It's finally the day! Rate the Iowa caucuses (Iowa prediction megathread)

[redjohn]

More polling out of IA seems to confirm the current tilt Sanders/lean Sanders rating on this race. I could see Biden winning, too, though.

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely Bernie

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Lean Sanders

[Gone to Carolina]

I'm gonna vote for a pure tossup between Bernie / Biden, entirely depends on youth turnout.

[Pericles]

Going with pure tossup, any of the top 4 could win it.

[Blue3]

Caucuses usually depend the most on
1. true voter enthusiasm
2. organized ground-game

for these reasons, I lean Sanders.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Going with Bernie.  Caucuses are un-democratic and heavily reliant on enthusiastic supporters who stand out in the cold for hours just to cast a vote for you.  They are also social affairs and a candidate is heavily advantaged by having passionate, relentless supporters who will force other people to come to their side.  Bernie would have a strong advantage even if he wasn't also leading in the polls.

Fortunately, Iowa and Nevada are the only important states with caucuses this time around, so Bernie isn't gonna run around winning low-turnout caucus states by 70% like he did last time.

[Gass3268]

Lean Sanders

[bilaps]

I would go for likely Bernie without impeachment trial. With him being away whole week while Buttigieg holds ton of events and Biden being there too i'll go with a lean.

But one thing for sure, if younger voters and 1st time caucus goers turn out big it could be bigger win than anticipated.

I've looked at a 538 report from IA saying that Bernie has the least field offices out of all 4 major candidates in IA, that was a little surprising. But, I think he has a volunteer base like no others, he has grassroots, you just don't see those fundraising numbers and volunteer and phonebanking numbers anywhere else. It has to mean something on the ground.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean Sanders

Agreed. I change my rating from tilt Butti to lean Sanders.

Biden 2nd, Butti 3rd, Warren 4th, Klobuchar 5th

[SInNYC]

Going with Bernie.  Caucuses are un-democratic and heavily reliant on enthusiastic supporters who stand out in the cold for hours just to cast a vote for you.  They are also social affairs and a candidate is heavily advantaged by having passionate, relentless supporters who will force other people to come to their side.  Bernie would have a strong advantage even if he wasn't also leading in the polls.

Fortunately, Iowa and Nevada are the only important states with caucuses this time around, so Bernie isn't gonna run around winning low-turnout caucus states by 70% like he did last time.

Stand outside for hours?  You sit in one side of a room in some local hall and might even get some cookies or banana bread while caucusing. Yes, the room is heated, and yes its with gas or electricity or oil.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Going with Bernie.  Caucuses are un-democratic and heavily reliant on enthusiastic supporters who stand out in the cold for hours just to cast a vote for you.  They are also social affairs and a candidate is heavily advantaged by having passionate, relentless supporters who will force other people to come to their side.  Bernie would have a strong advantage even if he wasn't also leading in the polls.

Fortunately, Iowa and Nevada are the only important states with caucuses this time around, so Bernie isn't gonna run around winning low-turnout caucus states by 70% like he did last time.

Stand outside for hours?  You sit in one side of a room in some local hall and might even get some cookies or banana bread while caucusing. Yes, the room is heated, and yes its with gas or electricity or oil.

When I've caucused in the past, you had to wait in a long line outside the caucus site and they let people in one-by-one.

[Cinemark]

Going with Bernie.  Caucuses are un-democratic and heavily reliant on enthusiastic supporters who stand out in the cold for hours just to cast a vote for you.  They are also social affairs and a candidate is heavily advantaged by having passionate, relentless supporters who will force other people to come to their side.  Bernie would have a strong advantage even if he wasn't also leading in the polls.

Fortunately, Iowa and Nevada are the only important states with caucuses this time around, so Bernie isn't gonna run around winning low-turnout caucus states by 70% like he did last time.

Stand outside for hours?  You sit in one side of a room in some local hall and might even get some cookies or banana bread while caucusing. Yes, the room is heated, and yes its with gas or electricity or oil.

There were huge lines to get in to multiple caucusing locations in 2016. And it wasnt just Iowa. It was almost every single caucus state. I remember a CNN report of a caucus site in Idaho or Utah where there was a mile long line in the snow for people to get into their caucus location. 

[Eraserhead]

Going with a 25-30% Pete win.

All indicators point to such a result, or at least that he’s being tied with Sanders at ca. 25%.

No, they really don't.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Going with a 25-30% Pete win.

All indicators point to such a result, or at least that he’s being tied with Sanders at ca. 25%.

No, they really don't.

I don't care what polls say
I'm in love with Pete❤️❤️❤️
They try to pull me away
But they don't know the truth
My heart's crippled by the vein
That I keep on closing
Pete❤️❤️❤️ cut me open and I

Keep bleeding
Keep, keep bleeding love ❤️❤️❤️

[Gone to Carolina]

This thread from Nate Cohn has some numbers from the Siena Poll worth considering.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1221795532777099265

[We Live in Black and White]

Tossup/Tilt Sanders just for the sake of safety, but Bernie's momentum doesn't appear to be stoppable at this rate.

[Xing]

Either way, the overreactions to the result will be absolutely insufferable.

When is this ever not the case, though?

[Gass3268]

Either way, the overreactions to the result will be absolutely insufferable.

When is this ever not the case, though?

I'm looking forward to a different candidate winning each of the three reported results and claiming victory.

[Gracile]

I will say Tossup/Tilt Sanders, but it seems like there's still a lot of uncertainty. I could see a scenario where either Sanders, Buttigieg, or Biden take the top spot, though I expect the margin between the three to be somewhat close.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Tilt Biden.

[Queen Isuelt]

https://twitter.com/alanhe/status/1221948034004799488

[Eraserhead]

Either way, the overreactions to the result will be absolutely insufferable.

When is this ever not the case, though?

I'm looking forward to a different candidate winning each of the three reported results and claiming victory.

Three? I know two, what am I missing?

[Green Line]

My gut is telling me Burnie, which is great news because Iowa voters are notoriously out of touch with the rest of the country.