2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[skbl17]

Apparently, Reid Research conducted a poll of Auckland Central (the inner city Auckland seat being vacated by National's Nikki Kaye at this election):

- Helen White (Labour): 42.3%
- Emma Mellow (National): 26.6%
- Chloe Swarbrick (Green): 24.2%
- Undecided: 20.7%

[Pericles]

Very interesting poll, though not too surprising. I just saw Swarbrick spinning the poll as showing it's "a three-way race" lol.

Well, given how infinitesimally small the COVID numbers are in New Zealand, it seemed pretty ridiculous to postpone the election, but I guess it won't change very much in the end. I'm looking forward to this!

Perhaps, we have gone four consecutive days without community transmission again. Though they didn't know this at the time. If the campaign had gone ahead and the numbers had remained the same, it might have been unfair as Auckland would have been in lockdown for much of the campaign. I did think the delay was a politically motivated demand by National and NZ First, but it probably won't matter in the end (or as I pointed out earlier, could end up saving the Green party instead).

EDIT; Another interesting feature of the poll was the party vote figures for the electorate. Here are the numbers, with the change from 2017 in brackets; Labour 56.2% (+18.4%), National 23.1% (-16.4%), Green 12.1% (-1.8%), ACT 3.9% (+2.8%) and NZ First 1.6% (-2.3%). That does suggest a Labour landslide nationwide, perhaps a huge majority-though I do expect that the swing will be greater than the nationwide one in electorates like this (and electorate polls are less reliable than nationwide polls anyway).

[mileslunn]

How strict is the lockdown and what is public reaction?  New Zealand is having new cases in single digits daily so quite low compared to other similar sized jurisdictions.  I live in British Columbia, Canada and we have similar population to New Zealand yet over 100 cases a day.  In Europe, New Zealand has similar populations to Norway, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, and Slovakia and all of those generally have over 50 a day and except Norway and Finland, others are over 200 a day.  In US, states with similar populations also multiple hundred a day.  Granted I am sure no one in New Zealand wants those kind of numbers, but would have thought some would be saying, no need for any lockdowns as so low compared to others.  Only problem is many listed were similar to New Zealand back in June thus there is that worry although heading into summer vs. fall probably lessens it.

[Pericles]

How strict is the lockdown and what is public reaction?  New Zealand is having new cases in single digits daily so quite low compared to other similar sized jurisdictions.  I live in British Columbia, Canada and we have similar population to New Zealand yet over 100 cases a day.  In Europe, New Zealand has similar populations to Norway, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, and Slovakia and all of those generally have over 50 a day and except Norway and Finland, others are over 200 a day.  In US, states with similar populations also multiple hundred a day.  Granted I am sure no one in New Zealand wants those kind of numbers, but would have thought some would be saying, no need for any lockdowns as so low compared to others.  Only problem is many listed were similar to New Zealand back in June thus there is that worry although heading into summer vs. fall probably lessens it.

None of New Zealand is in lockdown anymore. There are some social distancing requirements (gatherings limited to 100 or less nationwide and stricter limits in Auckland) and stuff like mandatory masks on public transport, people are supposed to scan the CovidTracer app (and businesses are required to display QR codes for it). The main question is whether the rest of the country can eliminate all restrictions on gatherings and distancing (and perhaps get rid of mandatory masks too), so going back to level 1. This is because the whole cluster so far has been in Auckland only. The decision on that is due tomorrow afternoon. There was however a weird case today-https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122827196/coronavirus-two-new-community-cases-of-covid19-not-linked-to-the-auckland-cluster This person may have had an extremely long incubation period, or could have gotten it in Christchurch (which is more worrying). I'm not sure what the government's reaction to this is but my initial thoughts are that Christchurch may have to keep the current restrictions too.

[Pericles]

The National Party campaign launch was a bit of a disaster-https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12366421 In an ironic echo of the alleged $11.7 billion hole Labour had last election (except this hole was real), National made a $4 billion miscalculation in its alternative budget and its finance spokesperson-Paul Goldsmith-was forced to apologise. This mistake helps Labour's attempts to replace National as the best perceived economic manager.

[Pericles]

Everywhere except Auckland is moving back to level one-no domestic Covid restrictions like mandatory masks on public transport or limits on gatherings. Auckland will remain at level 2 so there will still be limits on mass gatherings. With regards to the election, the nightmare scenario for Labour has been prevented and this should seal the deal for them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Surely the major banana skin now is another significant flare-up before polling day?

[Pericles]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)

[brucejoel99]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)

Not happy seeing ACT that high, though everything else is decent.

[Pericles]

The first debate has just happened. I think it was a narrow win by Judith Collins, she was a bit more onto it than Jacinda with debating style, but both were fine (not a crushing victory for Collins). Hopefully it doesn't change much, I doubt it was a game changer, but we'll see.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300112938/election-2020-live-judith-collins-and-jacinda-ardern-face-questions-after-first-leaders-debate

[CumbrianLefty]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)

If those PM numbers hold up, hard to see anything other than a big Labour win.

[mileslunn]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)

Not happy seeing ACT that high, though everything else is decent.

Could that be over gun laws.  My understanding is why gun control changes popular, many gun owners opposed them and ACT was only party to oppose change.  Also Collins I think is more moderate so some of the more libertarian elements might prefer ACT.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)

How many seats do you think Labour can get? I would be pretty happy to see a healthy majority.

[Pericles]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)

How many seats do you think Labour can get? I would be pretty happy to see a healthy majority.

On that poll I think it is 62/120 seats. It might be better for getting the most progressive government for Labour to fall just short and have to form a coalition with the Greens.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)

How many seats do you think Labour can get? I would be pretty happy to see a healthy majority.

On that poll I think it is 62/120 seats. It might be better for getting the most progressive government for Labour to fall just short and have to form a coalition with the Greens.

Well, I suppose that in theory they could form a coalition with the Greens even if they already have a majority of seats, but I recognize that's not even remotely going to happen in practice.

[GALeftist]

It truly astonishes me how badly the National Party screwed this race up.

[Pericles]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)

How many seats do you think Labour can get? I would be pretty happy to see a healthy majority.

On that poll I think it is 62/120 seats. It might be better for getting the most progressive government for Labour to fall just short and have to form a coalition with the Greens.

Well, I suppose that in theory they could form a coalition with the Greens even if they already have a majority of seats, but I recognize that's not even remotely going to happen in practice.

The Greens could actually be in the government with a Labour majority. John Key for instance got a lot more coalition partners than he needed to get to a bare majority, and he was still going to include other parties when it looked like he'd won a majority in 2014. Labour will want to preserve their relationship with their coalition partners for when they inevitably lose their majority (if they're lucky enough to get one). However the Greens (or NZ First, if they get back in) wouldn't have any leverage. Labour hasn't been clear about how they'd handle a scenario where they get a majority (sensibly).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)

How many seats do you think Labour can get? I would be pretty happy to see a healthy majority.

On that poll I think it is 62/120 seats. It might be better for getting the most progressive government for Labour to fall just short and have to form a coalition with the Greens.

Well, I suppose that in theory they could form a coalition with the Greens even if they already have a majority of seats, but I recognize that's not even remotely going to happen in practice.

The Greens could actually be in the government with a Labour majority. John Key for instance got a lot more coalition partners than he needed to get to a bare majority, and he was still going to include other parties when it looked like he'd won a majority in 2014. Labour will want to preserve their relationship with their coalition partners for when they inevitably lose their majority (if they're lucky enough to get one). However the Greens (or NZ First, if they get back in) wouldn't have any leverage. Labour hasn't been clear about how they'd handle a scenario where they get a majority (sensibly).

Well that's pretty good. I thought there were more distrust of coalitions when not strictly necessary in New Zealand, but I guess you are getting used to the magic of (mixed) proportional representation.
I agree that it's sensible not to go into details about a majority scenario.

[Pericles]

It truly astonishes me how badly the National Party screwed this race up.

Yeah, it's amazing how quickly things fell apart for them (though seperating how much was caused by National and how much was caused by Covid/Jacinda Ardern is very difficult). They held up pretty well for a first-term opposition and in February they were polling pretty well (46%, as Simon Bridges cheekily pointed out). In a way, it's more surprising that they were so competitive against such a popular and charismatic Prime Minister (and with Simon Bridges as their leader then), than the fact that they are losing badly now. That said, they are still not helping themselves, with a budget that looks like Swiss cheese. They now have too little left for cost pressures in areas like health. Goldsmith's reply that ""It's just a set of opinions from Grant Robertson about how much should be set aside for extra health funding. We have in our budget plenty of money available to increase investment in health and education," is pretty amateurish imo, because it is an election campaign and he should be able to actually defend his policies and the choices he is making (unless of course Labour are right and he is just incompetent).

[CumbrianLefty]

Said it before, I don't think the Nationals ever really came to terms with losing power.

[Pericles]

New Newshub/Reid Research poll:

Labour-50.1%(-10.8%)
National-29.6%(+4.5%)
Green-6.5%(+0.8%)
ACT-6.3%(+3.0%)
NZ First-1.9%(-0.1%)

This comes out as 65 Labour seats (+19), National 39 (-17), ACT 9 (+8), Green 8 (_). NZ First is gone, losing all 9 seats.

Preferred Prime Minister is Jacinda Ardern 53.2% (-8.8%), Judith Collins 17.7% (+3.1%).

[Polkergeist]

Interesting breakdown of poll respondents by 2017 vote at the end of the video here:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/nz-election-2020-newshub-reid-research-poll-shows-labour-governing-alone-as-national-languishes-in-the-20s.html

2017 Labour voters: Lab 83, Nat 5, Grn 5

2017 National voters: Nat 63, Lab 21, ACT 9

40% of 2017 Green voters chose Labour in the poll

43% of 2017 New Zealand First voters chose Labour in the poll

Intending 2020 ACT voters: Nat 37, Maori 10, Lab 10

[Pericles]

Interest breakdown of poll respondents by 2017 vote at the end of the video here:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/nz-election-2020-newshub-reid-research-poll-shows-labour-governing-alone-as-national-languishes-in-the-20s.html

2017 Labour voters: Lab 83, Nat 5, Grn 5

2017 National voters: Nat 63, Lab 21, ACT 9

40% of 2017 Green voters chose Labour in the poll

43% of 2017 New Zealand First voters chose Labour in the poll

Intending 2020 ACT voters: Nat 37, Maori 10, Lab 10

Overall that makes sense. It's amazing how the Greens are surviving with so much of their vote going to Labour. Also, I don't understand how so much of the ACT vote is coming from the Maori Party, on those numbers we're supposed to believe that half of 2017 Maori Party voters are voting for ACT?

[brucejoel99]

Is it just me, or are the polls fluctuating like crazy this year? I know this has been a different kind of election, given COVID, lockdowns, & everything else that 2020 has had to offer, but even then, it still seems overly volatile.

[Pericles]

Is it just me, or are the polls fluctuating like crazy this year? I know this has been a different kind of election, given COVID, lockdowns, & everything else that 2020 has had to offer, but even then, it still seems overly volatile.

Some NZ elections have stable polling, others don't. 2005-2014 were all very stable. 2017 of course wasn't, with a big Labour surge due to Jacindamania that then seemed to crash quite significantly in the final stretch. A similar election to this one, 2002, was also very unstable, with Labour looking like it would win an overall majority but both Labour and National lost around 10 points of their vote share during the campaign period. NZ voters are less polarised and inelastic than those in many other countries, perhaps that's partly due to us being a smaller country. New Zealanders also tend to vote more on leaders and less on policy than voters in other countries imo. This is probably a bad thing overall, it was very frustrating for Labour in the Key years but now is working great for them.

This election is unusual with Covid and Labour got a huge rally around the flag bump from it. What was perhaps more surprising actually was the relative stability of polling from the 2017 election until Covid. Labour probably was being held back by its policy failures from unleashing the full potential that Jacinda's popularity (and Simon Bridges' unpopularity) offered. The dam seems to have finally broken in March, along with this crisis being different from stuff like the Christchurch shooting because it is still clearly ongoing. Covid also seems to have reinforced Jacinda Ardern's strengths in her being great in a crisis, empathetic and a great communicator.

It's possible then that this election is a bit of a fluke, and National's natural support is much higher so that when Covid fades from view and Labour struggles in another area (such as the economy). However, getting a majority government offers Labour another great opportunity to provide good government, unrestrained by NZ First, and deliver more results on the problems the country faces. If the economy recovers by 2023, Labour may manage to permanently take away National's brand as the best party on the economy. They have almost certainly stolen it for this election. Grant Robertson isn't a scary tax and spend socialist but a very credible and prudent economic manager, and that's the image he seems to project. On the other hand, National's advantage on the economy survived a 3-term Labour government from 1999-2008 (maybe Labour was just unlucky to be in government when the GFC hit?)