It's finally the day! Rate the Iowa caucuses (Iowa prediction megathread)

[redjohn]

With just about a week left, rate the Iowa caucuses. I'd say tilt Sanders/tossup to be safe, even though my gut says lean Sanders.

[The Mikado]

Lean Sanders, given new info, but no more than lean. Iowa caucuses are incredibly unpredictable and very fast moving in terms of changes.

There's the chance, for example, that Sanders' lead leads to a Buttigieg collapse from people who want to stop Sanders. That's probably the main threat to Sanders at this point...if something like that doesn't happen, Sanders probably has this.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Lean Sanders. I expect the top four, in order to be:

Sanders
Buttigieg
Biden
Warren

[Senator Spark]

Due to inconsistent polling, Tilt Sanders/Toss-up.

[Donerail]

Two best polls we've gotten (Siena & Selzer) both say it's lean Sanders, so I'll say lean Sanders.

[indietraveler]

Lean Sanders based on recent polling, which also is showing there's enough undecideds that it could be any of the top 4.

[Spiffy]

Tilt Sanders.

From what I can tell Pete has excellent organizing in Iowa, but the loyalty and passion of Bernie's supporters, coupled with his momentum gives him an edge.

[Grassroots]

Tilt Buttigieg.

[Xing]

Having a hard time choosing between Tilt and Lean Sanders, but went with Tilt Sanders due to how volatile primary polling can be. If more polls show his support growing, I might move it to Lean Sanders.

[Da2017]

Tilt Sanders

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Going bold and saying Likely Sanders. Bernie historically excels in a) caucuses and b) white states

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tilt Sanders. I'm still mostly unsure though. Sanders just seems to have had the most headwinds going into the contest.

[Crumpets]

Tossup, but I think Sanders has the most cause for optimism. Percentage likelihood breakdown right now would be something like 45% Sanders, 35% Biden, 10% Warren, 10% Buttigieg.

[Skill and Chance]

Tilt Sanders.  If it doesn't win, it's overwhelmingly likely to go to Biden.  Buttigieg's odds have been hurt the most over the past month.

[7,052,770]

The Warren endorsement moves the race to Tilt Biden, because Warren will hit the 15% threshold in more precincts now, preventing her votes from being redistributed to Sanders.

[W]

lean sanders

[SN2903]

Lean/Likely Sanders.
NH is likely Sanders.

[Skill and Chance]

The Warren endorsement moves the race to Tilt Biden, because Warren will hit the 15% threshold in more precincts now, preventing her votes from being redistributed to Sanders.

Do you really think that matters?

[7,052,770]

The Warren endorsement moves the race to Tilt Biden, because Warren will hit the 15% threshold in more precincts now, preventing her votes from being redistributed to Sanders.

Do you really think that matters?

If this were a primary, no, but it it's absolutely huge in a format where you have to clear a 15% threshold and you're polling around 15%.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The Warren endorsement moves the race to Tilt Biden, because Warren will hit the 15% threshold in more precincts now, preventing her votes from being redistributed to Sanders.

Do you really think that matters?

If this were a primary, no, but it it's absolutely huge in a format where you have to clear a 15% threshold and you're polling around 15%.

I don’t think so. No Bernie supporter is going to suddenly change their mind because of the freaking Des Moines Register of all things. It might sway some undecideds. But people have known Sanders and what he stands for for five years now.

[7,052,770]

The Warren endorsement moves the race to Tilt Biden, because Warren will hit the 15% threshold in more precincts now, preventing her votes from being redistributed to Sanders.

Do you really think that matters?

If this were a primary, no, but it it's absolutely huge in a format where you have to clear a 15% threshold and you're polling around 15%.

I don’t think so. No Bernie supporter is going to suddenly change their mind because of the freaking Des Moines Register of all things. It might sway some undecideds. But people have known Sanders and what he stands for for five years now.

Yeah I know. I'm not saying it's going to flip any Sanders supporters. But how well Bernie does in any particular precinct is heavily dependent on whether Warren gets 15% or not, since I suspect he'll do very well when her supporters are reallocated.  I don't expect the endorsement to influence THAT many undecideds, but it will get a few percentage points, and Warren will stay viable in some precincts because of it, since she was hovering around 15% beforehand.

[Beet]

Likely Sanders. It's clear at this point that he's going to win Iowa and New Hampshire, which means he likely wins Nevada as well. After that, he will lock up the Northeast, Midwest and West while isolating a faltering and uninspiring Joe Biden in the South. The only question at this point is when Joe drops out- March or April?

[Mr. Smith]

Tilt Sanders, he has the advantage...but I wouldn't be surprised if Pete eked it out.

[ElectionsGuy]

If this thread is getting pinned, then Xing's Iowa prediction thread should also get pinned.

Lean Sanders.

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

Not gonna go any further than Tilt Sanders. Iowans are very, very stupid people.