2020 New York Redistricting

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

New York Dems should really just pull an Ohio GOP and ignore the courts. Its what all the cool kids are doing now.

Except, the Court ruled the IRC has the power to redistrict, and, the legislature does not. That is a very hard ruling to ignore.

The Ohio Supreme Court blinked, apparently, for the Congressional map, and, federal courts intervened on the legislative ones.

I don't foresee the Federal Courts not deferring to the New York Court of Appeals.

Let ‘em enforce it

I mean, I know I was saying this earlier, but if we totally ignore the courts, republicans will do it too. Plus we might get a d favorable map anyway from the special master. Also, now that I think of it, McCarthy could refuse to seat the democrats in  gerrymandered seats

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1520082082776637453?s=20&t=RaHefkU8jVYjSI5i...

Seems like Democrats are now allowed to submit a map.

[BigSkyBob]

New York Dems should really just pull an Ohio GOP and ignore the courts. Its what all the cool kids are doing now.

Except, the Court ruled the IRC has the power to redistrict, and, the legislature does not. That is a very hard ruling to ignore.

The Ohio Supreme Court blinked, apparently, for the Congressional map, and, federal courts intervened on the legislative ones.

I don't foresee the Federal Courts not deferring to the New York Court of Appeals.

Let ‘em enforce it

Inasmuch as the Federal Courts have a mandate to ensure that states have a "Republican form of government," whatever that means, I would be loath to test them. Federal Courts have been loath to involve themselves with state affairs, but, if some state's administration were to try to hold elections on districts that the state has definitively determined to be against that's states Constitution, the Federal Courts would be forced to open that can of worms.

[Gass3268]

New York Dems should really just pull an Ohio GOP and ignore the courts. Its what all the cool kids are doing now.

Except, the Court ruled the IRC has the power to redistrict, and, the legislature does not. That is a very hard ruling to ignore.

The Ohio Supreme Court blinked, apparently, for the Congressional map, and, federal courts intervened on the legislative ones.

I don't foresee the Federal Courts not deferring to the New York Court of Appeals.

Let ‘em enforce it

I mean, I know I was saying this earlier, but if we totally ignore the courts, republicans will do it too. Plus we might get a d favorable map anyway from the special master. Also, now that I think of it, McCarthy could refuse to seat the democrats in  gerrymandered seats

I mean, Republicans already do.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mcpli/status/1520122816762425344

If as Torie says the federal question is done with, NY Democrats might just make some lemonade by pushing the other primaries as well to get rid of Lt gov Benjamin

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mcpli/status/1520122816762425344

If as Torie says the federal question is done with, NY Democrats might just make some lemonade by pushing the other primaries as well to get rid of Lt gov Benjamin

No they will probably appeal to SCOTUS

[MillennialModerate]

Can someone explain to me why “the right” on social media and otherwise thinks that the special master is a “Democrat” and that the maps won’t be that much better for Republicans?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Can someone explain to me why “the right” on social media and otherwise thinks that the special master is a “Democrat” and that the maps won’t be that much better for Republicans?

Because he likely is a democrat and drew the PA map? I mean, Conor Lamb's district and Houlahan's districts are particularly gerrymandered to benefit democrats

[lfromnj]

Can someone explain to me why “the right” on social media and otherwise thinks that the special master is a “Democrat” and that the maps won’t be that much better for Republicans?

He is either Democratic biased or prefers partisan fairness . He drew the pa state leg maps which are discussed here as a mild to medium gerrymander for the state house where geography is disfavorable to Democrats..
However the maps will definitely be much better for Republicans  than the enacted maps. Our guess is there be some slightly D favorable moves by Mr.Cervas as he may be fearful towards Democrats nationwide prospects . Overall this is still an unmitigated disaster for Democrats.

[Torie]

Can someone explain to me why “the right” on social media and otherwise thinks that the special master is a “Democrat” and that the maps won’t be that much better for Republicans?

He is either Democratic biased or prefers partisan fairness . He drew the pa state leg maps which are discussed here as a mild to medium gerrymander for the state house where geography is disfavorable to Democrats..
However the maps will definitely be much better for Republicans  than the enacted maps. Our guess is there be some slightly D favorable moves by Mr.Cervas as he may be fearful towards Democrats nationwide prospects . Overall this is still an unmitigated disaster for Democrats.

Who is "our?"

I don't think Cervas is that biased myself, if at all. Where he had two reasonable choices, he picked the one that effected better proportionality. He didn't do anything that was out there.

[lfromnj]

Can someone explain to me why “the right” on social media and otherwise thinks that the special master is a “Democrat” and that the maps won’t be that much better for Republicans?

He is either Democratic biased or prefers partisan fairness . He drew the pa state leg maps which are discussed here as a mild to medium gerrymander for the state house where geography is disfavorable to Democrats..
However the maps will definitely be much better for Republicans  than the enacted maps. Our guess is there be some slightly D favorable moves by Mr.Cervas as he may be fearful towards Democrats nationwide prospects . Overall this is still an unmitigated disaster for Democrats.

Who is "our?"

I don't think Cervas is that biased myself, if at all. Where he had two reasonable choices, he picked the one that effected better proportionality. He didn't do anything that was out there.

I mean the state house map not only goes for PR but ruins any competitive seats for Republicans in many various areas. Democrats would still have 3 super safe state house seats even under DeFoor's impressive 2020 numbers in the Harrisburg area.

[lfromnj]

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-assembly-districts-maps-court-of-appeals-new-york-redistricting-20220429-7aw3ebqwbbbvhe3kr5kjxc3ofe-story.html

Lawsuit for assembly districts should come soon.

[Schiff for Senate]

New York Dems should really just pull an Ohio GOP and ignore the courts. Its what all the cool kids are doing now.

Well they could do that but it could be risky. It could end up like OH, where the courts just give up and the gerrymandering party get away, or like NC, where the courts double down and decide to take matters entirely into their own hands, thereby giving the gerrymandering party no opportunity to have a say in the matter any longer.

If NY Democrats are being given another chance, if I was them what I'd do is correct most of the gerrymandering but leave a little bit so the map is still beneficial to Democrats. Specifically, to play it safe, maybe they can just give up on Staten Island and Long Island and focus on more modest goals - shoring up Delgado's seat (it just barely voted for Biden under the 2010s iteration) as well as S.P. Maloney's, and bluening up Katko's seat (though only a little bit because he's retired anyway and by 2025 this seat should be in Democratic hands).

[MillennialModerate]

So the Hochul map was 22-4 right?

The current map is 19-8 / Dem wave 21-6 / GOP Wave 18-9 /

What’s the BEST Democrats can hope for?

A “fair map” is 16-10.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6bf10af9-77e1-4470-a7ab-59bf77e9172b
Linked the GOP proposal
https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1520378110528696320?cxt=HHwWgMC9pcL1u5kqAAAA

Honestly if I was the Democrats I would push for this upstate configuration. It still leaves Delgado with a Biden seat which is pretty good for him there as most configurations would leave him with a Trump seat, and has that weird Mondaire Jones arm for 17 which helps out Maloney a bit.    

Like If I were the Dems I would just say I "settle" for this upstate configuration and then push some downstate configuration that uses whole counties in LI.

[Zaybay]

So the Hochul map was 22-4 right?

The current map is 19-8 / Dem wave 21-6 / GOP Wave 18-9 /

What’s the BEST Democrats can hope for?

A “fair map” is 16-10.

I have no idea where you even got the idea that a 16-10 map is fair/even possible. Not even the GOP proposal gives them 10 seats.

Albany, Rochester, and Buffalo are 3 D seats. NYC, even in its most R friendly configuration (1 Staten Island seat, 1 Orthodox seat that probably voted for Clinton), gives the Dems 11 safe seats. That's already 14, and we haven't even looked into the configuration of LI, the Hudson River Valley, Syracuse/Ithaca, or pointed out that giving NYC the most R friendly configuration in NYC is distinctly not fair.

In all likelihood, the map produced is likely gonna be somewhat similar to the 2010s era map. We can likely expect 4 urban seats upstate (Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, Albany), as well as 12 Dem seats based in NYC (1 R seat being given to either the Orthodox or Staten Island). You're also likely to get the 2 Dem leaning seats that immediately border the city on Long Island.

The only big questions are how the Hudson River Valley is configured, as well as the remaining two Long Island seats. For the former, you could get anywhere from Biden winning all 3 by small/decent margins, to Biden winning only 1 by a large margin and Trump winning the other two by small/decent margins. For the remaining two Long Island seats, you could see one D leaning and one R leaning seat, or two very close seats that may have voted for either Biden or Trump.

The larger point here is that the big change from going from the Dem gerry to a fair map is largely just that seats become more competitive, rather than the Rs being given seats. The details of the map will matter a ton, of course, in determining if many of these seats flip or simply remain close, but we're unlikely to see full-on R safe seats being created or safe D seats being dismantled.

[OBD]

A humble proposal for upstate New York. Extremely compact, competitive, and fair!

[MillennialModerate]

So the Hochul map was 22-4 right?

The current map is 19-8 / Dem wave 21-6 / GOP Wave 18-9 /

What’s the BEST Democrats can hope for?

A “fair map” is 16-10.

I have no idea where you even got the idea that a 16-10 map is fair/even possible. Not even the GOP proposal gives them 10 seats.

Albany, Rochester, and Buffalo are 3 D seats. NYC, even in its most R friendly configuration (1 Staten Island seat, 1 Orthodox seat that probably voted for Clinton), gives the Dems 11 safe seats. That's already 14, and we haven't even looked into the configuration of LI, the Hudson River Valley, Syracuse/Ithaca, or pointed out that giving NYC the most R friendly configuration in NYC is distinctly not fair.

In all likelihood, the map produced is likely gonna be somewhat similar to the 2010s era map. We can likely expect 4 urban seats upstate (Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, Albany), as well as 12 Dem seats based in NYC (1 R seat being given to either the Orthodox or Staten Island). You're also likely to get the 2 Dem leaning seats that immediately border the city on Long Island.

The only big questions are how the Hudson River Valley is configured, as well as the remaining two Long Island seats. For the former, you could get anywhere from Biden winning all 3 by small/decent margins, to Biden winning only 1 by a large margin and Trump winning the other two by small/decent margins. For the remaining two Long Island seats, you could see one D leaning and one R leaning seat, or two very close seats that may have voted for either Biden or Trump.

The larger point here is that the big change from going from the Dem gerry to a fair map is largely just that seats become more competitive, rather than the Rs being given seats. The details of the map will matter a ton, of course, in determining if many of these seats flip or simply remain close, but we're unlikely to see full-on R safe seats being created or safe D seats being dismantled.

To me “fair” map is an accurate representation of the popular vote in House races from the previous decade. And Dems average 61% of the vote

[MillennialModerate]

So the Hochul map was 22-4 right?

The current map is 19-8 / Dem wave 21-6 / GOP Wave 18-9 /

What’s the BEST Democrats can hope for?

A “fair map” is 16-10.

I have no idea where you even got the idea that a 16-10 map is fair/even possible. Not even the GOP proposal gives them 10 seats.

Albany, Rochester, and Buffalo are 3 D seats. NYC, even in its most R friendly configuration (1 Staten Island seat, 1 Orthodox seat that probably voted for Clinton), gives the Dems 11 safe seats. That's already 14, and we haven't even looked into the configuration of LI, the Hudson River Valley, Syracuse/Ithaca, or pointed out that giving NYC the most R friendly configuration in NYC is distinctly not fair.

In all likelihood, the map produced is likely gonna be somewhat similar to the 2010s era map. We can likely expect 4 urban seats upstate (Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, Albany), as well as 12 Dem seats based in NYC (1 R seat being given to either the Orthodox or Staten Island). You're also likely to get the 2 Dem leaning seats that immediately border the city on Long Island.

The only big questions are how the Hudson River Valley is configured, as well as the remaining two Long Island seats. For the former, you could get anywhere from Biden winning all 3 by small/decent margins, to Biden winning only 1 by a large margin and Trump winning the other two by small/decent margins. For the remaining two Long Island seats, you could see one D leaning and one R leaning seat, or two very close seats that may have voted for either Biden or Trump.

The larger point here is that the big change from going from the Dem gerry to a fair map is largely just that seats become more competitive, rather than the Rs being given seats. The details of the map will matter a ton, of course, in determining if many of these seats flip or simply remain close, but we're unlikely to see full-on R safe seats being created or safe D seats being dismantled.

Good analysis. To me a 20-6 map would salvage a prayer for Dem hopes in a Non-wave year. Anything lower than that - forget it

[lfromnj]

So the Hochul map was 22-4 right?

The current map is 19-8 / Dem wave 21-6 / GOP Wave 18-9 /

What’s the BEST Democrats can hope for?

A “fair map” is 16-10.

I have no idea where you even got the idea that a 16-10 map is fair/even possible. Not even the GOP proposal gives them 10 seats.

Albany, Rochester, and Buffalo are 3 D seats. NYC, even in its most R friendly configuration (1 Staten Island seat, 1 Orthodox seat that probably voted for Clinton), gives the Dems 11 safe seats. That's already 14, and we haven't even looked into the configuration of LI, the Hudson River Valley, Syracuse/Ithaca, or pointed out that giving NYC the most R friendly configuration in NYC is distinctly not fair.

In all likelihood, the map produced is likely gonna be somewhat similar to the 2010s era map. We can likely expect 4 urban seats upstate (Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, Albany), as well as 12 Dem seats based in NYC (1 R seat being given to either the Orthodox or Staten Island). You're also likely to get the 2 Dem leaning seats that immediately border the city on Long Island.

The only big questions are how the Hudson River Valley is configured, as well as the remaining two Long Island seats. For the former, you could get anywhere from Biden winning all 3 by small/decent margins, to Biden winning only 1 by a large margin and Trump winning the other two by small/decent margins. For the remaining two Long Island seats, you could see one D leaning and one R leaning seat, or two very close seats that may have voted for either Biden or Trump.

The larger point here is that the big change from going from the Dem gerry to a fair map is largely just that seats become more competitive, rather than the Rs being given seats. The details of the map will matter a ton, of course, in determining if many of these seats flip or simply remain close, but we're unlikely to see full-on R safe seats being created or safe D seats being dismantled.

To me “fair” map is an accurate representation of the popular vote in House races from the previous decade. And Dems average 61% of the vote

Not how fairness works.  It would never be proportional due to FPTP, so you should expect other ratios such as either the square ratio,cube ratio or the "efficiency gap" which is approximately double.



New York State is pretty unique in that there is a relatively clear dividing line one can use to seperate the state into 2 sections.  Blue is Trump +2 in 2016 and Biden +5 in 2020 and has 10 districts. Red is Biden +38 and Clinton +41 and has 16 districts. Within Blue you can certainly expect 3 Safe D districts in Rochester/Albany/Buffalo along with 1 Safe R Western district. The rest should all be varying degrees of competitive unless you draw Syracuse with Ithaca which also makes that a Safe D district.

Red should have a few swingy districts on Long Island including atleast 1 Trump district and possibly 2* and Southern Brooklyn and/or Staten Island has the strength to support 1 GOP district and one could theoretically draw 2.

Drawing 2 seats comes semi naturally although will heavily mess up other districts.

[GregTheGreat657]

A humble proposal for upstate New York. Extremely compact, competitive, and fair!

I could see there being VRA issue with this in Buffalo

[lfromnj]

A humble proposal for upstate New York. Extremely compact, competitive, and fair!

I could see there being VRA issue with this in Buffalo

Buffalo isn't a VRA seat lol. Even the city itself isn't majority black.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1520511588100362241

Ny dems pull an ohio r. Submit the same map outside of LI

[Torie]

The Dems bless them could not agree upon who should be tossed overboard, or severely inconvenienced. So they submitted about the same map that the Courts rejected, and will let the special master and the trial judge decide that issue. Perfectly reasonable when you think about it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Did you know it is possible to draw a 30% Asian district in Southern Brooklyn?