COVID-19 Mega thread

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Coronavirus isn’t the real pandemic. The real pandemic is the resulting fear and mass hysteria. People need to stfu about the Coronavirus.

Coronavirus is just as stupid as last year’s idiotic vaping ‘epidemic.’ Fear mongering at its finest.

What the Coronavirus shows is actually how ill equipped we are to deal with something actually cataclysmic like a bio/chemical attack. Now that is something to fear.

[Beet]

Death rate.

Officially 4,262 died and 64,404 recovered. The case fatality rate rose to 6.2%.

The number of confirmed cases by Region:
Total overall: 118,582 (+4,997)
Hubei Province: 67,760 (+17)
Outside Hubei, China:  12,997 (+5)
Italy: 10,149 (+977)
Iran: 8,042 (+881)
South Korea: 7,513 (+35)
France: 1,784 (+575)
Spain: 1,695 (+622)
Germany: 1,457 (+281)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MollyNagle3/status/1237526813577867265

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Death rate.

Officially 4,262 died and 64,404 recovered. The case fatality rate rose to 6.2%.

The number of confirmed cases by Region:
Total overall: 118,582 (+4,997)
Hubei Province: 67,760 (+17)
Outside Hubei, China:  12,997 (+5)
Italy: 10,149 (+977)
Iran: 8,042 (+881)
South Korea: 7,513 (+35)
France: 1,784 (+575)
Spain: 1,695 (+622)
Germany: 1,457 (+281)

Absolute nonsense. There are tens of thousands who have it/had it and didn’t realize it. This drives the death rate way down.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Coronavirus Rna Virus. Image Hdri Made According To A View Under Transmission Electron Microscope. (Photo By BSIP/UIG Via Getty Images)
 UNIVERSAL IMAGES GROUP VIA GETTY IMAGE

That is a single Corona-virus that is causing all of the issues.

In terms of active cases, the world now has 49,000 which is actually well below the peak of 58,000 on Feb 17.



Keep in mind 65,000 people are now cured, so that is why the media report 113,000 cases.

Now that curve is made up of multiple curves.



Let's say China is green, Iran is blue, Italy is orange etc. Each country is in a different phase of growth or decline.

China is in decline, South Korea is almost stationary, whilst the following countries are accelerating in numbers:

1. Italy +977
2. Iran +881
3. Spain +464
4. France +372
5. Germany +341
6. USA +271
7. Norway +183
8. Denmark +172
9. Switzerland +123
10. Sweden +95

What is remarkable is the exceptionally low infection rates in tropical countries like India, Indonesia and Australia. All of the countries listed in the TOP 10 list above are currently experiencing winter climatic conditions.

In the USA, you guys are just at the bottom of the exponential curve. But it is difficult to think in "exponentials". Although Atlas forum users are regularly exposed to hyperbolae, they are not of the mathematical kind.

What does it actually look like numerically?

Here is the USA case graph for Corona Virus as it develops:



This will grow substantially in the next 7-14 days. If you watch the numbers on that chart, which are early at this stage, you can make a better prediction about the number of total cases and the length of the pandemic within the USA.

I would wait 7 days before making any bold predictions.

[YPestis25]

My university just cancelled in-person classes for next week. We have one presumptive case in the city I'm in. Seems like the predictions on this policy becoming the new norm are being born out.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Coronavirus Rna Virus. Image Hdri Made According To A View Under Transmission Electron Microscope. (Photo By BSIP/UIG Via Getty Images)
 UNIVERSAL IMAGES GROUP VIA GETTY IMAGE

That is a single Corona-virus that is causing all of the issues.

In terms of active cases, the world now has 49,000 which is actually well below the peak of 58,000 on Feb 17.



Keep in mind 65,000 people are now cured, so that is why the media report 113,000 cases.

Now that curve is made up of multiple curves.



Let's say China is green, Iran is blue, Italy is orange etc. Each country is in a different phase of growth or decline.

China is in decline, South Korea is almost stationary, whilst the following countries are accelerating in numbers:

1. Italy +977
2. Iran +881
3. Spain +464
4. France +372
5. Germany +341
6. USA +271
7. Norway +183
8. Denmark +172
9. Switzerland +123
10. Sweden +95

What is remarkable is the exceptionally low infection rates in tropical countries like India, Indonesia and Australia. All of the countries listed in the TOP 10 list above are currently experiencing winter climatic conditions.

In the USA, you guys are just at the bottom of the exponential curve. But it is difficult to think in "exponentials". Although Atlas forum users are regularly exposed to hyperbolae, they are not of the mathematical kind.

What does it actually look like numerically?

Here is the USA case graph for Corona Virus as it develops:

PLACE IMAGE HERE

This will grow substantially in the next 7-14 days.

And in terms of new cases, South Korea is clearly in decline as well as China.

[John Dule]

The Chinese government told its regional officials that they'd be punished if the virus continues to spread, which has disincentivized them to report accurate figures on the number of people infected. I'd take China's numbers with a grain of salt.

[Skill and Chance]

Coronavirus isn’t the real pandemic. The real pandemic is the resulting fear and mass hysteria. People need to stfu about the Coronavirus.

Coronavirus is just as stupid as last year’s idiotic vaping ‘epidemic.’ Fear mongering at its finest.

What the Coronavirus shows is actually how ill equipped we are to deal with something actually cataclysmic like a bio/chemical attack. Now that is something to fear.

No, this is serious.  It's not the Black Death, but it's serious.  Wealthy countries haven't seen something like this in at least 50 years, arguably 100. 

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.wcupa.edu/communications/newsroom/2020/03.10update.aspx

My university just moved all classes online for the rest of the semester.

I expect this is going to be standard practice across the country soon.

Not a peep from PENN, yet, but I do expect them to follow similar suit in the coming days.  Maybe not for the rest of the semester, but at least for a few weeks.  

This is a massive overreaction. There’s no guaranteeing the virus will still be a problem by May. I think we can slowly reintegrate by the beginning of April, if the China/SK trajectory is any indication. Also we have nowhere near as many cases so it’ll be quicker to congain.

[Tintrlvr]

https://www.wcupa.edu/communications/newsroom/2020/03.10update.aspx

My university just moved all classes online for the rest of the semester.

I expect this is going to be standard practice across the country soon.

Not a peep from PENN, yet, but I do expect them to follow similar suit in the coming days.  Maybe not for the rest of the semester, but at least for a few weeks.  

This is a massive overreaction. There’s no guaranteeing the virus will still be a problem by May. I think we can slowly reintegrate by the beginning of April, if the China/SK trajectory is any indication. Also we have nowhere near as many cases so it’ll be quicker to congain.

For universities, I think it makes sense to just go online for the rest of the semester; easier than having the uncertainty of when to go back offline (for both students and professors), and they usually finish the semester around early May anyway so it's not that long a time period. If the crisis is over by mid-April, it's not that big a deal to be online for a few more weeks.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.wcupa.edu/communications/newsroom/2020/03.10update.aspx

My university just moved all classes online for the rest of the semester.

I expect this is going to be standard practice across the country soon.

Not a peep from PENN, yet, but I do expect them to follow similar suit in the coming days.  Maybe not for the rest of the semester, but at least for a few weeks.  

This is a massive overreaction. There’s no guaranteeing the virus will still be a problem by May. I think we can slowly reintegrate by the beginning of April, if the China/SK trajectory is any indication. Also we have nowhere near as many cases so it’ll be quicker to congain.

For universities, I think it makes sense to just go online for the rest of the semester; easier than having the uncertainty of when to go back offline (for both students and professors), and they usually finish the semester around early May anyway so it's not that long a time period. If the crisis is over by mid-April, it's not that big a deal to be online for a few more weeks.

I see. I’m at a community college and nobody lives here. I was probably thinking about my case. It’ll be harder to get students to fly back onto residential campuses. I assume community colleges use the mindset of grade schools rather than universities.

[It’s so Joever]

It seems fairly simple:
The virus grows exponentially until the state is wise enough to implement very strict measures/making testing and treatment free to slow the spread. The only justifiable limiting factor is lack of infrastructure/capability (see: many Sub-Saharan countries) The US has no excuse.
 

[Florida Man for Crime]

For those who don't react to mere statistics and who are still considering unnecessary traveling or attending non-essential gatherings, here is a message to you from an Italian nurse:

https://www.instagram.com/p/B9gmYPLJFt_/

I am a nurse and right now I am facing this medical emergency. I'm afraid too, but not of going shopping, I'm afraid to go to work. I am afraid because the mask may not adhere well to the face, or I may have accidentally touched myself with dirty gloves, or maybe the lenses do not completely cover my eyes and something may have passed.

I am physically tired because the protective devices hurt, the lab coat makes me sweat and once dressed I can no longer go to the bathroom or drink for six hours. I am psychologically tired, as are all my colleagues who have been in the same condition for weeks, but this will not prevent us from doing our job as we have always done. I will continue to take care of my patients, because I am proud of and in love with my job. What I ask anyone who is reading this post is not to undo the effort we are making, to be selfless, to stay at home and thus protect those who are most fragile. We young people are not immune to coronavirus, we too can get sick, or worse, we can infect. I can't afford the luxury of going back to my house quarantined, I have to go to work and do my part. You do yours, I ask you please.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Breaking: First UK MP has tested positive for COVID19.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51827356

Nadine Dorries is a Health Minister in the Johnson administration.

She fell ill on Friday, but held a town hall meeting with 50 constituents over the weekend. She has been in contact with other MPs, and in 10 Downing Street, the Prime Minister's residence, over the last week.

Johnson may have been exposed, the Health Department, including vital figures like the Chief Medical Officer will require testing.

Also, the PM meets the Monarch on a weekly basis. There's no way that Buckingham Palace is going to allow the 93 year old Queen to meet with a potentially infectious Prime Minister.

Tomorrow is going to be a mad day.

Goodness! I hadn't even considered the Queen. 

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

According to the NYT, the Trump administration blocked early testing in January.

No article yet, this is on CNN.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Video in tweet:

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1237393224714481667

[Fight for Trump]

What is remarkable is the exceptionally low infection rates in tropical countries like India, Indonesia and Australia. All of the countries listed in the TOP 10 list above are currently experiencing winter climatic conditions.

Not even coronavirus wants to live in those sh**tholes.

[Hollywood]

Cases in South Korea have almost doubled from the numbers reported yesterday by the WHO, and there is still 5.5 hours left in the WHO daily reporting period (10AM CET; 5AM EST; 6PM Korean ST). 
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3074596/coronavirus-south-korea-reports-first-rise-cases-5-days-dashing

Japan reports 59 New Cases in Biggest One-Day Rise. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/11/coronavirus-update-live-news-uk-health-minister-italy-lockdown-australia-us-china-stock-markets-outbreak-latest-updates

[emailking]

Just passed 1,000 cases in the US.

[Florida Man for Crime]

If South Dakota, which has just a tiny fraction of the overall US population and is not the area most linked to international (or national) travel in the USA has 5 cases which are unrelated to each other, then it statistically highly likely that there are a heck of a lot more cases across the rest of the USA that are not being detected/tested for right now. This is probably the part where everyone starts to realize that we are Italy.

https://twitter.com/RELenski/status/1237538071853203457

[parochial boy]

And for the "it's just like the flu, I'll be fine" crowd, here's another facebook post from an Italian doctor. This bit seemed especially hard hitting

One after the other the unfortunate poor people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In these 2 years I have learned that the people of Bergamo don't come to the emergency room at all. They did well this time too. They followed all the indications given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out and risking contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen.
Drug therapies for this virus are few. The course mainly depends on our organism. We can only support it when it can't take it anymore. It is mainly hoped that our body will eradicate the virus on its own, let's face it. Antiviral therapies are experimental on this virus and we learn its behavior day after day. Staying at home until the symptoms worsen does not change the prognosis of the disease.
Now, however, that need for beds in all its drama has arrived. One after another, the departments that had been emptied are filling up at an impressive rate. The display boards with the names of the sick, of different colors depending on the operating unit they belong to, are now all red and instead of the surgical operation there is the diagnosis, which is always the same cursed: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.
...
And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us. The cases multiply, we arrive at the rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the first aid management software works and a few minutes later they are already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. The PC screen with the reasons for access is always the same: fever and difficulty breathing, fever and cough, respiratory failure etc ... The exams, radiology always with the same sentence: bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia. All to be hospitalized. Someone already to intubate and go to intensive care. For others it is late ...
Intensive care becomes saturated, and where intensive care ends, more are created. Each fan becomes like gold: those of the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity become places for intensive care that did not exist before.
...
Those wards that previously looked like ghosts are now saturated, ready to try to give their best for the sick, but exhausted. The staff is exhausted. I saw fatigue on faces that didn't know what it was despite the already grueling workloads they had. I have seen people still stop beyond the times they used to stop already, for overtime that was now habitual. I saw solidarity from all of us, who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask "what can I do for you now?" or "leave that hospitalization alone." Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we are unable to save everyone and the vital signs of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny.

This is Northern Italy. It has one of the best healthcare systems in the world. If you just try and carry on as if it's not your problem then this is your destiny, in fact, it's probably not even as bad as your destiny.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Cases in South Korea have almost doubled from the numbers reported yesterday by the WHO, and there is still 5.5 hours left in the WHO daily reporting period (10AM CET; 5AM EST; 6PM Korean ST). 
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3074596/coronavirus-south-korea-reports-first-rise-cases-5-days-dashing

Japan reports 59 New Cases in Biggest One-Day Rise. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/11/coronavirus-update-live-news-uk-health-minister-italy-lockdown-australia-us-china-stock-markets-outbreak-latest-updates

ROK may have uncovered a cluster around Seoul - hence the rise in cases after a stabilization period. 

[T'Chenka]

Cases in South Korea have almost doubled from the numbers reported yesterday by the WHO, and there is still 5.5 hours left in the WHO daily reporting period (10AM CET; 5AM EST; 6PM Korean ST).  
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3074596/coronavirus-south-korea-reports-first-rise-cases-5-days-dashing

Japan reports 59 New Cases in Biggest One-Day Rise.  
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/11/coronavirus-update-live-news-uk-health-minister-italy-lockdown-australia-us-china-stock-markets-outbreak-latest-updates

ROK may have uncovered a cluster around Seoul - hence the rise in cases after a stabilization period.  

My step-sister is on lockdown in Seoul, last I heard. We aren't close so I don't get regular updates.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Cases in South Korea have almost doubled from the numbers reported yesterday by the WHO, and there is still 5.5 hours left in the WHO daily reporting period (10AM CET; 5AM EST; 6PM Korean ST).  
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3074596/coronavirus-south-korea-reports-first-rise-cases-5-days-dashing

Japan reports 59 New Cases in Biggest One-Day Rise.  
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/11/coronavirus-update-live-news-uk-health-minister-italy-lockdown-australia-us-china-stock-markets-outbreak-latest-updates

ROK may have uncovered a cluster around Seoul - hence the rise in cases after a stabilization period.  

My step-sister is on lockdown in Seoul, last I heard. We aren't close so I don't get regular updates.

Best wishes to her.  Keep us posted.