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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
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Author Topic: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1  (Read 1456 times)
Hindsight is 2020
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« on: January 09, 2020, 06:33:19 pm »

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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2020, 06:35:39 pm »
« Edited: January 09, 2020, 06:40:13 pm by NYC Millennial Minority »

These probably all decently underestimate Trump in the same way that in 2018, FOX Polls decently underestimated Braun, Hawley, and Cramer - all by over five points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Wisconsin_gubernatorial_election#Polling_2

also note that Walker was behind in many of polls only to come close in the end

and do I even need to bring up Trump's massive overperformance in Wisconsin when he won the first time?
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2020, 06:38:39 pm »

These probably all decently underestimate Trump in the same way that in 2018, FOX Polls decently underestimated Braun, Hawley, and Cramer.
Or a unpopular president is in serious trouble and f losing a state he won by less than 1%
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marty
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« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2020, 06:43:18 pm »

WI is a toss up in 2020

Nothing in this poll indicates otherwise

You have to be a total hack to think trump is more vulnerable in WI now than he was in 2016
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2020, 06:44:15 pm »

These probably all decently underestimate Trump in the same way that in 2018, FOX Polls decently underestimated Braun, Hawley, and Cramer.
Or a unpopular president is in serious trouble and f losing a state he won by less than 1%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/wisconsin

Trump was at 48% approval with Wisconsin's 2018 electorate. Given that Trump supporters will have even higher turnout in a Presidential year, it's very easy to picture Trump at over 50% in Wisconsin.

I'd expect Trump's support in the rurals to be even higher AND his support in the WOW suburbs to be higher as well, relative to 2016.

And remember...Hagedorn beat Neubauer despite them trying really hard to take him down.

All in all, things are looking pretty rosy for Trump. In the same way that you can look at old 2016 polls and scoff, you can look at these old polls and laugh at how so many of them massively underestimated his final numbers.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2020, 06:46:33 pm »

Crazy that Fox News polls are the by far the worse for Trump
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2020, 06:49:08 pm »

These probably all decently underestimate Trump in the same way that in 2018, FOX Polls decently underestimated Braun, Hawley, and Cramer.
Or a unpopular president is in serious trouble and f losing a state he won by less than 1%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/wisconsin

Trump was at 48% approval with Wisconsin's 2018 electorate. Given that Trump supporters will have even higher turnout in a Presidential year, it's very easy to picture Trump at over 50% in Wisconsin.

I'd expect Trump's support in the rurals to be even higher AND his support in the WOW suburbs to be higher as well, relative to 2016.

And remember...Hagedorn beat Neubauer despite them trying really hard to take him down.

All in all, things are looking pretty rosy for Trump. In the same way that you can look at old 2016 polls and scoff, you can look at these old polls and laugh at how so many of them massively underestimated his final numbers.
I like youíre assumptions that only Trump will see a base increase relative to 2018 and that he will do better in the suburbs because well you say so. Real serious analysis 👍
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2020, 06:52:08 pm »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2020, 06:53:28 pm »

That's at least somewhat reassuring. The election will be won or lost here. I hope Democrats' leads can remain similar (or even better) than this throughout the general election.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2020, 06:58:24 pm »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2020, 06:59:40 pm »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls

Even the best pollsters miss occasionally.  Fox News polling is very solid.
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#Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2020, 07:04:17 pm »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls
Fair, though I would add that almost everyone got those wrong.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2020, 07:04:59 pm »

These probably all decently underestimate Trump in the same way that in 2018, FOX Polls decently underestimated Braun, Hawley, and Cramer.
Or a unpopular president is in serious trouble and f losing a state he won by less than 1%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/wisconsin

Trump was at 48% approval with Wisconsin's 2018 electorate. Given that Trump supporters will have even higher turnout in a Presidential year, it's very easy to picture Trump at over 50% in Wisconsin.

I'd expect Trump's support in the rurals to be even higher AND his support in the WOW suburbs to be higher as well, relative to 2016.

And remember...Hagedorn beat Neubauer despite them trying really hard to take him down.

All in all, things are looking pretty rosy for Trump. In the same way that you can look at old 2016 polls and scoff, you can look at these old polls and laugh at how so many of them massively underestimated his final numbers.
I like youíre assumptions that only Trump will see a base increase relative to 2018 and that he will do better in the suburbs because well you say so. Real serious analysis 👍

Well, if we believe MuLaw Polls (historically far more accurate and done by people who actually know this state) Trump is now more popular in WOW counties than the share of the vote he received here four years ago. According to them Trump had last month a 57% approval in southeastern WI outside of  Milwaukee while he received only 54% of the vote in 2016 in this area, thatís why he will also certainly improve upon his 2016 margins in WOW counties
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Cinemark
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« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2020, 07:05:29 pm »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls

Not to be rude, but you have a habit of trying to discredit pollsters when their numbers aren't great for Trump. Its pretty transparent at this point.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #14 on: January 09, 2020, 07:12:33 pm »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls

Not to be rude, but you have a habit of trying to discredit pollsters when their numbers aren't great for Trump. Its pretty transparent at this point.

No, not particularly. I mean, look at the Glengariff poll from yesterday, their numbers are not great for Trump and Iím not trying to discredit them, the problem with Fox News polls is that you have a pattern as their polls always look very bad for Trump, and itís not just their statewide polls but also their national polls. Now, maybe Fox News polls are accurate and Trump will lose the PV by a high single-digit margin and will lose WI by 5, still as of now Iím just a bit sceptic about a such idea, Trump had a 48/50 approval rate in WI per 2018 exit polls and MuLaw polls tend to show a far closer race in WI than Fox News ones and when you look at the record of both pollsters itís clear that MuLaw ones are more trustable
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #15 on: January 09, 2020, 07:27:11 pm »
« Edited: January 09, 2020, 08:44:06 pm by YE »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls

Not to be rude, but you have a habit of trying to discredit pollsters when their numbers aren't great for Trump. Its pretty transparent at this point.

It's a well established fact that FOX polls underestimate GOP performance in states that aren't Nevada.
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#Bidemings2020
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« Reply #16 on: January 09, 2020, 08:14:37 pm »

Trump not being able to crack 42% should be more alarming for the GOP.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #17 on: January 09, 2020, 08:22:00 pm »

So, much for Trump's strategy in winning WI, Walker needed to win in order to Trump to win reelection,  and Walker failed
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #18 on: January 09, 2020, 08:46:15 pm »

Some pro-trump (blue avatars) in this thread ...


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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #19 on: January 09, 2020, 08:48:39 pm »

Some pro-trump (blue avatars) in this thread ...




I'm doing a home workout right now so I am a bit sweaty, yeah.

I don't think I'll break a sweat about Trump's re-election chances even *once* this year though. He is practically a lock in for re-election.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #20 on: January 09, 2020, 09:11:34 pm »

Some pro-trump (blue avatars) in this thread ...




I'm doing a home workout right now so I am a bit sweaty, yeah.

I don't think I'll break a sweat about Trump's re-election chances even *once* this year though. He is practically a lock in for re-election.
Do you realize how much everyone here will rip on you if he loses?
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #21 on: January 09, 2020, 09:55:41 pm »

Do you realize how much everyone here will rip on you if he loses?

I've probably the most ripped on Atlas user of BOTH 2018 and 2019, despite being more accurate in my predictions than many on here.

Internet hatred affects me as much as how a light drizzle affects an ocean.
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swords
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« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2020, 10:31:40 pm »

Do you realize how much everyone here will rip on you if he loses?

I've probably the most ripped on Atlas user of BOTH 2018 and 2019, despite being more accurate in my predictions than many on here.

Internet hatred affects me as much as how a light drizzle affects an ocean.

I remember your 2018 prediction was pretty awful. did u delete?
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #23 on: January 09, 2020, 10:36:31 pm »


I remember your 2018 prediction was pretty awful. did u delete?

You remember incorrectly, I predicted 225D-210R but was screwed over by lazy douchenozzles like Dan Donovan who took their seats for granted. Much better than 'Blue Tsunami' predictors who were at around 250D or more!

I was more correct about Florida's Senate election, Indiana's senate election, and Missouri's senate election much more than the average Atlas user (they said Nelson would win by mid single digits and Donnelly and McCaskill would win in squakers; whereas I said Florida would be close and Donnelly and McCaskill were going down by decent margins).

Beto surprised me though, but at the same time I was more accurate about North Dakota and Tennessee.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #24 on: January 09, 2020, 10:52:21 pm »

The only reason why Trunp won WI, was due to Walker who ran in a primary, Teump isnt gonna win the Prez, if he doesnt win WI
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