COVID-19 Mega thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Also, while you may be theoretically contagious in the incubation period, it's much easier to spread it when you're coughing and sneezing on people, so I'd say that the risk is relatively low to most attendees of these conferences.

Can I see your MD, or is this just another "hunch" in the presidential sense of the word?

I don't have a MD, but I know this is a respiratory virus.  All of them are spread by droplets or physical contact, and one of those two means of transmission isn't particularly likely without coughing or sneezing.

This isn't truly airborne spread, which is very rare for diseases and far scarier (measles is the main one I can think of).  This disease is very real and very serious to some, but this whole thread reeks of irrational panic.

I also don't have an MD (yet), so take this with a grain of salt.  

For our studies of epidemiology and virology, this is a bit like our Super Bowl.  While, of course, we never ever hope for outbreaks, it puts us in a unique position of being able to observe an outbreak in real time in direct correlation to our textbooks/case studies.  

You are correct in that known forms of the coronavirus are generally spread via droplets -- I'll ignore recent studies that have shown influenza may be an airborne agent rather than droplets.  As COVID-19 rarely affects the upper respiratory system to the extent of the lower respiratory system, this means that its main form of transmission is via coughing (as opposed to sneezing).  The rule of thumb says that the risk zone around a coughing individual is around six feet.  This obviously limits the ease of transmission via the air.  

There's also evidence that the coronavirus spreads much more easily via hard surfaces than soft surface contact.  And considering how awful people are (health professionals included) at observing basic preventative hygiene measures, this makes things such as handles, door-knobs, etc. another avenue of spread.  

However, I will caution that this is a novel strain of the coronavirus.  There's still a great deal that we don't know about it.  

[Virginiá]

lol:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1236056667063795713

This is the best candidate conservatives had to offer

[QAnonKelly]

My office is contemplating us working from home for the time being

[Fritz]

In discussing all this with my family, the subject of preparing for a possible quarantine came up.  Has anyone out there actually done this, and if so, what is, or was, on your shopping list?

[Scott the Aussie]

In discussing all this with my family, the subject of preparing for a possible quarantine came up.  Has anyone out there actually done this, and if so, what is, or was, on your shopping list?

Apparently you will need toilet paper, lots of toilet paper, make sure you buy enough to last you a couple of years just in case

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In discussing all this with my family, the subject of preparing for a possible quarantine came up.  Has anyone out there actually done this, and if so, what is, or was, on your shopping list?

Apparently you will need toilet paper, lots of toilet paper, make sure you buy enough to last you a couple of years just in case

You're just trying to make money for the Koch brothers. (They own Georgia-Pacific, which among other paper products makes toilet paper.)

[Torrain]

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-u-s-map-where-virus-has-been-confirmed-across-n1124546?icid=related&icid=related

Interactive diagram from NBC showing existing number of reported US cases.

I count cases in 31 states, 32 if you include DC.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

lol:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1236056667063795713

This is the best candidate conservatives had to offer

Was this part before or after he said COVID-19 wasn't that bad because he'd just learned that lots of people die from the flu?

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/07/trump-coronavirus-management-style-123465

This isn't going to end well for us.

I think one of the things this article underlines is that Donald Trump can't do nuances. He's a man of the extremes, one way or the other. So, anything is either absolutely TERRIFIC or a total DISGRACE. Since he's the incumbent president however, the status of the coronavirus situation is absolutely TERRIFIC, with no other option being possible.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/qhardy/status/1236548903085867009

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1236490513827672065

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/learyreports/status/1236451644612714496
Donald Trump currently has no rallies scheduled.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1236445274798583809
Illinois has 6 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of yesterday. COVID-19 disproportionately kills men, the elderly, and those with preexisting conditions.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/learyreports/status/1236451644612714496
Donald Trump currently has no rallies scheduled.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1236445274798583809
Illinois has 6 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of yesterday. COVID-19 disproportionately kills men, the elderly, and those with preexisting conditions.

Bernie Sanders is a man on the cusp of his eighties, with at least one pre-existing condition. He routinely spends hours outside in the cold, making close physical contact with thousands of strangers. He's among those at the highest risk.

Biden, Sanders and Trump should all be wrapped up indoors, providing speeches via streaming. It's a threat to the democratic process to have them jetting from city to city. Even if they remain uninfected, their entourages pose a threat as spreaders.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Governor Cuomo (D-NY) just stated that the number of cases in New York state has risen to 105.  He also tore into the CDC, claiming that labs have not been allowed to conduct testing.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Some bad news from the old Diamond Princess Cruise Ship. 2 more from the ship have died, which pushes up the fatality rate that one would estimate based on the cruise ship data.

https://twitter.com/PenguinSix/status/1236471613194993664

IIRC there was 1 other who died in another country a week or so ago, I am not sure if that was ever counted in the cruise ship statistics or not. More deaths from the cruise ships, and also the Korean fatality rate seems to gradually be creeping up, which both seem to make it less likely that the actual fatality rate will end up under 1%.

For Korea, some people have interpreted the Korean data in an optimistic light to mean that the fatality rate is lower than 1%. However, if their extensive testing is picking up most cases, then most of the cases they find will be newer cases which have not had much time to progress. Some of those people will die over time, pushing up the fatality rate (and it seems like this may be happening - not long ago the crude fatality rate calculated by just dividing deaths by cases was 0.4%. Now it is 0.7% in Korea. Another factor may be that Korea has more spare ICU/hospital capacity per capita than other countries, so it probably takes more to overwhelm the medical system there.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1236674396867170305

Also, the Trump Administration's final coronavirus strategy appears to have leaked:

[Eraserhead]

https://twitter.com/learyreports/status/1236451644612714496
Donald Trump currently has no rallies scheduled.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1236445274798583809
Illinois has 6 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of yesterday. COVID-19 disproportionately kills men, the elderly, and those with preexisting conditions.

Bernie Sanders is a man on the cusp of his eighties, with at least one pre-existing condition. He routinely spends hours outside in the cold, making close physical contact with thousands of strangers. He's among those at the highest risk.

Biden, Sanders and Trump should all be wrapped up indoors, providing speeches via streaming. It's a threat to the democratic process to have them jetting from city to city. Even if they remain uninfected, their entourages pose a threat as spreaders.

Perhaps but that will never happen.

[Torrain]

Bernie Sanders is a man on the cusp of his eighties, with at least one pre-existing condition. He routinely spends hours outside in the cold, making close physical contact with thousands of strangers. He's among those at the highest risk.

Biden, Sanders and Trump should all be wrapped up indoors, providing speeches via streaming. It's a threat to the democratic process to have them jetting from city to city. Even if they remain uninfected, their entourages pose a threat as spreaders.

Perhaps but that will never happen.

Oh, trust me, I know. I just wish the US was moving faster to minimize the outbreak.

The UK is going to have a rough couple of weeks, but at least we're trying. We've tested in excess of 23,000 Britons, and government officials are talking about the outbreak as a 'when' not an 'if', which has allowed for a shift in the seriousness with which we can prepare for a localised epidemic.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/learyreports/status/1236451644612714496
Donald Trump currently has no rallies scheduled.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1236445274798583809
Illinois has 6 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of yesterday. COVID-19 disproportionately kills men, the elderly, and those with preexisting conditions.

Bernie Sanders is a man on the cusp of his eighties, with at least one pre-existing condition. He routinely spends hours outside in the cold, making close physical contact with thousands of strangers. He's among those at the highest risk.

Biden, Sanders and Trump should all be wrapped up indoors, providing speeches via streaming. It's a threat to the democratic process to have them jetting from city to city. Even if they remain uninfected, their entourages pose a threat as spreaders.

I agree; at least they shouldn't shake hands. Just standing on a podium isn't huge deal unless you directly interact with people. I'm really worried for Joe and Bernie. They shouldn't take this lightly. Trump as well. He's a terrible person, but I hope he stays safe. If one of them gets sick, get ready for mass hysteria and depressed turnout in all remaining primaries.

[Florida Man for Crime]

On February 29, the US Federal Government auctioned off 40 cases of N95 masks.

https://gsaauctions.gov/gsaauctions/aucdsclnk?sl=71QSCI20292041

Because who needs all those masks? Certainly not the Federal Government for the strategic stockpile. I guess they must have plenty if they were auctioning them away as late as Feb 29...

Well done...

[Hollywood]

On February 29, the US Federal Government auctioned off 40 cases of N95 masks.

https://gsaauctions.gov/gsaauctions/aucdsclnk?sl=71QSCI20292041

Because who needs all those masks? Certainly not the Federal Government for the strategic stockpile. I guess they must have plenty if they were auctioning them away as late as Feb 29...

Well done...

Yes.  They were not approved for medical use until just a week ago.  The media probably should have told people about this new turn of events to ease the demand for medical masks  The bid you cite started on February 22, which is before approval was granted.  From the article cited below:  

Secretary Azar: In addition, just last night, the FDA and CDC issued guidance with regard to these respirator masks, the N95 masks that you see that look more like cones on someone’s face — healthcare workers.  Something people don’t know is most of those N95 masks — the respirators, they’re called — in the United States are used in the construction trades and industrial trade.  So, construction workers, miners.

Vice President Pence: The focus of our administration’s efforts in this area, as I talked to Governor Pritzker today in Illinois, is we have a — we have a reserve of some 43 million masks.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/press-briefing-vice-president-pence-members-white-house-coronavirus-task-force/

So yeah.  I agree with you.  Well done. 

[Hammy]

Not to sound paranoid, but the question has to be asked: Is anybody else starting to feel if this is still going on by election time that Trump might use it as an excuse to prevent voting by imposing quarantines in unfriendly areas?

[GP270watch]

Coronavirus: Italy death toll soars amid travel ban

The number of people to have died from the coronavirus in Italy has shot up by 133 in a day to 366, officials say.

 

[Skill and Chance]

Not to sound paranoid, but the question has to be asked: Is anybody else starting to feel if this is still going on by election time that Trump might use it as an excuse to prevent voting by imposing quarantines in unfriendly areas?

I think it's highly. unlikely, but the authority to do that would lie with the governors/state legislatures, not the president/CDC.   If there were shenanigans, it would be something like Florida finding an excuse to lock down Broward County 10/15-11/15 or Virginia locking down coal country.

The outcry would be tremendous though if there was any evidence it was being done for political reasons.  Practically every swingable vote in the rest of the state would go to the other side.  That alone should be reason enough not to worry about this. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/karina9m/status/1236774461036085248

Most of these deaths were residents at the living care facility in Kirkland.