Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1

[swords]

I remember your 2018 prediction was pretty awful. did u delete?

You remember incorrectly, I predicted 225D-210R but was screwed over by lazy douchenozzles like Dan Donovan who took their seats for granted. Much better than 'Blue Tsunami' predictors who were at around 250D or more!

I was more correct about Florida's Senate election, Indiana's senate election, and Missouri's senate election much more than the average Atlas user (they said Nelson would win by mid single digits and Donnelly and McCaskill would win in squakers; whereas I said Florida would be close and Donnelly and McCaskill were going down by decent margins).

Beto surprised me though, but at the same time I was more accurate about North Dakota and Tennessee.

oh... My Apologies to you.

[Hammy]

Some pro-trump (blue avatars) in this thread ...

I'm doing a home workout right now so I am a bit sweaty, yeah.

I don't think I'll break a sweat about Trump's re-election chances even *once* this year though. He is practically a lock in for re-election.

Do you realize how much everyone here will rip on you if he loses?

I doubt he'll stick around for it if Trump loses.

[EliteLX]

Trump not being able to crack 42% should be more alarming for the GOP.

He was at 35% vs Hillary in March of last election year.. and all indicators are pointing to stable if not warming numbers for him in many areas in WI.

This state will be seriously competitive in 2020, can't tell if he can squeeze out another razer thin win or not though.

[Sir Mohamed]

Tossup/tilt D. These numbers could be from September or October 2016, so I wouldn't read too much into it 10 months out.

WI is definitely the toughest of the 3 Rust Belt states to flip back. AZ, FL and NC may allow Dems to compensate a narrow loss in WI and still win the election.

[tagimaucia]

I don’t think comparably early trial heat polls for an open election with two new candidates are very analogous to polls where an incumbent is running for re-election.  Open election polls are always more swingy as the two candidates try to define themselves, while an incumbent’s popularity is a lot more  locked in at this point, especially in these more polarized times. If you go look at Romney-Obama polls from say, January 2012, in key swing states on RealClearPolitics— in aggregate they look pretty damn similar to what the results actually ended up being.

Anyway, if you believe civiqs, at least in terms of movement ( https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&home_state=Wisconsin ), Trump is pretty much in the same place where he was on Election Day 2018 today, when his net approval was -4 in the Wisconsin exit polls. Clearly Wisconsin is gonna be really close.

[Sir Mohamed]

The only reason why Trunp won WI, was due to Walker who ran in a primary, Teump isnt gonna win the Prez, if he doesnt win WI

Dude, what are you talking about? Walker flopped badly in his 2016 campaign and dropped out long before actual voting in primaries begun. And a reminder: Trump lost the WI GOP primary in April to Ted Cruz.

There are 3 main reasons Trump narrowly carried WI in 2016: 1st, turnout in metro areas, especially among AAs, was down, costing HRC thousands of votes. 2nd, HRC took the state for granted and didn't campaign there in the final weeks. And 3rd, like other Rust Belt states, WI is affected by decades of job losses as a result of globalization. This created a lot of frustration with the system among WWCs and Trump was their perfect Molotov cocktail at Washington DC.

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump not being able to crack 42% should be more alarming for the GOP.

I remember when Braun didn't even crack 40% in a Fox News poll in 2018 a week before the election and most actually believed it and yet this should be alarming? Especially when Wisconsin polls in 2016 (the few pollsters that actually polled Wisconsin because very few actually considered it a contested state) showed Trump at high 30's low 40's even during the final weeks.

[jamestroll]

I doubt Biden or any Democrat wins Wisconsin by 5.

More likely Trump wins Wisconsin by 5.

Most likely its within 2 points

[Pericles]

Trump being stuck in the 41-42% range seems bad for him, and the different margins are just higher numbers of undecideds not higher Trump percentages. Undecideds could go for Trump of course, but a strong possibility is that undecideds end up breaking for the Dem nominee this time (especially if they are voters who have already decided they dislike Trump but at this stage are more selective with which primary candidates they like).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only reason why Trunp won WI, was due to Walker who ran in a primary, Teump isnt gonna win the Prez, if he doesnt win WI

Dude, what are you talking about? Walker flopped badly in his 2016 campaign and dropped out long before actual voting in primaries begun. And a reminder: Trump lost the WI GOP primary in April to Ted Cruz.

There are 3 main reasons Trump narrowly carried WI in 2016: 1st, turnout in metro areas, especially among AAs, was down, costing HRC thousands of votes. 2nd, HRC took the state for granted and didn't campaign there in the final weeks. And 3rd, like other Rust Belt states, WI is affected by decades of job losses as a result of globalization. This created a lot of frustration with the system among WWCs and Trump was their perfect Molotov cocktail at Washington DC.

I was taking about the vouchers that Walker was so popular instilituting when he was Gov of WI and the Charter schools have been a success story in WI as well as all over the country instead of kids going to Catholic or private schools. Just like online schools are taking over university education. Also, Kasich and Walker were reelected due to medicaid expansion

[tagimaucia]

Whether you buy it or not, the argument about candidates polling in the low 40s being in bad shape is typically made specifically about incumbents, so Braun doesn’t really make sense as a counter-example, though there’s no doubt the polls in Indiana were generally very bad. The point being that a 42% or so figure for a candidate that is already serving and has a 3+ year track record is a lot more damning than for someone who is looking to enter that office.

[Sir Mohamed]

Whether you buy it or not, the argument about candidates polling in the low 40s being in bad shape is typically made specifically about incumbents, so Braun doesn’t really make sense as a counter-example, though there’s no doubt the polls in Indiana were generally very bad. The point being that a 42% or so figure for a candidate that is already serving and has a 3+ year track record is a lot more damning than for someone who is looking to enter that office.

I agree with this, but Mr. Trump is far from being done in WI, even if this poll is accurate and reflects the current state of the race; 10 months out with no determined Dem challenger. If Trump starts doing more rallies and TV ads starting on Labor Day, his support in polls may increase to ~45%, trailing the Dem Dem nominee within the MoE. This can easily lead to Trump win by 1-2%.

Also, no Dem candidate in this poll clears 50%, which is almost always a sign nothing can be taken for granted.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are going after the state legislatures in the midwest to turn them from R to D and WI is ground zero for that.  Trump only won WI, due to Johnson and Stein pulling 4 percent

[Pericles]

Whether you buy it or not, the argument about candidates polling in the low 40s being in bad shape is typically made specifically about incumbents, so Braun doesn’t really make sense as a counter-example, though there’s no doubt the polls in Indiana were generally very bad. The point being that a 42% or so figure for a candidate that is already serving and has a 3+ year track record is a lot more damning than for someone who is looking to enter that office.

That he's in the same range in every matchup which seems like a bad sign for him.

[SN2903]

Junk. Trump is up in Wisconsin . As French stated Fox lost credibility after 2018 polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Junk. Trump is up in Wisconsin

You do realize Johnsin and Stein took 3% away from Hilary in Pa, WI and MI?

[Xing]

WI will probably end up siding with the winner of the election either way. While a decent poll for Democrats, clearly it's not enough of a lead to inspire confidence, though no one should be calling WI for Trump with much confidence, either.

[MT Treasurer]

Somehow I have a hard time squaring this and the Glengariff poll with the Mason-Dixon polls. No Democrat is losing FL and GA by double digits (or close to it) while flipping MI/WI in the same election (although it should be noted that the Mason-Dixon polls were conducted before the airstrike).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Junk. Trump is up in Wisconsin . As French stated Fox lost credibility after 2018 polls.

Marquette Law, which is the gold standard for Wisconsin, shows essentially a tossup in the state -- which I think is a pretty good description for the current situation.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Bernie will annihilate Trump in Wisconsin.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Are these going to be put into the database? Or no because it doesn't make the blue avs happy?

[MT Treasurer]

Are these going to be put into the database? Or no because it doesn't make the blue avs happy?

Apparently I’m the only one adding polls which don’t show Trump ahead to the database. I’ll do it later if they’re still not added by then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isnt winning Wiz anyways, itasca D state

[Kempros]

Taking polls from various states, it appears like the PVIs have reverted back to 08' levels.
Trump very strong in the traditional R states that are supposed to be battleground, and weak in the rust belt?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Hmm, good for the Democrats but not bad either for Trump. Neither are overperforming. Sanders and Biden are luckily the best fits to win Wisconsin. We will see how the race evolves. It's still a long time, and I expect Trump voters come home near the end.