COVID-19 Mega thread

[Meclazine for Israel]

Some of us have grandparents who survived both World Wars.

He we are complaining about surviving Swine Flu and Coronavirus. Perspective, please.

The mass hysteria is once again why the MSM can’t be trusted.

Total agreement.

Media hysteria on this story will end in two weeks when it becomes old news.

50,000,000 people died from the Spanish Flu in 1918.
8,200 people died from Influenza in the USA in 2019.  
420 people died from Influenza in Australia in 2019.

650 people died from SARS in China and Hong Kong 2003.
449 people died from MERS in the Middle East in 2013.
56 people have died from the 2020 Coronavirus.

It's called perspective.

No one died from SARS or MERS in the USA in the last two outbreaks.

Disproportionate media response is extremely common. We appear to have these gigantic media lights with nothing to shine them on.

The media hysteria will end when everyone is comfortable it is similar to the common flu born from a bat, snake or monkey that only kills elderly patients with a poor immune response.

Great example of where the media spreads a news story using fear of the unknown. Once people's fear subsides, the media will not play the story.

[Mechavada]

This thread:

A few posters: This might be something serious.  We should be cautious because you don't know you have it till you have it.
Most Posters: This looks like a repeat of SARS.  In any case, while we shouldn't dismiss the danger there's a lot of information coming out about this virus that we should be optimistic about.
Beet: We are all going to die!

[The Dowager Mod]

It's better to over react and have it turn out to be nothing, Rather than ignore it and wind up with a dystopian hellscape where i have to chop off my arm and call myself Furiosa.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1221587903178035206?s=19

[Skill and Chance]

We are now getting unconfirmed reports that some people are going from asymptomatic to dropping dead within the span with literally 2 minutes. That would explain some of the videos we've seen of people suddenly collapsing on the street.

These are the kind of statements that should not be made unless backed up by extraordinary evidence.

[Cinemark]

We are now getting unconfirmed reports that some people are going from asymptomatic to dropping dead within the span with literally 2 minutes. That would explain some of the videos we've seen of people suddenly collapsing on the street.

These are the kind of statements that should not be made unless backed up by extraordinary evidence.

Yeah, if people are suddenly dropping dead, you gotta show proof. And I mean something more than an unverified twitter account.

[Skill and Chance]

Note here that Wuhan is a city of eleven million people. As in any large city, hundreds of people there are dying daily from non-nCoV causes. If you see a scary video of a man dropping dead on the street like he suddenly had a heart attack, it's probably not nCoV.

Yes.  There are likely to be over a hundred natural deaths from unrelated health problems on a "normal" day in a city that size. 

I do think it's probably worse than what we in the West have been told about it so far, but this is irresponsible, bordering on zombie apocalypse stuff.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Can we get some direction from the mods as to whether we should be posting here or in the International Discussion thread? I have been posting there mostly, but it seems like most posts have gone here (despite much of the discussion in this thread being about China).

[Beet]

https://funnyjunk.com/Tencent/ozBhMbm/

[emailking]

I agree but I probably blame a different set of people than you do. For example, I had just turned 16 when 9/11 happened. The traditional cable news went back to normal programming about two weeks after 9/11 but Fox News would still be primarily be on it until we actually went in.

MSNBC didn't get back to normal until December after Kabul fell.

The first week was coverage 24/7 and they did return to normal overnight programming after that. Daytime was still all 9/11 and Afghanistan stuff.

[Gracile]

The mortality rate for this thing appears to be approaching 100%. Virtually no one has recovered the past several days, whereas many people have died.

You need to stop making these flat-out untrue and dangerous statements. It is not helpful for people who already have some big misconceptions about this virus.

[MaxQue]

Can't the mods take their responsabilities to the public and mute Beet freamongering on this thread?

[Beet]

Take it straight from me: Don't be afraid. I don't tell anyone how to interpret the facts... I'm just the messenger.

The mortality rate for this thing appears to be approaching 100%. Virtually no one has recovered the past several days, whereas many people have died.

None of this is accurate. Not surprising from you

China is reporting very few "recoveries," but the numbers we have from countries outside of China suggest the virus is not particularly dangerous. There are eight confirmed cases in Thailand, for example: if the mortality rate was actually "approaching 100%," you would expect most of them to be dead or at least still in the hospital. Instead, five of them have already recovered and have been discharged. The more likely explanation is that China is either failing to accurate report the number of discharged cases or is keeping people under medical supervision after they've recovered, not that everyone is dying.

It is accurate. Including the Thailand numbers in there doesn't change it, as it is only 8 total cases, not a statistically significant sample. The rest of your post is just baseless speculation. I would just stick to the facts as reported. What you say is of course possible, but there is no evidence of it. In fact, there are news stories of patients that have "recovered", such as one in Zhejiang, which suggests the Chinese authorities are releasing recovered patients and actually touting them. However it is just 2 or 3. Also, there are strict criteria for when a patient has recovered (such as no fever, no virus in the upper respiratory tract for several days). These criteria have been the same since the beginning, and there is no evidence that it has changed.

[Beet]

Can you provide any source reporting the "fact" that the mortality rate is approaching 100%? If not, I would advise you to avoid the baseless speculation and just stick to the facts as reported.

Sure. According to the Lancet article you posted earlier in this thread, 28 out of the 41 initial cases up to January 2 had recovered, and six died, a mortality rate of 17.6%. From then until yesterday, 50 more people had died, and 24 people had recovered, according to the sources cited here. The CFR from January 2 to yesterday was 67.6%. Then, from yesterday to today an additional 25 people died and 5 recovered, according to Reuters. The CFR has risen to 83.3%. Thus it is getting nearer to 100%, and it is not approaching any lower limit. Further, that is not even including the mistaken Tencent graphic I posted above. Some people say it is a typo, though.

The caveat of course is that this is based on very fractional data, as there are many deaths and likely recoveries that are not being recorded, however, it is the only data we have.

[PSOL]

CDC reports no new cases since last update, 110 individuals being screened in the meantime 

Seems like the authorities have this under control, we can all calm down.

[Florida Man for Crime]

In 2018, Trump apparently disbanded the National Security Council team that was responsible for leading the US response to pandemics...

Top White House official in charge of pandemic response exits abruptly

The top White House official responsible for leading the U.S. response in the event of a deadly pandemic has left the administration, and the global health security team he oversaw has been disbanded under a reorganization by national security adviser John Bolton.

The abrupt departure of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council means no senior administration official is now focused solely on global health security. Ziemer’s departure, along with the breakup of his team, comes at a time when many experts say the country is already underprepared for the increasing risks of a pandemic or bioterrorism attack.

Ziemer’s last day was Tuesday, the same day a new Ebola outbreak was declared in Congo. He is not being replaced.

...

The personnel changes, which Morrison and others characterize as a downgrading of global health security, are part of Bolton’s previously announced plans to streamline the NSC. Two members of Ziemer's team have been merged into a unit in charge of weapons of mass destruction, and another official's position is now part of a unit responsible for international organizations. White House homeland security adviser Tom Bossert, who had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks, is out completely. He left the day after Bolton took over last month.

So if the US response turns out not to be well-coordinated, well, this may have something to do with it...

[Florida Man for Crime]

CDC reports no new cases since last update, 110 individuals being screened in the meantime  

Seems like the authorities have this under control, we can all calm down.

The realistic concern is not so much the immediate future, but the longer term over the next weeks and perhaps months. Of course there is very little immediate danger to people in the USA, but that is obviously not the point.

Beet is of course being a (counter-productively) total idiot about this, but that doesn't mean that this is not a serious concern. Suppose that it turns out to have even just a 0.1% fatality rate. During the 2009 pandemic, an estimated 59 million people just in the USA contracted H1N1. If this were to spread (over a period of months) to 59 million people with a 0.1% fatality rate, that works out to 59,000 dead in the USA alone. That alone is significant, and unless I am missing something it is quite plausible still that the death rate could be an order of magnitude or so higher than that (perhaps also a bit more), and also that it could spread to more than ~18% of the population (which is approximately what 59 million is). IE suppose that 150 million people (a bit less than half the US population) contract it and it has a CFR of 1%. That is 1.5 million dead in the USA alone, and obviously many millions more across the world.

As far as I can see, that is the real concern, not so much Beet's deliberate sensationalizing about a 100% case fatality rate.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/alexandraphelan/status/1221859547918110720

This is a pretty important error correction in the WHO Situation Report released last night. The past 3 Sit Reps had global risk as "moderate" in error, when it should have been "high".

https://twitter.com/alexandraphelan/status/1221859547918110720

(OK, I guess I will start posting about the international stuff in this thread, since this seems to be where everyone is and nobody is paying attention to the international discussion thread)

[Cinemark]

CDC reports no new cases since last update, 110 individuals being screened in the meantime 

Seems like the authorities have this under control, we can all calm down.

Nothing suggests calm like censoring simple factually supported statements on an obscure message board, but OK.

Better than posting utter nonsense.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/M_PaulMcNamara/status/1221731308310798336

[Meclazine for Israel]

The actual case fatality rate is far lower, as there is a large population of people who are infected and become sick, but not sick enough to go to the hospital. The difficulties of quantifying the number of non-diagnosed cases makes it difficult to calculate exactly what it is at this time, but it is far below 100%.

Mortality rate of SARS for presented cases was between 11-15%.

For the actual percentage, including people infected who did not show up, you are looking at 3-4% at best.

As with Influenza, most people who died from the disease were aged over 65. Least likely to die are people under 24.

This looks like a repeat 'dose' of a similar style outbreak.

[Beet]

Can you provide any source reporting the "fact" that the mortality rate is approaching 100%? If not, I would advise you to avoid the baseless speculation and just stick to the facts as reported.

Sure. According to the Lancet article you posted earlier in this thread, 28 out of the 41 initial cases up to January 2 had recovered, and six died, a mortality rate of 17.6%. From then until yesterday, 50 more people had died, and 24 people had recovered, according to the sources cited here. The CFR from January 2 to yesterday was 67.6%. Then, from yesterday to today an additional 25 people died and 5 recovered, according to Reuters. The CFR has risen to 83.3%. Thus it is getting nearer to 100%, and it is not approaching any lower limit.

So, there is no source reporting that the mortality rate is approaching 100%, just your own speculation? Got it.

Anyway, that's not how you calculate a case fatality rate. You would criticize me, and rightfully so, if, tomorrow, two people were released and none died, thereby proving the disease is harmless as the CFR has dropped to 0%. The evidence you have presented supports one of two conclusions: either 1. the disease is mutating rapidly and becoming much more deadly, or 2. your samples are unrepresentative. The latter is much more likely, for reasons I have already explained.

The fatality rate among those who are diagnosed and admitted to a hospital, for those interested, is around 14% (per a press conference yesterday from Gabriel Leung, Dean of Medicine at Hong Kong University). That 14% number is very close to estimates published three days ago by Chinese researchers studying the first 41 cases in Wuhan.

The actual case fatality rate is far lower, as there is a large population of people who are infected and become sick, but not sick enough to go to the hospital. The difficulties of quantifying the number of non-diagnosed cases makes it difficult to calculate exactly what it is at this time, but it is far below 100%.

On your first link, OK but it is not said where he is getting the 14% number. If it is heavily influenced by the same 41 initial cases then it is of course outdated.

In the latest CGTN update, the number of discharged actually dropped to 47. This could indicate some people who were previously thought to have recovered have relapsed.

Latest update (47 discharged):

https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1221964113393270784

Previous update (had 51 'cured'):

https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1221584859971219456

Technically that puts the mortality rate over the past day as over 100%, making my previous post an underestimation, but that is a statistically anomaly, however. In the last 24 hours, latest update, 20 more died, no recovered which is 100%, up from 83.3% yesterday. Again, I have been proven correct with my statement yesterday.

Edit: See the update below. The CFR for 1/27 is 86%, not 100%.

[Cinemark]

One of my friends brought up an interesting point. China's air quality, especially in Wuhan, is very very bad. Combined with the incredibly high rate of smokers(something like 70% of Chinese men smoke) and you've got a recipe for disaster when it comes to respiratory illness. 

[Beet]

Perhaps a mortality rate of over 100% should make you question the source of your numbers.

Finally we agree! I missed out on the NHC Daily report when making that post. These tweets are comparing national numbers and Hubei numbers only. Why I was confused was that there was a massive SURGE in the number of cases, that the cases in Hubei alone ~2,700 are roughly equal to the total number of cases worldwide yesterday. Now the total number of cases is roughly 4,500 or a 1,300 jump in one day!

During the SARS epidemic the worst day had only 80 new cases per day. This is very bad news.

The real numbers are in the last day, deaths increased from 82 to 107 and 4 people recovered. So the CFR is not 100%, it is 86%. However, it is still much closer to my estimate than your 14%.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Perhaps a mortality rate of over 100% should make you question the source of your numbers.

That is caused by people who died from other causes ( murder, disease, accident, heart attack ) whilst shipping relatives infected with the Corona Virus to the hospital.

They need to be included as well.