2020 New York Redistricting

[😥]

https://twitter.com/erinmdurkin/status/1454834728977289225?t=jJGzLBKgzvKuw--CkNM...

[Non Swing Voter]

CA really needs to get rid of its commission and follow NY's lead.  If NY/IL/CA all gerrymandered aggressively it would be hard for the GOP to win the house for a very long time. 

[Torie]

Here is the Dem plan submitted to the redistricting commission. Yes, you read right, the Dem plan.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6329ef89-32ea-4de1-90ff-555145410719



If the commission fails to agree to map, the legislature can draw one with a two-thirds vote (the initiative to reduce it to 60% failed big time this last Nov 2). Otherwise, the courts draw the map, just like 10 years ago.

The Dems do have a two thirds majority with no votes to spare in the NYS Senate, but only because Simcha Felder ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder ) chose to caucus with the Dems in this session. He bounces around and has caucused with the Pubs before and represents super Pub Borough Park in Brooklyn.  Heck, he might insist that a conservative Jewish CD be drawn in Brooklyn, maybe one drawn for him, like the one below right next to the Pub seat the Dems drew for the Staten Island based CD. If nothing else, the pay is better.



To sum it up, any Dem plan of a 23-3 map assuming the NYS Supremes were hackish enough to find such a map does not “unduly favor” the Dems, is dead.

[Mr.Phips]

Here is the Dem plan submitted to the redistricting commission. Yes, you read right, the Dem plan.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6329ef89-32ea-4de1-90ff-555145410719



If the commission fails to agree to map, the legislature can draw one with a two-thirds vote (the initiative to reduce it to 60% failed big time this last Nov 2). Otherwise, the courts draw the map, just like 10 years ago.

The Dems do have a two thirds majority with no votes to spare in the NYS Senate, but only because Simcha Felder ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder ) chose to caucus with the Dems in this session. He bounces around and has caucused with the Pubs before and represents super Pub Borough Park in Brooklyn.  Heck, he might insist that a conservative Jewish CD be drawn in Brooklyn, maybe one drawn for him, like the one below right next to the Pub seat the Dems drew for the Staten Island based CD. If nothing else, the pay is better.



To sum it up, any Dem plan of a 23-3 map assuming the NYS Supremes were hackish enough to find such a map does not “unduly favor” the Dems, is dead.

The Dems actually do have a seat to spare as the majority is 43-20 (rather than 42-21).  Fully agree that 23-3 won’t happen but 21-5 is probably something they are going to have to go for (basically this map with the SI seat being attached to something other than the South Brooklyn).  Dems know they need to make up for what’s being done to them in NC, OH, and likely Florida.  Theyll buy off Felder if they have to.

[Brittain33]

My money is on NY Dems going the TX Republican route, i.e. drawing something which is both unnecessarily ugly and less effective as a gerrymander than maps people have already drawn on Twitter.

[Torie]

My money is on NY Dems going the TX Republican route, i.e. drawing something which is both unnecessarily ugly and less effective as a gerrymander than maps people have already drawn on Twitter.

Remember TX does not have an unduly favor one party proscription while NYS and Ohio do. And the Supremes of both states are not unduly hackish. So I tend to doubt the accuracy of your crystal ball, and whether it be Mr. Felder or the Supremes drawing the CD map, my ball sees a conservative Jewish CD in south Brooklyn. They deserve one. They are multiplying at exponential speed.

Btw I just discovered that my great grandparents, grandparents, and my grand uncle are all etched on a tombstone in Greenwood cemetery and there is room in the family plot for three more caskets, and 4 more cremated remains. Yes, color me shocked. I had no idea. I insisted that my Dad be "buried" in the Pacific Ocean, so he ain't there. My Dad lived the first 12 years of his life in Midwood, and then after a two year stint in Florida, and another 10 years in the slums of BedStuy, before he started making some serious money, and fled to Westchester County. I am a New Yawker baby, and not as a newbie. And a WASP. Shocking no? Ha!

[Torie]

Here is the Dem plan submitted to the redistricting commission. Yes, you read right, the Dem plan.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6329ef89-32ea-4de1-90ff-555145410719



If the commission fails to agree to map, the legislature can draw one with a two-thirds vote (the initiative to reduce it to 60% failed big time this last Nov 2). Otherwise, the courts draw the map, just like 10 years ago.

The Dems do have a two thirds majority with no votes to spare in the NYS Senate, but only because Simcha Felder ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder ) chose to caucus with the Dems in this session. He bounces around and has caucused with the Pubs before and represents super Pub Borough Park in Brooklyn.  Heck, he might insist that a conservative Jewish CD be drawn in Brooklyn, maybe one drawn for him, like the one below right next to the Pub seat the Dems drew for the Staten Island based CD. If nothing else, the pay is better.



To sum it up, any Dem plan of a 23-3 map assuming the NYS Supremes were hackish enough to find such a map does not “unduly favor” the Dems, is dead.

The Dems actually do have a seat to spare as the majority is 43-20 (rather than 42-21).  Fully agree that 23-3 won’t happen but 21-5 is probably something they are going to have to go for (basically this map with the SI seat being attached to something other than the South Brooklyn).  Dems know they need to make up for what’s being done to them in NC, OH, and likely Florida.  Theyll buy off Felder if they have to.

I stand corrected. My google search unearthed stale data. Thanks. But the Dems have no margin for error, if Felder is really a Pub. Just like the US Senate! The Assembly is tight too. We live in interesting times. That said, I don't understand the Dem map. Something is going on behind the curtain. And it is sad the Dems are so intent in tanking Katko, who is one of my favorite politicians, Pub or otherwise. And I like Delgado too, who seems to potentially have been thrown under the bus, by someone.

I guess that you are assuming that the NYS Supremes are hack city. Is that correct?

[GALeftist]

My money is on NY Dems going the TX Republican route, i.e. drawing something which is both unnecessarily ugly and less effective as a gerrymander than maps people have already drawn on Twitter.

Remember TX does not have an unduly favor one party proscription while NYS and Ohio do. And the Supremes of both states are not unduly hackish. So I tend to doubt the accuracy of your crystal ball, and whether it be Mr. Felder or the Supremes drawing the CD map, my ball sees a conservative Jewish CD in south Brooklyn. They deserve one. They are multiplying at exponential speed.

Btw I just discovered that my great grandparents, grandparents, and my grand uncle are all etched on a tombstone in Greenwood cemetery and there is room in the family plot for three more caskets, and 4 more cremated remains. Yes, color me shocked. I had no idea. I insisted that my Dad be "buried" in the Pacific Ocean, so he ain't there. My Dad lived the first 12 years of his life in Midwood, and then after a two year stint in Florida, and another 10 years in the slums of BedStuy, before he started making some serious money, and fled to Westchester County. I am a New Yawker baby, and not as a newbie. And a WASP. Shocking no? Ha!

To your point about the NYS constitution and court of appeals, I believe that Oregon has a similar constitutional requirement which is not going to matter due to a combination of a 7-0 D court and the ineptitude of the state Republican Party. I believe the court of appeals is 6-1 D, so it wouldn't shock me if they, too, turn a blind eye or convince themselves it's kosher, although all the justices were appointed by Cuomo (who confusingly appointed a Republican for some reason?) so honestly who knows.

[Torie]

My money is on NY Dems going the TX Republican route, i.e. drawing something which is both unnecessarily ugly and less effective as a gerrymander than maps people have already drawn on Twitter.

Remember TX does not have an unduly favor one party proscription while NYS and Ohio do. And the Supremes of both states are not unduly hackish. So I tend to doubt the accuracy of your crystal ball, and whether it be Mr. Felder or the Supremes drawing the CD map, my ball sees a conservative Jewish CD in south Brooklyn. They deserve one. They are multiplying at exponential speed.

Btw I just discovered that my great grandparents, grandparents, and my grand uncle are all etched on a tombstone in Greenwood cemetery and there is room in the family plot for three more caskets, and 4 more cremated remains. Yes, color me shocked. I had no idea. I insisted that my Dad be "buried" in the Pacific Ocean, so he ain't there. My Dad lived the first 12 years of his life in Midwood, and then after a two year stint in Florida, and another 10 years in the slums of BedStuy, before he started making some serious money, and fled to Westchester County. I am a New Yawker baby, and not as a newbie. And a WASP. Shocking no? Ha!

To your point about the NYS constitution and court of appeals, I believe that Oregon has a similar constitutional requirement which is not going to matter due to a combination of a 7-0 D court and the ineptitude of the state Republican Party. I believe the court of appeals is 6-1 D, so it wouldn't shock me if they, too, turn a blind eye or convince themselves it's kosher, although all the justices were appointed by Cuomo (who confusingly appointed a Republican for some reason?) so honestly who knows.

Thank you. For those justices who are competent and ethical, I just can't see it, and Oregon was far more subtle than the gymnastics than what the NYS Supremes (the appellate division of the appellate court) would need to go through to get to a 21-5 map, and, oh yes, if Oregon has that law, surely someone has sued, so we don't know the outcome of that yet. If nobody sued yet, I have to question your interpretation of the law.

[Mr.Phips]

Here is the Dem plan submitted to the redistricting commission. Yes, you read right, the Dem plan.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6329ef89-32ea-4de1-90ff-555145410719



If the commission fails to agree to map, the legislature can draw one with a two-thirds vote (the initiative to reduce it to 60% failed big time this last Nov 2). Otherwise, the courts draw the map, just like 10 years ago.

The Dems do have a two thirds majority with no votes to spare in the NYS Senate, but only because Simcha Felder ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder ) chose to caucus with the Dems in this session. He bounces around and has caucused with the Pubs before and represents super Pub Borough Park in Brooklyn.  Heck, he might insist that a conservative Jewish CD be drawn in Brooklyn, maybe one drawn for him, like the one below right next to the Pub seat the Dems drew for the Staten Island based CD. If nothing else, the pay is better.



To sum it up, any Dem plan of a 23-3 map assuming the NYS Supremes were hackish enough to find such a map does not “unduly favor” the Dems, is dead.

The Dems actually do have a seat to spare as the majority is 43-20 (rather than 42-21).  Fully agree that 23-3 won’t happen but 21-5 is probably something they are going to have to go for (basically this map with the SI seat being attached to something other than the South Brooklyn).  Dems know they need to make up for what’s being done to them in NC, OH, and likely Florida.  Theyll buy off Felder if they have to.

I stand corrected. My google search unearthed stale data. Thanks. But the Dems have no margin for error, if Felder is really a Pub. Just like the US Senate! The Assembly is tight too. We live in interesting times. That said, I don't understand the Dem map. Something is going on behind the curtain. And it is sad the Dems are so intent in tanking Katko, who is one of my favorite politicians, Pub or otherwise. And I like Delgado too, who seems to potentially have been thrown under the bus, by someone.

I guess that you are assuming that the NYS Supremes are hack city. Is that correct?

Let’s put it this way, I don’t believe a court made up of a majority of appointees of a governor of one party is going to overturn a gerrymander by that party.  It’s not going to happen here and it’s not going to happen in Florida.  

Wouldn’t Delgado be in the U district?  What are the 2020 presidential results on that?

[Torie]

Here is the Dem plan submitted to the redistricting commission. Yes, you read right, the Dem plan.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6329ef89-32ea-4de1-90ff-555145410719



If the commission fails to agree to map, the legislature can draw one with a two-thirds vote (the initiative to reduce it to 60% failed big time this last Nov 2). Otherwise, the courts draw the map, just like 10 years ago.

The Dems do have a two thirds majority with no votes to spare in the NYS Senate, but only because Simcha Felder ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder ) chose to caucus with the Dems in this session. He bounces around and has caucused with the Pubs before and represents super Pub Borough Park in Brooklyn.  Heck, he might insist that a conservative Jewish CD be drawn in Brooklyn, maybe one drawn for him, like the one below right next to the Pub seat the Dems drew for the Staten Island based CD. If nothing else, the pay is better.



To sum it up, any Dem plan of a 23-3 map assuming the NYS Supremes were hackish enough to find such a map does not “unduly favor” the Dems, is dead.

The Dems actually do have a seat to spare as the majority is 43-20 (rather than 42-21).  Fully agree that 23-3 won’t happen but 21-5 is probably something they are going to have to go for (basically this map with the SI seat being attached to something other than the South Brooklyn).  Dems know they need to make up for what’s being done to them in NC, OH, and likely Florida.  Theyll buy off Felder if they have to.

I stand corrected. My google search unearthed stale data. Thanks. But the Dems have no margin for error, if Felder is really a Pub. Just like the US Senate! The Assembly is tight too. We live in interesting times. That said, I don't understand the Dem map. Something is going on behind the curtain. And it is sad the Dems are so intent in tanking Katko, who is one of my favorite politicians, Pub or otherwise. And I like Delgado too, who seems to potentially have been thrown under the bus, by someone.

I guess that you are assuming that the NYS Supremes are hack city. Is that correct?

Let’s put it this way, I don’t believe a court made up of a majority of appointees of a governor of one party is going to overturn a gerrymander by that party.  It’s not going to happen here and it’s not going to happen in Florida.  

Wouldn’t Delgado be in the U district?  What are the 2020 presidential results on that?

Yes he lives in the NW corner of Dutchess County in Reinbeck, and I guess it is Mondaire Jones
who is thrown under the bus, his CD essentially erased, with that CD that is tilt Pub an open seat, because for the Dems to squeeze out another seat upstate, particularly with Katko in the mix,  needed everything Dem everywhere within reach to execute him, including the Dem  jewel, Tompkins County. So Jones takes the hit with the loss of an upstate seat due to census data, but the Dems get it back by executing Katko, unless he runs in the open seat as a carpet bagger in almost entirely new real estate. Quite Demonic that. I need a second drink. The public square sucks, now more than ever.

I am not sure the above is accurate either. Vet it baby. Other than that Delgado lives where I said he lived.

[GALeftist]

My money is on NY Dems going the TX Republican route, i.e. drawing something which is both unnecessarily ugly and less effective as a gerrymander than maps people have already drawn on Twitter.

Remember TX does not have an unduly favor one party proscription while NYS and Ohio do. And the Supremes of both states are not unduly hackish. So I tend to doubt the accuracy of your crystal ball, and whether it be Mr. Felder or the Supremes drawing the CD map, my ball sees a conservative Jewish CD in south Brooklyn. They deserve one. They are multiplying at exponential speed.

Btw I just discovered that my great grandparents, grandparents, and my grand uncle are all etched on a tombstone in Greenwood cemetery and there is room in the family plot for three more caskets, and 4 more cremated remains. Yes, color me shocked. I had no idea. I insisted that my Dad be "buried" in the Pacific Ocean, so he ain't there. My Dad lived the first 12 years of his life in Midwood, and then after a two year stint in Florida, and another 10 years in the slums of BedStuy, before he started making some serious money, and fled to Westchester County. I am a New Yawker baby, and not as a newbie. And a WASP. Shocking no? Ha!

To your point about the NYS constitution and court of appeals, I believe that Oregon has a similar constitutional requirement which is not going to matter due to a combination of a 7-0 D court and the ineptitude of the state Republican Party. I believe the court of appeals is 6-1 D, so it wouldn't shock me if they, too, turn a blind eye or convince themselves it's kosher, although all the justices were appointed by Cuomo (who confusingly appointed a Republican for some reason?) so honestly who knows.

Thank you. For those justices who are competent and ethical, I just can't see it, and Oregon was far more subtle than the gymnastics than what the NYS Supremes (the appellate division of the appellate court) would need to go through to get to a 21-5 map, and, oh yes, if Oregon has that law, surely someone has sued, so we don't know the outcome of that yet. If nobody sued yet, I have to question your interpretation of the law.

A bunch of Oregon Republicans did sue, but the special master basically said that the map was probably good. Anyone with a brain can see that the map is gerrymandered, and therefore probably violates an Oregon law that says that “[n]o district shall be drawn for the purpose of favoring any political party, incumbent legislator or other person” as well as various parts of the state constitution, but the Republicans seem to not have a brain, because the expert they got explained it very poorly and the Democrats got a couple experts to say that you should use their highly esoteric measurement which coincidentally finds no issue to determine partisan bias instead of efficiency gap, as well as a bunch of Bend residents waxing rhapsodic about how much they have in common with Portland and a bunch of rural Oregonians saying how much they want to be in as rural (and therefore as R packed) a district as possible. It's certainly possible that the map gets struck down but I'd be very surprised.

Link to the special master's tentative findings of fact: https://www.opb.org/pdf/BREITHAUPT%20tentative%20fof_1635865838561.pdf

[Torie]

My money is on NY Dems going the TX Republican route, i.e. drawing something which is both unnecessarily ugly and less effective as a gerrymander than maps people have already drawn on Twitter.

Remember TX does not have an unduly favor one party proscription while NYS and Ohio do. And the Supremes of both states are not unduly hackish. So I tend to doubt the accuracy of your crystal ball, and whether it be Mr. Felder or the Supremes drawing the CD map, my ball sees a conservative Jewish CD in south Brooklyn. They deserve one. They are multiplying at exponential speed.

Btw I just discovered that my great grandparents, grandparents, and my grand uncle are all etched on a tombstone in Greenwood cemetery and there is room in the family plot for three more caskets, and 4 more cremated remains. Yes, color me shocked. I had no idea. I insisted that my Dad be "buried" in the Pacific Ocean, so he ain't there. My Dad lived the first 12 years of his life in Midwood, and then after a two year stint in Florida, and another 10 years in the slums of BedStuy, before he started making some serious money, and fled to Westchester County. I am a New Yawker baby, and not as a newbie. And a WASP. Shocking no? Ha!

To your point about the NYS constitution and court of appeals, I believe that Oregon has a similar constitutional requirement which is not going to matter due to a combination of a 7-0 D court and the ineptitude of the state Republican Party. I believe the court of appeals is 6-1 D, so it wouldn't shock me if they, too, turn a blind eye or convince themselves it's kosher, although all the justices were appointed by Cuomo (who confusingly appointed a Republican for some reason?) so honestly who knows.

Thank you. For those justices who are competent and ethical, I just can't see it, and Oregon was far more subtle than the gymnastics than what the NYS Supremes (the appellate division of the appellate court) would need to go through to get to a 21-5 map, and, oh yes, if Oregon has that law, surely someone has sued, so we don't know the outcome of that yet. If nobody sued yet, I have to question your interpretation of the law.

A bunch of Oregon Republicans did sue, but the special master basically said that the map was probably good. Anyone with a brain can see that the map is gerrymandered, and therefore probably violates an Oregon law that says that “[n]o district shall be drawn for the purpose of favoring any political party, incumbent legislator or other person” as well as various parts of the state constitution, but the Republicans seem to not have a brain, because the expert they got explained it very poorly and the Democrats got a couple experts to say that you should use their highly esoteric measurement which coincidentally finds no issue to determine partisan bias instead of efficiency gap, as well as a bunch of Bend residents waxing rhapsodic about how much they have in common with Portland and a bunch of rural Oregonians saying how much they want to be in as rural (and therefore as R packed) a district as possible. It's certainly possible that the map gets struck down but I'd be very surprised.

Link to the special master's tentative findings of fact: https://www.opb.org/pdf/BREITHAUPT%20tentative%20fof_1635865838561.pdf

I await the court decision with interest. Is it before the high court in the state, or a lower court? Mirror mirror on the wall, how many justices will sell their soul for next to nothing at all?


Oh yes, thank you for your high effort response, in an environment, here, there and everywhere,  that prefers the low effort sand box. When my body went to hell, it was as if so goes the Torie, so goes the planet. But what was left in Pandora's box was my life, at least for a bit, as perhaps the substitute for hope. Better it was the planet than me of course.

Addendum: I notice that the 538 redistricting tracker has on ignore the "unduly favor" proscription, and commented upon that at its site. They seem to assume the Pubs in Florida and the Dems in NYS can do whatever the F they want, and will.

[Brittain33]

Are there any examples where a Democratic court has fixed a Democratic gerrymander? We have a number of cases where a Dem court fixed a Republican gerrymander, and we know it’s unlikely a Republican court would fix a Republican gerrymander. It seems like Oregon was an example of a Dem court declining to fix a gerrymander.

This doesn’t mean NY won’t be different, but I don’t know if it’s happened.

[Torie]

Are there any examples where a Democratic court has fixed a Democratic gerrymander? We have a number of cases where a Dem court fixed a Republican gerrymander, and we know it’s unlikely a Republican court would fix a Republican gerrymander. It seems like Oregon was an example of a Dem court declining to fix a gerrymander.

This doesn’t mean NY won’t be different, but I don’t know if it’s happened.

Most states do not have the "unduly favor" proscription in their state constitution that constrains what the legislature can draw.  It seems to have constrained some what the Dems, some of whom are Dem legislative appointments, on the NYS redistricting commission are doing. Frankly, I don't think the pundits, including those at 538, and including the NYS governor are mouthing, are either familiar or have seriously  grappled with this issue. It's all been dumbed down.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Are there any examples where a Democratic court has fixed a Democratic gerrymander? We have a number of cases where a Dem court fixed a Republican gerrymander, and we know it’s unlikely a Republican court would fix a Republican gerrymander. It seems like Oregon was an example of a Dem court declining to fix a gerrymander.

This doesn’t mean NY won’t be different, but I don’t know if it’s happened.

Most states do not have the "unduly favor" proscription in their state constitution that constrains what the legislature can draw.  It seems to have constrained some what the Dems, some of whom are Dem legislative appointments, on the NYS redistricting commission are doing. Frankly, I don't think the pundits, including those at 538, and including the NYS governor are mouthing, are either familiar or have seriously  grappled with this issue. It's all been dumbed down.

As someone else has pointed out earlier in the thread, that is a pretty vague requirement open to interpretation. Maybe for instance a Dem bias, at least on the Congressional is what's fair because the Republican bias elsewhere needs to be cancelled out on the national level, and if NY doesn't gerrymander the overall picture is unfair. There def is a chance both FL and NY SC overturn gerrymanders likely to be done, but I'd be surprised at best.

I would argue that in FL there's prolly gonna be a stronger case because there's a greater chance a gerrymander will actually mess with COIs racially, though the FL SC def leans right whereas unless Dems mess with Long Island too much, that shouldn't be an issue with an NY gerry. Heck, Dems could even include a opportunity district that connects the black parts of Buffalo and Rochester as part of their gerrymander, call it a "Minority Opportunity" seat, and the rest of the map falls into place from that.

[kwabbit]

I don't think 23-3 is very realistic at this point. The Democrats might be apprehensive to draw such a radical gerrymander given the commission and all the safeguards against it. Not to mention the possibility of a huge dummymander in 2022.

When I was drawing my 23-3 map, my goal was to ensure each district was Biden +10 in Upstate NY. That in itself was difficult. But now it seems that most Biden +10 seats would be marginal in Upstate NY, given the horrible approvals Biden has among White voters without a degree. I think 21-5 would easily be fine however, and probably 22-4.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't think 23-3 is very realistic at this point. The Democrats might be apprehensive to draw such a radical gerrymander given the commission and all the safeguards against it. Not to mention the possibility of a huge dummymander in 2022.

When I was drawing my 23-3 map, my goal was to ensure each district was Biden +10 in Upstate NY. That in itself was difficult. But now it seems that most Biden +10 seats would be marginal in Upstate NY, given the horrible approvals Biden has among White voters without a degree. I think 21-5 would easily be fine however, and probably 22-4.

I personally find dealing with Long Island is the hardest problem, especially since the politics are weird and Dem voters on the island tend to be packed while making a true R pack is nearly impossible. 2 R sinks in upstate with everything else being at least Biden + 15 seems pretty realistic; Dems goal in redistricting should be to get as many reliable seats in a D + 0 environment, not an R + 8 in which case the House is going to be a lost cause anyways. Even in 2022 I would think most Biden + 15 seats would hold except for the one Katko runs in.

[kwabbit]

I don't think 23-3 is very realistic at this point. The Democrats might be apprehensive to draw such a radical gerrymander given the commission and all the safeguards against it. Not to mention the possibility of a huge dummymander in 2022.

When I was drawing my 23-3 map, my goal was to ensure each district was Biden +10 in Upstate NY. That in itself was difficult. But now it seems that most Biden +10 seats would be marginal in Upstate NY, given the horrible approvals Biden has among White voters without a degree. I think 21-5 would easily be fine however, and probably 22-4.

I personally find dealing with Long Island is the hardest problem, especially since the politics are weird and Dem voters on the island tend to be packed while making a true R pack is nearly impossible. 2

Long Island is hard to gerrymander by virtue of its shape. There's no singular area of dominance so packs are harder. I'm not sure if you can draw only one Republican district and have the rest be sure to hold in 2022. At least not unless you spaghettify Queens, which is an option, but would be difficult to do without upsetting Meng and Meeks.

[_.]

Damn you all were saying my Staten Island split was a Republican gerrymander

In reality it's starting to look like that map favored the Democrats lol

[patzer]

It's ridiculously easy to make a sensible Staten Island/Brooklyn map that's all safe D though, if they give away any seats there it'll be because they want to cede them to Republicans.

[lfromnj]

Yeah the thing is about Williamsburg , is that literally nobody besides AOC who is all the way in the Bronx actually wants those Crane Husband progressives so you might as well dump him with Staten Island.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah the thing is about Williamsburg , is that literally nobody besides AOC who is all the way in the Bronx actually wants those Crane Husband progressives so you might as well dump him with Staten Island.

Is it possible to dump most of Williamsburg in NY-11?

[lfromnj]

Yeah the thing is about Williamsburg , is that literally nobody besides AOC who is all the way in the Bronx actually wants those Crane Husband progressives so you might as well dump him with Staten Island.

Is it possible to dump most of Williamsburg in NY-11?

Probably not as far as there, mostly to Dumbo. Nadler and Maloney still need to expand out so Manhattan can keep 3 districts.  But the point stands, just let these annoying progressive primary voters have a district where they control the dem primary rather than keep giving scares to everyone.

IIRC Staten Island Dems do want Coney Island and areas where it makes more D but still winnable in the primary for a Staten Island Dem. However the issue is their concerns are the weakest as the weakest borough.

[kwabbit]

A little fair map of NY, in a thread all about gerrymandering.









Some unique things I did:

Extending NY-05 into the Black areas of Hempstead, then swung NY-04 into the Whiter area of Queens.

Drawing a Southeast Brooklyn district. This district could function as a Orthodox Jewish opportunity district, which I think could be argued as necessary under VRA guidelines but that's a whole other question. I think this district should be part of a fair map. Just because the existing Manhattan-mander into Jewish Brooklyn has been around for a decade and functions as the status-quo doesn't mean it's a good district or fair and proper.

Correspondingly, I didn't expand the South Brooklyn district westward enough where the Staten Island takes in that much of Park Slope, where it can drowned out. It's still a Staten Island based-district, that is, not a Hipster + Staten Island tacked on.

The rest is quite generic. I extend the Upper Hudson district to the Plattsburgh area, so the Northeast seat (Stefanik's) doesn't really exist, although I didn't consider incumbents at all.




If the images take up too much space I'll delete and replace with the VRA link.