorate (changes with last election):

- Labour: 47% (+9%)
- National: 28% (-11%)
- Green: 13% (-)
- ACT: 6% (+5%)
- TOP: 2.2% (-0.94%)
- NZ First: 1.7% (-1.1%)