COVID-19 Mega thread

[Beet]

Uhh, this post is going to ruffle some feathers, but I don't post anything to alarm anyone.. just to raise some points. There are certain points of comfort that are not really valid ATM.

The virus is in China, and I'm not

Virtually every health expert has now said this is going to be a pandemic and many have said it may be uncontrollable and expect outbreaks outside China, including in Western countries. US health authorities are not even trying very hard to contain this. They are releasing a bunch of people from Wuhan out of quarantine without testing.

The virus can be contained by epidemiological methods, such as contact tracing

The virus, unfortunately, can be spread from person to person. People who are asymptomatic may be spreaders, so testing for fever cannot filter out the virus, like with SARS. Further, the upper bound of the incubation period is unknown, with some reports of over 40 days, so a 14 day quarantine period is no longer a solution. It is possible that some spreaders, including children, never develop symptoms. Further, even direct scientific testing, such as the PCR test which is the most sensitive test developed to date, is not accurate. There is absolutely no way to know whether someone has the virus, regardless of epidemiological history, symptoms, or even scientific testing.

If I'm just careful around everyone, it doesn't matter who is infected, I'll be safe

OK, so you say. There's no way to know who's infected. But it won't matter, because I'll just be careful around everyone. But unfortunately, this is not a solution because the virus is aerosolized, which means it can travel several hundred meters through the air for you to breathe in. You cannot be so careful that you can avoid coming within several hundred meters of any other human being.

If it gets serious, I'll just stock up on non-perishables and hole up in my place

This is what people in China are trying to do. Unfortunately, it does not prevent you from being infected via circulating air or sewage systems in multifamily units. Further, how long will you remain isolated? You can't remain isolated forever. Which brings us to...

All of this will blow over, just like SARS, the Spanish flu, etc.

Unfortunately, not all coronaviruses blow over. Some remain with us permanently, like the common cold or the flu. They may go into abeyance at some points, but they will always come back. They keep coming back every year with no end. Unfortunately, the difference with COVID-19 is that it is far more lethal than the common cold or the flu.

It's just a matter of time before they develop a treatment or vaccine.

Unfortunately, this is not necessarily true. All the wonders of modern science have not managed to develop a vaccine or treatment for the common cold. In fact, most antivirals on the market today are not really cures, they just help around the edges. There is no guarantee that any effective treatment or vaccine will ever be developed in our lifetimes.

Well, worst case scenario is I get it. It has a low mortality rate, and I'm young. I'll probably live.

Unfortunately, even if you survive this one, you could get reinfected again. People who survive most coronaviruses are only immune for a few years, and then, like the flu, you can get it again. And even if you survive it, you won't be young forever... in fact, the younger you are, the more likely you are to die of COVID-19, because a 77 year old man, for instance, will probably die of heart disease or other old age related illness. Whereas as a 24 year old man, you could get it at age 25, again and age 28, 31, 34, 37, and so on... the odds are higher that you will die of it at some point.

All in all, I would say the situation is rather grave (but it is not the end of the world; humanity will survive. And if there is anything you should not do, it is be alarmed. Rational, dispassionate, conservative and scientific thought must be maintained at all times). There is no answer, there can only be an attempt to find solutions which are as yet, unknown.

Edit: Death rate.

Three days ago, officially 807 died, 2,617 recovered. Today officially 1,114 died, 4,702 recovered. The death rate of the past 3 days remains 13%.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Wednesday 12 Feb 2020

Cases: 44,931

Deaths: 1,114

Mortality Rate: 2.48%

Tuesday 11/2/2020 (2.37%)
Monday 10/2/2020 (2.25%)
Sunday 9/2/2020 (2.16%)
Saturday 8/2/2020 (2.07%)
Friday 7/2/2020 (2.06%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (2.04%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (2.06%)
Tuesday (2.07%)
Monday (2.08%)
Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

New calculation thought to be the most accurate mortality rate:

Mortality Rate (T-7) = 4.67%

Tuesday 11/2/2020 (4.94%)
Monday 10/2/2020 (5.23%)
Sunday 9/2/2020 (5.59%)
Saturday 8/2/2020 (6.06%)
Friday 7/2/2020 (6.50%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (7.23%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (8.12%)

(Calculated using the death total today divided by the reported cases 7 days ago)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Basic mortality rate still climbing over the last 6 days.

Time delayed mortality rate is actually dropping.

New cases are dropping in growth rate and the chart is taking a bell like shape.

Eventually, the two mortality rates will asymptote and hopefully meet each other as the disease is eradicated.

Keep in mind that both calculations only use reported data. So when people stay home, are not hospitalized or recover, they are not included here.

[Skill and Chance]

Unambiguous good news with the growth rate declining notably yesterday. 

[It’s so Joever]

Wtf, the cases just shot up by 15,000!?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Thursday 13 Feb 2020

Cases: 60,062

(New cases: +14,886 in China. Rest of World: 6)

Deaths: 1,360

(New deaths: +245 in China. Rest of World: 0)

Mortality Rate: 2.26%

Wednesday 12/2/2020 (2.48%)
Tuesday 11/2/2020 (2.37%)
Monday 10/2/2020 (2.25%)
Sunday 9/2/2020 (2.16%)
Saturday 8/2/2020 (2.07%)
Friday 7/2/2020 (2.06%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (2.04%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (2.06%)
Tuesday (2.07%)
Monday (2.08%)
Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

Mortality Rate (T-7) = 4.81%

Wednesday 12/2/2020 (4.67%)
Tuesday 11/2/2020 (4.94%)
Monday 10/2/2020 (5.23%)
Sunday 9/2/2020 (5.59%)
Saturday 8/2/2020 (6.06%)
Friday 7/2/2020 (6.50%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (7.23%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (8.12%)

(Calculated using the death total today divided by the reported cases 7 days ago)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Big increase in the number of reported cases and deaths.

Two Australian scientists are concerned that when travel restrictions to/from China are lifted later this week (or month), then the virus has all the attributes necessary to spread rapidly through foreign populations, particularly those currently in the winter climatic months.

Leading virologist Ian Mackay, from the University of Queensland said:

"the fact China has been 'swamped' with cases means there are still many unknowns about the disease."

"And the travel ban has worked. But it can't go on forever.

"We all have very little immunity with coronavirus, which means it will run through a population. The virus has all the tools to spread wildly."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-11/coronavirus-china-sars-flu-in-australia-the-different-diseases/11950358

Dr Mackay's concerns are shared by Australian National University infectious diseases physician Sanjaya Senanayake.

"When it comes to how fast coronavirus can spread between people, it looks like coronavirus can take about six to seven days," Dr Senanyake said.

[It’s so Joever]

Thursday 13 Feb 2020

Cases: 60062

(New cases: +14,886 in China. Rest of World: 6)

Deaths: 1,360

(New deaths: +245 in China. Rest of World: 0)

Mortality Rate: 2.26%

Wednesday 12/2/2020 (2.48%)
Tuesday 11/2/2020 (2.37%)
Monday 10/2/2020 (2.25%)
Sunday 9/2/2020 (2.16%)
Saturday 8/2/2020 (2.07%)
Friday 7/2/2020 (2.06%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (2.04%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (2.06%)
Tuesday (2.07%)
Monday (2.08%)
Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

Mortality Rate (T-7) = 4.81%

Wednesday 12/2/2020 (4.67%)
Tuesday 11/2/2020 (4.94%)
Monday 10/2/2020 (5.23%)
Sunday 9/2/2020 (5.59%)
Saturday 8/2/2020 (6.06%)
Friday 7/2/2020 (6.50%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (7.23%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (8.12%)

(Calculated using the death total today divided by the reported cases 7 days ago)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Big increase in the number of reported cases and deaths.

Two Australian scientists are concerned that when travel restrictions from leaving China are lifted to the the rest of the world perhaps later this week (or month), then the virus has all the attributes necessary to go rapidly through foreign populations, particularly those currently in the winter climatic months.

Leading virologist Ian Mackay, from the University of Queensland said:

"the fact China has been 'swamped' with cases means there are still many unknowns about the disease."

"And the travel ban has worked. But it can't go on forever.

"We all have very little immunity with coronavirus, which means it will run through a population. The virus has all the tools to spread wildly."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-05/coronavirus-pandemic-likely-if-china-world-infections-grow/11929390

Dr Mackay's concerns are shared by Australian National University infectious diseases physician Sanjaya Senanayake.

"When it comes to how fast coronavirus can spread between people, it looks like coronavirus can take about six to seven days," Dr Senanyake said.

At this point our only hope is that somehow China is severely underestimating the amount of cases and the mortality rate is actually really low (kinda like H1N1)
Otherwise we are in deep sh**t.

[It’s so Joever]

Thursday 13 Feb 2020

Cases: 60062

(New cases: +14,886 in China. Rest of World: 6)

Deaths: 1,360

(New deaths: +245 in China. Rest of World: 0)

Mortality Rate: 2.26%

Wednesday 12/2/2020 (2.48%)
Tuesday 11/2/2020 (2.37%)
Monday 10/2/2020 (2.25%)
Sunday 9/2/2020 (2.16%)
Saturday 8/2/2020 (2.07%)
Friday 7/2/2020 (2.06%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (2.04%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (2.06%)
Tuesday (2.07%)
Monday (2.08%)
Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

Mortality Rate (T-7) = 4.81%

Wednesday 12/2/2020 (4.67%)
Tuesday 11/2/2020 (4.94%)
Monday 10/2/2020 (5.23%)
Sunday 9/2/2020 (5.59%)
Saturday 8/2/2020 (6.06%)
Friday 7/2/2020 (6.50%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (7.23%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (8.12%)

(Calculated using the death total today divided by the reported cases 7 days ago)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Big increase in the number of reported cases and deaths.

Two Australian scientists are concerned that when travel restrictions from leaving China are lifted to the the rest of the world perhaps later this week (or month), then the virus has all the attributes necessary to go rapidly through foreign populations, particularly those currently in the winter climatic months.

Leading virologist Ian Mackay, from the University of Queensland said:

"the fact China has been 'swamped' with cases means there are still many unknowns about the disease."

"And the travel ban has worked. But it can't go on forever.

"We all have very little immunity with coronavirus, which means it will run through a population. The virus has all the tools to spread wildly."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-05/coronavirus-pandemic-likely-if-china-world-infections-grow/11929390

Dr Mackay's concerns are shared by Australian National University infectious diseases physician Sanjaya Senanayake.

"When it comes to how fast coronavirus can spread between people, it looks like coronavirus can take about six to seven days," Dr Senanyake said.

At this point our only hope is that somehow China is severely underestimating the amount of cases and the mortality rate is actually really low (kinda like H1N1)
Otherwise we are in deep sh**t.

Also may be interesting to note that pretty much all of these new cases are from Hubei.

[Torrain]

This is insane. If China has been suppressing these numbers, then what the hell has gone wrong badly enough to make them concede this?

60,000 cases puts this in an entirely different ball-park

Whatever happens now, we've got a choice:
- Lift the travel restrictions, and risk global spread
- Leave the flight restrictions in place, and face Beijing's wrath and major economic ramifications.

^{Part of me feels like Neville Chamberlain right now. (Which makes Beet Winston Churchill?)}

[Skill and Chance]

This is insane. If China has been suppressing these numbers, then what the hell has gone wrong badly enough to make them concede this?

60,000 cases puts this in an entirely different ball-park

Whatever happens now, we've got a choice:
- Lift the travel restrictions, and risk global spread
- Leave the flight restrictions in place, and face Beijing's wrath and major economic ramifications.

^{Part of me feels like Neville Chamberlain right now. (Which makes Beet Winston Churchill?)}

Yikes.  Definitely suggests a partial unwind of a deeper cover up since this was I believe the first full day after the WHO got there?

[Torrain]

This is insane. If China has been suppressing these numbers, then what the hell has gone wrong badly enough to make them concede this?

60,000 cases puts this in an entirely different ball-park

Whatever happens now, we've got a choice:
- Lift the travel restrictions, and risk global spread
- Leave the flight restrictions in place, and face Beijing's wrath and major economic ramifications.

^{Part of me feels like Neville Chamberlain right now. (Which makes Beet Winston Churchill?)}

Yikes.  Definitely suggests a partial unwind of a deeper cover up since this was I believe the first full day after the WHO got there?

The fact that caseload has increased outside of Hubei runs counter to the 'virus is contained' narrative.

And if this is how the virus spreads elswhere, we're going to need to keep a real eye on the countries currently experiencing spikes in cases like Thailand and Singapore.

[Torrain]

This is the number of cases reported as infected, and cured each day, according to John Hopkins.

Tonight's numbers throw a wrench in the conventional wisdom of the last week - that the caseload was stabilizing, and we appeared to be out of the woods.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Latest Graphs for Thursday 13 February 2020



Jesus! I am not liking the shape of the "Deaths" curve.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-13/coronavirus-chinas-hubei-province-reports-242-new-deaths/11961602


(AP: Chinatopix)

[Beet]

Death rate.

3 days ago officially 636 died, 1489 recovered. Today officially 1,368 died, 5,968 recovered. The case fatality rate of the past 3 days is 14%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What's the most likely explanation for the sudden jump?  A change in reporting methodology?

[Meclazine for Israel]

What's the most likely explanation for the sudden jump?  A change in reporting methodology?

Hope so. But deaths are deaths. Changing your reporting methodology should not suddenly cause 200 more people to die. There is an Iowan Democratic Caucus app development feel going on here somewhere.

"But the 2,015 new confirmed cases reported in mainland China on Wednesday was dwarfed by the 14,840 new cases reported in Hubei alone on Thursday, when provincial officials said they had adopted a new methodology for counting infections.

It was not immediately clear how the new methodology affected the results, or why the death toll rose so sharply."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-13/coronavirus-chinas-hubei-province-reports-242-new-deaths/11961602

Official terminology and reporting changes are listed here.

http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200213_2025581.shtml

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

What's the most likely explanation for the sudden jump?  A change in reporting methodology?

From Wikipedia, 

On 12 February, the Hubei government adopted a broader definition of confirmed cases, which now includes "clinically diagnosed" patients that have viruses suggested by their symptoms or CT scans but without lab-test results. This accounts for the sharp rise — 13,332 of the 14,840 — in Hubei's newly diagnosed cases on the day.

[Meclazine for Israel]

At this point our only hope is that somehow China is severely underestimating the amount of cases and the mortality rate is actually really low (kinda like H1N1)
Otherwise we are in deep sh**t.

It's an odd outbreak.

Inside China, it now has a predicted 20,000-40,000 new infections per day, and a quarter to a third of those are being clinically diagnosed.

200 deaths per day from now on inside Hubei province.

But in India and Indonesia who have similar population densities and lifestyle/hygiene conditions, we have only 3 diagnosed cases from a combined population of 1.6 billion people.

Japan (500) has the highest increase in case numbers outside China, with half of those on a Cruise ship from Hong Kong.

Mathematically, it's not making sense. 99.3% of the action is inside Hubei Province.

Outside China, it is single digits only for the number of cases in most countries.

[OBD]

At this point our only hope is that somehow China is severely underestimating the amount of cases and the mortality rate is actually really low (kinda like H1N1)
Otherwise we are in deep sh**t.

It's an odd outbreak.

Inside China, it now has a predicted 20,000-40,000 new infections per day, and a quarter to a third of those are being clinically diagnosed.

200 deaths per day from now on inside Hubei province.

But in India and Indonesia who have similar population densities and lifestyle/hygiene conditions, we have only 3 diagnosed cases from a combined population of 1.6 billion people.

Japan (500) has the highest increase in case numbers outside China, with half of those on a Cruise ship from Hong Kong.

Mathematically, it's not making sense. 99.3% of the action is inside Hubei Province.

Outside China, it is single digits only for the number of cases in most countries.

Definitely a testament to the effectiveness of quarantines implemented by both China and other nations. Based on the mortality numbers and the rate of spread in Hubei, we should be very thankful for these travel restrictions.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Friday 14 Feb 2020

Cases: 65,246

(New cases: +4854 in China. Rest of World: 71)

Deaths: 1,487

(New deaths: +119 in China. Rest of World: 1)

Mortality Rate A: 2.28%

Thu 13 (2.26%)
Wed 12 (2.48%)
Tue 11 (2.37%)
Mon 10 (2.25%)
Sun 9 (2.16%)
Sat 8 (2.07%)
Fri 7 (2.06%)
Thu 6 (2.04%)
Wed 5 (2.06%)

Mortality Rate B (T-7) = 4.73%

Thu 13 (4.81%)
Wed 12 (4.67%)
Tue 11 (4.94%)
Mon 10 (5.23%)
Sun 9 (5.59%)
Sat 8 (6.06%)
Fri 7 (6.50%)
Thu 6 (7.23%)
Wed 5 (8.12%)

(Mortality Rate B is calculated using the death total today divided by the reported cases 7 days ago)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Australia has extended the travel ban from China which was due to expire this Saturday.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-14/coronavirus-covid-19-travel-ban-extension-implications/11964266

I don't know the USA travel ban length, but this weekend is clearly too soon. If you are locked up in Wuhan, and you are wealthy, as soon as the travel restrictions are removed, you would be booking your first flight out of the country.

[Beet]

Death rate.

3 days ago 1,018 died and 4,052 recovered. Today officially 1,490 died and 7,054 recovered. The case fatality rate of the past 3 days is 14%.

Edit: An article in Radiology finds a certain combination of ground-glass opacity in certain parts of the lungs on the CT scan, that develops rapidly, can be a diagnostic criteria for COVID-19.

Also, I predict that before this is all over a mainstream outlet such as the NYTimes will publish an article looking into genetic risk factors (including ACE2 receptors), and when it does, it will be very significant no matter what is reported.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Death rate.

3 days ago 1,018 died and 4,052 recovered. Today officially 1,490 died and 7,054 recovered. The case fatality rate of the past 3 days is 14%.

Edit: An article in Radiology finds a certain combination of ground-glass opacity in certain parts of the lungs on the CT scan, that develops rapidly, can be a diagnostic criteria for COVID-19.

Also, I predict that before this is all over a mainstream outlet such as the NYTimes will publish an article looking into genetic risk factors (including ACE2 receptors), and when it does, it will be very significant no matter what is reported.

What are ACE2 receptors, and who is most at risk based on them?

[Meclazine for Israel]

14th February COVID-19 Graphs



6.5% of the world's populatuon is currently in lockdown.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-15/coronavirus-lockdown-in-china-6.5-per-cent-worlds-population/11968114

[Beet]

Death rate.

3 days ago 1,018 died and 4,052 recovered. Today officially 1,490 died and 7,054 recovered. The case fatality rate of the past 3 days is 14%.

Edit: An article in Radiology finds a certain combination of ground-glass opacity in certain parts of the lungs on the CT scan, that develops rapidly, can be a diagnostic criteria for COVID-19.

Also, I predict that before this is all over a mainstream outlet such as the NYTimes will publish an article looking into genetic risk factors (including ACE2 receptors), and when it does, it will be very significant no matter what is reported.

What are ACE2 receptors, and who is most at risk based on them?

It's an enzyme based on a single nucleotide polymorphism which means it has stable inheritance over generations. If the virus latches on to these receptors in the cells, then it can be used to identify who is genetically at risk.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Saturday 15 Feb 2020

Cases: 67,100

(New cases: +1,854 in China. Rest of World: 0)

Deaths: 1,526

(New deaths: 143-108 (corrected) ~ +35 in China. Rest of World: 0)

Mortality Rate A: 2.27%

Fri 14 (2.28%)
Thu 13 (2.26%)
Wed 12 (2.48%)
Tue 11 (2.37%)
Mon 10 (2.25%)
Sun 9 (2.16%)
Sat 8 (2.07%)
Fri 7 (2.06%)
Thu 6 (2.04%)
Wed 5 (2.06%)

Mortality Rate B (T-7) = 4.38%

Fri 14 (4.73%)
Thu 13 (4.81%)
Wed 12 (4.67%)
Tue 11 (4.94%)
Mon 10 (5.23%)
Sun 9 (5.59%)
Sat 8 (6.06%)
Fri 7 (6.50%)
Thu 6 (7.23%)
Wed 5 (8.12%)

(Mortality Rate B is calculated using the death total today divided by the reported cases 7 days ago)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

China overnight deducted 108 deaths from their stats which explains the low number of new deaths today. The number of new deaths today was officially 143.

A man holding a loudspeaker sits on a motorcycle as it travels past a sanitizing vehicle sprays disinfectant through a steam generator in China.


(abc.net.au - Reuters via China Daily)

Russia, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Finland have full recovered with zero live cases.

Australia had 15. Now they have 5.

USA had 15. Now they have 12.

In other news, the previous Provincial party secretary has been purged, and replaced with Shanghai Mayor, Ying Yong.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3050372/coronavirus-beijings-purge-over-virus-takes-down-top-communist

I think Ying Yong will bring better outcomes for the people of Hubei Province by employing a more balanced approach moving forward.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Egypt confirmed its first case in a foreign tourist, also the first in Africa