2020 New York Redistricting

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah the thing is about Williamsburg , is that literally nobody besides AOC who is all the way in the Bronx actually wants those Crane Husband progressives so you might as well dump him with Staten Island.

Is it possible to dump most of Williamsburg in NY-11?

Probably not as far as there, mostly to Dumbo. Nadler and Maloney still need to expand out so Manhattan can keep 3 districts.  But the point stands, just let these annoying progressive primary voters have a district where they control the dem primary rather than keep giving scares to everyone.

I dunno if Maloney wants her seat to expand even more outside Manhattan. If anything, any further movement outside of Manhattan could sink her in a future primary.
She needs more of Manhattan, not less.

[lfromnj]

Yeah the thing is about Williamsburg , is that literally nobody besides AOC who is all the way in the Bronx actually wants those Crane Husband progressives so you might as well dump him with Staten Island.

Is it possible to dump most of Williamsburg in NY-11?

Probably not as far as there, mostly to Dumbo. Nadler and Maloney still need to expand out so Manhattan can keep 3 districts.  But the point stands, just let these annoying progressive primary voters have a district where they control the dem primary rather than keep giving scares to everyone.

I dunno if Maloney wants her seat to expand even more outside Manhattan. If anything, any further movement outside of Manhattan could sink her in a future primary.
She needs more of Manhattan, not less.

I didn't mean more of outside of Manhattan but if you draw it all the way to Williamsburg you block any expansion down South and East. Can really only go to Park Slope.

The other question is who to give the Orthodox to. Nadler can take some and I guess Jeffries can take the rest.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A little fair map of NY, in a thread all about gerrymandering.
[snip]

Nice map.
I am fine with the images, please keep them up.
Thank you.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah the thing is about Williamsburg , is that literally nobody besides AOC who is all the way in the Bronx actually wants those Crane Husband progressives so you might as well dump him with Staten Island.

Is it possible to dump most of Williamsburg in NY-11?

Probably not as far as there, mostly to Dumbo. Nadler and Maloney still need to expand out so Manhattan can keep 3 districts.  But the point stands, just let these annoying progressive primary voters have a district where they control the dem primary rather than keep giving scares to everyone.

I dunno if Maloney wants her seat to expand even more outside Manhattan. If anything, any further movement outside of Manhattan could sink her in a future primary.
She needs more of Manhattan, not less.

I didn't mean more of outside of Manhattan but if you draw it all the way to Williamsburg you block any expansion down South and East. Can really only go to Park Slope.

The other question is who to give the Orthodox to. Nadler can take some and I guess Jeffries can take the rest.

Ah, I see. Yeah, there are areas that are better for her and worse for her. I can see why Williamsburg would be a good addition in this context.

[lfromnj]

Yeah the thing is about Williamsburg , is that literally nobody besides AOC who is all the way in the Bronx actually wants those Crane Husband progressives so you might as well dump him with Staten Island.

Is it possible to dump most of Williamsburg in NY-11?

Probably not as far as there, mostly to Dumbo. Nadler and Maloney still need to expand out so Manhattan can keep 3 districts.  But the point stands, just let these annoying progressive primary voters have a district where they control the dem primary rather than keep giving scares to everyone.

I dunno if Maloney wants her seat to expand even more outside Manhattan. If anything, any further movement outside of Manhattan could sink her in a future primary.
She needs more of Manhattan, not less.

I didn't mean more of outside of Manhattan but if you draw it all the way to Williamsburg you block any expansion down South and East. Can really only go to Park Slope.

The other question is who to give the Orthodox to. Nadler can take some and I guess Jeffries can take the rest.

Ah, I see. Yeah, there are areas that are better for her and worse for her. I can see why Williamsburg would be a good addition in this context.

It's not really good its just Manhattan has the pop for 2.1 or 2.2 districts but it will get 3 . Such is the rule of NYC.

[Torie]

A court holding that the "unduly favors" language in the NYS Constitution is to be applied on a national basis would be well, novel. The Dem Florida Supreme Court I believe did tank the Pubmander there applying those words.

In the Florida thread, I thought those words would preclude the Tampa CD going to St. Pete. and chopping it to grab the black hoods.

[Brittain33]

A court holding that the "unduly favors" language in the NYS Constitution is to be applied on a national basis would be well, novel. The Dem Florida Supreme Court I believe did tank the Pubmander there applying those words.

In the Florida thread, I thought those words would preclude the Tampa CD going to St. Pete. and chopping it to grab the black hoods.

I thought this was the key language in the Amendment that led to revisions: “where feasible must make use of existing city, county and geographical boundaries”

[Torie]

A court holding that the "unduly favors" language in the NYS Constitution is to be applied on a national basis would be well, novel. The Dem Florida Supreme Court I believe did tank the Pubmander there applying those words.

In the Florida thread, I thought those words would preclude the Tampa CD going to St. Pete. and chopping it to grab the black hoods.

I thought this was the key language in the Amendment that led to revisions: “where feasible must make use of existing city, county and geographical boundaries”

Are you talking about Florida or NY, and the "key" in what context?

The Florida decision can be accessed at the link below. It is the League of Women Voters case issued in July of 2014. It focuses on the intent to draw districts favoring one party metric. The chopping was a sideshow to trash the Brown CD, FL-05. I am sure the Pubs will be extensively referring to this decision, when they sue in NYS. What is good for the goose is good for the gander.  If the NYS judges are going to be hacks, make them sweat and embarrass themselves, and be reviled by their peers.


https://www.floridasupremecourt.org/search?query=redistricting&searchtype=opinions

[Antonio the Sixth]

That's pretty vague language honestly, as "feasible" and "make use of" are highly subjective terms. A gerrymandering-friendly court seems like it can easily make a mockery of them.

Really, the rule should be laid out clearly:
1. Any county and any municipality (in states where municipal boundaries make sense) must have as many districts fully contained within it as the lower integer of its population divided by the population of the average district.
2. The total number of counties and municipalities with a population smaller than the average district to be split between multiple districts must not exceed the total number of districts in the state minus one.

These are rules with actual teeth that make intuitive sense and are effective at ensuring respect of existing boundaries.

[Torie]

That's pretty vague language honestly, as "feasible" and "make use of" are highly subjective terms. A gerrymandering-friendly court seems like it can easily make a mockery of them.

Really, the rule should be laid out clearly:
1. Any county and any municipality (in states where municipal boundaries make sense) must have as many districts fully contained within it as the lower integer of its population divided by the population of the average district.
2. The total number of counties and municipalities with a population smaller than the average district to be split between multiple districts must not exceed the total number of districts in the state minus one.

These are rules with actual teeth that make intuitive sense and are effective at ensuring respect of existing boundaries.

That has teeth, but may end up with a hideously erose map, and such strictures do not stop gerrymandering.


Muon2 has concocted the best algorithm that I have seen. You have a series of metrics: 1) minimizing chops, 2) minimizing population inequality, 3) minimizing erosity (however defined, he uses highway cuts between county seats), and 4) partisan proportionality or fairness, with maybe, as  between maps that are close to "fair," however defined, the one which has the most swing districts, however swing is defined, preferred, and then as long as a map is the best beating out all of the other maps as to one of the metrics, it is legal to adopt under a pareto optimality regime. That takes egregious gerrymanders off the table using objective criteria that have no subjective factor at all.

Another way to put it, is that a black box generates the maps, and then the legislature picks one from the 4 or 5 maps the black box generates that are legal. Notice that when using this algorithm, maps with a higher population inequality must have offset that by such inequality creating fewer chops, reducing erosity, or improving fairness however defined. Among maps with exactly equal population, ones that are the very best on another metric must be chosen, so the max a gerrymander can do is one that has the fewest chops, the least erosity, or is the most fair. I suspect in NYS, that means the Dems would have to minimize chops. Muon2 tries in large jurisdictions, where you have more than 5% of the size of a CD, to then use sub-jurisdictions, say within NYC boroughs, community planning districts.

The only subjectivity left would be defining what is legal under the VRA, where most of the ambiguity revolves around what is compact enough to trigger Gingles. And, as you know, federal law has constraints on the degree of population inequality.

[Dan the Roman]

Expecting much from the NYC courts in 2021 ignores

1. Hackery
2. That for those who aren't hacks, what sort of good government Democratic lawyer/law professor in the New York City area does not view the Republican party as a threat to Democracy and a GOP house as likely to overturn a presidential election? Serious question. One does not need to be a hack to believe that there are higher moral and patriotic principles at stake and that social clique is almost entirely onboard.

It is probably an error to assume any sort of morality, integrity or patriotism would push a NYC D legal guy or gal towards ever doing anything that might advantage a GOP US House majority. Even if it is not conscious, they will grasp at any plausible justification to uphold D gerrymanders, not matter how tenuous. It will be for the "greater good"

[CookieDamage]

Expecting much from the NYC courts in 2021 ignores

1. Hackery
2. That for those who aren't hacks, what sort of good government Democratic lawyer/law professor in the New York City area does not view the Republican party as a threat to Democracy and a GOP house as likely to overturn a presidential election? Serious question. One does not need to be a hack to believe that there are higher moral and patriotic principles at stake and that social clique is almost entirely onboard.

It is probably an error to assume any sort of morality, integrity or patriotism would push a NYC D legal guy or gal towards ever doing anything that might advantage a GOP US House majority. Even if it is not conscious, they will grasp at any plausible justification to uphold D gerrymanders, not matter how tenuous. It will be for the "greater good"

And i support them

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e7ccc24-4f4b-45be-9f1f-95a4328c45b3

Tried my hand at a full 23-3 NY map. All districts except 24 are Biden + 10 or greater (NY-24 comes in at Biden + 9.5). I tried to make it relatively compact considering the severity of the gerrymander.

NY-01 can't be made into an effective D seat without a snake, because of weird LI political geography.

I tried to make NYC fair from a VRA standpoint but that wasn't my focus and some VRA issues can be solved without touching any of the more marginal seats outside the city.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e7ccc24-4f4b-45be-9f1f-95a4328c45b3

Tried my hand at a full 23-3 NY map. All districts except 24 are Biden + 10 or greater (NY-24 comes in at Biden + 9.5). I tried to make it relatively compact considering the severity of the gerrymander.

NY-01 can't be made into an effective D seat without a snake, because of weird LI political geography.

I tried to make NYC fair from a VRA standpoint but that wasn't my focus and some VRA issues can be solved without touching any of the more marginal seats outside the city.

Aoc ):

[GALeftist]

Personally I don't expect a 23-3 map; it requires a lot of messing around with NY-25 and NY-26 and a lot of ugly lines which I can't see the entire caucus agreeing to. A 22-4 map, on the other hand, is very feasible and is probably what I'd bet on, since weird lines need to be drawn in the east for good incumbent protection anyway and two flips downstate don't really disadvantage any incumbents. Here's what I hope the map might look like:






(I know more about NY than PA, but still not that much, so it's possible I've done something very wrong here. Also don't pay too much attention to the NYC lines, I attempted to keep the districts basically similar but it's very possible that I double bunked incumbents or something. All the upstate Democrats definitely live in their districts though.)

Anyways, this map was drawn to mostly minimize county and town chops, except in Long Island, where the lack of political geography makes that basically impossible. Rochester and Buffalo get their own Safe D seats in exchange for an additional R pack upstate. All blue districts are Biden+10 or more: the least blue district is Delgado's new (and substantially changed, it now goes from his home in Rhinebeck out to Binghamton) 19th at Biden+10.2. Malliotakis is probably doomed in her new Biden+13 seat that goes up to Cobble Hill, and the new Biden+11 NY-01 should be an layup in most years for the Democrats. Katko's NY-24 gets fed all of Tompkins to make the district Biden+15; if he still wins, especially with Trump doing his utmost to keep him from doing so, he's honestly earned the seat. Other districts of note are Sean Patrick Maloney's NY-18, which goes from his home in Cold Spring up to take in the city of Albany and Paul Tonko's NY-20, which takes in much of the rest of Albany County and goes up to his home in Amsterdam and all the way up to Plattsburgh. This map also holds up for 2016, although a few districts are within 3 points.

Thoughts?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Personally I don't expect a 23-3 map; it requires a lot of messing around with NY-25 and NY-26 and a lot of ugly lines which I can't see the entire caucus agreeing to. A 22-4 map, on the other hand, is very feasible and is probably what I'd bet on, since weird lines need to be drawn in the east for good incumbent protection anyway and two flips downstate don't really disadvantage any incumbents. Here's what I hope the map might look like:






(I know more about NY than PA, but still not that much, so it's possible I've done something very wrong here. Also don't pay too much attention to the NYC lines, I attempted to keep the districts basically similar but it's very possible that I double bunked incumbents or something. All the upstate Democrats definitely live in their districts though.)

Anyways, this map was drawn to mostly minimize county and town chops, except in Long Island, where the lack of political geography makes that basically impossible. Rochester and Buffalo get their own Safe D seats in exchange for an additional R pack upstate. All blue districts are Biden+10 or more: the least blue district is Delgado's new (and substantially changed, it now goes from his home in Rhinebeck out to Binghamton) 19th at Biden+10.2. Malliotakis is probably doomed in her new Biden+13 seat that goes up to Cobble Hill, and the new Biden+11 NY-01 should be an layup in most years for the Democrats. Katko's NY-24 gets fed all of Tompkins to make the district Biden+15; if he still wins, especially with Trump doing his utmost to keep him from doing so, he's honestly earned the seat. Other districts of note are Sean Patrick Maloney's NY-18, which goes from his home in Cold Spring up to take in the city of Albany and Paul Tonko's NY-20, which takes in much of the rest of Albany County and goes up to his home in Amsterdam and all the way up to Plattsburgh.

Thoughts?

That 3rd is a district I don't think I've ever seen drawn before.
What would be the dominant demographics in it? (especially within the White population)

[Mr.Phips]

Personally I don't expect a 23-3 map; it requires a lot of messing around with NY-25 and NY-26 and a lot of ugly lines which I can't see the entire caucus agreeing to. A 22-4 map, on the other hand, is very feasible and is probably what I'd bet on, since weird lines need to be drawn in the east for good incumbent protection anyway and two flips downstate don't really disadvantage any incumbents. Here's what I hope the map might look like:






(I know more about NY than PA, but still not that much, so it's possible I've done something very wrong here. Also don't pay too much attention to the NYC lines, I attempted to keep the districts basically similar but it's very possible that I double bunked incumbents or something. All the upstate Democrats definitely live in their districts though.)

Anyways, this map was drawn to mostly minimize county and town chops, except in Long Island, where the lack of political geography makes that basically impossible. Rochester and Buffalo get their own Safe D seats in exchange for an additional R pack upstate. All blue districts are Biden+10 or more: the least blue district is Delgado's new (and substantially changed, it now goes from his home in Rhinebeck out to Binghamton) 19th at Biden+10.2. Malliotakis is probably doomed in her new Biden+13 seat that goes up to Cobble Hill, and the new Biden+11 NY-01 should be an layup in most years for the Democrats. Katko's NY-24 gets fed all of Tompkins to make the district Biden+15; if he still wins, especially with Trump doing his utmost to keep him from doing so, he's honestly earned the seat. Other districts of note are Sean Patrick Maloney's NY-18, which goes from his home in Cold Spring up to take in the city of Albany and Paul Tonko's NY-20, which takes in much of the rest of Albany County and goes up to his home in Amsterdam and all the way up to Plattsburgh. This map also holds up for 2016, although a few districts are within 3 points.

Thoughts?

I’d guess more like 21-5.  Now that NY-03 is open they are likely going to have to concede two LI seats in order to keep NY-03 and NY-04 Dem.  They will also likely need concede three upstate seats (two in western NY and one in the Adirondacks).

[GALeftist]

That 3rd is a district I don't think I've ever seen drawn before.
What would be the dominant demographics in it? (especially within the White population)

The fruits of my attempt to have a district solely within Nassau and a reasonably black 5th A definite majority of it is in Nassau, over 500,000 of its people. It's 48.3% white, 20% Hispanic, 13% Black, 17% Asian. There are a number of liberal whites in North Hempstead and Glen Cove, as well as some more conservative whites in Hempstead, Rockaway, and Howard Beach. It also takes in some very diverse Queens precincts which weren't really needed for any of the minority influence districts. I doubt a district like this would actually be drawn, although it would certainly be an interesting place.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That 3rd is a district I don't think I've ever seen drawn before.
What would be the dominant demographics in it? (especially within the White population)

The fruits of my attempt to have a district solely within Nassau and a reasonably black 5th A definite majority of it is in Nassau, over 500,000 of its people. It's 48.3% white, 20% Hispanic, 13% Black, 17% Asian. There are a number of liberal whites in North Hempstead, as well as some more conservative whites in Hempstead, Rockaway, and Howard Beach. It also takes in some very diverse Queens precincts which weren't really needed for any of the minority influence districts. I doubt a district like this would actually be drawn, although it would certainly be an interesting place.

I was talking about White sub-groups like Italian, Irish, Russian, etc. But that is certainly a way to look at it.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Personally I don't expect a 23-3 map; it requires a lot of messing around with NY-25 and NY-26 and a lot of ugly lines which I can't see the entire caucus agreeing to. A 22-4 map, on the other hand, is very feasible and is probably what I'd bet on, since weird lines need to be drawn in the east for good incumbent protection anyway and two flips downstate don't really disadvantage any incumbents. Here's what I hope the map might look like:






(I know more about NY than PA, but still not that much, so it's possible I've done something very wrong here. Also don't pay too much attention to the NYC lines, I attempted to keep the districts basically similar but it's very possible that I double bunked incumbents or something. All the upstate Democrats definitely live in their districts though.)

Anyways, this map was drawn to mostly minimize county and town chops, except in Long Island, where the lack of political geography makes that basically impossible. Rochester and Buffalo get their own Safe D seats in exchange for an additional R pack upstate. All blue districts are Biden+10 or more: the least blue district is Delgado's new (and substantially changed, it now goes from his home in Rhinebeck out to Binghamton) 19th at Biden+10.2. Malliotakis is probably doomed in her new Biden+13 seat that goes up to Cobble Hill, and the new Biden+11 NY-01 should be an layup in most years for the Democrats. Katko's NY-24 gets fed all of Tompkins to make the district Biden+15; if he still wins, especially with Trump doing his utmost to keep him from doing so, he's honestly earned the seat. Other districts of note are Sean Patrick Maloney's NY-18, which goes from his home in Cold Spring up to take in the city of Albany and Paul Tonko's NY-20, which takes in much of the rest of Albany County and goes up to his home in Amsterdam and all the way up to Plattsburgh. This map also holds up for 2016, although a few districts are within 3 points.

Thoughts?

What's NY-17?

[GALeftist]

What's NY-17?

Mondaire Jones lives in the dark blue one, with all of Rockland and some of Westchester and Orange. Jamaal Bowman lives in the lime green, with most of Westchester and little bits of Putnam and the Bronx.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Personally I don't expect a 23-3 map; it requires a lot of messing around with NY-25 and NY-26 and a lot of ugly lines which I can't see the entire caucus agreeing to. A 22-4 map, on the other hand, is very feasible and is probably what I'd bet on, since weird lines need to be drawn in the east for good incumbent protection anyway and two flips downstate don't really disadvantage any incumbents. Here's what I hope the map might look like:






(I know more about NY than PA, but still not that much, so it's possible I've done something very wrong here. Also don't pay too much attention to the NYC lines, I attempted to keep the districts basically similar but it's very possible that I double bunked incumbents or something. All the upstate Democrats definitely live in their districts though.)

Anyways, this map was drawn to mostly minimize county and town chops, except in Long Island, where the lack of political geography makes that basically impossible. Rochester and Buffalo get their own Safe D seats in exchange for an additional R pack upstate. All blue districts are Biden+10 or more: the least blue district is Delgado's new (and substantially changed, it now goes from his home in Rhinebeck out to Binghamton) 19th at Biden+10.2. Malliotakis is probably doomed in her new Biden+13 seat that goes up to Cobble Hill, and the new Biden+11 NY-01 should be an layup in most years for the Democrats. Katko's NY-24 gets fed all of Tompkins to make the district Biden+15; if he still wins, especially with Trump doing his utmost to keep him from doing so, he's honestly earned the seat. Other districts of note are Sean Patrick Maloney's NY-18, which goes from his home in Cold Spring up to take in the city of Albany and Paul Tonko's NY-20, which takes in much of the rest of Albany County and goes up to his home in Amsterdam and all the way up to Plattsburgh. This map also holds up for 2016, although a few districts are within 3 points.

Thoughts?

I’d guess more like 21-5.  Now that NY-03 is open they are likely going to have to concede two LI seats in order to keep NY-03 and NY-04 Dem.  They will also likely need concede three upstate seats (two in western NY and one in the Adirondacks).

They really don’t need to do that, especially in Long Island

[ProgressiveModerate]

Personally I don't expect a 23-3 map; it requires a lot of messing around with NY-25 and NY-26 and a lot of ugly lines which I can't see the entire caucus agreeing to. A 22-4 map, on the other hand, is very feasible and is probably what I'd bet on, since weird lines need to be drawn in the east for good incumbent protection anyway and two flips downstate don't really disadvantage any incumbents. Here's what I hope the map might look like:






(I know more about NY than PA, but still not that much, so it's possible I've done something very wrong here. Also don't pay too much attention to the NYC lines, I attempted to keep the districts basically similar but it's very possible that I double bunked incumbents or something. All the upstate Democrats definitely live in their districts though.)

Anyways, this map was drawn to mostly minimize county and town chops, except in Long Island, where the lack of political geography makes that basically impossible. Rochester and Buffalo get their own Safe D seats in exchange for an additional R pack upstate. All blue districts are Biden+10 or more: the least blue district is Delgado's new (and substantially changed, it now goes from his home in Rhinebeck out to Binghamton) 19th at Biden+10.2. Malliotakis is probably doomed in her new Biden+13 seat that goes up to Cobble Hill, and the new Biden+11 NY-01 should be an layup in most years for the Democrats. Katko's NY-24 gets fed all of Tompkins to make the district Biden+15; if he still wins, especially with Trump doing his utmost to keep him from doing so, he's honestly earned the seat. Other districts of note are Sean Patrick Maloney's NY-18, which goes from his home in Cold Spring up to take in the city of Albany and Paul Tonko's NY-20, which takes in much of the rest of Albany County and goes up to his home in Amsterdam and all the way up to Plattsburgh.

Thoughts?

That 3rd is a district I don't think I've ever seen drawn before.
What would be the dominant demographics in it? (especially within the White population)

Good map.

As you kind brought up no D Gerry of Long Island will be clean, but it’d argue an R “vote sink” would be most effective being on the southern side of Long Island rather than the northern side.

Your NYC config is really good though; mine is pretty simillar. Same goes for central NY configuration.

However as for Buffalo and Rochester, I’d argue at that point you’re actually packing Democrats more than you are Republicans, especially in Buffalo. While this may not ultimately happen as they dong have many votes to spare in the state senate, I think creating 4 D districts between Buffalo, Rochester, Ithaca, Utica, and Syracuse can be done, with only the snake between Buffalo and Rochester looking ugly. Other “cleaner” option could be split Buffalo to make a Safe D Buffalo district and a swingy one based in Niagara County

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated 23-3 NY D gerrymander. Tried to clean it up a bit, make NYC a bit more VRA safe, and shore up some more marginal districts

[patzer]

Thought I'd have another go at making my Long Island gerrymander as neat as possible. https://davesredistricting.org/join/b1b49423-bcb6-4e96-bac6-3598e2109ac7



5th and 6th are black and Asian VRA districts (44% black and 45% Asian respectively)

1st is Biden+9 in 2020, D+14 in 2016-20 composite
2nd is Biden+10 in 2020, D+18 in 2016-20 composite
3rd is Biden+9 in 2020, D+13 in 2016-20 composite
4th is Biden+10 in 2020, D+16 in 2016-20 composite

So... you've got 4 seats that are pretty safe but could conceivably fall in a landslide. Is it worth it? I don't know.