2020 New York Redistricting

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hot take- Tories map will be chosen

All due respect to Torie, but gross.  There is no reason New York should have a Republican gerrymander like that as its congressional map.

[Sol]

Hot take- Tories map will be chosen

All due respect to Torie, but gross.  There is no reason New York should have a Republican gerrymander like that as its congressional map.

Literally don't get it--only real thing on there that seems a bit underhanded partisanwise is giving Staten Island Coney Island and Brighton Beach, which are barely contiguous (and the easternmost precinct basically isn't, the populated parts are separated from the rest of the seat by Marine Park.)

It's a pretty fair map imo--the biggest issues probably are the unnecessarily complicated lines in Queens and the split of Harlem which I suspect probably would not be popular in the community.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1522963163486244864?cxt=HHwWgMDS2bO706IqAAAA

How does this dude have a job as a law professor?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hot take- Tories map will be chosen

All due respect to Torie, but gross.  There is no reason New York should have a Republican gerrymander like that as its congressional map.

Literally don't get it--only real thing on there that seems a bit underhanded partisanwise is giving Staten Island Coney Island and Brighton Beach, which are barely contiguous (and the easternmost precinct basically isn't, the populated parts are separated from the rest of the seat by Marine Park.

It's a pretty fair map imo--the biggest issues probably are the unnecessarily complicated lines in Queens and the split of Harlem which I suspect probably would not be popular in the community.

I don’t think any of the maps will be “chosen” but I could see a map that takes a good deal of the features of Tories, but ye, the elimination of a majority Hispanic seat ain’t gonna fly.

[lfromnj]

Hot take- Tories map will be chosen

All due respect to Torie, but gross.  There is no reason New York should have a Republican gerrymander like that as its congressional map.

Literally don't get it--only real thing on there that seems a bit underhanded partisanwise is giving Staten Island Coney Island and Brighton Beach, which are barely contiguous (and the easternmost precinct basically isn't, the populated parts are separated from the rest of the seat by Marine Park.

It's a pretty fair map imo--the biggest issues probably are the unnecessarily complicated lines in Queens and the split of Harlem which I suspect probably would not be popular in the community.

I don’t think any of the maps will be “chosen” but I could see a map that takes a good deal of the features of Tories, but ye, the elimination of a majority Hispanic seat ain’t gonna fly.

The current ny 7th is only 38% .

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hot take- Tories map will be chosen

All due respect to Torie, but gross.  There is no reason New York should have a Republican gerrymander like that as its congressional map.

Literally don't get it--only real thing on there that seems a bit underhanded partisanwise is giving Staten Island Coney Island and Brighton Beach, which are barely contiguous (and the easternmost precinct basically isn't, the populated parts are separated from the rest of the seat by Marine Park.

It's a pretty fair map imo--the biggest issues probably are the unnecessarily complicated lines in Queens and the split of Harlem which I suspect probably would not be popular in the community.

I don’t think any of the maps will be “chosen” but I could see a map that takes a good deal of the features of Tories, but ye, the elimination of a majority Hispanic seat ain’t gonna fly.

The current ny 7th is only 38% .

I’m talking about in the Bronx. In his map only 13 and 15 are majority Hispanic.

Also I feel like any Staten Island district is gonna come across underhanded especially if a new south Brooklyn seat is created because it’s just always gonna be a weird pairing

[ProgressiveModerate]

The other main flaw with Torie's map I see is partisan asymmetry (Which is kinda weird in NY state as a whole because of NYC, but amongst the swing seats).

Based on 538 PVI, most of the competitive or semi competitive seats lean slightly R when the state as a whole leans D. A good map should have a relatively equal number of competitive seats on both sides with a slight skew towards the majority party.

Again, this is pretty nit-picky of me and is only one factor out of many but just a thought.

[Torie]

Mr. Dunn was made aware of the comments above, and understands them (a couple of them may even have perhaps some merit), and is confident, very confident, that the Special Master will draw a fair map. However, one comment that puzzles him (in particular the bit in bold), no matter how many times that he reads it:

"A good map should have a relatively equal number of competitive seats on both sides with a slight skew towards the majority party."

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Mr. Dunn was made aware of the comments above, and understands them (a couple of them even may have some merit), and is confident, very confident, that the Special Master will draw a fair map. However, one comment that puzzles him (in particular the bit in bold), no matter how many times that he reads it:

"A good map should have a relatively equal number of competitive seats on both sides with a slight skew towards the majority party."

Why did he nuke aoc

[Torie]

Mr. Dunn is not here, but I know he bears AOC no malice. I would not however fret too much about that. Justice will be done, all will be happy (except the partisan hacks), and there will be great rejoicing. There is not long to wait now for the coming of the promise land.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Mr. Dunn was made aware of the comments above, and understands them (a couple of them may even have perhaps some merit), and is confident, very confident, that the Special Master will draw a fair map. However, one comment that puzzles him (in particular the bit in bold), no matter how many times that he reads it:

"A good map should have a relatively equal number of competitive seats on both sides with a slight skew towards the majority party."

Basically the idea that the partisan center of mass should be around the states overall partisanship rather than an even PVI. As you get further away from a mass seats around a given partisanship become more sparse. I acknowledge NY is weird since you’re basically redistricying 2 different states (NY and Upstate) but this principle still stands. Think for instance how flawed it’d be if Cali treated even PVI as the center of gravity; either you’d have very few competitive D seats or many unnatural R seats.

Ultimately this is only one consideration and me being picky, but when you look at the comparative seats on your map, there are a lot of narrow R seats relative to lean D seats even though given NY’s overall partisanship one would expect slightly more lean D than R seats. Individually, p much everything is justifiable but overall one can make the case this is slightly unnatural.

Still though overall the map is good.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1524091849920634888

And there we go, the primary can be moved .

[lfromnj]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/11/new-york-redistricting-bath-00031096

Article about the town of Bath.  One thing that still does surprise me a bit is that Stueben County actually almost has 100k people. I have actually been to Corning before, quite a charming museum.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1524091849920634888

And there we go, the primary can be moved .

More time to vote = voter rights under attack! What a clown.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1524091849920634888

And there we go, the primary can be moved .

More time to vote = voter rights under attack! What a clown.

Honestly, he's just a guy doing his job. I only click on it to see the replies of the #resistance .

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1524404036841218049

Statehouse maps upheld.

[Torie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1524404036841218049
Statehouse maps upheld.

Nope, they can still be challenged I think in a separate lawsuit. I presume in fact that there might now be a venue shopping race to the court house in fact. But the illegal maps are in place for 2022.

I was shocked to read the other day, that the Democrats shopped the idea of all the Congresspeople being elected at large because there was no time left to redraw the maps (really?). That idea was struck down by SCOTUS eons ago. One can almost smell the fear in some quarters.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1524404036841218049
Statehouse maps upheld.

Nope, they can still be challenged I think in a separate lawsuit. I presume in fact that there might now be a venue shopping race to the court house in fact. But the illegal maps are in place for 2022.

I was shocked to read the other day, that the Democrats shopped the idea of all the Congresspeople being elected at large because there was no time left to redraw the maps (really?). That idea was struck down by SCOTUS eons ago. One can almost smell the fear in some quarters.

That's why an STV house would require an amendment.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1524404036841218049
Statehouse maps upheld.

Nope, they can still be challenged I think in a separate lawsuit. I presume in fact that there might now be a venue shopping race to the court house in fact. But the illegal maps are in place for 2022.

I was shocked to read the other day, that the Democrats shopped the idea of all the Congresspeople being elected at large because there was no time left to redraw the maps (really?). That idea was struck down by SCOTUS eons ago. One can almost smell the fear in some quarters.

yes my bad, funnily enough the people who filed a claim is some young Republican activist and some Cuomo stan.

[Torie]

As the clock winds down to the witching hour, it is interesting how so much turns on whether NY-03 crosses the Long Island sound into Westchester or not. The Pubs said no, don't go there, so the Pubs chopped NY-04 into Queens and then Brooklyn, driving one of the Dem lawyers into a white rage of anger. Another map, drawn by one Mr. Prieve, did a huge clockwise turn of the map so that via the Staten Island ferry, one goes from Staten Island to downtown Manhattan, making NY-11 forever non competitive, to effect the same objective. I strongly doubt either approach will be adopted. Finally, there is a  beautiful and elegant way, alluded to, albeit with the percentages wrong, in the Dunn submission, as to how to get NY-14's Hispanic percentage up, not just a little bit up, but up over 50% up, it turns out. I think I know, where this is all likely to go, but we shall see.

Mr. Dunn tells me that he had a grand time in Bath, and the pack really enjoyed the splendid countryside, and the discovery of an absolutely awesome new dog park in Oneonta. One nice lady in the park actually already knew about the concept of crack and pack, and wanted to know more. Imagine that?

[lfromnj]

Did mr.dunn visit the glass museum ?

[Torie]

Did mr.dunn visit the glass museum ?

Mr. Dunn did that several years ago, and he highly recommends it. And unlike the disheveled looking Bath (none of the Court staff lives there they tell me), Corning's Main Street and environs is as cute as a button.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do y’all think the map released tmrw will be pretty simillar to the final map or will the final map be something completely different?

My guess is prolly, the exception being if they do a dramatic makeover of NYC and a bunch of minority groups gets upset, then they prolly back off a bit and return to something more simillar to the current map. Upstate especially, a lot of the complaints will have partisan undertones

[ProgressiveModerate]

As the clock winds down to the witching hour, it is interesting how so much turns on whether NY-03 crosses the Long Island sound into Westchester or not. The Pubs said no, don't go there, so the Pubs chopped NY-04 into Queens and then Brooklyn, driving one of the Dem lawyers into a white rage of anger. Another map, drawn by one Mr. Prieve, did a huge clockwise turn of the map so that via the Staten Island ferry, one goes from Staten Island to downtown Manhattan, making NY-11 forever non competitive, to effect the same objective. I strongly doubt either approach will be adopted. Finally, there is a  beautiful and elegant way, alluded to, albeit with the percentages wrong, in the Dunn submission, as to how to get NY-14's Hispanic percentage up, not just a little bit up, but up over 50% up, it turns out. I think I know, where this is all likely to go, but we shall see.

Mr. Dunn tells me that he had a grand time in Bath, and the pack really enjoyed the splendid countryside, and the discovery of an absolutely awesome new dog park in Oneonta. One nice lady in the park actually already knew about the concept of crack and pack, and wanted to know more. Imagine that?

My only rebuttal would be that you seem to be hyper focused on NY-03, NY-11, and what you call NY-14 on your map; even though there’s not a ton of partisan implications drawing good NYC seats matters a lot too. The rotation clockwise is a consequence of population shifts and if you’re creating a new South Brooklyn seat something has to be taken out of Brooklyn as well. Stuff like your NY-12 is quite flimsy from a COI standpoint imo.

There’s def no ideal nyc config cause there’s like too many communities to try and represent with too few districts. Imo my map does the best job at balancing all the seats and interest of minority groups well.

[Torie]

Sorry you could not make it to Queens. That was an interesting experience.